The summary of the threat update document is: 1. Iran and Russia are expanding military coordination, including potential use of an Iranian air base by Russian bombers. 2. The incapacitation of an LNA commander in Libya creates a power vacuum that could lead to conflict and allow terrorist groups like ISIS and al Qaeda to rebuild. 3. The Gulf crisis caused the ending of a military cooperation agreement between Somalia and the UAE, weakening counterterrorism efforts against al Shabaab and al Qaeda in the region.

1. 1
Threat Update: April 17, 2018
Iran and Russia are expanding military coordination, including potential
Russian use of an Iranian air base in western Iran. Russian officials
reportedly requested that Iran reallow Russian long-range bombers to use
the air base during a meeting in Tehran following the April 8 Israeli
airstrike against pro-Syrian regime forces. Russia previously conducted
operations in Syria from the air base in August 2016.
Iran
The incapacitation of Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa
Haftar creates a power vacuum that will likely lead to conflict in eastern
Libya. Signs of the LNA’s fracturing have already appeared despite LNA
leaders’ efforts to rally support behind a military campaign. ISIS and al
Qaeda will likely exploit the LNA’s weakness to rebuild their networks in
northeastern Libya, undermining U.S.-backed efforts to prevent their return.
The Gulf crisis caused a diplomatic rupture between the Somali
Federal Government (SFG) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The
UAE and SFG ended a military cooperation agreement on April 11 following
months of political tensions that began when the SFG refused to sever ties
with Qatar in 2017. The UAE has pursued direct relationships with Somali
states that have weakened the SFG, the primary U.S. counterterrorism
partner in Somalia.
Somalia
Libya

2. 2
Threat Update: April 17, 2018
Yemen
The Saudi-led coalition is likely preparing for an offensive against al
Houthi forces on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Forces led by late former
President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s nephew Tariq Saleh are staging in al
Mokha city. The coalition aims to seize al Hudaydah port in order to
isolate al Houthi forces from Iran and force the al Houthi movement to
agree to an unfavorable political settlement. An offensive on al Hudaydah
may undermine ongoing UN-led efforts to restart negotiations.
Al Qaeda is attempting to recruit from the displaced Rohingya
population in Myanmar. Indian security forces arrested an ethnic
Rohingyan al Qaeda militant in July 2017 who was recruiting militants to
conduct attacks in Myanmar, according to India’s central counterterrorism
agency. The al Qaeda recruiter first traveled to South Asia to establish a
cell in 2014 after fighting with al Qaeda in Syria.
al Qaeda
Network

3. Libya
3Prepared by Wiam Aimade
LNA commander’s incapacitation leads to
political unrest in Libya
11 APR: Haftar’s two sons
escaped the LNA’s
headquarters at al Rajma.
They feared an attack from
the Awaqir tribe, which
opposes LNA leadership.
12 APR: Leaders of the
Obeidat and Barasa tribes
in eastern Libya may have
encouraged their members
to withdraw from the LNA’s
offensive to seize Derna.
12-13 APR: Egyptian and Emirati officials reportedly
discussed successors to Haftar that included Brigadier
General Abdel Salem al Hassi, Gen. Aoun al Ferjani, and
LNA Chief of Staff Abdel Razzaq al Nadhuri.
3
from Derna
ath of Haftar
2
1
Present

4. Horn of
Africa
4Peter Cialone
Gulf crisis worsens Somali-Emirati relations
11 APR 2018: The SFG ended a
military agreement with the UAE after
accusing the UAE of attempting to
undermine President Farmajo.
07 JUN 2017: The SFG preserved its
relationship with Qatar despite Saudi
and Emirati pressure. The breakaway
region of Somaliland sided with Saudi
Arabia and the UAE.
12 MAR 2018: Somali parliament voted to ban an
Emirati port operator in opposition to an agreement
between the UAE and the Somaliland breakaway
region. The ban led to a power struggle between
the SFG’s executive and legislative branches over
control of foreign investment.
2
1
16 MAR-09 APR 2018: The Lower
House speaker resigned after an armed
standoff with forces loyal to Somali
President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo.
43
See The New Scramble for Africa for additional analysis

5. Al Qaeda
Network
5Maher Farrukh and Matt Cassidy
Al Qaeda attempts to recruit from Rohingya
population in South Asia
SEP 2013: Ethnic Rohingyan
Samium Rahman left the UK to
join al Qaeda in Syria.
1
FEB 2014: Al Qaeda
selected Rahman to recruit for
al Qaeda in the Indian
Subcontinent in Myanmar.
2
29 SEP 2014: Bangladeshi
police detained Rahman on
terrorism charges and released
him on bail in APR 2017.
3
19 SEP 2017: Indian security
forces arrested Rahman in New
Delhi, India, disrupting his plan
to travel to Myanmar.
5
02-12 SEP 2017: Al Qaeda and
ISIS called on supporters to
attack Myanmarese officials in
retaliation for the Rohingya crisis.
4
present

6. Yemen
6
Key
Meeting
Travel
12 APR: Three thousand
troops loyal to Tariq Saleh
arrived in al Mokha city,
Taiz governorate.
Tomás Padgett Perez
Late former president’s nephew joins the
Saudi-led coalition
09 APR: Tariq Saleh’s forces
prepared to travel from a training
camp west of Aden city to join
the Saudi-led coalition offensive
against al Houthi forces in al
Hudaydah governorate.
06 MAR: Emirati officials facilitated a
meeting between Tariq Saleh and
Yemeni Salafi commanders in the UAE
to discuss Saleh taking command of
anti-al Houthi forces in al Hudaydah.
1
2
3
present
Frontlines
City
Aden
Al Hudaydah Port
Al Mokha City
Sana’a

7. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
7

8. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
8
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly