Germany‘s energy system, the status of the energy transition and R&D needs

1. Energiewende
Germany‘s energy system, the status of the energy transition and R&D needs
Jens Winkler
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
Energy Research – General Issues and Strategy
IEA ETSAP Stuttgart Nov 7th 2018
18-11-17
I: The magic triangle
II: Technological challenges
III: National R&D agenda

2. I: The Energiewende combines security of supply,
cost-effectiveness and environmental protection
11/17/2018 | 2
Source:BMWi
Environmentally
sound
Affordable and
cost-effective
Secure and
reliable

3. The Energiewende is Germany’s long-term energy and
climate strategy
11/17/2018 | 3
Source:Ecofys2018basedonBMWi2016,UBA2018,AGEB2018
2020 2030 2040 20502025 2035 2045
.
Energy
Efficiency
% greenhouse gas
reduction (vs. 1990)
% gross electricity
consumption
Final energy productivity
(vs. 2008)
Primary energy demand in
buildings (vs. 2008)
Primary energy
consumption (vs. 2008)
% gross final energy
consumption
Final energy consumption in
transport (vs. 2005)
Climate
Renewable
Energy
-40
-55 -70 -80 to -95
+2.1% p.a. (2008-2050)
35 40 to 45
50 65
80
55 to 60
18
30
45
60
-20 -50
-10
-40-15 to -20
-80
27.6%
(2016)
36%
14.8%
(2016)
-6%
1.1% p.a.
(2016)
-15.9%
(2015)
+1.3%
(2015)
Achieved
2017
4,380 PJ
(2008)
.
Energy
Efficiency
% greenhouse gas
reduction (vs. 1990)
% gross electricity
consumption
Final energy productivity
(vs. 2008)
Primary energy demand in
buildings (vs. 2008)
Primary energy
consumption (vs. 2008)
% gross final energy
consumption
Final energy consumption in
transport (vs. 2005)
Climate
Renewable
Energy
40
55
70 80 to 95
+2.1% p.a. (2008-2050)
35 40 to 45 65
80
18 30 45 60
-20
-50
-10 -40-15 to -20
-80
27.6%
(2016)
36.2%
14.8%
(2016)
-6.0%
1.1% p.a.
(2016)
-15.9%
(2015)
+1.3%
(2015)

4. The energy transition is having positive effects at
various levels of the economy
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Source:Edelman.ergo2016

5. Renewables reduce dependence on energy imports
Source:Ecofys2017basedonAGEB2012,AGEB2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
%oftotalfinalenergyconsumption(REStarget)
%oftotalprimaryenergysupply
renewables (RES)
lignite
hard coal
gas
oil
other
oil imports
gas imports
hard coal imports
nuclear
RES target
(final energy,
right axis)
Dependence on imports
domestic production
60% RES target
(final energy)
11/17/2018 | 5

6. Declining module costs in particular have driven
down the price of solar PV systems in Germany
11/17/2018 | 6
Source:FraunhoferISE2016basedonBSW,PSEAG
Average retail price for rooftop systems with an installed capacity of 10-100 kW
Share in average price
Costs for Balance of
system (BOS) including
inverter
Costs of modules
Year
Averageprice(€/kW)

7. Investments in wind power have overtaken
investments in solar PV
11/17/2018 | 7
Source:BMWi-DLR/DIW/GWS2016
3,710
3,239
2,944
8,750
9,208
10,473
10,182
6,068
7,357 7,496
6,692
9.4
9.4
12
19.7
24.3
20.6
17
12.5
16
11.9
11.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AnnualcapacityadditionsinMW
AnnualinvestmentinbillionEuro
hydro
biomass
electricity
photovoltaic
onshore wind
offshore wind
RE investments
[right axis]

8. German RES support payments mainly go to existing plants;
new installations account for a much smaller share
11/17/2018 | 8
Source:Ecofys2015,basedonAgoraEnergiewende/Öko-Institut201
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Billioneuro(2015)
Other
Biomass
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Solar
Other (old)
Biomass (old)
Offshore wind (old)
Onshore wind (old)
Solar (old)

9. Technology-specific payments reflect the varying cost
of different types and sizes of renewables
11/17/2018 | 9
Source:Ecofys2016basedonBNetzA2016
3.47
3.69
5.71
25
0.44
3.82
4.91
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
hydropower
landfill, sewage & mine gas
biomass
geothermal
offshore wind
onshore wind
solar PV
Support levels in Germany - January 2018 in € cent/kWh
12.7
8.38
19.4
23.26
8.17
12.4

10. Net job creation shows that the German building sector is
benefitting most from the energy transition
11/17/2018 | 10
Source:GWS,EWI,Prognos2014
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020
Netjobcreationbysector
in1000employees
industry
trade
building sector
services
energy and
mining
Estimates for 2014-2020

11. II: The energy transition triad combines efficiency,
direct use of renewables and sector coupling
11/17/2018 | 11
Source:BMWi2017
Efficiency first
Direct use of
renewables
Sector coupling

12. Improved grid connections between northern and
southern Germany are required to prevent shortages
11/17/2018 | 12
Source:DUH2011
solar
wind (installed)
wind (planned)
bottlenecks
transmission grid
distribution grid
high-demand areas
Supply
Demand

13. Renewables require high flexibility from the system
11/17/2018 | 13
Source:FraunhoferISE2016
hydro
Winter 2016
week no. 50 (December)
Summer 2016
week no. 20 (May)
Powergeneration(GW)
nuclear
biomass
hard coal
lignite
solar
wind
seasonal storage
pumped storage
oil
gas

14. Flexibility options are key to making the system
renewables-ready
11/17/2018 | 14
Source:Ecofys2016
Share of RE
80%65%50%35%
2025 2035 2050 Target year
20%
Grids
Generation
Consumption
Storage
Batteries
Grid expansion
Flexibility
(conventional and renewables)
Demand response
Power-to-heat
Pumped storage
Power-to-x

15. The energy transition is a driver of innovation in
Germany
11/17/2018 | 15
Source:Ecofys2017basedonStatista2016,DeutschesPatent-undMarkenamt2017
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NumberofpatentsforREStechnologies
registeredinGermany
total
geothermal,
biogas
hydro, wave, tidal
wind
solar

16. Strategic element of energy policy
• Expediting the energy transition
• Managing societal risks
• Strengthening Germany / Europe as
an industrial location
III: National R&D policy
1977
1981
1990
1996
2005
2011
2018

17. 7. Energy Research Programme
of the Federal Government
11/17/2018 | 17
• Published end of September 2018
• Expediting technology and innovation
transfer
• Living labs
• Better access for start-ups
• Systemic and intersystemic issues
• Sector coupling (PtX)
• Digitisation
• Around 1.3 billion Euro p.a.

18. • New programme pillar (TRL 7-9)
• Transformative projects with systemic
approach
• Integral innovation process (technical
und non-technical innovation, regulatory
learning, society and economics)
• Experimental environment for a limited
term and in a delimited space
• 100 million Euro p.a.
• Thematic focus 1. Call: PtX in industrial
scale
Living labs for the energy transition will develop,
try out and propagate integral solutions

19. New focus on systemic and cross-system issues of
the energy transition
Power generation
• Photovoltaics
• Wind power
• Bioenergy
• Geothermal
• Hydropower / marine energy
• Thermal power plants
System integration
• Electricity grids
• Electricity stores
• Sector coupling
Energy transition in
consumption sectors
• Buildings and neighbourhoods
• Industry, commerce, trade
and services
• Interfaces of energy research
with mobility and transport
Cross-system research topics for the energy transition
• Energy system analysis
• Digitisation
• Resource efficiency
• CO2-technologies
• Energy transition and society
• Materials research

20. Federal support for R&D increases as energy
research is key for the energy transition
Project funding for non-nuclear energy research in Germany from 1977 to 2017
ProjectManagementJülich,profi-database

21. Framework and organisation
of energy research policy
Coordination Platform
for Energy Research Policy
BMWi (FF)
BMBF, BMEL
Federal and State
Government Dialogue
on Energy Research
Policy
Energy Transition
Research and Innovation
Platform
Energy research
networks

22. • European Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan
• renewable energies, smart energy systems, energy efficiency and sustainable
transport
• IEA’s technology collaboration programmes
• Germany active in 22 of the 38 TCPs
• Berlin Model
International cooperation in energy research
supports global climate protection

23. Thank you
for your attention
18-11-17 Referent 23
Contact details
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
Energy Research – General Issues and Strategy
Scharnhorststr. 34-37
10115 Berlin
Jens.Winkler@bmwi.bund.de
www.bmwi.de

24. Average electricity bills in Germany are comparable to
those of other industrialised countries
11/17/2018 | 24
Source:Ecofys2018basedonEurostat2017,WorldEnergyCouncil2014,GermanChambersofCommerceAbroad
Data from 2014-2017
2640
3910
3900
5290
11135
3360
5275
3780
12305
-2000 3000 8000 13000
Consumption (kWh)
0
22
20
21
17
9
31
21
30
13
0 20 40
Price (€ ct/kWh)
588
769
814
907
1019
1035
1095
1127
1564
0 1000 2000
Electricity bill (€)
US
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Canada
France
Spain
UK
Italy

25. German industrial electricity prices: increased levies
balanced by declining production costs
11/17/2018 | 25
Source:BMWi.2016basedonBNetzA/Bundeskartellamt2016
10.95
12.57 11.89 12.29
15.74 15.78
17.17
15.11 14.80
14.20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pricesforanindustrialconsumptionof24GWh/a,
asof01Aprileachyear
inct/kWh
electricity tax
offshore liability surcharge
network apportionment
CHP Act
EEG levy
concession levy
network charges
production & distribution