Autonomous Vehicles - Impacts and OpportunitiesPeter Shannon
Autonomous vehicles can evolve to impact society in profound ways by challenging assumptions we have lived by for generations. This presentation (and the discussion it supports) will explore the new opportunities as well as the challenges of autonomous vehicles, from how they will impact individuals’ lives during early adoption to how they will remake the urban cityscape in the long term. We will explore the technology’s impact on the concepts of vehicle ownership, parking, travel planning, and other parts of our lives shaped today around humans at the wheel, as well as practical challenges to realizing the long term opportunities.
Autonomous cars, car sharing and electric vehiclesAnandRaoPwC
Talk presented at the second Autonomous Cars conference hosted by SwissRe in Armonk, NY on September 24, 2015. The talk covers the interaction between car sharing, autonomous cars and electric vehicles and how the feedback between these three areas will propel greater consumer adoption.
Introduction to Connected Cars and Autonomous VehiclesBill Harpley
This is the first of two lectures which were given to students and academic staff at the University of Portsmouth on March 28th 2017. It provides a broad overview of the technical and public policy challenges faced by the automotive industry.
The disruptive rippling effect of technologyAli Anani, PhD
The presentation highlights by example the effect of disruptive technologies on businesses and works. The presentation shows there is a new balance emerging between more is less and more is more. The presentation anticipates the emergence of disruptive Blue Ocean Strategy and the rationale behind this thinking.
Advertising Trends in Outdoor Advertising - 30 cities in India : April - June...Harjaap Singh Mann
Out of Home advertising trends, OOH, covering billboards / hoardings, bus queue shelters, unipoles etc from across 30 cities in India. It shows the Share of Voice (SOV) for various Industries and categories like FMCG, BFSI, Automobiles etc. See who were the top brands this quarter. Was your brand visible in the Real World !!
Autonomous Vehicles - Impacts and OpportunitiesPeter Shannon
Autonomous vehicles can evolve to impact society in profound ways by challenging assumptions we have lived by for generations. This presentation (and the discussion it supports) will explore the new opportunities as well as the challenges of autonomous vehicles, from how they will impact individuals’ lives during early adoption to how they will remake the urban cityscape in the long term. We will explore the technology’s impact on the concepts of vehicle ownership, parking, travel planning, and other parts of our lives shaped today around humans at the wheel, as well as practical challenges to realizing the long term opportunities.
Autonomous cars, car sharing and electric vehiclesAnandRaoPwC
Talk presented at the second Autonomous Cars conference hosted by SwissRe in Armonk, NY on September 24, 2015. The talk covers the interaction between car sharing, autonomous cars and electric vehicles and how the feedback between these three areas will propel greater consumer adoption.
Introduction to Connected Cars and Autonomous VehiclesBill Harpley
This is the first of two lectures which were given to students and academic staff at the University of Portsmouth on March 28th 2017. It provides a broad overview of the technical and public policy challenges faced by the automotive industry.
The disruptive rippling effect of technologyAli Anani, PhD
The presentation highlights by example the effect of disruptive technologies on businesses and works. The presentation shows there is a new balance emerging between more is less and more is more. The presentation anticipates the emergence of disruptive Blue Ocean Strategy and the rationale behind this thinking.
Advertising Trends in Outdoor Advertising - 30 cities in India : April - June...Harjaap Singh Mann
Out of Home advertising trends, OOH, covering billboards / hoardings, bus queue shelters, unipoles etc from across 30 cities in India. It shows the Share of Voice (SOV) for various Industries and categories like FMCG, BFSI, Automobiles etc. See who were the top brands this quarter. Was your brand visible in the Real World !!
Relying on the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI)’s 2019 Top Industry Issues report, Mr. Murray discussed critical issues in the trucking industry and how they impact both carriers and consumers.
Presentation by Jan-Dirk Schmöcker of of Kyoto University. Delivered at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), 27 November 2014.
http://trans.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/its/Schmoecker.html
What if we could signpost the road to Net Zero?Laverne12
The world must decarbonise, but how quickly does each company need to? That’s the part that has left many of us scratching our heads.
What if we could signpost the future to predict the rate at which we should #decarbonise? How can scenario planning with signposting turn us into predictors of possible futures rather than solvers of the past?
Lukas Neckermann's Presentation at the Dubai World Congress for Self Driving Vehicles 2019.
Presentation of the study results: Being Driven.
Neckermann Strategic Advisors
Being Driven
We introduce proven Strategic Roadmapping techniques that enable strategic thinkers to envision breakthrough innovation opportunities through the lens of market insights and user experience.
In the largest global survey to date dedicated to self-driving vehicles to date, The World Economic Forum, in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group, polled more than 5,500 consumers in ten countries and 25 city policy makers to gain a deeper understanding of consumer sentiment about the future of automobiles and provide unique insights into the adoption of SDVs by consumers, and the support of SDVs by policy makers, in cities worldwide.
This presentation will discuss the difficult regulatory issues surrounding introducing self-driving cars onto our roadways. Many novel questions will be discussed, such as how to allocate liability for an autonomous vehicle, the self-driving cars’ impact on public transportation and infrastructure, and personal privacy concerns.
Automotive social media platform market research Street Formation.comSlideSigma
Street Formation is undoubtedly , the most game changing platform being introduced into the automotive industry. This platform will be released globally, fully laced with various innovative features and concepts to make our adrenaline filled passion a much more interesting one to be apart of. Street Formation is using modern day technologies to their full potential, allowing us to experience things that are currently nonexistent. We have built this platform with unmatched creativity. The automotive niche is one with many colors, personalities, and characters, many of these being displayed through out vehicle. The goal is to unite the industry on a global scale. While also connecting users near each other. We are bringing the emotion back that once roamed the car scene, and creating new ones in ways you can not even imagine.
Beneficiaries of an optimally designed transportation system Tristan Wiggill
Presented by Mr. Francois Meyer, General Manager Long-Term Planning, Transnet SOC Ltd during the Roads and Economy Transport Forum held on 14 February 2019.
Mobility & Climate : Eco-metrics to reduce of Carbone Dioxide. Seock-Jin HONG, Professor of Supply Chain and Transport, Kedge School in Bordeaux
For the second year, the EIGSI General Engineering School organizes in La Rochelle, France, a high quality forum focused on interregional mobility in the Atlantic Area.
La Rochelle Mobility Forum is part of a 4 high quality forum cycle. Climatlantic is a project co‐funded by INTERREG IVB ATLANTIC AREA Programme,aimed at developing an Atlantic Strategic Agenda for Sustainable Urban Development and the reduction of the Carbon Footprint covering four main pillars: mobility, energy, territorial management and social behavior.
Relying on the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI)’s 2019 Top Industry Issues report, Mr. Murray discussed critical issues in the trucking industry and how they impact both carriers and consumers.
Presentation by Jan-Dirk Schmöcker of of Kyoto University. Delivered at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), 27 November 2014.
http://trans.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/its/Schmoecker.html
What if we could signpost the road to Net Zero?Laverne12
The world must decarbonise, but how quickly does each company need to? That’s the part that has left many of us scratching our heads.
What if we could signpost the future to predict the rate at which we should #decarbonise? How can scenario planning with signposting turn us into predictors of possible futures rather than solvers of the past?
Lukas Neckermann's Presentation at the Dubai World Congress for Self Driving Vehicles 2019.
Presentation of the study results: Being Driven.
Neckermann Strategic Advisors
Being Driven
We introduce proven Strategic Roadmapping techniques that enable strategic thinkers to envision breakthrough innovation opportunities through the lens of market insights and user experience.
In the largest global survey to date dedicated to self-driving vehicles to date, The World Economic Forum, in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group, polled more than 5,500 consumers in ten countries and 25 city policy makers to gain a deeper understanding of consumer sentiment about the future of automobiles and provide unique insights into the adoption of SDVs by consumers, and the support of SDVs by policy makers, in cities worldwide.
This presentation will discuss the difficult regulatory issues surrounding introducing self-driving cars onto our roadways. Many novel questions will be discussed, such as how to allocate liability for an autonomous vehicle, the self-driving cars’ impact on public transportation and infrastructure, and personal privacy concerns.
Automotive social media platform market research Street Formation.comSlideSigma
Street Formation is undoubtedly , the most game changing platform being introduced into the automotive industry. This platform will be released globally, fully laced with various innovative features and concepts to make our adrenaline filled passion a much more interesting one to be apart of. Street Formation is using modern day technologies to their full potential, allowing us to experience things that are currently nonexistent. We have built this platform with unmatched creativity. The automotive niche is one with many colors, personalities, and characters, many of these being displayed through out vehicle. The goal is to unite the industry on a global scale. While also connecting users near each other. We are bringing the emotion back that once roamed the car scene, and creating new ones in ways you can not even imagine.
Beneficiaries of an optimally designed transportation system Tristan Wiggill
Presented by Mr. Francois Meyer, General Manager Long-Term Planning, Transnet SOC Ltd during the Roads and Economy Transport Forum held on 14 February 2019.
Mobility & Climate : Eco-metrics to reduce of Carbone Dioxide. Seock-Jin HONG, Professor of Supply Chain and Transport, Kedge School in Bordeaux
For the second year, the EIGSI General Engineering School organizes in La Rochelle, France, a high quality forum focused on interregional mobility in the Atlantic Area.
La Rochelle Mobility Forum is part of a 4 high quality forum cycle. Climatlantic is a project co‐funded by INTERREG IVB ATLANTIC AREA Programme,aimed at developing an Atlantic Strategic Agenda for Sustainable Urban Development and the reduction of the Carbon Footprint covering four main pillars: mobility, energy, territorial management and social behavior.
Embracing GenAI - A Strategic ImperativePeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
Safalta Digital marketing institute in Noida, provide complete applications that encompass a huge range of virtual advertising and marketing additives, which includes search engine optimization, virtual communication advertising, pay-per-click on marketing, content material advertising, internet analytics, and greater. These university courses are designed for students who possess a comprehensive understanding of virtual marketing strategies and attributes.Safalta Digital Marketing Institute in Noida is a first choice for young individuals or students who are looking to start their careers in the field of digital advertising. The institute gives specialized courses designed and certification.
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2. 13 August 2015
“The Commanding General is well aware that the
forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for
planning purposes.”
Memo to Ken Arrow after his warnings on the
unreliability of forecasts.
3. Introduction
Forecasts are always wrong. Sometimes they’re right but only luckily. Nassim
Nicholas Taleb
• Risks in Errors
– Model
– The Future
– Us
Forecast Horizon Existing Road New Road
Next Day ±7.5%
1 Year ±12.5% ±17.5%
5 Years ±20% ±27.5%
20 Years ±42.5% ±47.5%
Bain’s survey
4. Forecasting Without A Model
1
Parramatta
2
Chatswood,
North Sydney
3
Wasteland,
Cowboys
4
CBD,
Airports
8 lanes 4 lanes
• Population in 1985
• Hh = Pop / Size
• Trips = Rate * Hh
• In cars = ms*trips
• Cars = In Cars /Occ
• Veh = Cars + Com
• Split into Cells
• Calc 2 to 4 + 4 to 2
• Factor up to 2015
• Share between
Bridge and Tunnel
5. The Devil In the Detail
“There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing.” Robert Burns, poet
This Link
This Intersection
8. Saving Money Wastes Money
"An unsophisticated forecaster uses models as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for
support rather than for illumination.” after Andrew Lang
10. Errors Compounded
“Any man whose errors take ten years to correct is quite a man” J
Robert Oppenheimer, Physicist
11. The Future
• “I have seen the future and it is like the present, only
longer.” Kehlogg Albran
• “I have seen the future and it doesn't work.” Robert Fulford
12. Searching for the Past
Forecasting is like driving along an unknown road, in the dark, looking
out the back window. Peter de Vries, New Yorker
17. JOMET - Forecast v Actual
Forecast
(2005)
Estimated*
(2005)
Error
(%)
Population 4,695 5,520 -15%
Employment 1,167 1,164 0%
* From Johannesburg City Council estimates
Forecasts of inputs for the JOMET area
compared to the outcomes in thousands
Forecast
(2005)
Actual
(2002)
Estimated
(2005)
Error
(%)
Car 621,000 581,000 610,400 -2%
Public
Transport
558,000 510,900 552,300 -1%
Forecasts of morning peak trips for the JOMET
area compared to the outcomes
20. Sydney Area Transport Study
Forecast
(2000)
Actual
(2001)
Error
(%)
Population 4,286 3755 14%
Employment 1,910 1,820 5%
Forecasts of inputs for the Sydney
metropolitan area compared to the
outcomes
Forecast
(2000)
Actual
(2001)
Error
(%)
Home Based 9,878 9,000 10%
Non Home Based 1,273 4,154 -69%
Total 11,151 13,154 -15%
Forecasts of daily trips in the Sydney Area
Transport Study compared to the outcomes in
thousands
21. Sydney Area Transport Study
Forecast
(2000)
Actual
(2001)
Error
(%)
Manufacture 550 208 164%
Commerce/Finance/Property 458 470 -3%
Services/Public Service 615 843 -27%
Transport/Communication 134 145 -8%
Building/Construction 115 139 -17%
Other 38 15 153%
Total 1910 1820 5%
Forecasts of employment by industry
compared to the outcomes
Forecast
(2000)
Actual
(2001)
Error
(%)
Office 892 735 21%
Industrial 580 342 70%
Transportation and
Communication
95 301 -68%
Sales and Service 305 348 -12%
Other 38 94 -60%
Total 1910 1820 5%
Forecasts of employment by industry
compared to the outcomes
27. What they did right
• Forecast at an aggregate level
• Used models as a means to an end, not an end
• Asked the models the right questions
• Used sensitivities and/or multiple models
• Modern models are under greater expectations
Far better an approximate answer to
the right question, which is often
vague, than an exact answer to the
wrong question, which can always be
made precise. John W Tukey
28. The Problem With US
Submission to Infrastructure Australia’s Symposium into
Traffic Forecasting for Toll Roads
“The real issue here is that it if a developer wants to take an optimistic view of the future
and ask his traffic advisor to prepare forecasts on the basis of these optimistic
assumptions, it is not the fault of the advisor that the forecasts are ‘high’”.
Flyvbjerg
“… planners lie with numbers. Planners on the dark side are busy, not with getting forecasts
right and following an ethical path, but with getting projects funded and built. The most
effective planner is sometimes the one who can cloak advocacy in the guise of scientific or
technical rationality.”
Bain
“To knowingly inflate traffic and revenue projections is an act of deception – but it is
not alone in that regard. Investors reviewing toll road studies should remain alert to
two other potential acts of deceit.”
30. Is there a “right” forecast?
No! Forecasts need to be tailored to a purpose
– high for impact assessment
– low for CBA
– high for owners to win a PPP deal
– low for lenders
32. •Looking for a Practitioner’s Remedy
•Forecasts are not just reasonable but SEEN to be reasonable
•Provides alternative outcomes forecasting
•Understand the mechanics of the different models in order to forecast
successfully
•A way to understand more deeply the complex interactions that
contribute to transport demand in the future
A Solution
"You don't drown by falling in the water; you
drown by staying there."
Edwin Louis Cole
40. Summary
• Models
– Trip Distribution
– Asking too much
– Using inappropriately
• Future
– Not such a problem
– Dealt with by Sensitivity testing
– Avoid disasters
• Us
– Lying cheating bastards
– Misunderstand the models
– Scared of uncertainty
41. The Computer Says “No!”
FROM TO
"Chicken guts are hard to read and invite flights of fancy or
corruption.” Ian Hacking, Philosopher
42. Forecasting can make you look stupid
• It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become Prime
Minister.
– Margaret Thatcher
• With over fifteen types of foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto
industry isn't likely to carve out a big share of the market for itself.
– Businessweek, August 2, 1968
• X-rays will prove to be a hoax.
– Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883
• There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.
– Steve Ballmer, USA Today, April 30, 2007
• Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?
• H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
Editor's Notes
Just think about, for a moment, the Delphi Oracle. The priestess, or the sybil, was an older woman of blameless life chosen from among the peasants of the area. She sat on a tripod seat over an opening in the earth emitting some sort of ethylene fumes. Intoxicated by the vapour, the priestess would prophecy in answer to a question in a rave that had to be interpreted by the priests of the temple, who would present her prophecies as poems.
The point is that the priests were as responsible for the prophecies as the raving woman on the stool, if not more so; if nothing else, they were sober. They had to be skilled in the interpretation of the sybil’s ranting and in writing poetry. The priests also had to have a good understanding of what was happening in the world or they would not be able to attach the sybil’s words to world events in a coherent way. They were required to undergo many years of training, while the sybil herself only had to be female, old and blameless.