An assessment piece for the Masters of Conservation Biology Course

1. The performance
of African
protected areas for
lions and their
prey
Lindsey et al. 2017, Biological Conservation
A critique by Jessica Pinder, School of Biosciences,
The University of Queensland

2. 14.7% of land area is
protected within state
owned terrestrial
reserves
Human population
expected to double by
2060 (Canning et al.
2015)
Conservation in Africa
Increased pressure on reservesSufficient protected areasMegadiverse continent
© Stephen Wilkes
3 endemic orders of
mammals, haven for
megafauna

3. Efficient management is needed to conserve lions within existing reserve system
Top order predator
Economic value
(phototourism,
hunting)
Umbrella species
Currently just over half
of lion range has
protected area status
(Riggio et al. 2012)
Conserving Panthera leo
Wild lion populations
have declined by 43%
since 1993, making the
IUCN Red List (Bauer
et al. 2015)

4. Research Objectives
Determine which
factors improve the
efficacy of conservation
for lions and their prey
Determine the
performance of
protected areas in
conserving lions
Understand the major
threats to wildlife in
African protected areas
1 2 3

6. STEP 3:
Evaluate lion populations
in reserves
published literature
expert estimates
STEP 1:
Determine protected areas
across lion range
186 reserves >1000km2
14 countries
The Game Plan
STEP 2:
Determine reserve carrying
capacity* of lions
soil type & rainfall
STEP 4:
Evaluate ungulate prey
populations in reserves
above or below 50%
expert estimates

7. MANAGEMENT
CAPACITY
(MODIFIABLE)
 Budgets*
 Fencing status
 Hunting
 Phototourism
THREAT VARIABLES
 Poaching (2 types)
 Human conflict
 Illegal logging
 Encroachment
 Tree cutting
 Disease
 Livestock
 Mining
 Legal Hunting
 Excessive quotas
GEOGRAPHIC-
SOCIOECONOMIC
 Land usage
 Gross National
Product
 Human density
 Livestock density
Explanatory variables
© Safari Guide Africa

8. 65.2% of
protected areas
failed to
adequately
conserve lions
For half of all
PAs lion
populations were
<25% of capacity

9. 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Current Efficient
LionPopulationSize
Management Type
↑ higher management budget
↑ completely fence area
↑ phototourism
↓ logging
↓ bushmeat poaching
↓ human encroachment
If stocked to carrying capacity
protected areas could increase
lion population by 261%

10. 4.4 Necessary steps
… “There is an urgent need for
elevated funding and more
focused conservation efforts
directed towards protected areas
in many countries” …

12. The makings of good
conservation science
 Considers political and socioeconomic
realities
 Spatial distribution of threats
- Central / West Africa highest concern
 Identifies protected areas that are
underperforming
- Bushmeat poaching most severe in
large protected areas with smaller budget
 Considers potential management
interventions (phototourism & fencing)

13. What can we do with this information to manage reserves efficiently???
Considers costs but
not cost
effectiveness?
(standardise
budgets)
Roadblocks to decision making
Design renders
spatial planning
tools such as
Marxan and
Zonation inutile
Categorises
protected areas on
a binary system
based on CC
(ranking?)

14. Which protected areas and
what management actions
should we invest in, to
most efficiently increase
lion and their prey
populations?

15. Cost Effectivity Analysis
PROJECT PRIORITISATION PROTOCOL
1. DEFINE OBJECTIVE
Increase lions and prey populations in
existing reserves > 50% carrying capacity
2. PRIORITISE ASSETS
Identify protected areas with greatest
potential for conservation gain by
ranking carrying capacity performance

16. 3. ID MODIFIABLE ACTIONS
 Use spatial threat distribution to focus
management efforts.
 Link key threats with proven beneficial
modifiable actions i.e. fencing, photographic
tourism, trophy hunting and budget
4. ESTIMATE COSTS
 Cost out the minimum set of
recommended actions to increase # lions
and prey
 Consider infrastructure, monitoring,
services, project management
© Bushwarriors

17. 5. ESTIMATE BENEFITS
Benefit = estimated increase in lion and prey
populations to 50% carrying capacity
6. SUCCESS LIKELIHOOD
Experts predict probability of limitation factors
causing actions to fail i.e. operational, legal,
political and social
7. STATE CONSTRAINTS
i.e. budget
8. CHOOSE PROJECTS!
© Love to Fly Iberia
© Billy Dodson

18. Outcomes of
Decision Analysis
© Naturalia
© Asheboro Magazine

19. Where should we invest?
How can we prioritise between reserves?
What actions should we take?
To discover solutions you
must clearly understand
the problem you are
trying to solve