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Enhancing Exports and Trade
Amitendu Palit, ISAS, NUS
Andhra Pradesh Priorities Conference, Vijayawada June 18-20
Intervention 1
An export-oriented apparel park in a CEZ
Definition and Justification
CEZs are coming up as part of the Govt. of India’s ‘Sagarmala’ initiative.
This maritime development programme plans creating capacities in India’s
coastal states that include developing ports, improving back-end port
connectivity and growth of industrial clusters.
Despite being one of the earliest entrants to the SEZ strategy, India’s SEZs
have not performed well compared with those in China, Southeast Asia or
Bangladesh. While Asian and global experience points to significant
benefits from SEZs and export-oriented hubs, India’s SEZs largely failed
due to lack of linkages.
 Sagarmala’s vision of developing CEZs that would provide effective
hinterland connectivity to coastal economic hubs increases optimism about
performance of export-oriented industrial clusters, such as an apparel park.
Description
Consistent with long-term growth strategy of state of AP.
AP is developing two CEZs – VCIC Central and VCIC North.
The intervention is visualized in VCIC North: this CEZ is linked to the
Vizag port and would have apparels as one of its core industries.
To be developed in sync with efforts for creating CEZs as well as the
APIIC’s efforts to build export-oriented hubs
Industrial cluster of 2,000 acres: the size factor is important for
triggering agglomeration benefits.
Expected to be developed privately in collaboration with state
agencies.
Projected Costs: 20 Year Span
Fixed Costs: Land, Development; &
Operating costs (INR crore) Years 1-6: Fixed Costs; 7-20: Operating Costs;
Projected Benefits: 20 Year Span
 3 scenarios : 1) Lower than baseline
(conservative) – Performance of India’s
current SEZs 2) Baseline – benefits projected
by Sagarmala 3) Higher than baseline (robust)
– performance of SEZs in China and elsewhere
 Conservative: Exports and economic activity
50% and 20% of baseline;
 Robust: Exports same as baseline: Economic
activity same, but annual increase of 5% (2%
in other two)
 Key differences between scenario benefits:
Economic Activity/agglomeration/spillover
Intervention 2
Modernising Port Facilities and Improving Hinterland Connectivity
Definition and Justification
Building new ports/ modernizing existing ports and improving their
connectivity with hinterland is an important aspect of Sagarmala
Competitiveness of exports is a function of port efficiency and
transport costs that include costs of transporting to ports.
Academic literature variously points to the importance of such
initiatives in reducing logistic costs. Indian ports have suffered from
higher logistic costs that have affected their operational performances.
Upgrading port facilities and reducing logistics costs is essential for a
state like AP that has a vision statement of developing into a ‘global
maritime hub’ and also be a core part of Sagarmala vision plan.
Description
We visualize port modernization facilities to include dredging, building a new
container terminal and expanding berth size. This is line with similar
modernization effected in Visakhapatnam port.
The port connectivity is planned on the lines of similar linkage programmes taken
up by JNPT port in Maharashtra : expanding road network by increasing highway
lanes.
Intervention visualizes acquisition of 1000 acres of land for ‘expansion’. Risks
include the delays in acquisition of land, resultant time and cost overruns.
Benefits have been confined to revenues generated. Social benefits have not been
estimated as these are difficult to quantify.
Projected Costs: 20 Year Span
Fixed Costs: Land, Modernisation,
Connectivity; & Operating costs (INR crore)
Years 1-7: Fixed Costs; 8-20: Operating
Costs;
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Land Modernisation Connectivity Operating expenses
Projected Benefits – 20 Year Span
Initial revenue – INR 150 crore, based on
traffic generated by 75% of capacity
utilization. Benchmarked to Gangavaram
port revenue performance.
Revenues can increase from flexibility of
non-major ports in increasing tariffs.
But might decrease if capacity utilization
falters
Intervention 3
Scientific testing and certification facilities for marine product exports
Definition and Justification
AP visualizes growing into an ‘aqua hub’ on the basis of its large seafood exports,
particularly Vannamei shrimps. AP is largest producer of these shrimps. Seafood is also the
largest exports from Andhra.
Empirical evidence on quality standards and trade point to adoption of such standards
increasing host country exports
Empirical research points to lack of adequate certification facilities as a constraint for
seafood exports as lack of certification invites NTMs in global markets. But seafood value
chain in India has begun changing in response to demands of conformity assessment.
We expect additional modern testing and certification facilities to encourage substitution
from domestic production to exports. The substitution effect is expected to be strong due to
the high international price premium commanded by shrimp exports.
Description
Facility to be located close to Vizag port, which handles largest volume
of outbound seafood exports in the country. It will also cater to seafood
exports bound for Krishnapatnam port.
In line with the earlier policy interventions, the current one dovetails
into the policy vision of Sagarmala and CEZ outputs.
To be developed in line with the norms laid out by Food Safety and
Standards Association of India (FSSAI)
Delays might arise from accreditation received from Export Inspection
Council and other agencies.
Projected Costs: 10 Year Span
Fixed Costs: Land & Building, Lab &
Equipment; & Operating costs (INR crore)
Years 1-3: Fixed Costs; 4-10: Operating
Costs;
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Land and building Laboratory and equipment Operating expense
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Projected Benefits – 20 Year Span
Initial revenue – INR 65 crore,
expected to rise by 2% each year
Estimates based on expected
substitution of seafood produce
to exports from domestic
consumption and 25% of higher
premium
Might be higher if international
price premiums increase
BCR Summary (5% Discount Rate)
Interventions Cost (INR
crore)
Benefit (INR
crore)
BCR Quality of
Evidence
Intervention 1;
Scenario 1
19,235 46,461 2.4 Medium
Intervention 1;
Scenario 2
19,235 237,726 12.4 Medium
Intervention 1;
Scenario 3
19,235 282,338 14.7 Medium
Intervention 2 1,985 1,695 0.9 Strong
Intervention 3 44 346 7.9 Strong

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Andhra Pradesh Priorities: Trade - Palit

  • 1. Enhancing Exports and Trade Amitendu Palit, ISAS, NUS Andhra Pradesh Priorities Conference, Vijayawada June 18-20
  • 2. Intervention 1 An export-oriented apparel park in a CEZ
  • 3. Definition and Justification CEZs are coming up as part of the Govt. of India’s ‘Sagarmala’ initiative. This maritime development programme plans creating capacities in India’s coastal states that include developing ports, improving back-end port connectivity and growth of industrial clusters. Despite being one of the earliest entrants to the SEZ strategy, India’s SEZs have not performed well compared with those in China, Southeast Asia or Bangladesh. While Asian and global experience points to significant benefits from SEZs and export-oriented hubs, India’s SEZs largely failed due to lack of linkages.  Sagarmala’s vision of developing CEZs that would provide effective hinterland connectivity to coastal economic hubs increases optimism about performance of export-oriented industrial clusters, such as an apparel park.
  • 4. Description Consistent with long-term growth strategy of state of AP. AP is developing two CEZs – VCIC Central and VCIC North. The intervention is visualized in VCIC North: this CEZ is linked to the Vizag port and would have apparels as one of its core industries. To be developed in sync with efforts for creating CEZs as well as the APIIC’s efforts to build export-oriented hubs Industrial cluster of 2,000 acres: the size factor is important for triggering agglomeration benefits. Expected to be developed privately in collaboration with state agencies.
  • 5. Projected Costs: 20 Year Span Fixed Costs: Land, Development; & Operating costs (INR crore) Years 1-6: Fixed Costs; 7-20: Operating Costs;
  • 6. Projected Benefits: 20 Year Span  3 scenarios : 1) Lower than baseline (conservative) – Performance of India’s current SEZs 2) Baseline – benefits projected by Sagarmala 3) Higher than baseline (robust) – performance of SEZs in China and elsewhere  Conservative: Exports and economic activity 50% and 20% of baseline;  Robust: Exports same as baseline: Economic activity same, but annual increase of 5% (2% in other two)  Key differences between scenario benefits: Economic Activity/agglomeration/spillover
  • 7. Intervention 2 Modernising Port Facilities and Improving Hinterland Connectivity
  • 8. Definition and Justification Building new ports/ modernizing existing ports and improving their connectivity with hinterland is an important aspect of Sagarmala Competitiveness of exports is a function of port efficiency and transport costs that include costs of transporting to ports. Academic literature variously points to the importance of such initiatives in reducing logistic costs. Indian ports have suffered from higher logistic costs that have affected their operational performances. Upgrading port facilities and reducing logistics costs is essential for a state like AP that has a vision statement of developing into a ‘global maritime hub’ and also be a core part of Sagarmala vision plan.
  • 9. Description We visualize port modernization facilities to include dredging, building a new container terminal and expanding berth size. This is line with similar modernization effected in Visakhapatnam port. The port connectivity is planned on the lines of similar linkage programmes taken up by JNPT port in Maharashtra : expanding road network by increasing highway lanes. Intervention visualizes acquisition of 1000 acres of land for ‘expansion’. Risks include the delays in acquisition of land, resultant time and cost overruns. Benefits have been confined to revenues generated. Social benefits have not been estimated as these are difficult to quantify.
  • 10. Projected Costs: 20 Year Span Fixed Costs: Land, Modernisation, Connectivity; & Operating costs (INR crore) Years 1-7: Fixed Costs; 8-20: Operating Costs; 0 50 100 150 200 250 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Land Modernisation Connectivity Operating expenses
  • 11. Projected Benefits – 20 Year Span Initial revenue – INR 150 crore, based on traffic generated by 75% of capacity utilization. Benchmarked to Gangavaram port revenue performance. Revenues can increase from flexibility of non-major ports in increasing tariffs. But might decrease if capacity utilization falters
  • 12. Intervention 3 Scientific testing and certification facilities for marine product exports
  • 13. Definition and Justification AP visualizes growing into an ‘aqua hub’ on the basis of its large seafood exports, particularly Vannamei shrimps. AP is largest producer of these shrimps. Seafood is also the largest exports from Andhra. Empirical evidence on quality standards and trade point to adoption of such standards increasing host country exports Empirical research points to lack of adequate certification facilities as a constraint for seafood exports as lack of certification invites NTMs in global markets. But seafood value chain in India has begun changing in response to demands of conformity assessment. We expect additional modern testing and certification facilities to encourage substitution from domestic production to exports. The substitution effect is expected to be strong due to the high international price premium commanded by shrimp exports.
  • 14. Description Facility to be located close to Vizag port, which handles largest volume of outbound seafood exports in the country. It will also cater to seafood exports bound for Krishnapatnam port. In line with the earlier policy interventions, the current one dovetails into the policy vision of Sagarmala and CEZ outputs. To be developed in line with the norms laid out by Food Safety and Standards Association of India (FSSAI) Delays might arise from accreditation received from Export Inspection Council and other agencies.
  • 15. Projected Costs: 10 Year Span Fixed Costs: Land & Building, Lab & Equipment; & Operating costs (INR crore) Years 1-3: Fixed Costs; 4-10: Operating Costs; 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Land and building Laboratory and equipment Operating expense 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 16. Projected Benefits – 20 Year Span Initial revenue – INR 65 crore, expected to rise by 2% each year Estimates based on expected substitution of seafood produce to exports from domestic consumption and 25% of higher premium Might be higher if international price premiums increase
  • 17. BCR Summary (5% Discount Rate) Interventions Cost (INR crore) Benefit (INR crore) BCR Quality of Evidence Intervention 1; Scenario 1 19,235 46,461 2.4 Medium Intervention 1; Scenario 2 19,235 237,726 12.4 Medium Intervention 1; Scenario 3 19,235 282,338 14.7 Medium Intervention 2 1,985 1,695 0.9 Strong Intervention 3 44 346 7.9 Strong