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The Influence of Continued RES Cost Reductions - an Analysis with the Mid-European-ELC TIMES Model

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The Influence of Continued RES Cost Reductions - an Analysis with the Mid-European-ELC TIMES Model

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The Influence of Continued RES Cost Reductions - an Analysis with the Mid-European-ELC TIMES Model

  1. 1. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED RES COST REDUCTIONS – AN ANALYSIS WITH A MIDEUROPEAN TIMES ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS MODEL 71st semi-annual IEA-ETSAP Workshop, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA July,10th 2017 Fabian P. Gotzens, M.Sc. PhD candidate
  2. 2. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 2 Contents  Motivation  Methodology  TIMES: European Electricity System Model  Power Plant Matching Tool  Scenario Definitions  Results  Conclusions and Outlook
  3. 3. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft 1 http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Power_to_Change_2016.pdf July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 3 Motivation  Tremendous drop in investment costs for RES in recent years  The International Energy Agency (IRENA) released a report1 in 2016 “THE POWER TO CHANGE: SOLAR AND WIND COST REDUCTION POTENTIAL TO 2025”  Suitable showcase to demonstrate the effects of variation of input parameters on the results of a long-term electricity system model https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/the-price-of-solar-is-declining-to-unprecedented-lows/
  4. 4. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 4 *NTC = Net Transfer Capacities Economical Parameters - Fuel Prices - CO2 Prices - Technology investment costs - Fixed + variable operations and maintanance costs - Discount rate Policy Parameters - CO2 reduction targets - RES expansion goals Technical Parameters - Power plant database (technologies, fuels, efficiencies decommission pathways, …) - Storage capacities - RES geographical potentials - RES temporal availability factors - Cross-border transmission capacities (NTC*) - CO2 emission factors - Demands per country European Electricity TIMES Model Paradigm LP capacity expansion model Regions 20 European countries Years 2015–2050 Resolution 4 seasons, 2 weekdays, 24 hours = 192 time slices p.a. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Model Overview
  5. 5. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 5 Challenges of Power Plant Databases No single database exists that is  all-encompassing + fully covering European geographical scope  free (costs and license)  updated regularly Database Supplier No. units Gigawatts Carbon Monitoring for Action 50‘570 4‘931.96 European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity 4‘384 851.14 DOE Energy Storage Exchange 850 153.72 Global Energy Observatory 1‘314 692.02 Open Power Systems Database 6‘768 571.08 World Electric Power Plants DB 63‘398 1‘848.83 World Resources Institute 2‘863 354.63 Power Plant Matching Toolset In cooperation with: J. Hörsch / F. Hofmann Matched Database
  6. 6. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 6 Challenges of Power Plant Databases  Good fit of matched DBs with statistics, but still room for improvement.
  7. 7. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 7 PRC_RESID: Decommissiong Pathway Fueltype (Technology) Life [a] Hard Coal and Lignite 35 Natural Gas (OCGT/CCGT) 25 Natural Gas (Steam Turbines) 35 Oil 20 Nuclear 50 Waste 25 Bioenergy 25 CAES 40 Hydro (Pumped & Reservoir) 100 Hydro (Run-of-River) 75 Wind (Onshore) 25 Wind (Offshore) 30 Photovoltaics & CSP 25 Others 5
  8. 8. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 8 Economical Parameters - Fuel Prices - CO2 Prices - Technology investment costs - Fixed + variable operations and maintanance costs - Discount rate Policy Parameters - CO2 reduction targets - RES expansion goals Technical Parameters - Power plant database (technologies, fuels, efficiencies decommission pathways, …) - Storage capacities - RES geographical potentials - RES temporal availability factors - Cross-border transmission capacities (NTC*) - CO2 emission factors - Demands per country *NTC = Net Transfer Capacities Model Overview European Electricity TIMES Model Paradigm LP capacity expansion model Regions 20 European countries Years 2015–2050 Resolution 4 seasons, 2 weekdays, 24 hours = 192 time slices p.a. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
  9. 9. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 AT BE CH CZ DE DK ES FR GB HU IE IT LU NL NO PL PT SE SI SK Wind Power Potentials in Europe [GW] 2020 2030 2050 Geothermal PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar Thermal 209 23 6544 CAP_BND: RES Geographical Potentials
  10. 10. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 10 Reference Scenario •Constant investment costs from 2015 Extended Scenario • Further decrease between 2025 and 2050 • Geometric trend for extrapolation Comparison IRENA Scenario •Decreasing investment costs between 2015 and 2025 according to IRENA Δ (Extended-Reference)Δ (IRENA-Reference) Δ (Extended-IRENA) Modelled Scenarios
  11. 11. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 11 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 INVCOST[EUR2010/kW] Solar CSP 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 INVCOST[EUR2010/kW] Solar PV 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 INVCOST[EUR2010/kW] Wind onshore 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 INVCOST[EUR2010/kW] Wind offshore INVCOST: Investment Costs in Scenarios
  12. 12. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 12 Reference Scenario  Europe’s electricity mix remains diverse  Nuclear remains major source of power  On- and offshore wind gain importance  Hard coal and lignite lose importance  Very little solar PV generation  Electricity trades increase steadily  Specific emissions  Due to expected increase in CO2 prices  downward trend  Some countries quicker, others slower  In 2050, Europe’s installed capacities will be dominated by  Renewables incl. Hydro  Nuclear  Natural Gas  Investments in Europe mostly dominated by  Nuclear Power  Hydro  Natural Gas  increasingly Wind (on+offshore)
  13. 13. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 13 Reference Scenario  Europe’s electricity mix remains diverse  Nuclear remains major source of power  On- and offshore wind gain importance  Hard coal and lignite lose importance  Very little solar PV generation  Electricity trades increase steadily  Specific emissions  Due to expected increase in CO2 prices  downward trend  Some countries quicker, others slower  In 2050, Europe’s installed capacities will be dominated by  Renewables incl. Hydro  Nuclear  Natural Gas  Investments in Europe mostly dominated by  Nuclear Power  Hydro  Natural Gas  increasingly Wind (on+offshore)
  14. 14. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 14 Reference Scenario  Europe’s electricity mix remains diverse  Nuclear remains major source of power  On- and offshore wind gain importance  Hard coal and lignite lose importance  Very little solar PV generation  Electricity trades increase steadily  Specific emissions  Due to expected increase in CO2 prices  downward trend  Some countries quicker, others slower  In 2050, Europe’s installed capacities will be dominated by  Renewables incl. Hydro  Nuclear  Natural Gas  Investments in Europe mostly dominated by  Nuclear Power  Hydro  Natural Gas  increasingly Wind (on+offshore)
  15. 15. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 15
  16. 16. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 16 countrywise delta-diagram here (either cap or gen)
  17. 17. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 17 countrywise delta-diagram here (either cap or gen)
  18. 18. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 18 Cross-border Electricity Exchanges  Electricity trades rise in an increasingly connected Europe
  19. 19. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 19 Hourly Resolution  Intratemporal resolution…  …works and shows reasonable behavior of exports and pumped hydro usage, but…  … the “peaking” utilization of solar PV in specific representative days needs to be further investigated.
  20. 20. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 20 Conclusions and Outlook Preliminary Results  Under current assumptions the model shows plausible results, i.e. …  …an expected decrease of investment costs for RES by IRENA until 2025 makes investment into RES, especially solar PV in European countries way more attractive than it was in 2015.  …a further extrapolated decrease until 2050 makes it even more attractive, but does not have significant influences on the model outcome.  However, there’s still work to do! Next Steps  Calibration of the European electricity system model such that model meets 2015 country statistics  Addition of East-European regions: FI, EE, LV, LT, BG, RO, GR etc.  Feed-In tariffs for RES per country  Future technologies and efficiency increases  Stochastics for wind power  More sophisticated storage integration…  Any kind advice is highly appreciated
  21. 21. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINUED RES COST REDUCTIONS – AN ANALYSIS WITH A MIDEUROPEAN TIMES ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS MODEL 71st semi-annual IEA-ETSAP Workshop, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA July,10th 2017 Fabian P. Gotzens, M.Sc. PhD candidate
  22. 22. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft Appendix
  23. 23. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 23
  24. 24. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 24
  25. 25. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 25
  26. 26. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 26
  27. 27. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 27
  28. 28. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 28
  29. 29. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 29
  30. 30. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 30 Fuel and CO2 Price Developments 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Price[€2008/tCO2-equ.] Price CO2 Certificates Reference strong weak 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Price[€2008/GJ] Price Crude Oil Reference strong weak 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Price[€2008/GJ] Price Natural Gas Reference strong weak 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Price[€2008/GJ] Price Coal Reference strong weak
  31. 31. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 31 Demands per Country
  32. 32. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 32 Matching Example ID Name Fueltype Classification Country Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Hydro nan Switzerland 14.609 47.0444 7.27578 1 Abbey mills pumping Oil nan United Kingdom 6.4 51.687 -0.0042057 2 Abertay Other nan United Kingdom 8 57.1785 -2.18679 3 Aberthaw Coal nan United Kingdom 1552.5 51.3875 -3.40675 4 Ablass Wind nan Germany 18 51.2333 12.95 5 Abono Coal nan Spain 921.7 43.5588 -5.72287 ID Name Fueltype Classification Country Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Hydro nan Switzerland 15.5 47.0378 7.272 1 Aberthaw Coal Thermal United Kingdom 1500 51.3873 -3.4049 2 Abono Coal Thermal Spain 921.7 43.5528 -5.7231 3 Abwinden asten Hydro nan Austria 168 48.248 14.4305 4 Aceca Oil CHP Spain 629 39.941 -3.8569 5 Aceca fenosa Natural Gas CCGT Spain 400 39.9427 -3.8548 Dataset 1 Dataset 2 Country Fueltype Classification Capacity lat lon 0 Aarberg Aarberg Switzerland Hydro nan 15.5 47.0411 7.27389 1 Aberthaw Aberthaw United Kingdom Coal Thermal 1552.5 51.3874 -3.40583 2 Abono Abono Spain Coal Thermal 921.7 43.5558 -5.72299
  33. 33. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 33 Principle and Matching Excerpt  Relies on java library, specialized for deduplicating and linking data  string comparison (name, fueltype)  numerical comparison (capacity)  geoposition comparison (lat, lon)  Criteria:  Country must be equal  Row scores of at least two databases must exceed given threshold Computes a “score” for each row CARMA ENTSOE ESE GEO OPSD WEPP WRI Fueltype Technology Country Year lat lon Capacity Anapo Anapo c.le Anapo solarino Anapo Anapo c.le Anapo Anapo c.le Hydro Pumped Storage Italy 1991 37,1295007 15,15225033 568,216216 Altenworth Altenwörth Altenwoerth Altenwörth Altenworth Altenwörth Hydro Run-Of-River Austria 1976 48,374614 15,8554715 324,024185 Arcos iberdrola Arcos Arcos frontera Arcos frontera Arcos Arcos frontera Natural Gas CCGT, CCGT, Spain 2005 36,672551 -5,816266 1600 Eems Eem ec Eems Eemscentrale ec Eems ec Eemscentrale Natural Gas OCGT Netherlands 1975 53,4348271 6,864897133 3134,7 Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Mochovce Nuclear Steam Turbine Slovakia 2000 48,263095 18,45613 1820 Krsko Krsko reactor Krško Krsko Krsko Nuclear Steam Turbine Slovenia 1981 45,9383317 15,51554778 730 Itoiz Pie presa itoiz Itoiz Central pie presa itoiz Hydro Reservoir Spain 2009 24,9227101 Thermische abfallbehandlu ng lauta gmbh & co. ohg Lauta thermische Waste Steam Turbine Germany 2004 51,45071 14,11215 22 Rdk karlsruhe Karlsruhe rdk and Rdk karlsruhe Hard Coal Steam Turbine Germany 1985 49,0131 8,308 1462 Esch alzette Esch sur alzette luxembourg Natural Gas CCGT Luxembourg 49,5119 5,9646 385
  34. 34. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 34
  35. 35. MitgliedderHelmholtz-Gemeinschaft July 10, 2017 Fabian Gotzens | f.gotzens@fz-juelich.de | Institute of Energy and Climate Research (STE), FZ Juelich, Germany 35 Comparison of the Matching Process

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