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ANALYST
MEETING
JUKKA ERLUND
18 DEC. 2015
1
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
1/2013
2/2013
3/2013
4/2013
5/2013
6/2013
7/2013
8/2013
9/2013
10/2013
11/2013
12/2013
1/2014
2/2014
3/2014
4/2014
5/2014
6/2014
7/2014
8/2014
9/2014
10/2014
11/2014
12/2014
1/2015
2/2015
3/2015
4/2015
5/2015
6/2015
7/2015
8/2015
9/2015
10/2015
Latestmonth
Estonia
Sweden
Lithuania
Norway
Latvia
Finland
2
RETAIL TRADE TRENDS IN OPERATING COUNTRIES
ROLLING 12 MO
Source: Eurostat, excl. motor vehicles and fuels
%(rolling12mo)
Latest
month
3
Net sales, €m 9,285 9,235 9,166 9,071 9,024 8,881 8,780
Gross margin, % 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.3
Operating profit*, €m 239.3 237.2 237.6 232.6 240.0 248.8 247.2
EPS*, basic, € 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.65 1.69 1.72 1.66
Liquid assets, €m 532 461 503 598 506 843 858
Return on capital
employed*, %
9.9 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.2 10.9 11.3
Equity ratio, % 53.2 52.3 54.2 54.5 51.5 52.2 54.2
Capital expenditure, €m 173 181 197 194 202 205 195
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
*Excl. non.recurring items
KESKO’S KEY FIGURES, ROLLING 12 MONTHS
4
OPERATING MARGIN BY DIVISION
EXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS
Q1/
2014
Q2/
2014
Q3/
2014
Q4/
2014
Q1/
2015
Q2/
2015
Q3/
2015
Grocery trade 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.9 3.2 3.8 3.8
Home improvement
and speciality goods
trade
-4.1 1.0 2.2 0.4 -1.8 3.9 4.2
Car trade 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.0 4.7 3.4 3.5
Total 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.7 1.3 3.4 3.7
KESKO GROUP’S SALES 1–11/2015
5
1.1. - 30.11.2015 Change, %
€ million Change,
%
in local
currencies
excl. Anttila
Grocery trade, total 4,250.8 -1.7 -0.9
Home improvement and speciality goods trade,
Finland 1,639.3 -12.5 -1.2
Home improvement and speciality goods trade,
other countries 1,448.8 -3.5 +5.6
Home improvement and speciality goods
trade, total
3,088.1 -8.5 +2.1
Car trade, total 707.7 -3.5 -3.5
Grand total 8,054.2 -4.3 0.0
Finland, total 6,512.2 -4.5 -1.8
Other countries, total 1,542.0 -3.4 +7.4
Grand total 8,054.2 -4.3 0.0
STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION
6
Liquid assets €858m €503m
Interest bearing net
liabilities
€-394m €-3m
Equity ratio 54.2% 54.2%
Q3/2015 Q3/2014
7
ROCE AND ROE
EXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS, %
12.4
14.7
10.2
7.4
14.0
13.1
9.0
9.8 9.9
11.3
14.0
10.0
14.6
8.1
3.8
8.7 8.8
6.9
7.7 7.6 8.0
12.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3/2015 target
ROCE ROE
7
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN STRATEGIC
GROWTH AREAS
• Grocery trade
• Building and home improvement trade
• Car trade
• Capital expenditure in range of €250 million / year,
excluding possible acquisitions
• Also acquisitions are considered in all three strategic
growth areas
8
KEY STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
9
• Turning the market share in the Finnish grocery trade around
• Increasing the building and home improvement trade in Europe
• Strengthening the market leadership in the Finnish car trade
• The best omni-channel customer experience in the trading sector
• One unified Kesko, harvesting synergies
KESKO TO INVEST IN FINLAND BY ACQUIRING
SUOMEN LÄHIKAUPPA
• Kesko has made an agreement to acquire the whole share capital of Suomen
Lähikauppa Oy from the private equity investment firm Triton
• Net sales of Suomen Lähikauppa in 2014 were €999.2 million
• Suomen Lähikauppa has 643 neighbourhood stores and 4,100 employees
• Transaction price of the debt-free acquisition, structured as a share purchase,
is approximately €60 million
• Kesko estimates that its capital expenditure in 2015-2017 will decrease from
the approximately €1 billion announced in the strategy to €750 million,
excluding possible acquisitions
10
GROCERY TRADE
11
• Net sales €4,684m, change in local
currencies -1.5%
• Operating profit* €185m (4.0%)
• ROCE* 20%
*excl. non-rec. items
Q4/2014-Q3/2015 (12 months)
11
• Strengthening of competitiveness is
progressing as planned
• Price trend in Finnish grocery trade
continues to decline (-1%)
• Sales in Russia in 1-9/2015, change
in local currency +34.5%, in euros
-2.4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
12
SALES, CHANGE %,
IN LOCAL CURRENCIES
1-11/2015
OPERATING PROFIT
EXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS
-4.5
0.6
7.6
-6.0
-3.3
-0.9
-1.1
0.5
-0.4
-2.2
0.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
% €m
PROGRESS OF GROCERY TRADE STRATEGY
• Expansion and renewal of store site network and renewal of concepts
• Acquisition of Suomen Lähikauppa
• Improving price competitiveness
• Some 300 K-Menu private label products
• K-Myllypuro boldly tests different food store concepts and models
• Kantar: Store of the Week in the World
• Digital services, such as K-ruoka app
13
GROCERY TRADE PERFORMANCE, TREND
14
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net sales Volume index
• Market share of the K-Group’s
building and home improvement
stores has strengthened in Finland,
Norway, the Baltic countries and
Russia
• In Finland, market share has
strengthened by some +1 pp
• Profitablity has improved in 10
consecutive quarters
HOME IMPROVEMENT AND SPECIALITY GOODS
TRADE
15
• Net sales €3,351m, comparable
change +1.6%
• Operating profit* €60m (1.8%)
• ROCE* 7%
*excl. non-rec. items
Q4/2014-Q3/2015
15
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
16
SALES, CHANGE %,
IN LOCAL CURRENCIES
1-11/2015*
OPERATING PROFIT
EXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS
%
€m
*excl. Anttila
-0.8
3.1
1.8
-1.4
-1.2
3.9
8.7
1.8
2.8
-0.9
6.1
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF BUILDING AND HOME
IMPROVEMENT TRADE
• Kesko #5 Europe – strong potential to grow organically or through
acquisitions
• We offer excellent services from a single store network to three different
customer segments
• Business customers
• Project customers
• Consumer customers
• Common core for all operating countries to ensure operating efficiency
• We offer the best digital services on all channels
17
• In November, VW #2 in new
registrations of passenger cars
• Remedial solution proposals of NOx
vehicles have been presented to
and approved by the authorities
• Repair campaign will start in
Finland next spring, mainly as
software updates
CAR TRADE
18
• Net sales €745m, -3.0%
• Operating profit* €27m (3.7%)
• ROCE* 29%
*excl. non-rec. items
Q4/2014-Q3/2015
18
19
SALES, CHANGE %,
1-11/2015
OPERATING PROFIT
EXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS
-11.4
-5.3
4.6
-2.5
-9.0
1.3
-2.1
-4.8
-0.1
0.2
-7.3
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
€m
NEW REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARS
IN FINLAND
20
Soure: Statistics Finland
NEW REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARS
14.12.2015
Brand December
December
mo % Prev. Prev. mo %
Change in
month, % Cum Cum. mo % Cum prev. Prev. mo %
K
u
VOLKSWAGEN 435 13,2 827 11,7 10,5 12 209 11,7 12 988 12,2
TOYOTA 404 12,2 836 11,8 1,5 11 738 11,3 12 558 11,8
FORD 308 9,3 436 6,1 48,4 8 309 8,0 7 424 7,0
SKODA 283 8,6 589 8,3 0,9 9 528 9,1 9 649 9,1
VOLVO 263 8,0 575 8,1 -3,9 7 036 6,8 7 695 7,2
OPEL 155 4,7 193 2,7 68,7 5 252 5,0 4 507 4,2
RENAULT 151 4,6 297 4,2 6,8 2 414 2,3 1 737 1,6
KIA 138 4,2 268 3,8 8,2 6 337 6,1 6 028 5,7
AUDI 137 4,1 496 7,0 -42,0 5 122 4,9 6 285 5,9
NISSAN 132 4,0 342 4,8 -18,9 7 102 6,8 6 437 6,1
HYUNDAI 129 3,9 107 1,5 153,2 2 593 2,5 2 158 2,0
BMW 121 3,7 465 6,6 -45,3 4 547 4,4 5 025 4,7
MERCEDES-BENZ 119 3,6 525 7,4 -52,4 4 882 4,7 5 631 5,3
DACIA 80 2,4 127 1,8 32,3 1 174 1,1 1 358 1,3
PEUGEOT 78 2,4 225 3,2 -27,2 2 652 2,5 2 591 2,4
HONDA 69 2,1 161 2,3 -10,0 2 437 2,3 2 934 2,8
SEAT 57 1,7 159 2,2 -24,7 1 598 1,5 1 801 1,7
CITROEN 54 1,6 152 2,1 -25,4 1 964 1,9 2 257 2,1
MAZDA 41 1,2 54 0,8 59,5 1 596 1,5 1 727 1,6
SUBARU 33 1,0 48 0,7 44,4 1 161 1,1 1 003 0,9
SUZUKI 24 0,7 14 0,2 260,1 642 0,6 648 0,6
MITSUBISHI 23 0,7 82 1,2 -41,1 1 664 1,6 1 578 1,5
FIAT 13 0,4 9 0,1 203,4 178 0,2 195 0,2
LEXUS 11 0,3 20 0,3 15,5 207 0,2 196 0,2
Total 3 307 100,0 7 091 100,0 -2,0 104 231 100,0 106 281 100,0
VV-AUTO TOTAL 629 19,0 1 482 20,9 -15,1 18 929 18,1 21 074 19,8
CUSTOMER ORDER BACKLOG
22
4 561
5 146
5 4055 353
4 956
4 5704 4814 572
5 168
5 6035 5425 405
4 615
5 018
5 3655 313
4 827
4 598
4 0144 015
4 655
5 208
4 8545 014
4 666
5 188
5 7835 639
4 893
4 353
3 7903 946
4 934
5 669
5 380
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
01/13
03/13
05/13
07/13
09/13
11/13
01/14
03/14
05/14
07/14
09/14
11/14
1/15
3/15
5/15
7/15
9/15
11/15
Customer order backlog (pcs) Rolling average 12 mth (pcs)
Kesko Analyst meeting 181215

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Kesko Analyst meeting 181215

  • 3. 3 Net sales, €m 9,285 9,235 9,166 9,071 9,024 8,881 8,780 Gross margin, % 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.3 Operating profit*, €m 239.3 237.2 237.6 232.6 240.0 248.8 247.2 EPS*, basic, € 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.65 1.69 1.72 1.66 Liquid assets, €m 532 461 503 598 506 843 858 Return on capital employed*, % 9.9 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.2 10.9 11.3 Equity ratio, % 53.2 52.3 54.2 54.5 51.5 52.2 54.2 Capital expenditure, €m 173 181 197 194 202 205 195 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 *Excl. non.recurring items KESKO’S KEY FIGURES, ROLLING 12 MONTHS
  • 4. 4 OPERATING MARGIN BY DIVISION EXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS Q1/ 2014 Q2/ 2014 Q3/ 2014 Q4/ 2014 Q1/ 2015 Q2/ 2015 Q3/ 2015 Grocery trade 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.9 3.2 3.8 3.8 Home improvement and speciality goods trade -4.1 1.0 2.2 0.4 -1.8 3.9 4.2 Car trade 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.0 4.7 3.4 3.5 Total 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.7 1.3 3.4 3.7
  • 5. KESKO GROUP’S SALES 1–11/2015 5 1.1. - 30.11.2015 Change, % € million Change, % in local currencies excl. Anttila Grocery trade, total 4,250.8 -1.7 -0.9 Home improvement and speciality goods trade, Finland 1,639.3 -12.5 -1.2 Home improvement and speciality goods trade, other countries 1,448.8 -3.5 +5.6 Home improvement and speciality goods trade, total 3,088.1 -8.5 +2.1 Car trade, total 707.7 -3.5 -3.5 Grand total 8,054.2 -4.3 0.0 Finland, total 6,512.2 -4.5 -1.8 Other countries, total 1,542.0 -3.4 +7.4 Grand total 8,054.2 -4.3 0.0
  • 6. STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION 6 Liquid assets €858m €503m Interest bearing net liabilities €-394m €-3m Equity ratio 54.2% 54.2% Q3/2015 Q3/2014
  • 7. 7 ROCE AND ROE EXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS, % 12.4 14.7 10.2 7.4 14.0 13.1 9.0 9.8 9.9 11.3 14.0 10.0 14.6 8.1 3.8 8.7 8.8 6.9 7.7 7.6 8.0 12.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3/2015 target ROCE ROE 7
  • 8. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN STRATEGIC GROWTH AREAS • Grocery trade • Building and home improvement trade • Car trade • Capital expenditure in range of €250 million / year, excluding possible acquisitions • Also acquisitions are considered in all three strategic growth areas 8
  • 9. KEY STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES 9 • Turning the market share in the Finnish grocery trade around • Increasing the building and home improvement trade in Europe • Strengthening the market leadership in the Finnish car trade • The best omni-channel customer experience in the trading sector • One unified Kesko, harvesting synergies
  • 10. KESKO TO INVEST IN FINLAND BY ACQUIRING SUOMEN LÄHIKAUPPA • Kesko has made an agreement to acquire the whole share capital of Suomen Lähikauppa Oy from the private equity investment firm Triton • Net sales of Suomen Lähikauppa in 2014 were €999.2 million • Suomen Lähikauppa has 643 neighbourhood stores and 4,100 employees • Transaction price of the debt-free acquisition, structured as a share purchase, is approximately €60 million • Kesko estimates that its capital expenditure in 2015-2017 will decrease from the approximately €1 billion announced in the strategy to €750 million, excluding possible acquisitions 10
  • 11. GROCERY TRADE 11 • Net sales €4,684m, change in local currencies -1.5% • Operating profit* €185m (4.0%) • ROCE* 20% *excl. non-rec. items Q4/2014-Q3/2015 (12 months) 11 • Strengthening of competitiveness is progressing as planned • Price trend in Finnish grocery trade continues to decline (-1%) • Sales in Russia in 1-9/2015, change in local currency +34.5%, in euros -2.4%
  • 12. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 12 SALES, CHANGE %, IN LOCAL CURRENCIES 1-11/2015 OPERATING PROFIT EXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS -4.5 0.6 7.6 -6.0 -3.3 -0.9 -1.1 0.5 -0.4 -2.2 0.5 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 % €m
  • 13. PROGRESS OF GROCERY TRADE STRATEGY • Expansion and renewal of store site network and renewal of concepts • Acquisition of Suomen Lähikauppa • Improving price competitiveness • Some 300 K-Menu private label products • K-Myllypuro boldly tests different food store concepts and models • Kantar: Store of the Week in the World • Digital services, such as K-ruoka app 13
  • 14. GROCERY TRADE PERFORMANCE, TREND 14 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net sales Volume index
  • 15. • Market share of the K-Group’s building and home improvement stores has strengthened in Finland, Norway, the Baltic countries and Russia • In Finland, market share has strengthened by some +1 pp • Profitablity has improved in 10 consecutive quarters HOME IMPROVEMENT AND SPECIALITY GOODS TRADE 15 • Net sales €3,351m, comparable change +1.6% • Operating profit* €60m (1.8%) • ROCE* 7% *excl. non-rec. items Q4/2014-Q3/2015 15
  • 16. -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 16 SALES, CHANGE %, IN LOCAL CURRENCIES 1-11/2015* OPERATING PROFIT EXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS % €m *excl. Anttila -0.8 3.1 1.8 -1.4 -1.2 3.9 8.7 1.8 2.8 -0.9 6.1 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
  • 17. STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF BUILDING AND HOME IMPROVEMENT TRADE • Kesko #5 Europe – strong potential to grow organically or through acquisitions • We offer excellent services from a single store network to three different customer segments • Business customers • Project customers • Consumer customers • Common core for all operating countries to ensure operating efficiency • We offer the best digital services on all channels 17
  • 18. • In November, VW #2 in new registrations of passenger cars • Remedial solution proposals of NOx vehicles have been presented to and approved by the authorities • Repair campaign will start in Finland next spring, mainly as software updates CAR TRADE 18 • Net sales €745m, -3.0% • Operating profit* €27m (3.7%) • ROCE* 29% *excl. non-rec. items Q4/2014-Q3/2015 18
  • 19. 19 SALES, CHANGE %, 1-11/2015 OPERATING PROFIT EXCL. NON-REC. ITEMS -11.4 -5.3 4.6 -2.5 -9.0 1.3 -2.1 -4.8 -0.1 0.2 -7.3 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 % 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 €m
  • 20. NEW REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARS IN FINLAND 20 Soure: Statistics Finland
  • 21. NEW REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARS 14.12.2015 Brand December December mo % Prev. Prev. mo % Change in month, % Cum Cum. mo % Cum prev. Prev. mo % K u VOLKSWAGEN 435 13,2 827 11,7 10,5 12 209 11,7 12 988 12,2 TOYOTA 404 12,2 836 11,8 1,5 11 738 11,3 12 558 11,8 FORD 308 9,3 436 6,1 48,4 8 309 8,0 7 424 7,0 SKODA 283 8,6 589 8,3 0,9 9 528 9,1 9 649 9,1 VOLVO 263 8,0 575 8,1 -3,9 7 036 6,8 7 695 7,2 OPEL 155 4,7 193 2,7 68,7 5 252 5,0 4 507 4,2 RENAULT 151 4,6 297 4,2 6,8 2 414 2,3 1 737 1,6 KIA 138 4,2 268 3,8 8,2 6 337 6,1 6 028 5,7 AUDI 137 4,1 496 7,0 -42,0 5 122 4,9 6 285 5,9 NISSAN 132 4,0 342 4,8 -18,9 7 102 6,8 6 437 6,1 HYUNDAI 129 3,9 107 1,5 153,2 2 593 2,5 2 158 2,0 BMW 121 3,7 465 6,6 -45,3 4 547 4,4 5 025 4,7 MERCEDES-BENZ 119 3,6 525 7,4 -52,4 4 882 4,7 5 631 5,3 DACIA 80 2,4 127 1,8 32,3 1 174 1,1 1 358 1,3 PEUGEOT 78 2,4 225 3,2 -27,2 2 652 2,5 2 591 2,4 HONDA 69 2,1 161 2,3 -10,0 2 437 2,3 2 934 2,8 SEAT 57 1,7 159 2,2 -24,7 1 598 1,5 1 801 1,7 CITROEN 54 1,6 152 2,1 -25,4 1 964 1,9 2 257 2,1 MAZDA 41 1,2 54 0,8 59,5 1 596 1,5 1 727 1,6 SUBARU 33 1,0 48 0,7 44,4 1 161 1,1 1 003 0,9 SUZUKI 24 0,7 14 0,2 260,1 642 0,6 648 0,6 MITSUBISHI 23 0,7 82 1,2 -41,1 1 664 1,6 1 578 1,5 FIAT 13 0,4 9 0,1 203,4 178 0,2 195 0,2 LEXUS 11 0,3 20 0,3 15,5 207 0,2 196 0,2 Total 3 307 100,0 7 091 100,0 -2,0 104 231 100,0 106 281 100,0 VV-AUTO TOTAL 629 19,0 1 482 20,9 -15,1 18 929 18,1 21 074 19,8
  • 22. CUSTOMER ORDER BACKLOG 22 4 561 5 146 5 4055 353 4 956 4 5704 4814 572 5 168 5 6035 5425 405 4 615 5 018 5 3655 313 4 827 4 598 4 0144 015 4 655 5 208 4 8545 014 4 666 5 188 5 7835 639 4 893 4 353 3 7903 946 4 934 5 669 5 380 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 01/13 03/13 05/13 07/13 09/13 11/13 01/14 03/14 05/14 07/14 09/14 11/14 1/15 3/15 5/15 7/15 9/15 11/15 Customer order backlog (pcs) Rolling average 12 mth (pcs)