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Automotive Report
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
January 2019
2
Agenda
1 Europe
1.1 Market Overview
1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand
2 Italy
3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
3
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% January 2019 / January 2018
Executive Summary
 Areas: Islands +8,0%, Centre -2,6%, South -3,0%, North-East -8,5% and North-West
-13,4% in volume in January 2019 compared to January 2018
 Customer segments: Retail +4,1%, Fleet -17,4% and Business -29,5% in volume in
January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD
 Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Lancia +55,4%, Dacia +25,7%
andVolkswagen +10,6% in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD
 Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume, BMW +1,2% and Mercedes-Benz +0,7%
in volume in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD
 Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: Poland -0,3%, France, -1,1% and
Germany -1,4% in volume in January 2019 compared to January 2018
 Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 21,9% (+0,7 p.p.), Italy 13,4% (-0,4 p.p.) and
UK 13,1% (+0,4 p.p.) in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD
 Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Dacia +12,5%, Citroen +2,8%
and KIA +2,2% in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD
 Premium brands: Mercedes-Benz -2,3%, BMW -4,6% and Audi -16,9% in volume in
January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD
Europe*
Italy
-4,6%**
-7,5%**
4
Top 10 European Markets* – January 2019 vs January 2018
Europe – Market Overview
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
EU New Car Registrations
1.226.446 1.286.098
2019 2018
-4,6%
##
#°
##
Ranking on January 2019 data
New Car Registrations in January 2019
Δ% Jan. 2019 / Jan. 2018
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
** Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009)
-7,5
2°
164.864
-11,6
10°
25.257
-0,3
8°
45.927
1°
265.702
-18,8
7°
47.701-10,2
6°
51.074
-1,6
3°
161.013
-8,0
5°
93.546
-1,1
4°
155.079
9°
32.343
-12,6
-1,4
Despite a notable overall decline of the European PC
market (-4.6% vs January 2018), total registrations
(1.226.446) represents the second‐highest January
volume in the post-GFC era**
5
-20
20
10
0
-10
The mid-magnitude overall decline registered in January (-4.6%) is interestingly driven by almost all European Countries
and all Top10 countries, with Netherlands (-18.8%) being the worst performer of the Top10 and Spain (-8.0%) and Italy
(-7.5%) being by far the worst performers of the 5 European big players (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain)
Top 10 European Markets* – January 2019YTD
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Europe – Market Overview
Highlights Market Share
# Country
Jan.
2019
∆ Vs
2018
1 Germany 21,7% 0,7%
2 Italy 13,4% -0,4%
3 UK 13,1% 0,4%
4 France 12,6% 0,4%
5 Spain 7,6% -0,3%
6 Belgium 4,2% -0,3%
7 Netherlands 3,9% -0,7%
8 Poland 3,7% 0,2%
9 Ireland 2,6% -0,2%
10 Austria 2,1% -0,2%
-1,4
-1,6
-7,5
-1,1
-8,0
-10,2
-18,8
-11,6
-0,3
-12,6
Market Share
∆ % Volume
Jan. 19/18
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
20%10%
New Car Registrations Jan. 2019 YTD
6
Top 15 – January 2019YTD
Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
∆M.S.
19/18
0,01 0,03 -0,02 -0,04 -0,02 0,02 -0,02 0,00 0,00 -0,13 0,08 -0,16 0,04 0,18 0,07
Vol.'19 141.503 81.739 78.485 72.050 69.687 65.973 61.542 60.754 59.108 53.899 51.738 48.238 44.627 44.538 38.040 1.226.446
M.S.'19 11,5% 6,7% 6,4% 5,9% 5,7% 5,4% 5,0% 5,0% 4,8% 4,4% 4,2% 3,9% 3,6% 3,6% 3,1%
-3,5 -2,2
-6,6
-8,3
-6,4
-2,3
-6,4
-4,7 -4,6
-16,9
2,8
-19,6
-0,9
12,5
2,2
-4,6
∆ %
19/18
Tot.
*
* Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
7
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Market Highlights
2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand
2.4 New Car Registrations by Group
2.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
8
Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2019 vs 2018
Italy – Market Overview
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆'18/'17 ∆'19/'18
2019 takes off on the wrong foot with a new major downturn in the PC market (164,864
units sold compared to 178,326 in January 2018). On the one hand, this decrease can be
explained by the solid registrations increase registered in the first half of 2018 driven by
strong NSCs’ self-registrations boost. On the other hand, this new contraction of
registrations is driven by the suspense and confusion phase the Italian market has been going
through recently (in particular for the Fleet & Business channel) after the Italian
Government approved the 2019-2022 Ecotax in late December 2018
January 2019
NovemberMayMarch
-7,3%
January
6,5%
February JulyApril June August September October
-1,4%
December
3,4%
-7,4%-7,5% -5,8%
-2,8%
4,4%
9,5%
-25,4%
-6,3%
2,0%
9
25,7
10,6
10,5
4,1
1,8
-1,0
-11,2
-13,8
-29,2
55,4
Italian Market – January 2019 vs January 2018
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Overview
2015
2014
Δ% January 2019 / January 2018
164.864
178.326
-7,5%
2018
2019
-13,4
North-West
50.091
+8,0
Islands
9.330
-8,5
North-East
52.873
-2,6
Centre
35.131
-3,0
South
17.439
##
aa
##
Region
New Car Registrations in January 2019
Δ% Jan. 2019 / Jan. 2018
Growth of the Top 10
brands by volumes
6
10
Diesel
41,1%
Petrol
45,1% LPG
7,4%
CNG*
1,1%
EV*
5,3%
Other
13,8%
Italian Market – January 2019YTD vs January 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Highlights
Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type”
Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment”
105.984
33.528
25.352
101.783
40.604 35.940
BusinessRetail Fleet
2018
4,1% -17,4% -29,5%∆'19/'18
50.091 52.873
35.131
17.439
9.330
57.823 57.812
36.069
17.987
8.635
CentreNorth-West North-East South Islands
29.447
164.864
63.319
50.268
18.392 3.083 355
DBA C E TotalF
6,2% -3,0% -14,2% -19,1% -7,8% -41,7%-13,4% -8,5% -2,6% -3,0% 8,0%
2019
2018
∆'19/'18 ∆'19/'18
2019
2018
-31,2
+18,0
+45,9
+8,6
+28,3
∆% Volume Jan. 2019 / Jan. 2018 (YTD)
* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric)
164.864
178.326
2018
2019
-7,5
11
New Car Registrations by Brand – January 2019YTD (1/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
24.445
14.865
11.346 11.152 9.638 8.959 8.213 8.100 7.728 6.606 6.249 4.894 4.845 4.439 4.104
-29,2
10,6 4,1
-11,2
10,5 1,8
-13,8
-1,0
25,7
55,4
-16,1
1,2 0,7 9,2
-36,5
Volume
∆Volume
19/18 %
∆ M.S.
19/18 %
Market
Share %
-4,53 1,48 0,77 -0,28 0,96 0,49 -0,36 0,32 1,24 1,63 -0,39 0,26 0,24 0,41 -1,13
14,83 9,02 6,88 6,76 5,85 5,43 4,98 4,91 4,69 4,01 3,79 2,97 2,94 2,69 2,49
12
New Car Registrations by Brand – January 2019YTD (2/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
4.087
3.554 3.388
2.473
2.027 1.792 1.782 1.704 1.608 1.543
1.051 951 747 714
282
-37,3
-11,8
-45,4
-10,7
14,1
-9,6
54,4
-5,7
3,7
-9,4
50,5
-7,2
84,0
-58,6
0,4
Volume
∆Volume
19/18 %
∆ M.S.
19/18 %
Market
Share %
-1,17 -0,10 0,17 -1,04 -0,04 0,21 -0,03 0,41 0,02 0,11 -0,01 0,23 0,00 0,21 -0,21
2,48 2,16 2,06 1,50 1,23 1,09 1,08 1,03 0,98 0,94 0,64 0,58 0,45 0,43 0,17
13
New Car Registrations by Brand – January 2019YTD (3/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
256 240 229 211 209
171
81
50 48
23 18 6 5 00
28,0
-6,2
14,1
-4,1 -36,2
42,9
-49,5 -40,0
20,0
-100,0
200,0
400,0
287,1
155,6
0,0
Volume
∆Volume
19/18 %
∆ M.S.
19/18 %
Market
Share %
0,05 0,12 0,00 0,03 0,01 -0,05 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
0,16 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,03 0,03 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – January 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Group
24,3
18,3
13,7
9,7
6,8
4,8
5,1
4,0
3,9
2,5
2,1
1,7
1,0
0,6
0,5
Top 5: 72,7%
Top 10: 93,1%
1,7%
-21,7%
-36,7%
-1,3%
5,3%
-5,6%
-11,2%
4,0%
-0,4%
1,8%
0,4%
5,0%
54,4%
-9,4%
-7,2%
39.994
30.152
22.610
15.941
11.152
7.993
8.356
6.637
6.437
4.152
3.388
2.733
1.704
1.051
747
FCA
PSA
Volkswagen
Renault
Ford
Hyundai
Toyota
Daimler
BMW
Nissan
Suzuki
JLR
Volvo
Mazda
Honda
Market Share
(%)
DeltaVolume
'19 vs '18
VolumeGroup Brand
15
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type








































DieselPetrol
January 2019 2019YTD
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
11.387
4.810
3.324
2.516
2.490
2.379
2.060
1.596
1.581
1.509
11.387
4.810
3.324
2.516
2.490
2.379
2.060
1.596
1.581
1.509
2.618
2.293
2.159
2.117
2.071
1.758
1.738
1.516
1.489
1.468
COMPASS
500X
QASHQAI
RENEGADE
3008
T-ROC
TIGUAN
CLIO
GOLF
A CLASS
PANDA
YPSILON
C3
POLO
208
T-ROC
KARL
ECOSPORT
FIESTA
500
COMPASS
500X
QASHQAI
RENEGADE
3008
T-ROC
TIGUAN
CLIO
GOLF
A CLASS
PANDA
YPSILON
C3
POLO
208
T-ROC
KARL
ECOSPORT
FIESTA
500
2.618
2.293
2.159
2.117
2.071
1.758
1.738
1.516
1.489
1.468
16
2.329
2.229
1.595
968
865
690
590
481
409
295
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis




















CNGLPG
January 2019 2019YTD




















Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
576
440
174
149
115
100
56
54
30
26
576
440
174
149
115
100
56
54
30
26
PANDA
DUSTER
YPSILON
CLIO
CORSA
SANDERO
500
PICANTO
MOKKA
STONIC
PANDA
DUSTER
YPSILON
CLIO
CORSA
SANDERO
500
PICANTO
MOKKA
STONIC
UP!
PANDA
ASTRA
YPSILON
CADDY
QUBO
MII
CITIGO
DOBLO
POLO
UP!
PANDA
ASTRA
YPSILON
CADDY
QUBO
MII
CITIGO
DOBLO
POLO
2.329
2.229
1.595
968
865
690
590
481
409
295
17
3.155
1.574
531
486
418
370
353
287
233
217
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Hybrid and Pure Electric
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis




















PureElectricHybrid
January 2019 2019YTD




















Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
94
57
51
16
14
12
6
6
6
5
YARIS
C-HR
RAV4
SWIFT
NIRO
AURIS
IGNIS
A6
MONDEO
Q8
YARIS
C-HR
RAV4
SWIFT
NIRO
AURIS
IGNIS
A6
MONDEO
Q8
FORTWO
ZOE
LEAF
I3
I-PACE
MODEL X
C-ZERO
GOLF
MODEL S
FORFOUR
FORTWO
ZOE
LEAF
I3
I-PACE
MODEL X
C-ZERO
GOLF
MODEL S
FORFOUR
3.155
1.574
531
486
418
370
353
287
233
217
94
57
51
16
14
12
6
6
6
5
18
Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume**
+2,3%
D
«Executive»
+1,8%
B
«Supermini»
-0,1%
E
«Luxury»
-2,4%
C
«Medium»
0,0%
F
«Ultra Luxury»
0,2%
B
11,2%
17,9%
D
A
E
38,4%
30,5%C
1,9%
355F
100,0%Tot.
29.447
63.319
50.268
18.392
3.083
164.864
A
«Utility/City»
* Δ% January 2019 YTD / January 2018 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume January 2019 YTD
-1,6%
19
Segment A and Segment B – Top 10 – January 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
A
“Utility/City”
B
“Supermini”
14.638
2.183 2.104 1.761 1.462 1.356 1.124 871 828 694
500PANDA IGNISKARL PICANTOAYGOUP! FORTWO C1 108
6.606
4.216 4.137 4.112
3.805 3.792
3.341 3.224
2.692 2.421
CORSAYPSILON C3 YARIST-ROC POLO CLIO 208 SANDERO FIESTA
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
SegmentA is the only one showing a positive sign
on both volumes growth rate (+5,8% compared to
January 2018) and market share growth rate
(+2,3p.p. compared to January 2018)
Segment B despite its decrease in volumes (-3,4%
compared to January 2018) registered a boost in
market share (+1,8p.p. compared to January 2018)
30,1% -58,5% 25,7% 38,9% 23,2% 30,6% 64,8% -4,1% -15,9% -15,1%
55,3% -12,8% 306,4% 9,8% 4,8% -4,1% -1,9% 35,9% -50,1% 23,9%
20
Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – January 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
C
“Medium”
D
“Executive”
3.923
3.410
2.979 2.963
2.632 2.557 2.502
2.227
1.764 1.687
COMPASSDUSTER 500X GOLF A CLASSRENEGADE ECOSPORT QASHQAI 3008 TIPO
1.846
1.445
1.149
996
725 718
547 540 539 536
TIGUAN X3STELVIOKUGA X1 GLA RANGE
EVOQUE
OCTAVIA E-PACE RAV4
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
15,6% -40,6% -19,0% -16,7% 99,1% -14,9% 28,2% -35,2% 74,8% -67,7%
-33,7% -5,6% -13,9% -13,0% 85,4% 4,1% -26,6% -42,0% 243,3% -20,5%
Segment C and Segment D are by far the worst
performers respectively falling by 14,6% and 19,4% in
terms of volumes and -2,4p.p. and -1,5p.p. in terms of
market shares compared to January 2018
21
Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – January 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
E
“Luxury”
F
“Ultra Luxury”
60
28
25 24 22 20 20 19 18
14
GHIBLI PANAMERA7 SERIES S CLASS8 SERIES PORTOFINO GTF-TYPE A8 911
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
68,5% -27,9% -51,6% -31,7% -12,3% NA 815,0% 34,4% 12,6% -14,0%
-49,2% -31,7% NA -71,4% NA -16,7% -25,9% -53,7% 38,5% -90,1%
524
290 280 272 249
219
183 164
125 104
A6RANGE
SPORT
5 SERIES X5Q8E CLASS TOUAREGF-PACE XC90 LEVANTE
Luxury and Ultra-Luxury segments continue their
collapse started in September / October 2018.
Segment E falls by -8,2% and Segment F falls by
-41,9% compared to January 2018
22
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
23
New Regulation, Media attacks and higher expected cost of ownership
nearly halfed Diesel sales share especially in favor of Petrol, Hybrid and LPG
Italy – Trend of New Car Registrations by Fuel Type
70% 70% 69% 68% 67% 65%
41%
21% 23% 23% 23% 27%
45%
8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9%
14%
22%
Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Jan 2019Q3 2018Q2 2018 Q4 2018
-29p.p.
Alternative DieselPetrol
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Note: (*) Worldwide harmonized Light-Duty vehicles Test Procedure
Q1 2016 – Q3 2017
We are about to go on a 4-year journey
[…] to make Milan a low emission zone
Milan Mayor – Jun, 2018
“
”
Diesel cars targeted: one million
cars banned [in Piemonte] by 2025
Repubblica – Oct, 2017
“
”
Institutional announcements
Regulation introduction / approval
Introduction of WLTP*
Sales Approval
Government approves
introduction of Eco-
Tax in March 2019
Media opinions
From 2024, private diesel vehicles
will be banned in the Rome center
Rome Mayor – Feb, 2018
“
”
Sala Plan to make Milan a
diesel-free city
24 Ore – Jun, 2018
“
”
24
New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
3.387
4.889
7.431
8.766
2016 2017 2018 2019
EV Registrations Trend
Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share Jan. '19YTD
Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend
Volume Jan. '19YTD
Delta
YoY
41,2% 44,3% 52,0% 18,0%
M.S. 2,2% 2,8% 4,2% 5,3%
CAGR
3,4%
2016
96,6%
3,4% 96,6%
3,8%
96,2%
2017 2018
3,2%
96,8%
2019
Electric Hybrid
+35,2%
+37,4%
25
Italy – Replacement trend in Italy – Drivetrains
Questions: What type of drivetrain does your car have? What type of drivetrain will you likely choose?
Source: Arthur D. Little
According to a recent ADL survey, the change in Italian customers buying
behaviors regarding the drivetrain is going to be dramatic!
 The massive dominance of
pure combustion engines,
and gasoline engines in
particular, is likely to
decrease significantly
 A surge in sales of battery
electric vehicles (BEVs) and
hybrid solutions is expected
 Hybrid vehicles are
expected to be key for the
next years
 Only a small number of
people expect to change to
other alternatives (such as
fuel cells)
Replacement trend in Italy
Current and expected drivetrain, respondents intending to replace car
Notes: Data according to the responses of a selected sample of ~500 respondents to questions on buying behavior
Width of arrows is only indicative of size, and the smallest movements have been left out
Electric
Other
Gasoline
Natural gas
Diesel
Plug-in
hybrid
Hybrid
0.0%
42.5%
9.0%
1.0%
2.7%
0.8%
44.0%
Electric
Other
Gasoline
Natural gas
Diesel
Plug-in
hybrid
Hybrid
4.5%
13.5%
14.9%
16.2%
32.3%
3.7%
14.9%
Remarks
26
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
27
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (1/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A
B
C
D
F
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Q3 R8 e-tron 4
Z4
C5 Aircross
DS3 Crossback
1) 3 Series
2) X7 7 Series
28
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (2/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
F
G
H
I
J
K
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Edge
QX50
ProCeed
Mondeo
Soul
29
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (3/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
L
M
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Range Rover
Evoque Defender
1) ES hybrid
2) UX RC
Mazda 3
A Class
Sedan B ClassGLE CLA EQ C
30
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (4/5)
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
M
N
O
P
R
S
(P)
508 SW 208
(P)
400Z
(P)
Macan 911
Kadjar Clio
(P)
Tarraco
Scala
(P)
Kodiaq RS KAMIQ
Twingo Clio
Scala
31
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (5/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
S
T
V
(P)
Forester
Model 3
Supra
T-Cross Golf 8
S 60
1) Corolla
2) RAV4 Prius

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Arthur D. Little Automotive Report January 2019

  • 1. Automotive Report Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy January 2019
  • 2. 2 Agenda 1 Europe 1.1 Market Overview 1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand 2 Italy 3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 3. 3 Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% January 2019 / January 2018 Executive Summary  Areas: Islands +8,0%, Centre -2,6%, South -3,0%, North-East -8,5% and North-West -13,4% in volume in January 2019 compared to January 2018  Customer segments: Retail +4,1%, Fleet -17,4% and Business -29,5% in volume in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Lancia +55,4%, Dacia +25,7% andVolkswagen +10,6% in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD  Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume, BMW +1,2% and Mercedes-Benz +0,7% in volume in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD  Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: Poland -0,3%, France, -1,1% and Germany -1,4% in volume in January 2019 compared to January 2018  Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 21,9% (+0,7 p.p.), Italy 13,4% (-0,4 p.p.) and UK 13,1% (+0,4 p.p.) in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Dacia +12,5%, Citroen +2,8% and KIA +2,2% in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD  Premium brands: Mercedes-Benz -2,3%, BMW -4,6% and Audi -16,9% in volume in January 2019YTD compared to January 2018YTD Europe* Italy -4,6%** -7,5%**
  • 4. 4 Top 10 European Markets* – January 2019 vs January 2018 Europe – Market Overview Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis EU New Car Registrations 1.226.446 1.286.098 2019 2018 -4,6% ## #° ## Ranking on January 2019 data New Car Registrations in January 2019 Δ% Jan. 2019 / Jan. 2018 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) ** Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009) -7,5 2° 164.864 -11,6 10° 25.257 -0,3 8° 45.927 1° 265.702 -18,8 7° 47.701-10,2 6° 51.074 -1,6 3° 161.013 -8,0 5° 93.546 -1,1 4° 155.079 9° 32.343 -12,6 -1,4 Despite a notable overall decline of the European PC market (-4.6% vs January 2018), total registrations (1.226.446) represents the second‐highest January volume in the post-GFC era**
  • 5. 5 -20 20 10 0 -10 The mid-magnitude overall decline registered in January (-4.6%) is interestingly driven by almost all European Countries and all Top10 countries, with Netherlands (-18.8%) being the worst performer of the Top10 and Spain (-8.0%) and Italy (-7.5%) being by far the worst performers of the 5 European big players (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain) Top 10 European Markets* – January 2019YTD Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis Europe – Market Overview Highlights Market Share # Country Jan. 2019 ∆ Vs 2018 1 Germany 21,7% 0,7% 2 Italy 13,4% -0,4% 3 UK 13,1% 0,4% 4 France 12,6% 0,4% 5 Spain 7,6% -0,3% 6 Belgium 4,2% -0,3% 7 Netherlands 3,9% -0,7% 8 Poland 3,7% 0,2% 9 Ireland 2,6% -0,2% 10 Austria 2,1% -0,2% -1,4 -1,6 -7,5 -1,1 -8,0 -10,2 -18,8 -11,6 -0,3 -12,6 Market Share ∆ % Volume Jan. 19/18 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) 20%10% New Car Registrations Jan. 2019 YTD
  • 6. 6 Top 15 – January 2019YTD Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆M.S. 19/18 0,01 0,03 -0,02 -0,04 -0,02 0,02 -0,02 0,00 0,00 -0,13 0,08 -0,16 0,04 0,18 0,07 Vol.'19 141.503 81.739 78.485 72.050 69.687 65.973 61.542 60.754 59.108 53.899 51.738 48.238 44.627 44.538 38.040 1.226.446 M.S.'19 11,5% 6,7% 6,4% 5,9% 5,7% 5,4% 5,0% 5,0% 4,8% 4,4% 4,2% 3,9% 3,6% 3,6% 3,1% -3,5 -2,2 -6,6 -8,3 -6,4 -2,3 -6,4 -4,7 -4,6 -16,9 2,8 -19,6 -0,9 12,5 2,2 -4,6 ∆ % 19/18 Tot. * * Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
  • 7. 7 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 2.1 Market Overview 2.2 Market Highlights 2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand 2.4 New Car Registrations by Group 2.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type 3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 8. 8 Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2019 vs 2018 Italy – Market Overview Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆'18/'17 ∆'19/'18 2019 takes off on the wrong foot with a new major downturn in the PC market (164,864 units sold compared to 178,326 in January 2018). On the one hand, this decrease can be explained by the solid registrations increase registered in the first half of 2018 driven by strong NSCs’ self-registrations boost. On the other hand, this new contraction of registrations is driven by the suspense and confusion phase the Italian market has been going through recently (in particular for the Fleet & Business channel) after the Italian Government approved the 2019-2022 Ecotax in late December 2018 January 2019 NovemberMayMarch -7,3% January 6,5% February JulyApril June August September October -1,4% December 3,4% -7,4%-7,5% -5,8% -2,8% 4,4% 9,5% -25,4% -6,3% 2,0%
  • 9. 9 25,7 10,6 10,5 4,1 1,8 -1,0 -11,2 -13,8 -29,2 55,4 Italian Market – January 2019 vs January 2018 Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Overview 2015 2014 Δ% January 2019 / January 2018 164.864 178.326 -7,5% 2018 2019 -13,4 North-West 50.091 +8,0 Islands 9.330 -8,5 North-East 52.873 -2,6 Centre 35.131 -3,0 South 17.439 ## aa ## Region New Car Registrations in January 2019 Δ% Jan. 2019 / Jan. 2018 Growth of the Top 10 brands by volumes 6
  • 10. 10 Diesel 41,1% Petrol 45,1% LPG 7,4% CNG* 1,1% EV* 5,3% Other 13,8% Italian Market – January 2019YTD vs January 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Highlights Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type” Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment” 105.984 33.528 25.352 101.783 40.604 35.940 BusinessRetail Fleet 2018 4,1% -17,4% -29,5%∆'19/'18 50.091 52.873 35.131 17.439 9.330 57.823 57.812 36.069 17.987 8.635 CentreNorth-West North-East South Islands 29.447 164.864 63.319 50.268 18.392 3.083 355 DBA C E TotalF 6,2% -3,0% -14,2% -19,1% -7,8% -41,7%-13,4% -8,5% -2,6% -3,0% 8,0% 2019 2018 ∆'19/'18 ∆'19/'18 2019 2018 -31,2 +18,0 +45,9 +8,6 +28,3 ∆% Volume Jan. 2019 / Jan. 2018 (YTD) * CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric) 164.864 178.326 2018 2019 -7,5
  • 11. 11 New Car Registrations by Brand – January 2019YTD (1/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 24.445 14.865 11.346 11.152 9.638 8.959 8.213 8.100 7.728 6.606 6.249 4.894 4.845 4.439 4.104 -29,2 10,6 4,1 -11,2 10,5 1,8 -13,8 -1,0 25,7 55,4 -16,1 1,2 0,7 9,2 -36,5 Volume ∆Volume 19/18 % ∆ M.S. 19/18 % Market Share % -4,53 1,48 0,77 -0,28 0,96 0,49 -0,36 0,32 1,24 1,63 -0,39 0,26 0,24 0,41 -1,13 14,83 9,02 6,88 6,76 5,85 5,43 4,98 4,91 4,69 4,01 3,79 2,97 2,94 2,69 2,49
  • 12. 12 New Car Registrations by Brand – January 2019YTD (2/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 4.087 3.554 3.388 2.473 2.027 1.792 1.782 1.704 1.608 1.543 1.051 951 747 714 282 -37,3 -11,8 -45,4 -10,7 14,1 -9,6 54,4 -5,7 3,7 -9,4 50,5 -7,2 84,0 -58,6 0,4 Volume ∆Volume 19/18 % ∆ M.S. 19/18 % Market Share % -1,17 -0,10 0,17 -1,04 -0,04 0,21 -0,03 0,41 0,02 0,11 -0,01 0,23 0,00 0,21 -0,21 2,48 2,16 2,06 1,50 1,23 1,09 1,08 1,03 0,98 0,94 0,64 0,58 0,45 0,43 0,17
  • 13. 13 New Car Registrations by Brand – January 2019YTD (3/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 256 240 229 211 209 171 81 50 48 23 18 6 5 00 28,0 -6,2 14,1 -4,1 -36,2 42,9 -49,5 -40,0 20,0 -100,0 200,0 400,0 287,1 155,6 0,0 Volume ∆Volume 19/18 % ∆ M.S. 19/18 % Market Share % 0,05 0,12 0,00 0,03 0,01 -0,05 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,16 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,10 0,05 0,03 0,03 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
  • 14. 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – January 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Group 24,3 18,3 13,7 9,7 6,8 4,8 5,1 4,0 3,9 2,5 2,1 1,7 1,0 0,6 0,5 Top 5: 72,7% Top 10: 93,1% 1,7% -21,7% -36,7% -1,3% 5,3% -5,6% -11,2% 4,0% -0,4% 1,8% 0,4% 5,0% 54,4% -9,4% -7,2% 39.994 30.152 22.610 15.941 11.152 7.993 8.356 6.637 6.437 4.152 3.388 2.733 1.704 1.051 747 FCA PSA Volkswagen Renault Ford Hyundai Toyota Daimler BMW Nissan Suzuki JLR Volvo Mazda Honda Market Share (%) DeltaVolume '19 vs '18 VolumeGroup Brand
  • 15. 15 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type                                         DieselPetrol January 2019 2019YTD  Ranking variation compared to previous period 11.387 4.810 3.324 2.516 2.490 2.379 2.060 1.596 1.581 1.509 11.387 4.810 3.324 2.516 2.490 2.379 2.060 1.596 1.581 1.509 2.618 2.293 2.159 2.117 2.071 1.758 1.738 1.516 1.489 1.468 COMPASS 500X QASHQAI RENEGADE 3008 T-ROC TIGUAN CLIO GOLF A CLASS PANDA YPSILON C3 POLO 208 T-ROC KARL ECOSPORT FIESTA 500 COMPASS 500X QASHQAI RENEGADE 3008 T-ROC TIGUAN CLIO GOLF A CLASS PANDA YPSILON C3 POLO 208 T-ROC KARL ECOSPORT FIESTA 500 2.618 2.293 2.159 2.117 2.071 1.758 1.738 1.516 1.489 1.468
  • 16. 16 2.329 2.229 1.595 968 865 690 590 481 409 295 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis                     CNGLPG January 2019 2019YTD                     Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type  Ranking variation compared to previous period 576 440 174 149 115 100 56 54 30 26 576 440 174 149 115 100 56 54 30 26 PANDA DUSTER YPSILON CLIO CORSA SANDERO 500 PICANTO MOKKA STONIC PANDA DUSTER YPSILON CLIO CORSA SANDERO 500 PICANTO MOKKA STONIC UP! PANDA ASTRA YPSILON CADDY QUBO MII CITIGO DOBLO POLO UP! PANDA ASTRA YPSILON CADDY QUBO MII CITIGO DOBLO POLO 2.329 2.229 1.595 968 865 690 590 481 409 295
  • 17. 17 3.155 1.574 531 486 418 370 353 287 233 217 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Hybrid and Pure Electric Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis                     PureElectricHybrid January 2019 2019YTD                     Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type  Ranking variation compared to previous period 94 57 51 16 14 12 6 6 6 5 YARIS C-HR RAV4 SWIFT NIRO AURIS IGNIS A6 MONDEO Q8 YARIS C-HR RAV4 SWIFT NIRO AURIS IGNIS A6 MONDEO Q8 FORTWO ZOE LEAF I3 I-PACE MODEL X C-ZERO GOLF MODEL S FORFOUR FORTWO ZOE LEAF I3 I-PACE MODEL X C-ZERO GOLF MODEL S FORFOUR 3.155 1.574 531 486 418 370 353 287 233 217 94 57 51 16 14 12 6 6 6 5
  • 18. 18 Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume** +2,3% D «Executive» +1,8% B «Supermini» -0,1% E «Luxury» -2,4% C «Medium» 0,0% F «Ultra Luxury» 0,2% B 11,2% 17,9% D A E 38,4% 30,5%C 1,9% 355F 100,0%Tot. 29.447 63.319 50.268 18.392 3.083 164.864 A «Utility/City» * Δ% January 2019 YTD / January 2018 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume January 2019 YTD -1,6%
  • 19. 19 Segment A and Segment B – Top 10 – January 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment A “Utility/City” B “Supermini” 14.638 2.183 2.104 1.761 1.462 1.356 1.124 871 828 694 500PANDA IGNISKARL PICANTOAYGOUP! FORTWO C1 108 6.606 4.216 4.137 4.112 3.805 3.792 3.341 3.224 2.692 2.421 CORSAYPSILON C3 YARIST-ROC POLO CLIO 208 SANDERO FIESTA ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD SegmentA is the only one showing a positive sign on both volumes growth rate (+5,8% compared to January 2018) and market share growth rate (+2,3p.p. compared to January 2018) Segment B despite its decrease in volumes (-3,4% compared to January 2018) registered a boost in market share (+1,8p.p. compared to January 2018) 30,1% -58,5% 25,7% 38,9% 23,2% 30,6% 64,8% -4,1% -15,9% -15,1% 55,3% -12,8% 306,4% 9,8% 4,8% -4,1% -1,9% 35,9% -50,1% 23,9%
  • 20. 20 Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – January 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment C “Medium” D “Executive” 3.923 3.410 2.979 2.963 2.632 2.557 2.502 2.227 1.764 1.687 COMPASSDUSTER 500X GOLF A CLASSRENEGADE ECOSPORT QASHQAI 3008 TIPO 1.846 1.445 1.149 996 725 718 547 540 539 536 TIGUAN X3STELVIOKUGA X1 GLA RANGE EVOQUE OCTAVIA E-PACE RAV4 ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD 15,6% -40,6% -19,0% -16,7% 99,1% -14,9% 28,2% -35,2% 74,8% -67,7% -33,7% -5,6% -13,9% -13,0% 85,4% 4,1% -26,6% -42,0% 243,3% -20,5% Segment C and Segment D are by far the worst performers respectively falling by 14,6% and 19,4% in terms of volumes and -2,4p.p. and -1,5p.p. in terms of market shares compared to January 2018
  • 21. 21 Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – January 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment E “Luxury” F “Ultra Luxury” 60 28 25 24 22 20 20 19 18 14 GHIBLI PANAMERA7 SERIES S CLASS8 SERIES PORTOFINO GTF-TYPE A8 911 ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD 68,5% -27,9% -51,6% -31,7% -12,3% NA 815,0% 34,4% 12,6% -14,0% -49,2% -31,7% NA -71,4% NA -16,7% -25,9% -53,7% 38,5% -90,1% 524 290 280 272 249 219 183 164 125 104 A6RANGE SPORT 5 SERIES X5Q8E CLASS TOUAREGF-PACE XC90 LEVANTE Luxury and Ultra-Luxury segments continue their collapse started in September / October 2018. Segment E falls by -8,2% and Segment F falls by -41,9% compared to January 2018
  • 22. 22 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 23. 23 New Regulation, Media attacks and higher expected cost of ownership nearly halfed Diesel sales share especially in favor of Petrol, Hybrid and LPG Italy – Trend of New Car Registrations by Fuel Type 70% 70% 69% 68% 67% 65% 41% 21% 23% 23% 23% 27% 45% 8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9% 14% 22% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Jan 2019Q3 2018Q2 2018 Q4 2018 -29p.p. Alternative DieselPetrol Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Note: (*) Worldwide harmonized Light-Duty vehicles Test Procedure Q1 2016 – Q3 2017 We are about to go on a 4-year journey […] to make Milan a low emission zone Milan Mayor – Jun, 2018 “ ” Diesel cars targeted: one million cars banned [in Piemonte] by 2025 Repubblica – Oct, 2017 “ ” Institutional announcements Regulation introduction / approval Introduction of WLTP* Sales Approval Government approves introduction of Eco- Tax in March 2019 Media opinions From 2024, private diesel vehicles will be banned in the Rome center Rome Mayor – Feb, 2018 “ ” Sala Plan to make Milan a diesel-free city 24 Ore – Jun, 2018 “ ”
  • 24. 24 New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 3.387 4.889 7.431 8.766 2016 2017 2018 2019 EV Registrations Trend Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share Jan. '19YTD Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend Volume Jan. '19YTD Delta YoY 41,2% 44,3% 52,0% 18,0% M.S. 2,2% 2,8% 4,2% 5,3% CAGR 3,4% 2016 96,6% 3,4% 96,6% 3,8% 96,2% 2017 2018 3,2% 96,8% 2019 Electric Hybrid +35,2% +37,4%
  • 25. 25 Italy – Replacement trend in Italy – Drivetrains Questions: What type of drivetrain does your car have? What type of drivetrain will you likely choose? Source: Arthur D. Little According to a recent ADL survey, the change in Italian customers buying behaviors regarding the drivetrain is going to be dramatic!  The massive dominance of pure combustion engines, and gasoline engines in particular, is likely to decrease significantly  A surge in sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid solutions is expected  Hybrid vehicles are expected to be key for the next years  Only a small number of people expect to change to other alternatives (such as fuel cells) Replacement trend in Italy Current and expected drivetrain, respondents intending to replace car Notes: Data according to the responses of a selected sample of ~500 respondents to questions on buying behavior Width of arrows is only indicative of size, and the smallest movements have been left out Electric Other Gasoline Natural gas Diesel Plug-in hybrid Hybrid 0.0% 42.5% 9.0% 1.0% 2.7% 0.8% 44.0% Electric Other Gasoline Natural gas Diesel Plug-in hybrid Hybrid 4.5% 13.5% 14.9% 16.2% 32.3% 3.7% 14.9% Remarks
  • 26. 26 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 Focus on Fuel Type Evolution in Italy 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 27. 27 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (1/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec A B C D F Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Q3 R8 e-tron 4 Z4 C5 Aircross DS3 Crossback 1) 3 Series 2) X7 7 Series
  • 28. 28 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (2/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec F G H I J K Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Edge QX50 ProCeed Mondeo Soul
  • 29. 29 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (3/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec L M Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Range Rover Evoque Defender 1) ES hybrid 2) UX RC Mazda 3 A Class Sedan B ClassGLE CLA EQ C
  • 30. 30 Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (4/5) New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec M N O P R S (P) 508 SW 208 (P) 400Z (P) Macan 911 Kadjar Clio (P) Tarraco Scala (P) Kodiaq RS KAMIQ Twingo Clio Scala
  • 31. 31 Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (5/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S T V (P) Forester Model 3 Supra T-Cross Golf 8 S 60 1) Corolla 2) RAV4 Prius