CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, nuclear negotiations, and regional conflicts closely. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. Below are the top three takeaways from the week: 1. Al Shabaab is very likely behind the suicide bomb attack on a Daallo Airlines flight in Mogadishu. The attack signals a major inflection in the group’s capabilities and intent, and al Shabaab will probably attempt a similar attack in the near future. The group is also strengthening on the ground, capitalizing on the redeployment of African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops after the January 15 el Adde attack. 2. A U.S. airstrike killed a top al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) commander in Abyan, Jalal Bal’idi al Marqishi, and sparked local clashes over his succession. However, AQAP has already demonstrated the ability to recover from leadership attrition, and the group seized two key towns in the days after the strike. AQAP continues to consolidate control of the populated areas along the main road from Aden, through Abyan and Shabwah, and to its stronghold in al Mukalla, Hadramawt. 3. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) Sahara Emirate conducted a complex attack on a UN police base housed in a hotel in Timbuktu. The group’s claim linked the attack to recent sieges on civilian targets in Ouagadougou and Bamako, indicating that AQIM intends to continue high-profile attacks on Western targets in the region, especially those that support the pending peace deal in northern Mali.

1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
February 9, 2016

2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
2
1
3
1. Al Shabaab is most likely responsible for a suicide bomb attack on a Daallo Airlines flight in Mogadishu,
signaling a step-change in the group’s capabilities and tactics.
2. A U.S. airstrike killed atop AQAP commander, but leadership attrition will not significantly disrupt AQAP’s
efforts to consolidate control of the primary road and population centers between Aden and al Mukalla.
3. AQIM’s Sahara Emirate conducted a complex attack on a UN police base housed in a hotel in Timbuktu,
demonstrating AQIM’s intent to continue high-profile attacks on Western targets in the region.
2

3. ASSESSMENT:
al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri appeared in a video posted on the forums by one of the users. The video was the fifth in
Zawahiri’s series, “Days with the Imam,” which ran from 2011-2015. The fourth video was released in May 2014 and the sixth
was released in July 2014. The video was likely filmed after the Syrian regime’s siege of Homs, Syria, and Zawahiri focused on
Maulvi Mohammed Noor’s role in helping besieged al Qaeda fighters escape Tora Bora.
Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns as al Qaeda leadership
attempts to counter ISIS messaging.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda Associates
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued its recent onslaught of attacks in Pakistan. A TTP suicide bomber killed at least 10
people, and wounded 35 others during an attack on the Pakistani Frontier Corps convoy in Quetta, Balochistan, on February 6,
2015. Muhammad Khorasani, the spokesman of TTP core claimed the attack.
A U.S. drone strike killed at least 18 TTP militants along the Paktika province in Afghanistan. The killed militants are believed to
be a part of the Sajna splinter faction of the TTP.
Outlook: Pakistani security forces are likely to increase security in the country, following the recent large-scale attacks.
3
AL QAEDA

4. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Isolated reports signal some friction within the al Houthi-Saleh alliance. An al Houthi commander executed three soldiers for
their attempted defection in Nihm, Sana’a, days after the reported defection of dozens of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah
Saleh’s Republican Guards. Meanwhile, rumors indicate that Saleh remains only loosely allied with the al Houthis would accept
President Hadi’s rule under certain conditions, though conditions likely unacceptable to Hadi and his coalition backers.
Outlook: The al Houthi-Saleh alliance remains unlikely to fragment, absent significant developments on the ground.
Security
Coalition forces claimed control of Midi port and the district in Hajjah in northwestern Yemen, denying the al Houthi-Saleh forces
the port access. Reports indicate that coalition-backed forces are now operating in additional ports along the Red Sea. The al
Houthis appear to be reinforcing their control in Sana’a, where they held a pro-al Houthi rally and increased the presence of
fighters on the streets. Pro-Hadi security forces clashed overtly with suspected AQAP militants in Aden in an effort to increase
government control over the city following a long string of assassinations and attacks on critical infrastructure.
Outlook: Fighting will continue along established frontlines as the Hadi government struggles to secure Aden.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP continues to consolidate control in southern Yemen. The group seized multiple population centers in Shabwah and
Abyan, increasing its control over a primary road between Aden and al Mukalla, Hadramawt, and asserted authority in al Hawta,
Lahij and Zinjibar, Abyan. A U.S. airstrike killed Jalal al Bal’idi al Marqishi, the leader of AQAP’s militant arm in Yemen and its
top commander in Abyan, sparking a local succession dispute.
Outlook: AQAP will continue to consolidate control in southern Yemen despite leadership attrition and local disputes.
4
YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
5
YEMENGULF OF ADEN
1) 04 FEB: A U.S.
airstrike killed Ansar
al Sharia commander
Jalal al Bal’idi al
Marqishi in Abyan.
2) 08 FEB: AQAP
factions reportedly
clashed over al
Marqishi’s successor
in Abyan.
3) 03 FEB: AQAP
seized Habban,
Shabwah.
4) 04 FEB: AQAP
seized al Mahfad,
Abyan.
5) 05 FEB: An al
Houthi commander
executed three
soldiers for
attempted desertion,
in Nihm, Sana’a.
4
2
3
1
5

6. ASSESSMENT:
Political:
The former Prime Minister of Somalia, Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmad, announced the formation of a new political party called the
National Forum Party (NFP). If the administration allows the NFP is allowed to run for government positions, the new party may
politicize the conflict with al Shabaab and the presence of AMISOM forces in the country, possibly undermining ongoing security
operations.
Outlook: The NFP will likely remain insignificant unless the current administration allows passage of a party governance law.
Security:
A suicide bomber blew a hole in the side of a Daallo Airlines flight shortly after its takeoff in Mogadishu, forcing an emergency
landing. Al Shabaab is most likely responsible. If confirmed, this attack is the group’s first on an airplane and marks a step-
change in its capabilities and tactics, as well as the existence of support network among the Aden Adde International Airport
staff. Meanwhile, the frequency of attacks on security and aid officials in Mogadishu increased, likely signaling efforts to
destabilize the capital city.
Outlook: Al Shabaab may attempt another, more damaging attack on a civilian aircraft.
Al Shabaab:
Al Shabaab is disrupting African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) operations in southern Somalia. The group is capitalizing
on AMISOM redeployments following the January 15 base attack. Al Shabaab temporarily captured the port city of Marka in the
Lower Shabelle region after defending AMISOM forces withdrew. Militants raised flags over government buildings, lectured
residents, and posted pictures of the event online before retreating. Al Shabaab controlled Marka from 2008 to 2012, and
contesting Marka threatens AMISOM supply lines on the southern Somali coast.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will leverage the recapture of Marka for propaganda and recruitment.
6
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

7. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
7
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
4
3 1
2
1) 02 FEB: Suspected
al Shabaab suicide
bombing on airplane
near Mogadishu,
Banadir region.
2) 05 FEB-08 FEB: Al
Shabaab temporarily
occupied Marka,
Lower Shabelle
region.
3) 07 FEB: Car bomb
targeted Gedo
deputy governor
official in Bardhere,
Gedo region.
4) 04 FEB: AMISOM
and Jubbaland State
forces prepared for
Operation Jubba
River near Kismayo,
Lower Jubba region.

8. ASSESSMENT:
Political
The UN-backed Presidency Council missed an unofficial deadline for presenting a new cabinet to the House of Representatives
(HoR), likely due to disagreements on the inclusion of HoR-linked Libyan National Army (LNA) General Khalifa Haftar in the
unity government. Several Misratan militias endorsed the unity government, but their endorsement likely signals divisions in the
General National Congress (GNC)-Misrata bloc, not the GNC’s acceptance of the unity government.
Outlook: General Haftar’s role remains a critical point for both the HoR’s and GNC’s participation in the unity government.
Security
The Libyan National Army’s (LNA) operational focus remains on eastern Libya, especially Benghazi, Ajdabiya, and Derna,
where it is targeting both ISIS- and al Qaeda-linked militants. The LNA conducted airstrikes on Derna, claiming to target ISIS.
The LNA also claimed strikes on ISIS vehicles in Ben Jawad, which ISIS recently captured and lies outside of the LNA’s usual
zone of operations. The LNA and other Libyan armed groups may use operations against ISIS to garner international support.
Outlook: The LNA will continue to focus its ground forces and limited air power on the eastern Libyan coast.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
The U.S. and its allies are considering action in Libya, and a U.S. special operations team is reportedly conducting
reconnaissance missions from Sicily. Reconnaissance aircraft have flown over ISIS-held territory at least three times this week.
A Libya Dawn militia commander said that the coalition’s forces number around 1,400, while the Pentagon estimates 5,000 to
6,500 ISIS militants in Libya. ISIS continues to consolidate control and prepare for airstrikes in Sirte. AQIM-linked Ansar al
Sharia remains active in eastern Libya, where it claimed to shoot down an LNA MiG-23 warplane over Derna.
Outlook: ISIS will continue to prepare for airstrikes, which are unlikely to roll back its territorial gains without a cohesive Libyan
force on the ground.
8
LIBYAWEST AFRICA

9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
9
LIBYAWEST AFRICA
2
4
3
1
5
1) 02-07 FEB: LNA
forces clashed with
Islamist militants in
Benghazi.
2) 08 FEB: The LNA
bombed Islamist
positions in Derna,
and Ansar al Sharia
claimed to down a
LNA warplane.
3) 07 FEB: Unclaimed
airstrikes killed four
civilians in Derna.
4) 03-07 FEB: LNA
forces and affiliated
brigades clashed with
Sudanese Liberation
Movement militants
north of al Kufra.
5) 04 FEB: ISIS set up
checkpoints south of
Sirte.

10. ASSESSMENT:
AQIM
AQIM militants detonated an SVBIED and launched a ground attack at a UN base at the Palmeraie Hotel in Timbuktu, Mali.
AQIM’s Sahara Emirate claimed credit for the attack and linked it to previous hotel attacks in Burkina Faso and Bamako,
reinforcing the intent to continue targeting those supporting the Malian peace deal. Militant activity may be rising in Algeria, a
primary leader in the Malian peace deal process. Security forces destroyed 18 terrorist bunkers in northern Algeria and
detained suspected terrorists in Borj Badji Mokhtar, along a popular trafficking route from Mali. Forces likewise detained
travelers suspected of joining ISIS in Libya, signaling the threat posed by Algeria’s destabilized neighbor.
Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will continue to target sites frequented by westerners and peacekeepers in the Sahel.
Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)
Uqba Ibn Nafa’a is remaining quiet as Tunisian forces conduct frequent counterterrorism operations. Security forces arrested 17
suspected terrorists from a group called Ahl al Haq in Monastir, eastern Tunisia. This is the first mention of Ahl al Haq, and its
reported allegiance to ISIS may signal a rift in Tunisian terrorist group activity.
Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafaa’s silence may harm its recruitment capabilities, and Salafi-jihadi cells and militants may turn
increasingly to ISIS should Uqba Ibn Nafa’a not resume media or kinetic operations soon.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
Al Murabitoun, an AQIM-linked group, claimed credit for the kidnapping of an elderly Australian couple last month in northern
Burkina Faso. The group released the woman quickly while holding her husband, citing historical guidance from al Qaeda
leadership to not involve civilian women in war and reinforcing the group’s ties to the al Qaeda network. Suspected AQIM-
linked militants executed the son of a village chief in central Mali. The chief was supposedly a former ally of AQIM.
Outlook: Al Murabitoun and other AQIM affiliates will continue attacks to disrupt the Malian peace deal and expand their zones
of operation.
10
MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

11. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
11
MAGHREBWEST AFRICA
2
3
1
4
1) 02 FEB: Tunisian
security forces killed
three suspected
terrorists and
arrested one in
Matmata, southern
Gabes province.
2) 03 FEB: A terrorist
surrendered to the
Algerian army in Borj
Badji Mokhtar,
southern Algeria.
3) 03-06 FEB:
Algerian forces
destroyed 14
terrorist bunkers in
Bouira province.
4) 05 FEB: Tunisian
forces arrested 17
suspected terrorists
linked to Ahl al Haq in
Monastir.

12. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST AFRICA
12
2
3
1
1) 02 FEB: The Malian
army arrested two
men carrying
explosives near Gao,
northeastern Mali.
2) 05 FEB: Militants
from AQIM’s Sahara
Emirate launched a
complex attack on a
UN police base in
Timbuktu, northern
Mali.
3) 07 FEB: Suspected
AQIM militants
executed the son of a
village chief in Boni,
central Mali.

13. ACRONYMS
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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Possible military dimensions (PMD)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
Katherine Zimmerman
senior al Qaeda analyst
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Paul Bucala
Iran analyst
paul.bucala@aei.org
(202) 888-6573
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Caitlin Pendleton
Iran analyst
caitlin.pendleton@aei.org
(202) 888-6577
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569
14