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1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 11 NOVEMBER 2014
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
% CHG
VOL
MONTH
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
% CHG
VOL
DHANIYA
DEC
12130
12330
12081
12320
+1.34
19250
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP.1
12157
SUPP. 2
11995
PIVOT
12244
Dhaniya shortterm trend is up , further more upsideis expected in comimg days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
12406
RES. 2
12493
CASTORSEED
DEC
4800
4865
4788
4804
-0.15
163580
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
4773
SUPP. 2
4742
PIVOT
4819
Castorseed short term trend is up,Prices expected to go up in coming days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
4850
RES. 2
4896
TURMERIC
DEC
6474
6554
6394
6458
+0.16
7770
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
6383
SUPP. 2
6309
PIVOT
6469
Turmeric shortterm trend is up and may continue in coming days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
6543
RES. 2
6629
GUARGUM
DEC
14860
14920
14630
14710
-0.47
7725
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
14587
SUPP. 2
14463
PIVOT
14753
Guargum Short term trend is downExpecting price may go downin coming days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
14877
RES. 2
15043

3. Most Active Contract
3
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL
EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE %
CORIANDER
19-12-2014
12320
163.00
+1.34%
MUSTARD SEED
19-12-2014
3833
41.00
+1.08%
CHANA
19-12-2014
3201
32.00
+1.01%
TURMERIC
19-12-2014
6458
10.00
+0.16%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL
EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE %
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE AKOLA
19-12-2014
1345.00
-23.00
-1.68%
SOYABEAN
19-12-2014
3295
-35.00
-1.05
GUARSEED 10 MT
19-12-2014
5185
-35.00
-0.67
BARELY
19-12-2014
1617
-10.5.00
-0.65
GUARGUM
20-11-2014
14710
-70.00
-0.47%
REFINED SOY OIL
20-11-2014
586.00
-1.85
-0.31%
NCDEX INDICES
Index
Value
Pre. Close
% Change
CASTORSEED
4815
4812
0.06
CHANA
3166
3156
0.33
CORIANDER
12176
12359
-1.48
GUARGUM
14780
14610
+1.16
JEERA
11795
11345
+3.97
MUSTARD SEED
3800
3749
+1.36
SOYABEAN
3326
3294
+0.97
TURMERIC
6430
6292
+2.19

4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
India’simportbillonaccountofedibleoilsisexpectedtotouch$15billionasagainstus$9.3billionduring2013-14dueto10%shortfallintheoilseedsproductioninKhariffimpactedbytheElNinoeffect,revealstheASSOCHAMlatestfindings. ThestudybroughtoutbytheASSOCHAMAgriResearchWinghasrevealedthatthemajorthreeKhariffoilseedsvizsunflower,groundnutandsoyabeanwouldwitnessafallinproductionrespectivelyby35%,31%and1%.Asofnow(tillOctobermid),Indiahasimportedmorethanhalfofitsdomesticedibleoilrequirements,addstheASSOCHAMpaper. Theimmediateimpactofwitnessingsuchashortfallintheproductionofgroundnutandsunflowerisduetothevolatilityintheirshortrunpricemovements.However,pricesofedibleoilssinceApril2014revealthattherehasbeennoperceivablebuildupintheretailpricesofedibleoilsonthewholeinIndia.Theintegrationofdomesticmarketswithinternationalmarketshas,infact,resultedinreducingthepriceshocksofedibleoils.However,dependenceonimportshavemadeIndiafootinghighimportbillandinvitevolatilityintotheIndianmarket.Moreover,oilseedsandedibleoilmarketsarenotverticallyintegratedinIndia.Asaresult,thereexistsasymmetryinthetransmissionofpricesfromrawmaterialstofinalproductsandvice-versa.AnotherpeculiarityofIndianedibleoilmarketisthevolumeofedibleoilimportsisafunctionnotonlyofdemand,butalsoofspeculativetradingpositionsaswellasthecreditperiodandpaymentcycle.ThevulnerabilityofIndianedibleoilmarkettointernationalpricesaswellassupplychainimperfectionscanbeseenfromthestock-to-useratios.
Castorseedpricesfellby0.15percentonMondayattheNationalCommodity&DerivativesExchangeLimited(NCDEX)asaresultoffreshsupplyofthecommodityinthemajormandiesaswellasstrongproductionestimates.AttheNCDEX,castorseedfuturesforNovember2014contractwastradingatRs.4690perquintaltonnes, downby0.32percent,afteropeningatRs.4704againstthepreviousclosingpriceofRs.4790Ittouchedtheintra-daylowofRs.4,684tillthetrading.Castoroil,extractedfromcastorseedisthelargestvegetableoilexportedoutofIndia.Indiaisthebiggestexporterofcastoroilholdingabout70percentshareoftheinternationaltradeinthiscommodityfollowedbyChina&Brazil.
Riceprocurementbygovernmentagenciesislaggingbehindby8percentat9.2milliontonnesintheongoing2014-15marketingyearsofarfromthelastyear'slevelof10milliontonnesduringthesameperiod.State-runFoodCorporationofIndia(FCI)andstateagenciesundertakeprocurementofriceandwheattoensurefarmersgetaminimumsupportprice(MSP).RicemarketingyearrunsfromOctobertoSeptember.Annualprocurementtargetforthisyearis30milliontonnes."MostprocurementiscurrentlygoingoninPunjabandHaryana.Procurementinotherstateswillbeginastheharvestingprogresses,"aseniorFCIofficialtoldPTI.
Indiahad30.1milliontonnesofwheatingovernmentwarehousesasofNov.1,governmentofficialssaidonMonday,morethandoubletheofficialtargetwhichraisestheprospectofoverseasshipmentsfromtheworld'ssecond-largestproducer.Bumperharvestssince2007haveledtohugestockpilesofriceandwheatwiththegovernment,whichbuysfromfarmerstomeetemergenciesandforwelfareprogrammesprovidingsubsidisedfoodtothepoor.India'smilledriceinventoryatthebeginningofNovemberwas13.7milliontonnesagainstatargetof7.2million,theofficialssaidonconditionofanonymity.

5. 5
FundamentalWatch : Castor seed
CASTOR SEED ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT MARKET
CastorcashmarkettradedmixedonMonday.Despiteweakinnertoneinmid-OctandbettercropoutlooksupportedbyhigherareacoveragecastorseedanditsproductstradedfirmandfirmnessislikelytocontinueinthemonthofNovembertoo.However, downwardcorrectionatcurrentlevelisexpected.Shortsupplyofseedwasexpectedearlierduetolowerproductionanditmaysupportmarkettotradefirminthenearandmediumterm.ArrivalsfromnewcropstartedtricklinginmajormarketsofGujaratbutvolumeisnegligible.ThepressuremaybefeltbyDecemberendandwillcontinueuptoApril.ProductionofseedinGujaratmayslightlydecreaseinSurenderNagar,KutchandMorbithisyearduetoshortageofwaterduringvegetativestage.Someinfestationinfruitsmayimpactyieldby10percent.However,inotherregionofGujaratoverallcropconditionisaveragetogoodsofar.Tradersareoftheviewthatproductionwouldbehigherbecauseofhigherareathisyear.Theyexpect14.5lakhtonnecastorseedproductionthisyearagainst(around12lakhtonne)lastyear.Areaundercastorseedwasrecordedat10.35lakhha.on10thOct,2014against9.84lakhhacoveredinlastyear.Itis52thousandhahigherthanlastyear. MajorbuyerslikeChina,EUandUSmayincreasebuyinginincreasingmarket.LastweekFOBquotesinKandlahoverintherangeof$1515pertonne.DemandfromChina,EU,USandJapanislikelytocontinuewithnormalpacetillDecember.However,majorbuyersmayrestrictbuyinginJan,FebandMarchandwouldtrytoanalyseemergingscenarioforthenextmarketingseasonasusual.
CENTER
10-Nov-14
08-Nov-14
%Change
SUMERPUR
80
80
UNCH
JODHPUR
160
80
80
RAJKOT
525
440
85
GONDAL
147
NA
-
PATAN
4620
NA
-
DEESA
800
906
-106

6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY DHANIYA DEC ABOVE 12340 TGTS 12370,12420 SL 12290
SELL GUARGUM DEC BELOW 14620 TGTS 14570,14470 SL 14710
BUY CASTORSEED DEC ABOVE 4865 TGTS 4895,4945 SL 4815
BUY TMC DEC ABOVE 3505 TGTS 3535,3585 SL 3455

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