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Scenario planning by Mirza Yawar Baig
The document discusses scenario planning and how to increase options. It introduces a control/certainty matrix to analyze different scenarios based on what is known and unknown. The key points are: 1) Scenario planning considers different possibilities rather than predicting the future, in order to identify options and make decisions. 2) Choosing options is different than making predictions - a scenario outlines what could happen, not what will. 3) Exercising the best option leads to success, which comes from considering different scenarios, not necessarily getting what you want.
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- 1. The Mind ofa Fox By Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter
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- 3. Control CertaintyUncertainty No Control Decisions Rules ofthe GameScenarios Key Uncertainties Options
- 4. Explaining the model 1.If you know the Rules of the Game, you can build intelligent scenarios. The more scenarios you can build the better you will be prepared. 2. In the scenario, try to identify the Key Uncertainties that you should be prepared for. 3. Scenarios throw up Options based on which you can take Decisions. Scenario planning is not foreseeing the future
- 5. Remember 1. Choice ≠Option 2. Scenario ≠ Prediction 3. Success is a result of considering different scenarios and exercising the best option What matters is not what you want to do but what you can do
- 6. Choice is notOption 1. If you go into a shop, the Choices you have are all the things that the shop contains. 2. But your Options are limited by how much money you have in your pocket, or the credit you can get. 3. Similarly a Scenario tells you what may happen. It is not a Prediction to say that it WILL happen. 4. But it gives you the possibility to look at all that can happen given a certain set of circumstances or conditions.
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- 8. Reflection 1. Please createyour own Control/Certainty matrix and analyze your own career and reflect on what you would do to increase your options 20 minutes Being ‘rich’ is to have more options Not to have more possessions
- 9. Possessions limit options 1.If you have real estate property in one land it limits the number of places you can live in. 2. Or a cushy job may limit your risk taking to seek challenging assignments that can potentially enhance your development. 3. Please reflect on your careers and see how you can enhance your options.
- 10. Control CertaintyUncertainty No Control Control Freaks FatalistsDiceRollers Fence – Sitters
- 11. How to getthe Most 1. This process is the cornerstone to success in anything you do (personally, professionally, or for your business) 2. Realize that it IS a PROCESS 3. Understanding that YOU are the KEY
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- 13. Career 1. Using yourunderstanding of the Control/Certainty matrix please analyze your own career and reflect on what you would do 2. Please create your own Control/Certainty matrix and see what options you have to exercise 20 minutes
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- 15. Business 1. Using yourunderstanding of the Control/Certainty matrix please analyze your business and present what you would do 2. Please work in your groups and present to the plenary 30 minutes
Editor's Notes
- #3 Facilitator: There are two elements in the model: Certainty and Control. These give us 4 possibilities.
- #4 Facilitator: Explain the matrix: Then say, ‘If you know the Rules of the Game, you can build intelligent scenarios. The more scenarios you can build the better you will be prepared. In the scenario, try to identify the Key Uncertainties that you should be prepared for. Scenarios throw up Options based on which you can take Decisions.
- #6 Facilitator: Explain to them the difference between a Choice and an Option. For example if you go into a shop, the Choices you have are all the things that the shop contains. But your Options are limited by how much money you have in your pocket, or the credit you can get to buy what you want. Similarly a Scenario tells you what may happen. It is not a Prediction to say that it WILL happen. But it gives you the possibility to look at all that can happen given a certain set of circumstances or conditions.
- #8 Facilitator: Explain to them how their SWOT can be fitted into this model.
- #9 Facilitator: Lead a discussion on how many a time, possessions limit options. For example if you have real estate property in one land it limits the number of places you can live in. Or a cushy job may limit your risk taking to seek challenging assignments that can potentially enhance your development. Now ask people to reflect on their own careers and see how they can enhance their options.