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The Mind of a Fox
By Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter
Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Decisions
Rules of the GameScenarios
Key Uncertainties
Options
Explaining the model
1. If you know the Rules of the Game, you can build
intelligent scenarios. The more scenarios you can build the
better you will be prepared.
2. In the scenario, try to identify the Key Uncertainties that
you should be prepared for.
3. Scenarios throw up Options based on which you can take
Decisions.
Scenario planning is not foreseeing the future
Remember
1. Choice ≠ Option
2. Scenario ≠ Prediction
3. Success is a result of considering different
scenarios and exercising the best option
What matters is not what you want to do
but what you can do
Choice is not Option
1. If you go into a shop, the Choices you have are all the
things that the shop contains.
2. But your Options are limited by how much money you
have in your pocket, or the credit you can get.
3. Similarly a Scenario tells you what may happen. It is not a
Prediction to say that it WILL happen.
4. But it gives you the possibility to look at all that can
happen given a certain set of circumstances or conditions.
Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Strengths
OpportunitiesThreats
Weaknesses
Reflection
1. Please create your own Control/Certainty matrix
and analyze your own career and reflect on what
you would do to increase your options
20 minutes
Being ‘rich’ is to have more options
Not to have more possessions
Possessions limit options
1. If you have real estate property in one land it limits
the number of places you can live in.
2. Or a cushy job may limit your risk taking to seek
challenging assignments that can potentially
enhance your development.
3. Please reflect on your careers and see how you can
enhance your options.
Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Control Freaks
FatalistsDice Rollers
Fence – Sitters
How to get the Most
1. This process is the cornerstone to success in
anything you do (personally, professionally, or for
your business)
2. Realize that it IS a PROCESS
3. Understanding that YOU are the KEY
Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Strengths
OpportunitiesThreats
Weaknesses
Career
1. Using your understanding of the Control/Certainty
matrix please analyze your own career and reflect
on what you would do
2. Please create your own Control/Certainty matrix
and see what options you have to exercise
20 minutes
Core
StarsDogs
Non-Core
Keep
?Sell or Shut
?
Business
1. Using your understanding of the Control/Certainty
matrix please analyze your business and present
what you would do
2. Please work in your groups and present to the
plenary
30 minutes

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Scenario planning

Editor's Notes

  1. Facilitator: There are two elements in the model: Certainty and Control. These give us 4 possibilities.
  2. Facilitator: Explain the matrix: Then say, ‘If you know the Rules of the Game, you can build intelligent scenarios. The more scenarios you can build the better you will be prepared. In the scenario, try to identify the Key Uncertainties that you should be prepared for. Scenarios throw up Options based on which you can take Decisions.
  3. Facilitator: Explain to them the difference between a Choice and an Option. For example if you go into a shop, the Choices you have are all the things that the shop contains. But your Options are limited by how much money you have in your pocket, or the credit you can get to buy what you want. Similarly a Scenario tells you what may happen. It is not a Prediction to say that it WILL happen. But it gives you the possibility to look at all that can happen given a certain set of circumstances or conditions.
  4. Facilitator: Explain to them how their SWOT can be fitted into this model.
  5. Facilitator: Lead a discussion on how many a time, possessions limit options. For example if you have real estate property in one land it limits the number of places you can live in. Or a cushy job may limit your risk taking to seek challenging assignments that can potentially enhance your development. Now ask people to reflect on their own careers and see how they can enhance their options.