Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk<br />Theme 2 Strategy 2011-2015<br />Jim Hansen<br />
The Problem<br />Climate-related risk impedes development<br />Downside risk<br />Opportunity cost<br />Affects farmers, m...
The Opportunity<br />Under-exploited opportunities to better manage climate risk<br />Immediate win-win actions to build c...
Conceptual Framework<br />Improved, climate-informed responses<br />Resilient food systems,<br />Improved food security<br...
Target: food trade, crisis response, policy – global & focus regions</li></ul>Fill key gaps:<br /><ul><li>Knowledge
Tools & Methods
Evidence
Capacity
Coordination</li></ul>Enhanced climate services<br />Objective 3: <br />Climate Information and Services<br /><ul><li>Goal...
Target: climate community, communication intermediaries, users (O1 & O2)</li></ul>Enhanced climate services<br />Objective...
Target: rural communities & markets; supporting institutions & policies</li></ul>Enhanced support for managing risk<br />R...
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CCAFS Theme 2 Strategy: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk - Jim Hansen

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Presented by Jim Hansen, CCAFS Theme Leader, at CG Contact Point Meeting in Bonn, 9 June 2011.

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  • Jim, I split this one into two slides so that the graph was not on top of the writing – and can be a printed file.
  • I
  • Whatever you do to Objective 1 needs to be reflected in Objective 2But, this is nice and simple
  • Same comment as for Objective 2Best to not have the last bullet point on top of the picture.
  • CCAFS Theme 2 Strategy: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk - Jim Hansen

    1. 1. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk<br />Theme 2 Strategy 2011-2015<br />Jim Hansen<br />
    2. 2. The Problem<br />Climate-related risk impedes development<br />Downside risk<br />Opportunity cost<br />Affects farmers, markets, “relief trap”<br />Source of chronic poverty, vulnerability<br />Increasing climate variability anticipated<br />FORFEITED<br />OPPORTUNITY<br />HARDSHIP<br />CRISIS<br />
    3. 3. The Opportunity<br />Under-exploited opportunities to better manage climate risk<br />Immediate win-win actions to build climate resilience<br />CG-relevant synergies<br />Key hypotheses:<br />Make agriculture more resilient to future climate change.<br />Reduce impediments to structural adaptations to future climatic shifts.<br />
    4. 4. Conceptual Framework<br />Improved, climate-informed responses<br />Resilient food systems,<br />Improved food security<br />Scale<br />Objective 2: <br />Food System Risk Management<br /><ul><li>Goal: Enhanced food security
    5. 5. Target: food trade, crisis response, policy – global & focus regions</li></ul>Fill key gaps:<br /><ul><li>Knowledge
    6. 6. Tools & Methods
    7. 7. Evidence
    8. 8. Capacity
    9. 9. Coordination</li></ul>Enhanced climate services<br />Objective 3: <br />Climate Information and Services<br /><ul><li>Goal: Enhance products and services to support food security and rural livelihoods
    10. 10. Target: climate community, communication intermediaries, users (O1 & O2)</li></ul>Enhanced climate services<br />Objective 1: <br />Local–level Risk Management<br /><ul><li>Goal: Resilient rural livelihoods
    11. 11. Target: rural communities & markets; supporting institutions & policies</li></ul>Enhanced support for managing risk<br />Resilient rural livelihoods<br />GENDER & EQITY LENS<br />
    12. 12. Climate-Resilient Rural Livelihoods<br />Under-exploited, scalable risk management innovations<br />Technology evaluation & targeting, not development<br />PAR at benchmark locations<br />Knowledge synthesis<br />Designed Diversification<br />Index-Based Risk Transfer<br />Anticipatory Management<br />Technology Evaluation<br />Scalable Indigenous CRM<br />
    13. 13. Illustrative Research<br />Index-based insurance<br />Targeting, design<br />Developing better indexes<br />Advance information for adaptive management<br />Designed diversification<br />Scalable, transferrable indigenous risk management<br />Household-level risk/resilience design & ex-ante evaluation<br />
    14. 14. Food System Risk Management<br />Understand climate impacts on food security<br />Climate-sensitive decisions<br />Information an entry point for improving processes<br />Knowledge sharing, coordination<br />New food system partnerships<br />Manage price volatility<br />Food crisis response<br />Food security safety nets<br />Post-crisis recovery<br />Improved early warning (O3)<br />Platform for coordination<br />Marcus Prior, WFP<br />
    15. 15. Illustrative Research<br />Food system – farm household cross-scale interactions<br />Impact of climate fluctuations on food security components<br />Drivers, impacts, management of price volatility<br />Costs vs. timing of alternative food security interventions<br />Institutional arrangements for regional food security planning, coordination<br />
    16. 16. Climate Information Products, Services<br />Climate information products:<br />Address critical gaps<br />Prediction of agricultural production, biological threats<br />Climate services<br />Institutional arrangements<br />Capacity of providers<br />Capacity to respond (O1, O2)<br />Historic data reconstruction<br />Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast information<br />Monitor & forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases<br />Institutional arrangements<br />Communication processes<br />Curricula, training<br />
    17. 17. Illustrative Research<br />Overcoming data scarcity as a constraint to CRM<br />Predicting climate impacts on crops, forage, biological threats<br />Tailoring climate information to decision-making<br />Scalable, sustainable, equitable delivery mechanisms<br />Agriculture & food security regional climate service roadmaps<br />
    18. 18. Key Results in 2010<br />Regional reviews of climate services for agriculture<br />Regional evaluation of rural information delivery systems for climate-related services<br />Climate and food security management scoping and strategy development<br />Historic daily rainfall data reconstruction<br />Remote sensing data assimilation for crop forecasting<br />Modeling climate impacts on biological threats<br />
    19. 19. Major Activities in 2011<br />CRM participatory demonstrations (equity/gender lens)<br />Knowledge synthesis: insurance; diversification<br />Household modeling of risk & resilience<br />Food system stakeholder consultations & strategy<br />Food security analyses: climate impacts on food security components; costs of alternative interventions<br />Climate service synthesis, gaps, opportunities<br />Address gaps: historic data, tailored climate forecasts<br />Crop forecasting methodology and capacity<br />
    20. 20. Major Challenges<br />Balancing local impact with transferrable IPGs<br />Effective, sustained engagement and resourcing of non-traditional CG partners<br />

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