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Energy Research Program of the German Government

IEA-ETSAP
IEA-ETSAP
IEA-ETSAPIEA-ETSAP

Germany‘s energy system, the status of the energy transition and R&D needs

Energy Research Program of the German Government

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Energiewende
Germany‘s energy system, the status of the energy transition and R&D needs
Jens Winkler
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
Energy Research – General Issues and Strategy
IEA ETSAP Stuttgart Nov 7th 2018
18-11-17
I: The magic triangle
II: Technological challenges
III: National R&D agenda
I: The Energiewende combines security of supply,
cost-effectiveness and environmental protection
11/17/2018 | 2
Source:BMWi
Environmentally
sound
Affordable and
cost-effective
Secure and
reliable
The Energiewende is Germany’s long-term energy and
climate strategy
11/17/2018 | 3
Source:Ecofys2018basedonBMWi2016,UBA2018,AGEB2018
2020 2030 2040 20502025 2035 2045
.
Energy
Efficiency
% greenhouse gas
reduction (vs. 1990)
% gross electricity
consumption
Final energy productivity
(vs. 2008)
Primary energy demand in
buildings (vs. 2008)
Primary energy
consumption (vs. 2008)
% gross final energy
consumption
Final energy consumption in
transport (vs. 2005)
Climate
Renewable
Energy
-40
-55 -70 -80 to -95
+2.1% p.a. (2008-2050)
35 40 to 45
50 65
80
55 to 60
18
30
45
60
-20 -50
-10
-40-15 to -20
-80
27.6%
(2016)
36%
14.8%
(2016)
-6%
1.1% p.a.
(2016)
-15.9%
(2015)
+1.3%
(2015)
Achieved
2017
4,380 PJ
(2008)
.
Energy
Efficiency
% greenhouse gas
reduction (vs. 1990)
% gross electricity
consumption
Final energy productivity
(vs. 2008)
Primary energy demand in
buildings (vs. 2008)
Primary energy
consumption (vs. 2008)
% gross final energy
consumption
Final energy consumption in
transport (vs. 2005)
Climate
Renewable
Energy
40
55
70 80 to 95
+2.1% p.a. (2008-2050)
35 40 to 45 65
80
18 30 45 60
-20
-50
-10 -40-15 to -20
-80
27.6%
(2016)
36.2%
14.8%
(2016)
-6.0%
1.1% p.a.
(2016)
-15.9%
(2015)
+1.3%
(2015)
The energy transition is having positive effects at
various levels of the economy
11/17/2018 | 4
Source:Edelman.ergo2016
Renewables reduce dependence on energy imports
Source:Ecofys2017basedonAGEB2012,AGEB2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
%oftotalfinalenergyconsumption(REStarget)
%oftotalprimaryenergysupply
renewables (RES)
lignite
hard coal
gas
oil
other
oil imports
gas imports
hard coal imports
nuclear
RES target
(final energy,
right axis)
Dependence on imports
domestic production
60% RES target
(final energy)
11/17/2018 | 5
Declining module costs in particular have driven
down the price of solar PV systems in Germany
11/17/2018 | 6
Source:FraunhoferISE2016basedonBSW,PSEAG
Average retail price for rooftop systems with an installed capacity of 10-100 kW
Share in average price
Costs for Balance of
system (BOS) including
inverter
Costs of modules
Year
Averageprice(€/kW)

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Energy Research Program of the German Government

  • 1. Energiewende Germany‘s energy system, the status of the energy transition and R&D needs Jens Winkler Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy Energy Research – General Issues and Strategy IEA ETSAP Stuttgart Nov 7th 2018 18-11-17 I: The magic triangle II: Technological challenges III: National R&D agenda
  • 2. I: The Energiewende combines security of supply, cost-effectiveness and environmental protection 11/17/2018 | 2 Source:BMWi Environmentally sound Affordable and cost-effective Secure and reliable
  • 3. The Energiewende is Germany’s long-term energy and climate strategy 11/17/2018 | 3 Source:Ecofys2018basedonBMWi2016,UBA2018,AGEB2018 2020 2030 2040 20502025 2035 2045 . Energy Efficiency % greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990) % gross electricity consumption Final energy productivity (vs. 2008) Primary energy demand in buildings (vs. 2008) Primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) % gross final energy consumption Final energy consumption in transport (vs. 2005) Climate Renewable Energy -40 -55 -70 -80 to -95 +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) 35 40 to 45 50 65 80 55 to 60 18 30 45 60 -20 -50 -10 -40-15 to -20 -80 27.6% (2016) 36% 14.8% (2016) -6% 1.1% p.a. (2016) -15.9% (2015) +1.3% (2015) Achieved 2017 4,380 PJ (2008) . Energy Efficiency % greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990) % gross electricity consumption Final energy productivity (vs. 2008) Primary energy demand in buildings (vs. 2008) Primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) % gross final energy consumption Final energy consumption in transport (vs. 2005) Climate Renewable Energy 40 55 70 80 to 95 +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) 35 40 to 45 65 80 18 30 45 60 -20 -50 -10 -40-15 to -20 -80 27.6% (2016) 36.2% 14.8% (2016) -6.0% 1.1% p.a. (2016) -15.9% (2015) +1.3% (2015)
  • 4. The energy transition is having positive effects at various levels of the economy 11/17/2018 | 4 Source:Edelman.ergo2016
  • 5. Renewables reduce dependence on energy imports Source:Ecofys2017basedonAGEB2012,AGEB2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 %oftotalfinalenergyconsumption(REStarget) %oftotalprimaryenergysupply renewables (RES) lignite hard coal gas oil other oil imports gas imports hard coal imports nuclear RES target (final energy, right axis) Dependence on imports domestic production 60% RES target (final energy) 11/17/2018 | 5
  • 6. Declining module costs in particular have driven down the price of solar PV systems in Germany 11/17/2018 | 6 Source:FraunhoferISE2016basedonBSW,PSEAG Average retail price for rooftop systems with an installed capacity of 10-100 kW Share in average price Costs for Balance of system (BOS) including inverter Costs of modules Year Averageprice(€/kW)
  • 7. Investments in wind power have overtaken investments in solar PV 11/17/2018 | 7 Source:BMWi-DLR/DIW/GWS2016 3,710 3,239 2,944 8,750 9,208 10,473 10,182 6,068 7,357 7,496 6,692 9.4 9.4 12 19.7 24.3 20.6 17 12.5 16 11.9 11.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AnnualcapacityadditionsinMW AnnualinvestmentinbillionEuro hydro biomass electricity photovoltaic onshore wind offshore wind RE investments [right axis]
  • 8. German RES support payments mainly go to existing plants; new installations account for a much smaller share 11/17/2018 | 8 Source:Ecofys2015,basedonAgoraEnergiewende/Öko-Institut201 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Billioneuro(2015) Other Biomass Offshore wind Onshore wind Solar Other (old) Biomass (old) Offshore wind (old) Onshore wind (old) Solar (old)
  • 9. Technology-specific payments reflect the varying cost of different types and sizes of renewables 11/17/2018 | 9 Source:Ecofys2016basedonBNetzA2016 3.47 3.69 5.71 25 0.44 3.82 4.91 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 hydropower landfill, sewage & mine gas biomass geothermal offshore wind onshore wind solar PV Support levels in Germany - January 2018 in € cent/kWh 12.7 8.38 19.4 23.26 8.17 12.4
  • 10. Net job creation shows that the German building sector is benefitting most from the energy transition 11/17/2018 | 10 Source:GWS,EWI,Prognos2014 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2010 2015 2020 Netjobcreationbysector in1000employees industry trade building sector services energy and mining Estimates for 2014-2020
  • 11. II: The energy transition triad combines efficiency, direct use of renewables and sector coupling 11/17/2018 | 11 Source:BMWi2017 Efficiency first Direct use of renewables Sector coupling
  • 12. Improved grid connections between northern and southern Germany are required to prevent shortages 11/17/2018 | 12 Source:DUH2011 solar wind (installed) wind (planned) bottlenecks transmission grid distribution grid high-demand areas Supply Demand
  • 13. Renewables require high flexibility from the system 11/17/2018 | 13 Source:FraunhoferISE2016 hydro Winter 2016 week no. 50 (December) Summer 2016 week no. 20 (May) Powergeneration(GW) nuclear biomass hard coal lignite solar wind seasonal storage pumped storage oil gas
  • 14. Flexibility options are key to making the system renewables-ready 11/17/2018 | 14 Source:Ecofys2016 Share of RE 80%65%50%35% 2025 2035 2050 Target year 20% Grids Generation Consumption Storage Batteries Grid expansion Flexibility (conventional and renewables) Demand response Power-to-heat Pumped storage Power-to-x
  • 15. The energy transition is a driver of innovation in Germany 11/17/2018 | 15 Source:Ecofys2017basedonStatista2016,DeutschesPatent-undMarkenamt2017 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NumberofpatentsforREStechnologies registeredinGermany total geothermal, biogas hydro, wave, tidal wind solar
  • 16. Strategic element of energy policy • Expediting the energy transition • Managing societal risks • Strengthening Germany / Europe as an industrial location III: National R&D policy 1977 1981 1990 1996 2005 2011 2018
  • 17. 7. Energy Research Programme of the Federal Government 11/17/2018 | 17 • Published end of September 2018 • Expediting technology and innovation transfer • Living labs • Better access for start-ups • Systemic and intersystemic issues • Sector coupling (PtX) • Digitisation • Around 1.3 billion Euro p.a.
  • 18. • New programme pillar (TRL 7-9) • Transformative projects with systemic approach • Integral innovation process (technical und non-technical innovation, regulatory learning, society and economics) • Experimental environment for a limited term and in a delimited space • 100 million Euro p.a. • Thematic focus 1. Call: PtX in industrial scale Living labs for the energy transition will develop, try out and propagate integral solutions
  • 19. New focus on systemic and cross-system issues of the energy transition Power generation • Photovoltaics • Wind power • Bioenergy • Geothermal • Hydropower / marine energy • Thermal power plants System integration • Electricity grids • Electricity stores • Sector coupling Energy transition in consumption sectors • Buildings and neighbourhoods • Industry, commerce, trade and services • Interfaces of energy research with mobility and transport Cross-system research topics for the energy transition • Energy system analysis • Digitisation • Resource efficiency • CO2-technologies • Energy transition and society • Materials research
  • 20. Federal support for R&D increases as energy research is key for the energy transition Project funding for non-nuclear energy research in Germany from 1977 to 2017 ProjectManagementJülich,profi-database
  • 21. Framework and organisation of energy research policy Coordination Platform for Energy Research Policy BMWi (FF) BMBF, BMEL Federal and State Government Dialogue on Energy Research Policy Energy Transition Research and Innovation Platform Energy research networks
  • 22. • European Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan • renewable energies, smart energy systems, energy efficiency and sustainable transport • IEA’s technology collaboration programmes • Germany active in 22 of the 38 TCPs • Berlin Model International cooperation in energy research supports global climate protection
  • 23. Thank you for your attention 18-11-17 Referent 23 Contact details Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy Energy Research – General Issues and Strategy Scharnhorststr. 34-37 10115 Berlin Jens.Winkler@bmwi.bund.de www.bmwi.de
  • 24. Average electricity bills in Germany are comparable to those of other industrialised countries 11/17/2018 | 24 Source:Ecofys2018basedonEurostat2017,WorldEnergyCouncil2014,GermanChambersofCommerceAbroad Data from 2014-2017 2640 3910 3900 5290 11135 3360 5275 3780 12305 -2000 3000 8000 13000 Consumption (kWh) 0 22 20 21 17 9 31 21 30 13 0 20 40 Price (€ ct/kWh) 588 769 814 907 1019 1035 1095 1127 1564 0 1000 2000 Electricity bill (€) US Denmark Japan Germany Canada France Spain UK Italy
  • 25. German industrial electricity prices: increased levies balanced by declining production costs 11/17/2018 | 25 Source:BMWi.2016basedonBNetzA/Bundeskartellamt2016 10.95 12.57 11.89 12.29 15.74 15.78 17.17 15.11 14.80 14.20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Pricesforanindustrialconsumptionof24GWh/a, asof01Aprileachyear inct/kWh electricity tax offshore liability surcharge network apportionment CHP Act EEG levy concession levy network charges production & distribution