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1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 28 OCTOBER 2014
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
% CHG
VOL
MONTH
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
% CHG
VOL
DHANIYA
NOV
111851
11970
11851
11905
-0.22
6890
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP.1
11847
SUPP. 2
11490
PIVOT
11909
Dhaniya shortterm trend is down, further more downsideis expected in comimg days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
11966
RES. 2
12028
CASTORSEED
NOV
4718
4730
4629
4645
-1.55
116430
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
4606
SUPP. 2
4567
PIVOT
4668
Castorseed short term trend is up,Prices expected to go up in coming days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
4707
RES. 2
4769
TURMERIC
NOV
6106
6118
5954
6034
-0.63
3480
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
5953
SUPP. 2
5871
PIVOT
6035
Turmeric shortterm trend is down and may continue in coming days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
6117
RES. 2
6199
GUARGUM
NOV
15850
16100
15750
15830
+0.57
4618
INTRADAY LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
15687
SUPP. 2
15543
PIVOT
15893
Guargum Short term trend is downExpecting price may go downin coming days.
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
16037
RES. 2
16243

3. Most Active Contract
3
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL
EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE %
JEERA
20-11-2014
11440.00
170.00
1.51%
GUR
20-11-2014
978.00
13.00
1.35%
CHANA
20-11-2014
2966.00
39.00
1.33%
SOYABEAN
20-11-2014
3087.00
25.00
0.82%
REFINED SOY OIL
20-11-2014
584.30
2.05
0.35%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD SEED
20-11-2014
3688.00
3.00
0.08%
CORIANDER
20-11-2014
11905.00
8.00
0.07%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL
EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE %
CASTOR SEED NEW
20-11-2014
4645.00
-78.00
-1.65%
TURMERIC
20-11-2014
6034.00
-56.00
-0.92%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE AKOLA
19-12-2014
1355.00
-1.00
-0.07%
NCDEX INDICES
Index
Value
Pre. Close
% Change
CASTORSEED
4645
4718
-1.55
CHANA
2966
2925
+1.40
CORIANDER
11905
11931
-0.22
SUGAR
2777
2786
-0.32
JEERA
11440
11280
+1.42
MUSTARD SEED
3688
3691
-0.08
SOYABEAN
3087
3063
+0.78
TURMERIC
6034
6072
-0.63

4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
India'ssugarstockshavedeclinedby25percentto6.92milliontonnesatthebeginningofthenewmarketingyearthatstartedthismonthduetoloweroutputandhigherexportslastyear.Sugarstocksstoodat9.3milliontonnes(MT)asonOctober12013.ThemarketingyearrunsfromOctober-September.Althoughthestocksofsweetenerhavereduced,theyarestillnearly2MThigherthanwhatisrequiredformeetingthedomesticdemandtillproductionfromnewcrushingseasoncomesintothemarket.Accordingtogovernmentestimatessugarstocksstoodat6.92MTasonOctober1,2014,sourcessaid.ThisislowerthantheIndianSugarMillsAssociation(ISMA)projectionof7.4MTofopeningstockatthestartofthismonth.ThestockshavecomedownsignificantlyassugaroutputofIndia,theworld'ssecondlargestproducer,fellto24.3MTin2013-14marketingyearfrom25.1MTinthepreviousyear.
FinanceMinisterArunJaitleyisfairlyconfidentthegovernmentwillmeetthisyear'sfiscaldeficittarget.At4.1percentofgrossdomesticproductthedeficitlookedlookedlikeabitofstretchinJulybutthefoodsubsidy,forone,isnotgoingtoballoonasinpreviousyears.ThenationwiderolloutoftheambitiousNationalFoodSecurityActhasbeenputoffbysixmonths,anditsRs15,000croreextraburdenwillbeborneinthenextfinancialyear.In2014-15,theentitlementofsubsidisedgraintotwo-thirdsofthecountry'spopulationisavailableinonly11-oddstatesandthattoonotinitsentirety.TheNationalDemocraticAlliancehasalsobroughtfreshthinkingintograinprocurementthatmighthalvethefoodsubsidyspilloverintothenextyear.
Castorseedarrivalsinspotmarketshasincreased.Whilestocksandproductionisexpectedtogrowthisyear.Exportdemandmayremainweakwithcastors.ThesefactorsledtovigorousCastorseedpricesarelikelytofall. AccordingtoexpertsatRs4,200perquintalinfuturesmarketpricescouldsplitcastors.CastorseedNCDEXNovemberfuturesdeclinedby1.55percenttoRs4,650perquintalhasslippeddown.AsimilardeclineintheDecemberfuturesisbeingrecorded.Castseedofstockinwarehousesnearly53%isahugeincrease.Patan,KadiandDisastockhasincreasedmostinthewarehouses.RoofingonOctober17,KadiandDisainwarehousesrespectively:17876tonnes,11369tonnesand8863tonnesofthestockhasincreasedCastrseed.Castrseedsteepriseinstockpricesinthedomesticmarketisexpectedtodeclinestrenuous.
Chanasettledupby0.24%at2925duetoincreaseddemandaheadandariseinlocalconsumptioninthepeakfestivalseason.Further,expectationsofdeclineinoutputfromthemajorproducingbeltstoosupportedchanaprices. NationalAgriculturalCooperativeMarketingFederationofIndia(NAFED) hasstocksaround250,000tonswhichcouldweighonmarketsentiments. Furtherimportsof19containerscontainingyellowpeasisexpectedwhichcouldkeepthesupplybountifulinthemarket.ThegovernmenthasallowedzerodutyimportofchanaforthreemoremonthstillDec31.NAFEDhasdeclaredthatoutof123,415tonschanastoredinmorethan45warehousesofRajasthan,theagencyplanstosellaround1,000tonperday.Agricultureministryhasestimatedchanarecordoutputat9.88milliontonupfrom8.83milliontonayearago.Lowerpricesonthebackofrecordoutputandcomfortablesuppliesmayforcefarmerstoswitchovertootherremunerativecropssuchasmustardandcorianderwhichcouldyieldbetterreturns.

5. 5
FundamentalWatch : Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational & International Market Updates
Steadysentimentsrecordedinkeysugarspotmarketstoday.Lacklustertradeandsluggishdemandledthepricessteadytoweakfortheday. TendersareinvitedbyKARNALCOOPERATIVESUGARMILLSLIMITEDfortransportationandloadingofsugarcaneforseason2014-15. Openingdateforthetenderhasbeenfixedat27thOctober,2014.
GurpricesfelldownandareexpectedtoscrolldownfurtheramidstgoodstockavailabilityintheMaharashtramarkets.ItisnotablethatcanehasdivertedmoretowardsgurproductioninPuneandSangliareathisyear.Inadditiontoit,marketparticipantsisexpectingearlyarrivalsofgurforthenextmarketingyearwhichdrivethepricessouthwardsinthemediumterm.
AfirebrokeoutinawarehouseatSantosportofBrazil,storingalmost50thousandtonsofsugarattime.Reportedly,theterminalcalledTEAG(ofwhichthewarehousewasaapart)isco-jointlyownedbyCargillandBiosev,thesugarunitofLouisDreyfusCommodities.Thoughtheimmediateeffectoftragedyisnotyetfeltonpricesbutisexpectedtoreducetheglobalglutpositioninnearterms.China’ssugarimportdeclined39%y-o-yfrom0.59milliontonsto0.36milliontonsinthemonthofSeptember.Similarly,adepreciatingdomesticcurrencyandamplestockbuildupwithinthenationcausedtotalimportstofallby17.8%to2.4milliontonsin2014(Jan-Sep).Totalaround14538bagsofgurstoredincoldstoragestill27thOct,2014lowercomparedto21599bagsatsameperiodlastyear.
CENTER
27-Oct-14
25-Oct-14
%Change
DELHI
3130
CLOSED
-
DHAMPUR
3080
3090
-10
MUMBAI
3026
NA
-
KOLHAPUR
2800
CLOSED
-
VIJAYWADA
3480
3480
UNCH
NAGPUR
3250
3250
UNCH
KOLKATA
NA
NA
-

6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY DHANIYA NOV ABOVE 11970 TGTS 12000,12050 SL 11920
BUY GUARGUM NOV ABOVE 15850 TGTS 15900,16000 SL 15760
SELL CASTORSEED NOV BELOW 4620 TGTS 4590,4540 SL 4670
BUY TMC NOV ABOVE 6060 TGTS 6110,6210 SL 5970

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