Bart Minten, IFPRI Expert consultation on trade and nutrition 15-16 November 2016, FAO Headquarters, Rome http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-events-new/tradenutrition/en/

1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Rural roads, welfare and nutrition
David Stifel (Lafayette College) and Bart Minten (IFPRI)
1

2. Background
• Average calorie
consumption 9% higher
in last decade
• Poverty declined from
55% to 33% (1.9 USD
per day)
• Stunting of children
reduced from 57% to
40% (2000 – 2014)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2005 2011
Kcal/day/adultequivalent
cereals non-cereals

3. 3
Background
• Important changes in Ethiopia in market access during that period
1996/1997 2010/2011

4. 4
The Question:
What are the impacts of
improved market access on
household well-being and
nutrition?
To what can we attribute
these impacts?

5. 5
Data
• Sample area selected purposefully
o Homogeneous region
o Except for transport costs
o Without a road
• Households’ circumstances differ because of
different transport costs…
…not because of land characteristics, etc.

6. 6

7. 7
Market Access – Transport Costs
• Donkey costs (Birr/kg)
o Cost of renting donkey
o Weight donkey can carry
• Economic transport costs
o Include the opportunity
cost of time

8. 8
Household Per Capita Consumption &
Market Access
0
500
1000150020002500
Birr/person
0 20 40 60 80
Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Per Capita Household Consumption Food
Non-Food

9. 9
Food Security
0
.1.2.3
Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote
Worry Not Enough Food in Past 30 Days
1-2 Times 3-10 Times
10+ Times

10. 10
Food Security
0
.1.2.3
Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote
Ate Fewer Meals in Past 30 Days
1-2 Times 3-10 Times
10+ Times
0
.1.2.3
PercentofHouseholds
Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote
Ate Smaller Meals in Past 30 Days
1-2 Times 3-10 Times
10+ Times

11. 11
Dietary Diversity
0123456
0 20 40 60 80
Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
All Household Members Chldren under age 5
Average Number of Food Groups in Household Diet

12. 12
Child Stunting-6-2
026
0 20 40 60 80
Transport Costs (Birr/Quintal)
bandwidth = .8
Stunting: HAZ < -2
• 36 percent stunted
• Statistically not
different by
remoteness

13. 13
What can explain the relationship between
market access and wellbeing?
1. Agricultural Production
2. Terms of trade
o Marketed surplus
o Purchased consumption items

14. 14
Value of HH Agric Production
0
200040006000
Birr
0 20 40 60 80
Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Total Production Cereals
Oilseeds Vegetables
Despite similarities in
land productivity…

15. 15
Household Marketed Surplus
0
200040006000
Birr
0 20 40 60 80
Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Total Production Marketed Surplus
Own Consumption

16. 16
Household Food Consumption & Market
Access
0
500
1000150020002500
Birr/person
0 20 40 60 80
Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Per Capita Food Consumption Purchased
Own-Consumption

17. 17
Household Food Purchases
0
10002000300040005000
Birr
0 20 40 60 80
Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Total Food Purchases Meat
Beverages Cereals
Spices (incl salt & sugar)

18. 18
Nutrition knowledge and its impact on
children’s dietary diversity

19. 19
Conclusions
Households with greater
market access have…
• Greater consumption
• More food security
• Greater dietary
diversity

20. 20
Conclusions
These differences may be
attributed to…
• Greater agricultural
production
• Improved terms of trade
that result in increased…
o Marketed agricultural
surplus
o Purchased consumption
goods

21. 21
Conclusions
• But, no discernable effects on nutrition outcomes
• Why?
o Number of food groups low for all households
o Food consumption alone is not enough to affect
nutrition outcomes
o Limited access to clean water, sanitation & healthcare
throughout the survey area
o Knowledge on nutrition impact, but more impact if
closer to market