Developing a good practice guide on travel forecasting
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This document discusses developing good practice guidelines for travel forecasting. It reviews literature on forecast accuracy and sources of inaccuracy. Common issues identified include inconsistent practices around factors like induced traffic and assumptions about fuel prices. The document recommends guidelines including using an unbiased core scenario without speculative proposals, conducting sensitivity tests, and increasing transparency. It proposes alternative scenarios that test forecasts being +/- a percentage based on years since the base year. Overall the document examines challenges with travel forecasting and proposes recommendations to improve practices and address uncertainties.
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- Challenges included balancing parking needs with creating an attractive public realm, while ensuring
Ingrid Hunt - Traffic control device approval
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David Hayes - Robust decision making
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Paul Steely White Plenary
Congressman Anthony Weiner told Mayor Bloomberg during a recent dinner that if he became mayor, his first year would be spent tearing out the city's bike lanes in a series of ribbon-cutting events. While bicycle ridership in New York City has massively increased over the past decade, fatalities in bike collisions have remained fairly constant, indicating that cycling is now safer than in previous years. Advocates argue that a safe systems approach focusing on systemic and normative changes can further reduce bike collisions and achieve the goal of zero traffic deaths, rather than blaming human error.
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AITPM Conference Presentation - Casper Baum
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AITPM Conference Presentation - David Sanders
This document discusses managing deliveries in busy city centers. It notes that increasing populations, demand, and congestion are placing constraints on delivery infrastructure. Left uncontrolled, delivery traffic can swarm cities like traffic. However, the document proposes that delivery traffic can be managed like ant trails through a system called MobileDOCK. MobileDOCK allows carriers to book loading zones and dock spaces in advance. It provides visibility of deliveries and reduces dwell times and congestion. The system benefits carriers, receivers, and cities by coordinating deliveries.
AITPM Conference Presentation - Willem Deddam
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AITPM Conference Presentation - Nicole Lockwood
The Westport Project aims to develop an integrated strategy to meet freight transport and trade logistics needs for Perth and the South West region for the next 50-100 years in a sustainable manner. The Westport Taskforce will formulate a strategy to optimize existing land and infrastructure to encourage industry expansion while protecting the environment. The strategy will aim to maximize economic growth, jobs, and investment for Western Australia by supporting industries like resources, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and defense. A two-year consultation and research process will develop the strategy without making final decisions yet. Sustainability, stakeholder engagement, and independent review will be priorities throughout the process.
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Mysore WhatsApp group:- https://chat.whatsapp.com/EhqtHtCC75vCAX7gaO842N
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Chapter-1
Introduction to objective, scope and outcome the subject
Chapter 2
Introduction: Scope and Specialization of Civil Engineering, Role of civil Engineer in Society, Impact of infrastructural development on economy of country.
Chapter 3
Surveying: Object Principles & Types of Surveying; Site Plans, Plans & Maps; Scales & Unit of different Measurements.
Linear Measurements: Instruments used. Linear Measurement by Tape, Ranging out Survey Lines and overcoming Obstructions; Measurements on sloping ground; Tape corrections, conventional symbols. Angular Measurements: Instruments used; Introduction to Compass Surveying, Bearings and Longitude & Latitude of a Line, Introduction to total station.
Levelling: Instrument used Object of levelling, Methods of levelling in brief, and Contour maps.
Chapter 4
Buildings: Selection of site for Buildings, Layout of Building Plan, Types of buildings, Plinth area, carpet area, floor space index, Introduction to building byelaws, concept of sun light & ventilation. Components of Buildings & their functions, Basic concept of R.C.C., Introduction to types of foundation
Chapter 5
Transportation: Introduction to Transportation Engineering; Traffic and Road Safety: Types and Characteristics of Various Modes of Transportation; Various Road Traffic Signs, Causes of Accidents and Road Safety Measures.
Chapter 6
Environmental Engineering: Environmental Pollution, Environmental Acts and Regulations, Functional Concepts of Ecology, Basics of Species, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Hydrological Cycle; Chemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen & Phosphorus; Energy Flow in Ecosystems.
Water Pollution: Water Quality standards, Introduction to Treatment & Disposal of Waste Water. Reuse and Saving of Water, Rain Water Harvesting. Solid Waste Management: Classification of Solid Waste, Collection, Transportation and Disposal of Solid. Recycling of Solid Waste: Energy Recovery, Sanitary Landfill, On-Site Sanitation. Air & Noise Pollution: Primary and Secondary air pollutants, Harmful effects of Air Pollution, Control of Air Pollution. . Noise Pollution Harmful Effects of noise pollution, control of noise pollution, Global warming & Climate Change, Ozone depletion, Greenhouse effect
Text Books:
1. Palancharmy, Basic Civil Engineering, McGraw Hill publishers.
2. Satheesh Gopi, Basic Civil Engineering, Pearson Publishers.
3. Ketki Rangwala Dalal, Essentials of Civil Engineering, Charotar Publishing House.
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- 1. Developing a Good Practice Guide on Travel Forecasting Ian Clark
- 2. • “It cannot be assumed that there is only one viable forecast of travel” • NZ Transport Agency post implementation reviews • 2015 NZMUGS and AITPM conferences: uncertainty around forecasting Background
- 3. Literature Review • How accurate are forecasts? • What are the main sources of inaccuracy? • The way ahead
- 4. Sources of Inaccuracy (Highways England, 2015) Higher Lower Routing assumptions 58% 6% Background growth assumptions 17% 50% Land use issues 17% 18% Other highway schemes 8% 18% Modelling accuracy 0% 9% Total 100% 100%
- 5. Sources of Inaccuracy (Flyvbjerg, 2005) % of Rail Projects % of Road Projects Trip Generation 11% 27% Land Use Development 1% 26% Trip Distribution 29% 23% Forecasting Model 10% 22% Deliberately slanted forecast 25% 0% Opening delay/service reliability 4% 0% Design change 1% 0% Not identified - 1% Other 19% 0%
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- 8. Good Practice • Alternative scenarios: • P times the square root of the number of years after the base year (For highway schemes P = 2.5%) • For example, – Base year 2015 – Forecast year 2031 – Test +/- 10%
- 9. Discussion (1) • Toll roads • Conservatism • Transparency • Optimism bias • Length of forecast – Inaccuracy • New technology • Looking back and forward
- 10. Discussion (2) • Trip generation • Risk • Cost • Dependency on modelling • Complexity • Justification based on growth?
- 11. Recommendations • Transparency • Sensitivity tests • Greater consistency required
- 12. Questions?