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New Energy Realities, Transition and Innovation
Halfway 2030
Executive Programme, Paris
15th May 2024
Adriaan Kamp- Founder of Energy For One World
Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World (2012- Present)
A consulting practice on Global Change, Energy
Architecture, UN SDG’s and Leadership.
Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership
Education
20 years Industry and Shell International Upstream ( 5
Countries and EPHQ).
Contents of Masterclass
Module 1 New Energy Realities
5 Key Drivers of Change & New Energy Possibilities
Module 2 Organising for Success: Making the Change(s) to Scale
Module 3 Leadership over Change (/Innovation)
2024
War(s): Ukraine, Israel/ Gaza
Energy Security and Affordability
“ De-Risking” and “ Diversification”
viz-a-viz Calls for a New World Order
5 Key Drivers of Change, New Energy Possibilities
5 Present Key Drivers of Change
• Global Human Development & Economic Growth
• Strength of our Underground
• Nature and our Planetary Boundaries
• Climate Change and Climate Realities
• Our Geo-Politics of Emotions
1+2+3+4 (+5)= “ Holistic Eco-system”
New Technology & Possibilities
• “ The Great Electrification” , AI, etc.
6
2021
2030-2050
7.9 Billion
People
10 Billion
People
100 trillion
USD
economy
180-210
trillion USD
225 million
oil eq/day
(15 TW)
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
(55 TW)
414 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget
consumed for 1.5 degrees/ 21st
century
??? ppm CO2 and
Climate Change Effects
Question for the 21st century: Will it all fit?
7
Club of Rome (2nd March 1972): Limits to Growth
Club of Rome (2nd March 1972-2nd March 2022):
50 years Limits to Growth
1972 Limits To Growth.First UN Environmental Conference in Stockholm, Sweden.
Establishment of UNEP in Kenya.
1972 Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon visit China
1975 End of Vietnam War
1979 Margaret Thatcher PM of UK
1981: Reagan becomes president of the USA. Start of NeoLiberal World Order.
1986: Microsoft IPO
1987 Gro Brundtland Report: “ Our Common Future” Gordon Gekko “ Greed is Good” in
Wall Street Blockbuster Movie
1989 Fall Berlin Wall
1992 Rio Conference
1995 First COP meeting in Bonn
1996 Start of Mobile Internet
2000 China joins WTO- and global free-trade got its other boost
2000 Millenium Development Goals
2001 9/11 - Fall of Twin Tower
2012 Rio + 20
2015 COP21, UNSDGs adopted at UN. Laudato Si!
2016 Trump President- Exit Paris, Brexit
2021 - 2022 Corona, COP26, 27, 28
2024- Wars in Ukraine/ Israel. Calls for a New World Order/ Multi-Polar
Clickable
Presentation
Science Community : 10 Years
Sir David Attenborough: A Life on our Planet, Planet Earth III
19
COP28 (1)
Sultan Al Jaber : Bringing the World together for COP28:
1.5 Degrees alive
COP28 (2)
1st Global Stocktake (Ambition Level)
Input Regional Climate Summits (“ Global
South” )
Climate Finance- Marrakech, COP28
Presidency
“ Activation” of the Paris Agreement
Inclusion of Fossil Fuel Industry (e.g.
methane emissions pledge, “ unabated” oil
and gas, subsidies, tax)
Loss and Damage
Finance, Finance, Finance
2023: “ Climate Realities”
2023: “ Climate Realities”
2024 Climate Realities
Climate Litigation vs the Corporate and the Prize Agenda?
Key Take-Aways from this Global Summit
0) Key panelists believed that we have said farewell to the liberal world
order, known to us - over the past 30 years.
(1) Almost all of the audience and panelists no longer believed that the
1.5 Degrees Paris Agreement was attainable, and that the 2030
emissions reduction targets (re. Net Zero) will be achieved. There is a
long long overshoot and delays. Politicians should start to share these
realities.
(2) The US IRA is attracting Europe renewable businesses and
investments away from Europe. However, and due to the sentiments
on Energy Security in the US and elsewhere; GE sees that Nuclear
and Gas are now " top performers in energy order portfolios" - and that
" Wind, Grids and Renewables" are building-up backlogs (jammed FID
queues)
(3) The present Geo-Politics prevents us from having the good, more
open and better conversations across the boards: Energy Security
and New Trade Protectionism is hampering trust, the energy transition
or sustainability efforts. The present sensitivities, strive and
vulnerabilities- also over the new energy system- on and with China,
self evident.
(4) No matter how many Spring Meetings there will be, with new
promises or finance flows from the North to the South- by Politicians
and Bankers , without the relevant attendance of the Private Sector
and Society- nothing will move. There is an urgent need for (new
styled) "Convening Power" - and where all relevant stakeholders
(legal, finance, economy, ecology, gov/ business, business and
program development of BigOil and Electrification" -are getting to one
table-and to frame and realize the New. This is true: nationally,
regionally and in our global trade relations. And it is about PPP.
(5) There was also time for, as some will say, the more " woke
agenda" : energy poverty and energy justice. A lady from the Biden
Administration knew how to mention that 50% of Black America has
problems with paying their energy bills, and that it is also a known
fact that the poorer families of America live next door to heavy and
polluting refineries and industries: shortening their lives. "Energy
Transition" without eyes for these injustices- is missing the point: it is
to be all inclusive.
(6) Mr. Podesta, the " new" special climate envoy of the Biden
Administration (replacing John Kerry)- well first of all, and for all to
see, is a different man and character then the charismatic John Kerry,
and secondly- and not unimportantly- brought-in a new Big Elephant
in the Room (and in the US international trade relations): Rightly he
started to mention that the global trade market has gone perhaps too
intense with shipping products (oil, containers, manufactured goods)
over the seas and in the skies: intense carbon emissions. However, in
his lecture (" he read his message from paper" )- there was a clear
undertone that some, if not most of the new trading rules in his
mind,were there to protect American manufacturing, advance its
position and disadvantage or punish China and/or (more polluting)
developing nations: perhaps not such an elegant, wise or fair position
to take!
45
UN SDGs- Global Responsibilities
46
UNSDGS- Accelerating the Critical Transitions Required
47
Sachs on the “ Economy of Francesco”
197 countries need to change
War in Ukraine : The Great De-coupling
Extension of Coal Licenses, Imports of new LNG, Energy Saving
Measures, Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports,
Rationing of Gas Consumption, Doubling of Renewables Capacities,
Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers, Oil Reserves, Scouting for
New Safe Resource Basins, including New Fracking, Accelerating
Transitions,
War in Ukraine
Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (1)
Closing the Ranks: If…then…Me, We, They,
Them and The Others…
….Are we truly “ in control” ?
Extension of Coal Licenses,
Imports of new LNG to Europe from US, Qatar, Africa
Energy Saving Measures,
Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports,
(Western Companies sanctionting or exiting Russian Assets
and Market)
Rationing of Gas Consumption,
Doubling of Renewables Capacities,
Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers,
Access to Oil Reserves,
Scouting for New Safe Resource Basins, including New
Fracking,
Accelerating Transitions, etc. etc.
War in Ukraine
Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (2)
"In uncertain times, one of bp's primary roles
is to maintain the safe, secure supply of the
energy on which societies depend. The
importance of that role has rarely been
clearer than in recent weeks."
Helge Lund, chair
59
The Saudi Prince of Oil
Prices Vows to Drill
‘Every Last Molecule’
"The debate around climate targets
was “very emotional” he said. “The
focus of everyone should be about
reducing emissions. But you cannot
invest for the industry now, it is total
chaos I have to say. Total chaos,
the whole debate and the whole
discussion.”
Contents of Masterclass
Module 1 New Energy Realities
5 Key Drivers of Change & New Energy Possibilities
Module 2 Organising for Success: Making the Change(s) to Scale
Module 3 Leadership over Change (/Innovation)
Elon Musk: A Future Worth getting Excited about
Elon Musk/ Tesla- MasterPlan 3
China Dream: Envision
IRENA capacities, investment and jobs
“COP26: On the back of an envelope”- 130 trillion USD
130 trillion over 30 years, is about
4 trillion per year.
Will that work?
Let me give you some hints:
First of all,
Today, our world energy system has a working capacity of about
15-20 TW, and that equals 15- 20 Trillion USD in assets.
Presently, every year, the world needs approximately 300-400 Bn
USD/annum to counter depletion, allow for growth and maintain or
keep the oil and gas flowing.
Over coming decades our world energy system is expected to double:
to at least 40-50 TW is thus 40-50 Trillion USD in assets.
So spending 4 trillion USD per annum (on energy system), in a
present world economy of 100 trillion USD) looks like (more than)
enough to see the job gets done (ie invest in existing and new
infrastructures transition)
Now and But, :
We, OECD, have today nor the capacity, nor the
capabilities(manufacturing, value chains) nor the skills
(program management, engineers, construction people), nor
the socio-economic and political system to make these
transition spending programs at home, or abroad.
And: We need “to drive” our present incumbent energy
corporations to change this, scale-up and step-up.
And as a Swedish Foreign Investment Manager noted: It is
not about the money or on paper. This is about the real
physical world: we find it difficult to create bankable projects
in a messy world, abroad. Collectively, we are invited to
become much better in project framing and de-risking- and
realize beyond our imagination.
The US-China co-operation and Boris Johnson New Grid Initiative (with India) - can be the
Kick-starter to see this going- and free-up this dream of making Energy Free of Concerns.
From 80-20 till (60-40) till 20-80 before 2050: 4 Trillion USD/annum .
What “Power” comes out of your “Socket” ?
As Black as Black
can be
(Coal, Dirt, Unfair),
And
Unreliable
Affordable, Nor
Sustainable
Grey
Gas Powered
Imported LNG Gas, with
ETS Offsets/ Nature
Based Solutions.
Available, Costly
(but not 100%
Sustainable)
Local Utility Scaled
Renewables Plus Gas/
CCUS
Plus
ETS/ Nature Based
Solutions
With market rivalries, profit
seeking and competitions
Available?, Affordable?
(and not 100% sustainable)
Regional Utility
Scaled Renewables
(Super Grid) Plus
Local mini-grids and
Zero-Plus Home
(and sustainable,
circular economy
value chains)
(Energy Free of
Concerns)
WEC 2022: Energy for Humanity- St Petersburg: Cancelled!
82
1 Energy is a system- behind every button, switch and fuel
pump is a myriad of connections.
2. Energy Transition is a Process, not a destination and it
cannot be delivered all in one go.
3. Diversity in energy systems is increasing in the broadest
sense- geographies, technologies, skills, and cultures
4. The Future of Energy cannot be predicted, but better
energy futures can be co-created if we avoid fear , and
open-up to new and progressive bridges and pathways
5. Energy Technology Transition always involves societal
disruption and transformation
1. Rebalancing act between our Engineered World with
that of Nature.
2. Rebalancing act between ourselves- Rich- Poor,
North-South, East-West, Have and Have nots.
3. It is about the Climate AND it is about the UN SDGs
4. It is about making new Energy-Economies
Architectures: Sustainable, Inclusive and Free of
Concerns. Here and There. Now and Tomorrow
5. It is about Responsible, Decent and Servant
Leadership
WEC 100 years lessons on Energy
Transitions
EFOW 10 years lessons with Energy
Transition
( e.g. 99 Theses to Build Back Better)
WEC : World Energy Council led by Dr Angela Wilkinson
86
A Couple of (Policy) Recommendations
(from 99 Theses to Build Back Better)
1. Re-frame our present neo-liberal free-market Economies, there where required:
From Wealth to Well-Being, and in more harmony with Nature. De-growth &
Circularities - where needed.
2. Take Energy Transition Seriously- for making Energy-Economies Free of Concerns:
Realize the 3 to 4 tn USD/annum Finance, Capacities and Capabilities Build-up for
“The Great Electrification”
3. Re-organize present Energy Market Constellation- see Quadrant-, in the West and
with the Rest: Away from Free Market, Portfolio Opportunism & Sole Ownerships
towards true new and shared R&R, Utility and Commitments towards New Energy
Architectures.( “ Utility to the People” - there where relevant).
4. Realize UNSDGs in Trade and Trade Relations. Businesses and Governments can act
here more aligned and attuned. Strengthen UN Global Compact.
5. Build New Bridges of Peace, Capabilities and Hope.
UN
Regional Blocks
Countries
Cities
Communities
Companies and Institutes
Co-alitions of the Willing
Organizing ourselves: “zippered”- in dimensions
Mainstream
• UN Re-organisation; UN 2.0 (0)
• Governments (1)
• Corporates and Global Compact (2a): Energy Transitions to Scale
• Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3)
• Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)
Sustainable Community Building
Our world is under construction:
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities
and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population
Some Regional Development Examples
(as it is today)
98
Saudi Aramco IPO: the value of good reserves
960 × 540
Wall Street Journal
109
India will continue to
rely on coal power until
it becomes developed
country: Environment
Minister
Responding to a question at a press
conference here, the minister also said
India resisted pressure from developed
countries to end the use of fossil fuels at the
UN climate conference in the United Arab
Emirates.
113
114
115
Click to Go To
Website
Germany: An example how it works- in real
E-on and VW
118
Siemens Dismantling an Icon
Since Kaeser took charge in 2013, there has been a flurry
of spin-offs, carve outs and joint ventures at the German
giant
● May 2014: Siemens slims its divisions to nine from
16; carves out health care and announces listing of
hearing aid business
● September 2014: Siemens sells stake in kitchen and
washing machine business to Bosch
● November 2014: Sells hearing-aid unit to EQT for
2.14 billion euros ($2.4 billion)
● June 2016: Announces merger of wind power
division to form Siemens Gamesa
● November 2016: Announces Siemens Healthineers
will be brought to market
● February 2019: Plan to form rail joint venture with
France’s Alstom is blocked by European authorities
● May 2019: Siemens announces plan to carve out
power and gas businesses
● 2023-2024 Siemens Gasema Wind Turbine Troubles
and Loss making. Restructuring for New Growth.
Germany Coal Commission: Phase-Out 2038 (??)
120
BERLIN (Reuters) - 26.1.2019: Germany should shut down all of its coal-fired power plants by 2038 at the latest, a
government-appointed commission said on Saturday, proposing at least 40 billion euros ($45.7 billion) in aid to regions affected by the
phase-out.
Germany: True Progress Made
New Government; New Worldview. New Realities
Germany Energiewende
Goals:
Climate neutral by 2045
Phasing-out of Coal by 2030 (Luzerath!)
Outlaw combustion engines (e-fuels)
End Gas Power
Some Realities:
Nuclear exit, Gas from Russia Ended.
New Power, Gas, Oil deals with Scandinavia, US, Qatar, Africa
Step-up Hydrogen, LNG, Wind/Solar, PowerGrids
Need to fill-up gas storage again 85% (1 oct), 95% by (1 nov)
Dramatically behind in target to achieve 80% renewable Power
by 2030, as well 65% emission reductions.
State subsidies on Energy to Industry, to combat US, China
competition.
“ Mittelstand” Energy Prices sky-high.
Rescued and Nationalised part of Utilities (Uniper, in talks with
RWE)
Energy in the Netherlands (1)
• PVV, VVD, BBB and NSC? Face of the
new PM?
• What to do after “Groningen Gas
(21/12 Bcm) & New Energy
Transition (Climate) Accord- II ?
• What to do with/after Pernis?
• Electrification of Homes, Cars,
Transport and Cities
• Greening of intensive energy
Industries-, Agri-, Petro-;
• Regional Energy Markets
• What new export markets are there
to create?
Energy in the Netherlands (2)
The challenge the Dutch are facing is a triple national budget and investment
challenge:
• 1. The decrease in (state) income due to the earlier closure of Groningen Gas.
The estimated economic value of the lost gas is between 50-125 Billion Euro.
• 2. Additional expenses to be able to import Gas (temporarily) and as
"bridging fuel" - in the transition and accelerated investments in (eg) Wind
Offshore, as an alternative to the loss of Groningen Gas.
• 3. Renovation of Dutch energy architecture: Investments in electrification,
the built environment and agri-, industry- to "get off gas / gasless" and to
meet Paris [1]
• War in Ukraine
125
Rutte IV—> New Faced Cabinet
A New Green (Energy) Plan ?- NW Europe
136
EU “New Green Deal”- (1)
137
EU “New Green Deal” (2)
139
EU Fit for 55
140
Mario Draghi- on Europe’s Agenda and Challenge
Europe EU/ US New Energy Realities
Key Take-Aways from this Global Summit
0) Key panelists believed that we have said farewell to the liberal world
order, known to us - over the past 30 years.
(1) Almost all of the audience and panelists no longer believed that the
1.5 Degrees Paris Agreement was attainable, and that the 2030
emissions reduction targets (re. Net Zero) will be achieved. There is a
long long overshoot and delays. Politicians should start to share these
realities.
(2) The US IRA is attracting Europe renewable businesses and
investments away from Europe. However, and due to the sentiments
on Energy Security in the US and elsewhere; GE sees that Nuclear
and Gas are now " top performers in energy order portfolios" - and that
" Wind, Grids and Renewables" are building-up backlogs (jammed FID
queues)
(3) The present Geo-Politics prevents us from having the good, more
open and better conversations across the boards: Energy Security
and New Trade Protectionism is hampering trust, the energy transition
or sustainability efforts. The present sensitivities, strive and
vulnerabilities- also over the new energy system- on and with China,
self evident.
(4) No matter how many Spring Meetings there will be, with new
promises or finance flows from the North to the South- by Politicians
and Bankers , without the relevant attendance of the Private Sector
and Society- nothing will move. There is an urgent need for (new
styled) "Convening Power" - and where all relevant stakeholders
(legal, finance, economy, ecology, gov/ business, business and
program development of BigOil and Electrification" -are getting to one
table-and to frame and realize the New. This is true: nationally,
regionally and in our global trade relations. And it is about PPP.
(5) There was also time for, as some will say, the more " woke
agenda" : energy poverty and energy justice. A lady from the Biden
Administration knew how to mention that 50% of Black America has
problems with paying their energy bills, and that it is also a known
fact that the poorer families of America live next door to heavy and
polluting refineries and industries: shortening their lives. "Energy
Transition" without eyes for these injustices- is missing the point: it is
to be all inclusive.
(6) Mr. Podesta, the " new" special climate envoy of the Biden
Administration (replacing John Kerry)- well first of all, and for all to
see, is a different man and character then the charismatic John Kerry,
and secondly- and not unimportantly- brought-in a new Big Elephant
in the Room (and in the US international trade relations): Rightly he
started to mention that the global trade market has gone perhaps too
intense with shipping products (oil, containers, manufactured goods)
over the seas and in the skies: intense carbon emissions. However, in
his lecture (" he read his message from paper" )- there was a clear
undertone that some, if not most of the new trading rules in his
mind,were there to protect American manufacturing, advance its
position and disadvantage or punish China and/or (more polluting)
developing nations: perhaps not such an elegant, wise or fair position
to take!
US Congress Hearing on Biden Costs for Carbon Neutrality
Some Examples- from our Energy Sector
(“as it was yesterday”)
Focus Areas (Energy Sector)
(Year 2019 and beyond- example only)
Oil& Petrochemicals – Plastics in the
Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon
in the Atmosphere
Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and
Mobility- Energy Architectures
Energy Architecture Developments,
Economies and UN SDGs
GeoPolitics, Free trade and “Energy
to All” or
“Energy-Economies Free of
Concerns”
Change &
Transformation
Old and New Clickable
Presentations
Vs 350 Bn USD investment
From 80-20 till (60-40) till 20-80 before 2050: 4 Trillion USD/annum .
Statoil: Equinor
168
Example Shell (1)
169
On the Power (electricity) system and market
170
Shells van Beurden: “Re-organizing to Fit”
171
Shells van Beurden: “Outrage vs. Optimism”
172
“Society” Judging and Questing the Honesty and
Responsible Leadership of BigOil Boardrooms and Execs.
Shell M&A “ Portfolio Strategy” vs Transition Obligations
BigOil (former) CEOs- now also Blackstone and KKR advisors,
steering Energy Transition Investments
179
The Saudi Prince of Oil
Prices Vows to Drill
‘Every Last Molecule’
Halfway 2030: New (institutionalised) possibilities thinking
,with Lessons Learned post-covid, Ukraine, New World Order
1. How do we look at our earlier options and choices, now?
2. What is going well? What can we celebrate ?
3. What is “under pressure or may turn out- an illusion”?
4. What may need to change- in our approach and tone of voice- knowing how Paris
Agreement and UNSDGs were constructed?
5. What key (sector, market, corporate strategic ) choices, interventions and (integrated)
decisions can we better mak?
6. What is (urgently) needed in order to succeed in what we are planning and aiming to
deliver- to our children and grand-children? What opportunities are we planning for to
deliver now and in 2030?
185
A Couple of (Policy) Recommendations
(from 99 Theses to Build Back Better)
1. Re-frame our present neo-liberal free-market Economies, there where required:
From Wealth to Well-Being, and in more harmony with Nature. De-growth &
Circularities - where needed.
2. Take Energy Transition Seriously- for making Energy-Economies Free of Concerns:
Realize the 3 to 4 tn USD/annum Finance, Capacities and Capabilities Build-up for
“The Great Electrification”
3. Re-organize present Energy Market Constellation- see Quadrant-, in the West and
with the Rest: Away from Free Market, Portfolio Opportunism & Sole Ownerships
towards true new and shared R&R, Utility and Commitments towards New Energy
Architectures.( “ Utility to the People” - there where relevant).
4. Realize UNSDGs in Trade and Trade Relations. Businesses and Governments can act
here more aligned and attuned. Strengthen UN Global Compact.
5. Build New Bridges of Peace, Capabilities and Hope.
A little conceptual..
(adding it all together)
188
From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of
energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and
civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political,
economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests
exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of,
establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and
sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there.
Now and in the future.
189
Energy Architecture
Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships:
“New Cross-Overs on Integration, Transition and
Transformation”
Renewables
Energy
Efficiency
Product
Re-designs
Energy
Architectures
Re-designs
Fossil
1 2
3
4
5
Princeton Wedges
Grow and Safe Energy
Change Energy Supply Source
Change Energy Architecture
Change Products (Cars, Homes) &
Industry Designs
Change Energy- Economy and
Direction of Lifestyles: Welfare
Change Leadership / Corporation
Paradigm
192
Levels of Change
•Level 1
•Level 2
•Level 3
•Level 4
• Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change
(CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
• Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the
Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership ,
revenue, tax and capital control structures
• Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate
business models- also in international trade
• Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
The way it works: Country Categories and Markets (1)
•OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia
•(Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec
•China Inc., India Inc.
•Developing (without Resources)
•Developing (with Resources)
•Least developed. Poor.
The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade
Mainstream
•Governments (1)
•Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2)
•New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3)
•Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
•Community, Start-up Community (5)
The way it works (3): New Forms of Collaborations
The way it may work (4): Finding the Rubik-Cube Combination
“Organizational Forms and Formats” - that works
“Horizontal and Vertical Integration”
197
e.g.
Country
Categories,
Geographies &
Markets
Business Formula-
and
Cross-Sectors
Forms of
Collaboration
● Strengthening human well-being
and capabilities;
● Shifting towards sustainable and
just economies;
● Building sustainable food systems
and healthy nutrition patterns;
● Achieving energy decarbonization
and universal access to energy;
● Promoting sustainable urban and
peri-urban development; and
● Securing the global environmental
commons.
Contents of Masterclass
Module 1 New Energy Realities
5 Key Drivers of Change & New Energy Possibilities
Module 2 Organising for Success: Making the Change(s) to Scale
Module 3 Leadership over Change (/Innovation)
A Couple of (Policy) Recommendations
(from 99 Theses to Build Back Better)
1. Re-frame our present neo-liberal free-market Economies, there where required:
From Wealth to Well-Being, and in more harmony with Nature. De-growth &
Circularities - where needed.
2. Take Energy Transition Seriously- for making Energy-Economies Free of Concerns:
Realize the 3 to 4 tn USD/annum Finance, Capacities and Capabilities Build-up for
“The Great Electrification”
3. Re-organize present Energy Market Constellation- see Quadrant-, in the West and
with the Rest: Away from Free Market, Portfolio Opportunism & Sole Ownerships
towards true new and shared R&R, Utility and Commitments towards New Energy
Architectures.( “ Utility to the People” - there where relevant).
4. Realize UNSDGs in Trade and Trade Relations. Businesses and Governments can act
here more aligned and attuned. Strengthen UN Global Compact.
5. Build New Bridges of Peace, Capabilities and Hope.
20
1
UN Global Compact- 20 years: It needs your HELP!
“Sweetspot”
20
2
197 countries need to change
BRI and Global Gateway: With Each Other or Against
205
“Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this
world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability,
affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan
Kamp, -2015
Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be
improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic
and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015
207
"The invitation we have today is to see and to blend our consciousness
and care for Deep Peace, Deep Humanity and Deep Ecology with our
more mainstream energy economics and politics- at play"
Let us direct our work and collective efforts towards attaining
“Energy Free of Concerns & Societies Free of Concerns”
Here and There. Now and Tomorrow
Adriaan Kamp
208
Building and realizing New Bridges
One World. Many Needs. Many Views
Founding partners
“In Leadership- we are all students for life”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Leadership Levels
•Managing Yourself
•Managing Others
•Managing complex change &
•Managing communities & multi-stakeholders
change
Managing yourself
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Founding partners
“Only good can come from good”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
How much do you know about (your) self?
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
What happy people know
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Bishop Currie
217
The answer to Hate, Greed, Social Injustice is
Dignity (Agape) and Peace
218
Founding partners
“Manage others as you would like to be
managed yourself”
(golden rule)
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Managing innovation & change-
Internal/ External
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Founding partners
“The art of making things Better”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
223
Sources of Innovation
• Big- Bets • 1001-Nights, Kaizen/Takumi
• From Idea to Business
(Gamechangers)
Organizing people
5/25/2018
Napoleon’s Six Winning Principles, and Leading in the Front
• EXACTITUDE
awareness, research and continuous planning
• SPEED
reducing resistance, increasing urgency, and
providing focus
• FLEXIBILITY
building teams that are adaptable, empowered and
unified
• SIMPLICITY
clear, simple objectives, messages, and processes
• CHARACTER
integrity, calmness, and responsibility
• MORAL FORCE
providing order, purpose, recognition and rewards
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Kelly Johnson’s Skunk Work Rules
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Styles Differs- too. Two trillion dollar club successes
228
Gamechangers
From 80-20 till (60-40) till 20-80 before 2050: 4 Trillion USD/annum .
232
We cannot save the Planet (Climate, Nature), if we cannot save
the People (Economy, Social Justice).
The People cannot be saved, if the Planet (Nature) is broken, at
risk or fails (e.g. pollution, resource scarcities, climate risks).
We better first solve (our problems, our conflicts, our pains), before
we can make true progress and change”
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“”Resistance to change falls when the benefits are
made clear
Resistance to change falls when the Story feels Right
(“The Star” is Chosen “Right”)
We cannot “run” ourselves into Sustainability. Slow
down and walk in more beauty.
Responsible (& Situational)
Leadership
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
“Sweetspot”
235
236
237
Servant Leadership
•Compassionate love
•Authenticity
•Humbleness
•Empowerment
•Provide direction
•Stewardship
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and
foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people
they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than
dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee
well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound
Can We Listen before Change?
Hofstede: Cultures and Organizations. The
way it works
240
The Way it Works for a System Rethink
World View
Cultures
Institutions
Our Leadership Ways
Core
Values
Cultural
Dimensions
Global People
Skills CONSCIOU
S
UNCONSCIOU
S
Founding partners
“In Leadership- we are all students for life”
Deep Peace
Deep Humanity
Deep Ecology
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Pope Francis: Dream Big
246
1. Sustainable Development- a new kind of
Globalization (2016)
2. Sustainable Humanity (2012)
3. We can no longer manage decency (2018)
4. Aga Khan University Special Lecture Series:
Can we find a shared global ethics for the 21st
century? (2020)
“Leading Global Decency”
99 Theses to Build Back Better (available on Amazon)
249
(EFOW) Summit of the Future & Agenda 2024
A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership.
Energy For One World
Adriaan Kamp (Founder)
Skype: Adriaan.Kamp
TelCall Direct line (Netherlands):
0031-614939194
E-Mail:
adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.com
www.EnergyForOneWorld.com
A Brief History of our Industry (1)
Atoms and Electrons
Colonel Drake- Titusville, 1859
Edison - Pearl Street
Station, 1882
John D. Rockefeller, 1870
Henry Ford- 1914
A Brief History of our Industry (2)
50 years ago
1974
1972
Brent Field Development
1975
UPSTREAM
OFFSHORE
PLATFORM
OIL
SANDS
Bitumen
DOWNSTREAM
Feedstock
Synthetic
crude oil
Fuels, lubricants and speciality products including
Bitumen and liquefied petroleum gas
UPGRADER
PLANT
Oil
REFINERY
Gas
LNG
LIQUEFICATION
PLANT
GAS TO
LIQUIDS
PLANT
BIOFUELS
PLANT
BIOFUELS
PLANT
WIND
TURBINES
Energy for industrial
and domestic use
LNG
REGASIFICATION
TERMINAL
POWER
STATION
ONSHORE
PRODUCTION FACILITY
Gas
Oil
CHEMICAL
PLANT
Petrochemicals used for plastics,
Coatings and detergents
Global Oil & Gas businesses
Oil & Gas: A successful energy story well over
100 years
1859
1870
1910
1910s
WW II
1919
1938
Colonel Drake find oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania
Royal Dutch/Shell Group of companies created
Exciting times for the oil industry
Expansion in Europe, Africa and the Americas
Mass production of cars: a vast new market
US Petroleum Administration of War with US Oil
companies
made a strategic advantage in fuelling the war.
Strategic importance of oil tankers.
First non-stop flight across the Atlantic,
powered by Shell fuel
Oil struck in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:
Damman-7
1833 - 1945
1907, Meanwhile in
the Netherlands
Rockefeller creates Standard Oil Company and find business model for growth
Henry Ford introduces the model T-Ford and first assembly line
Oil & Gas: A successful energy story well over
100 years
1950s &
1960s
Oil crises. Opening- up of the North Sea. Turn to natural gas, good for 15% of
Europe’s energy consumption, Shell supplying about half. Pioneering liquefied
natural gas (LNG). IEA being created in 1973/1974.
1980s
1990s
2001
2008
The golden age for the Seven Sisters. Creation of OPEC.
Advanced offshore technology, new products and services
Start selling unleaded petrol. IOC hold global leadership position
Changing faces in the oil industry: the rise and importance
of national oil companies . Creation of IEF
WWII - 2023
1970s
2009+
Industry growth, including new frontiers such
as Arctic, Deep-Sea, Unconventional Oil & Gas..
The Golden Age of Gas
9/11 and its aftermath. Rapid rise of (new) energy demand
in the East.
Oil hits 100 USD/ barrel.
5 Key Factors Determining Our New Energy
Realities 2.0
1. Direction of our Human Development: Population, Wealth, Lifestyles & Habits, Resource
Use, Energy: Intense vs. More Durable, Sustainable
2. Strength of our Underground: Oil , Gas, Earth Mineral Resources- (E)ROI and Durabilities
of Reserves (> next 100 years)
3. Planetary Boundaries and Our Relationships with Nature, 6 out of 9 Planetary
Boundaries Crossed- Vital for our Natural World: Tree of Life vs Tree of Knowledge,
(Economy, Money, Market, Power, Influence, Engineered World)
4. Climate Change, Climate Agreements, Actions and/or our Inter-State Behaviors,
Organizations, Commitments and Relationships: Polarisations, Lawyers, Politics & Courts,
Blame Games, Anxieties & Fears, GreenWash, Illusions, Corruptions, Conflicts, Wars vs
Peace, Hope, Bridge Building, Reforms, Good Future Making
5. Geo-politics of Emotions: Collaborations or Rivalries and Competitions. Energy
Availabilities, Affordabilities vs Energy Securities, Weaponisation, Sanctions, Supply Chain
securities: Energy to All vs Energy “The Prize” , To Me, First and Best.
Red-Lines, GreenWish, GreenWash and the Real Deal
268
Greenwashing Top 15 (it was tough cutting the list from 100+) by Assaad Razouk (energy specialist)
1 Big Oil rebranding methane gas decades ago as “natural”
2 Big Oil inventing carbon footprint calculators
3 Any corporate plastic “recycling” pledge: Of all the plastic ever created, only 9% has been recycled
4 Carbon capture projects
5 The green bond market: All bonds should be green
6 Any polluting company making noises about “planting trees.
7 Voluntary carbon markets (their time is long gone)
8 Corporate "net zero" pledges with no plans to cut emissions to zero
9 Oil companies trumpeting renewables while planning to maintain or increase oil & gas production
10 The IEA's '7 Key Principles for Implementing Net Zero' document omitting any mention of the words "oil", "gas", "coal" or "fossil fuels"
11 Anything insurance companies say about net zero or cutting fossil fuel exposure
12 Law firms
13 Almost all of the ESG financial industry
14 Saudi Arabia wanting to plant 10 billion trees even though it doesn't have a single river
15 Carbon neutral LNG cargos

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EDI Executive Education MasterClass- 15thMay 2024 (updated).pdf

  • 1. Founding partners New Energy Realities, Transition and Innovation Halfway 2030 Executive Programme, Paris 15th May 2024 Adriaan Kamp- Founder of Energy For One World
  • 2. Adriaan Kamp Energy For One World (2012- Present) A consulting practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Leadership. Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership Education 20 years Industry and Shell International Upstream ( 5 Countries and EPHQ).
  • 3. Contents of Masterclass Module 1 New Energy Realities 5 Key Drivers of Change & New Energy Possibilities Module 2 Organising for Success: Making the Change(s) to Scale Module 3 Leadership over Change (/Innovation)
  • 4. 2024 War(s): Ukraine, Israel/ Gaza Energy Security and Affordability “ De-Risking” and “ Diversification” viz-a-viz Calls for a New World Order
  • 5. 5 Key Drivers of Change, New Energy Possibilities 5 Present Key Drivers of Change • Global Human Development & Economic Growth • Strength of our Underground • Nature and our Planetary Boundaries • Climate Change and Climate Realities • Our Geo-Politics of Emotions 1+2+3+4 (+5)= “ Holistic Eco-system” New Technology & Possibilities • “ The Great Electrification” , AI, etc.
  • 6. 6 2021 2030-2050 7.9 Billion People 10 Billion People 100 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day (15 TW) 500- 750 million oil eq/day (55 TW) 414 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 1.5 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
  • 7. Question for the 21st century: Will it all fit? 7
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Club of Rome (2nd March 1972): Limits to Growth
  • 12. Club of Rome (2nd March 1972-2nd March 2022): 50 years Limits to Growth 1972 Limits To Growth.First UN Environmental Conference in Stockholm, Sweden. Establishment of UNEP in Kenya. 1972 Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon visit China 1975 End of Vietnam War 1979 Margaret Thatcher PM of UK 1981: Reagan becomes president of the USA. Start of NeoLiberal World Order. 1986: Microsoft IPO 1987 Gro Brundtland Report: “ Our Common Future” Gordon Gekko “ Greed is Good” in Wall Street Blockbuster Movie 1989 Fall Berlin Wall 1992 Rio Conference 1995 First COP meeting in Bonn 1996 Start of Mobile Internet 2000 China joins WTO- and global free-trade got its other boost 2000 Millenium Development Goals 2001 9/11 - Fall of Twin Tower 2012 Rio + 20 2015 COP21, UNSDGs adopted at UN. Laudato Si! 2016 Trump President- Exit Paris, Brexit 2021 - 2022 Corona, COP26, 27, 28 2024- Wars in Ukraine/ Israel. Calls for a New World Order/ Multi-Polar
  • 13.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Sir David Attenborough: A Life on our Planet, Planet Earth III 19
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Sultan Al Jaber : Bringing the World together for COP28: 1.5 Degrees alive
  • 31. COP28 (2) 1st Global Stocktake (Ambition Level) Input Regional Climate Summits (“ Global South” ) Climate Finance- Marrakech, COP28 Presidency “ Activation” of the Paris Agreement Inclusion of Fossil Fuel Industry (e.g. methane emissions pledge, “ unabated” oil and gas, subsidies, tax) Loss and Damage Finance, Finance, Finance
  • 32.
  • 33. 2023: “ Climate Realities”
  • 34. 2023: “ Climate Realities”
  • 36.
  • 37. Climate Litigation vs the Corporate and the Prize Agenda?
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42. Key Take-Aways from this Global Summit 0) Key panelists believed that we have said farewell to the liberal world order, known to us - over the past 30 years. (1) Almost all of the audience and panelists no longer believed that the 1.5 Degrees Paris Agreement was attainable, and that the 2030 emissions reduction targets (re. Net Zero) will be achieved. There is a long long overshoot and delays. Politicians should start to share these realities. (2) The US IRA is attracting Europe renewable businesses and investments away from Europe. However, and due to the sentiments on Energy Security in the US and elsewhere; GE sees that Nuclear and Gas are now " top performers in energy order portfolios" - and that " Wind, Grids and Renewables" are building-up backlogs (jammed FID queues) (3) The present Geo-Politics prevents us from having the good, more open and better conversations across the boards: Energy Security and New Trade Protectionism is hampering trust, the energy transition or sustainability efforts. The present sensitivities, strive and vulnerabilities- also over the new energy system- on and with China, self evident. (4) No matter how many Spring Meetings there will be, with new promises or finance flows from the North to the South- by Politicians and Bankers , without the relevant attendance of the Private Sector and Society- nothing will move. There is an urgent need for (new styled) "Convening Power" - and where all relevant stakeholders (legal, finance, economy, ecology, gov/ business, business and program development of BigOil and Electrification" -are getting to one table-and to frame and realize the New. This is true: nationally, regionally and in our global trade relations. And it is about PPP. (5) There was also time for, as some will say, the more " woke agenda" : energy poverty and energy justice. A lady from the Biden Administration knew how to mention that 50% of Black America has problems with paying their energy bills, and that it is also a known fact that the poorer families of America live next door to heavy and polluting refineries and industries: shortening their lives. "Energy Transition" without eyes for these injustices- is missing the point: it is to be all inclusive. (6) Mr. Podesta, the " new" special climate envoy of the Biden Administration (replacing John Kerry)- well first of all, and for all to see, is a different man and character then the charismatic John Kerry, and secondly- and not unimportantly- brought-in a new Big Elephant in the Room (and in the US international trade relations): Rightly he started to mention that the global trade market has gone perhaps too intense with shipping products (oil, containers, manufactured goods) over the seas and in the skies: intense carbon emissions. However, in his lecture (" he read his message from paper" )- there was a clear undertone that some, if not most of the new trading rules in his mind,were there to protect American manufacturing, advance its position and disadvantage or punish China and/or (more polluting) developing nations: perhaps not such an elegant, wise or fair position to take!
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. 45 UN SDGs- Global Responsibilities
  • 46. 46
  • 47. UNSDGS- Accelerating the Critical Transitions Required 47
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. Sachs on the “ Economy of Francesco”
  • 53.
  • 54. 197 countries need to change
  • 55. War in Ukraine : The Great De-coupling Extension of Coal Licenses, Imports of new LNG, Energy Saving Measures, Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports, Rationing of Gas Consumption, Doubling of Renewables Capacities, Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers, Oil Reserves, Scouting for New Safe Resource Basins, including New Fracking, Accelerating Transitions,
  • 56. War in Ukraine Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (1) Closing the Ranks: If…then…Me, We, They, Them and The Others… ….Are we truly “ in control” ? Extension of Coal Licenses, Imports of new LNG to Europe from US, Qatar, Africa Energy Saving Measures, Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports, (Western Companies sanctionting or exiting Russian Assets and Market) Rationing of Gas Consumption, Doubling of Renewables Capacities, Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers, Access to Oil Reserves, Scouting for New Safe Resource Basins, including New Fracking, Accelerating Transitions, etc. etc.
  • 57. War in Ukraine Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (2) "In uncertain times, one of bp's primary roles is to maintain the safe, secure supply of the energy on which societies depend. The importance of that role has rarely been clearer than in recent weeks." Helge Lund, chair
  • 58.
  • 59. 59 The Saudi Prince of Oil Prices Vows to Drill ‘Every Last Molecule’
  • 60. "The debate around climate targets was “very emotional” he said. “The focus of everyone should be about reducing emissions. But you cannot invest for the industry now, it is total chaos I have to say. Total chaos, the whole debate and the whole discussion.”
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69.
  • 70. Contents of Masterclass Module 1 New Energy Realities 5 Key Drivers of Change & New Energy Possibilities Module 2 Organising for Success: Making the Change(s) to Scale Module 3 Leadership over Change (/Innovation)
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74. Elon Musk: A Future Worth getting Excited about
  • 75. Elon Musk/ Tesla- MasterPlan 3
  • 78. “COP26: On the back of an envelope”- 130 trillion USD 130 trillion over 30 years, is about 4 trillion per year. Will that work? Let me give you some hints: First of all, Today, our world energy system has a working capacity of about 15-20 TW, and that equals 15- 20 Trillion USD in assets. Presently, every year, the world needs approximately 300-400 Bn USD/annum to counter depletion, allow for growth and maintain or keep the oil and gas flowing. Over coming decades our world energy system is expected to double: to at least 40-50 TW is thus 40-50 Trillion USD in assets. So spending 4 trillion USD per annum (on energy system), in a present world economy of 100 trillion USD) looks like (more than) enough to see the job gets done (ie invest in existing and new infrastructures transition) Now and But, : We, OECD, have today nor the capacity, nor the capabilities(manufacturing, value chains) nor the skills (program management, engineers, construction people), nor the socio-economic and political system to make these transition spending programs at home, or abroad. And: We need “to drive” our present incumbent energy corporations to change this, scale-up and step-up. And as a Swedish Foreign Investment Manager noted: It is not about the money or on paper. This is about the real physical world: we find it difficult to create bankable projects in a messy world, abroad. Collectively, we are invited to become much better in project framing and de-risking- and realize beyond our imagination. The US-China co-operation and Boris Johnson New Grid Initiative (with India) - can be the Kick-starter to see this going- and free-up this dream of making Energy Free of Concerns.
  • 79. From 80-20 till (60-40) till 20-80 before 2050: 4 Trillion USD/annum .
  • 80. What “Power” comes out of your “Socket” ? As Black as Black can be (Coal, Dirt, Unfair), And Unreliable Affordable, Nor Sustainable Grey Gas Powered Imported LNG Gas, with ETS Offsets/ Nature Based Solutions. Available, Costly (but not 100% Sustainable) Local Utility Scaled Renewables Plus Gas/ CCUS Plus ETS/ Nature Based Solutions With market rivalries, profit seeking and competitions Available?, Affordable? (and not 100% sustainable) Regional Utility Scaled Renewables (Super Grid) Plus Local mini-grids and Zero-Plus Home (and sustainable, circular economy value chains) (Energy Free of Concerns)
  • 81.
  • 82. WEC 2022: Energy for Humanity- St Petersburg: Cancelled! 82
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85. 1 Energy is a system- behind every button, switch and fuel pump is a myriad of connections. 2. Energy Transition is a Process, not a destination and it cannot be delivered all in one go. 3. Diversity in energy systems is increasing in the broadest sense- geographies, technologies, skills, and cultures 4. The Future of Energy cannot be predicted, but better energy futures can be co-created if we avoid fear , and open-up to new and progressive bridges and pathways 5. Energy Technology Transition always involves societal disruption and transformation 1. Rebalancing act between our Engineered World with that of Nature. 2. Rebalancing act between ourselves- Rich- Poor, North-South, East-West, Have and Have nots. 3. It is about the Climate AND it is about the UN SDGs 4. It is about making new Energy-Economies Architectures: Sustainable, Inclusive and Free of Concerns. Here and There. Now and Tomorrow 5. It is about Responsible, Decent and Servant Leadership WEC 100 years lessons on Energy Transitions EFOW 10 years lessons with Energy Transition ( e.g. 99 Theses to Build Back Better) WEC : World Energy Council led by Dr Angela Wilkinson
  • 86. 86
  • 87. A Couple of (Policy) Recommendations (from 99 Theses to Build Back Better) 1. Re-frame our present neo-liberal free-market Economies, there where required: From Wealth to Well-Being, and in more harmony with Nature. De-growth & Circularities - where needed. 2. Take Energy Transition Seriously- for making Energy-Economies Free of Concerns: Realize the 3 to 4 tn USD/annum Finance, Capacities and Capabilities Build-up for “The Great Electrification” 3. Re-organize present Energy Market Constellation- see Quadrant-, in the West and with the Rest: Away from Free Market, Portfolio Opportunism & Sole Ownerships towards true new and shared R&R, Utility and Commitments towards New Energy Architectures.( “ Utility to the People” - there where relevant). 4. Realize UNSDGs in Trade and Trade Relations. Businesses and Governments can act here more aligned and attuned. Strengthen UN Global Compact. 5. Build New Bridges of Peace, Capabilities and Hope.
  • 88. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
  • 89.
  • 90. Organizing ourselves: “zippered”- in dimensions Mainstream • UN Re-organisation; UN 2.0 (0) • Governments (1) • Corporates and Global Compact (2a): Energy Transitions to Scale • Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b) • New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3) • Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4) 1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up • Community, Start-up Community (5)
  • 92. Our world is under construction: The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada The top 10 cities by population: 1. Tokyo, (34 million) 2. Seoul (24.4 million) 3. Guangzhou (24.2 million) 4. Mexico City (23.4 million) 5. Delhi (23.2 million) 6. Mumbai (22.8 million) 7. New York (22.2 million) 8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million) 9. Manila (19.6 million) 10. Shanghai (19.4 million) All above fit comfortably into the list Of Top-50 nations by population
  • 93. Some Regional Development Examples (as it is today)
  • 94.
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  • 97.
  • 98. 98 Saudi Aramco IPO: the value of good reserves 960 × 540 Wall Street Journal
  • 99.
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  • 109. 109
  • 110. India will continue to rely on coal power until it becomes developed country: Environment Minister Responding to a question at a press conference here, the minister also said India resisted pressure from developed countries to end the use of fossil fuels at the UN climate conference in the United Arab Emirates.
  • 111.
  • 112.
  • 113. 113
  • 114. 114
  • 115. 115
  • 116. Click to Go To Website Germany: An example how it works- in real
  • 117.
  • 119. Siemens Dismantling an Icon Since Kaeser took charge in 2013, there has been a flurry of spin-offs, carve outs and joint ventures at the German giant ● May 2014: Siemens slims its divisions to nine from 16; carves out health care and announces listing of hearing aid business ● September 2014: Siemens sells stake in kitchen and washing machine business to Bosch ● November 2014: Sells hearing-aid unit to EQT for 2.14 billion euros ($2.4 billion) ● June 2016: Announces merger of wind power division to form Siemens Gamesa ● November 2016: Announces Siemens Healthineers will be brought to market ● February 2019: Plan to form rail joint venture with France’s Alstom is blocked by European authorities ● May 2019: Siemens announces plan to carve out power and gas businesses ● 2023-2024 Siemens Gasema Wind Turbine Troubles and Loss making. Restructuring for New Growth.
  • 120. Germany Coal Commission: Phase-Out 2038 (??) 120 BERLIN (Reuters) - 26.1.2019: Germany should shut down all of its coal-fired power plants by 2038 at the latest, a government-appointed commission said on Saturday, proposing at least 40 billion euros ($45.7 billion) in aid to regions affected by the phase-out.
  • 122. New Government; New Worldview. New Realities
  • 123. Germany Energiewende Goals: Climate neutral by 2045 Phasing-out of Coal by 2030 (Luzerath!) Outlaw combustion engines (e-fuels) End Gas Power Some Realities: Nuclear exit, Gas from Russia Ended. New Power, Gas, Oil deals with Scandinavia, US, Qatar, Africa Step-up Hydrogen, LNG, Wind/Solar, PowerGrids Need to fill-up gas storage again 85% (1 oct), 95% by (1 nov) Dramatically behind in target to achieve 80% renewable Power by 2030, as well 65% emission reductions. State subsidies on Energy to Industry, to combat US, China competition. “ Mittelstand” Energy Prices sky-high. Rescued and Nationalised part of Utilities (Uniper, in talks with RWE)
  • 124. Energy in the Netherlands (1) • PVV, VVD, BBB and NSC? Face of the new PM? • What to do after “Groningen Gas (21/12 Bcm) & New Energy Transition (Climate) Accord- II ? • What to do with/after Pernis? • Electrification of Homes, Cars, Transport and Cities • Greening of intensive energy Industries-, Agri-, Petro-; • Regional Energy Markets • What new export markets are there to create?
  • 125. Energy in the Netherlands (2) The challenge the Dutch are facing is a triple national budget and investment challenge: • 1. The decrease in (state) income due to the earlier closure of Groningen Gas. The estimated economic value of the lost gas is between 50-125 Billion Euro. • 2. Additional expenses to be able to import Gas (temporarily) and as "bridging fuel" - in the transition and accelerated investments in (eg) Wind Offshore, as an alternative to the loss of Groningen Gas. • 3. Renovation of Dutch energy architecture: Investments in electrification, the built environment and agri-, industry- to "get off gas / gasless" and to meet Paris [1] • War in Ukraine 125
  • 126. Rutte IV—> New Faced Cabinet
  • 127. A New Green (Energy) Plan ?- NW Europe
  • 128.
  • 129.
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  • 132.
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  • 134.
  • 135.
  • 136. 136
  • 137. EU “New Green Deal”- (1) 137
  • 138.
  • 139. EU “New Green Deal” (2) 139
  • 140. EU Fit for 55 140
  • 141. Mario Draghi- on Europe’s Agenda and Challenge
  • 142.
  • 143.
  • 144.
  • 145. Europe EU/ US New Energy Realities
  • 146.
  • 147.
  • 148.
  • 149.
  • 150. Key Take-Aways from this Global Summit 0) Key panelists believed that we have said farewell to the liberal world order, known to us - over the past 30 years. (1) Almost all of the audience and panelists no longer believed that the 1.5 Degrees Paris Agreement was attainable, and that the 2030 emissions reduction targets (re. Net Zero) will be achieved. There is a long long overshoot and delays. Politicians should start to share these realities. (2) The US IRA is attracting Europe renewable businesses and investments away from Europe. However, and due to the sentiments on Energy Security in the US and elsewhere; GE sees that Nuclear and Gas are now " top performers in energy order portfolios" - and that " Wind, Grids and Renewables" are building-up backlogs (jammed FID queues) (3) The present Geo-Politics prevents us from having the good, more open and better conversations across the boards: Energy Security and New Trade Protectionism is hampering trust, the energy transition or sustainability efforts. The present sensitivities, strive and vulnerabilities- also over the new energy system- on and with China, self evident. (4) No matter how many Spring Meetings there will be, with new promises or finance flows from the North to the South- by Politicians and Bankers , without the relevant attendance of the Private Sector and Society- nothing will move. There is an urgent need for (new styled) "Convening Power" - and where all relevant stakeholders (legal, finance, economy, ecology, gov/ business, business and program development of BigOil and Electrification" -are getting to one table-and to frame and realize the New. This is true: nationally, regionally and in our global trade relations. And it is about PPP. (5) There was also time for, as some will say, the more " woke agenda" : energy poverty and energy justice. A lady from the Biden Administration knew how to mention that 50% of Black America has problems with paying their energy bills, and that it is also a known fact that the poorer families of America live next door to heavy and polluting refineries and industries: shortening their lives. "Energy Transition" without eyes for these injustices- is missing the point: it is to be all inclusive. (6) Mr. Podesta, the " new" special climate envoy of the Biden Administration (replacing John Kerry)- well first of all, and for all to see, is a different man and character then the charismatic John Kerry, and secondly- and not unimportantly- brought-in a new Big Elephant in the Room (and in the US international trade relations): Rightly he started to mention that the global trade market has gone perhaps too intense with shipping products (oil, containers, manufactured goods) over the seas and in the skies: intense carbon emissions. However, in his lecture (" he read his message from paper" )- there was a clear undertone that some, if not most of the new trading rules in his mind,were there to protect American manufacturing, advance its position and disadvantage or punish China and/or (more polluting) developing nations: perhaps not such an elegant, wise or fair position to take!
  • 151.
  • 152.
  • 153. US Congress Hearing on Biden Costs for Carbon Neutrality
  • 154.
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  • 163.
  • 164. Some Examples- from our Energy Sector (“as it was yesterday”)
  • 165. Focus Areas (Energy Sector) (Year 2019 and beyond- example only) Oil& Petrochemicals – Plastics in the Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon in the Atmosphere Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and Mobility- Energy Architectures Energy Architecture Developments, Economies and UN SDGs GeoPolitics, Free trade and “Energy to All” or “Energy-Economies Free of Concerns” Change & Transformation
  • 166. Old and New Clickable Presentations Vs 350 Bn USD investment
  • 167. From 80-20 till (60-40) till 20-80 before 2050: 4 Trillion USD/annum .
  • 170. On the Power (electricity) system and market 170
  • 171. Shells van Beurden: “Re-organizing to Fit” 171
  • 172. Shells van Beurden: “Outrage vs. Optimism” 172
  • 173.
  • 174. “Society” Judging and Questing the Honesty and Responsible Leadership of BigOil Boardrooms and Execs.
  • 175. Shell M&A “ Portfolio Strategy” vs Transition Obligations
  • 176.
  • 177. BigOil (former) CEOs- now also Blackstone and KKR advisors, steering Energy Transition Investments
  • 178.
  • 179. 179 The Saudi Prince of Oil Prices Vows to Drill ‘Every Last Molecule’
  • 180.
  • 181.
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  • 183.
  • 184.
  • 185. Halfway 2030: New (institutionalised) possibilities thinking ,with Lessons Learned post-covid, Ukraine, New World Order 1. How do we look at our earlier options and choices, now? 2. What is going well? What can we celebrate ? 3. What is “under pressure or may turn out- an illusion”? 4. What may need to change- in our approach and tone of voice- knowing how Paris Agreement and UNSDGs were constructed? 5. What key (sector, market, corporate strategic ) choices, interventions and (integrated) decisions can we better mak? 6. What is (urgently) needed in order to succeed in what we are planning and aiming to deliver- to our children and grand-children? What opportunities are we planning for to deliver now and in 2030? 185
  • 186. A Couple of (Policy) Recommendations (from 99 Theses to Build Back Better) 1. Re-frame our present neo-liberal free-market Economies, there where required: From Wealth to Well-Being, and in more harmony with Nature. De-growth & Circularities - where needed. 2. Take Energy Transition Seriously- for making Energy-Economies Free of Concerns: Realize the 3 to 4 tn USD/annum Finance, Capacities and Capabilities Build-up for “The Great Electrification” 3. Re-organize present Energy Market Constellation- see Quadrant-, in the West and with the Rest: Away from Free Market, Portfolio Opportunism & Sole Ownerships towards true new and shared R&R, Utility and Commitments towards New Energy Architectures.( “ Utility to the People” - there where relevant). 4. Realize UNSDGs in Trade and Trade Relations. Businesses and Governments can act here more aligned and attuned. Strengthen UN Global Compact. 5. Build New Bridges of Peace, Capabilities and Hope.
  • 187. A little conceptual.. (adding it all together)
  • 188. 188
  • 189. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. 189 Energy Architecture
  • 190.
  • 191. Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “New Cross-Overs on Integration, Transition and Transformation” Renewables Energy Efficiency Product Re-designs Energy Architectures Re-designs Fossil 1 2 3 4 5
  • 192. Princeton Wedges Grow and Safe Energy Change Energy Supply Source Change Energy Architecture Change Products (Cars, Homes) & Industry Designs Change Energy- Economy and Direction of Lifestyles: Welfare Change Leadership / Corporation Paradigm 192
  • 193. Levels of Change •Level 1 •Level 2 •Level 3 •Level 4 • Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying • Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and capital control structures • Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate business models- also in international trade • Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
  • 194. The way it works: Country Categories and Markets (1) •OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia •(Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec •China Inc., India Inc. •Developing (without Resources) •Developing (with Resources) •Least developed. Poor.
  • 195. The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade
  • 196. Mainstream •Governments (1) •Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2) •New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3) •Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4) 1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up •Community, Start-up Community (5) The way it works (3): New Forms of Collaborations
  • 197. The way it may work (4): Finding the Rubik-Cube Combination “Organizational Forms and Formats” - that works “Horizontal and Vertical Integration” 197 e.g. Country Categories, Geographies & Markets Business Formula- and Cross-Sectors Forms of Collaboration ● Strengthening human well-being and capabilities; ● Shifting towards sustainable and just economies; ● Building sustainable food systems and healthy nutrition patterns; ● Achieving energy decarbonization and universal access to energy; ● Promoting sustainable urban and peri-urban development; and ● Securing the global environmental commons.
  • 198.
  • 199. Contents of Masterclass Module 1 New Energy Realities 5 Key Drivers of Change & New Energy Possibilities Module 2 Organising for Success: Making the Change(s) to Scale Module 3 Leadership over Change (/Innovation)
  • 200. A Couple of (Policy) Recommendations (from 99 Theses to Build Back Better) 1. Re-frame our present neo-liberal free-market Economies, there where required: From Wealth to Well-Being, and in more harmony with Nature. De-growth & Circularities - where needed. 2. Take Energy Transition Seriously- for making Energy-Economies Free of Concerns: Realize the 3 to 4 tn USD/annum Finance, Capacities and Capabilities Build-up for “The Great Electrification” 3. Re-organize present Energy Market Constellation- see Quadrant-, in the West and with the Rest: Away from Free Market, Portfolio Opportunism & Sole Ownerships towards true new and shared R&R, Utility and Commitments towards New Energy Architectures.( “ Utility to the People” - there where relevant). 4. Realize UNSDGs in Trade and Trade Relations. Businesses and Governments can act here more aligned and attuned. Strengthen UN Global Compact. 5. Build New Bridges of Peace, Capabilities and Hope.
  • 201. 20 1 UN Global Compact- 20 years: It needs your HELP!
  • 203. 197 countries need to change
  • 204. BRI and Global Gateway: With Each Other or Against
  • 205. 205
  • 206.
  • 207. “Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan Kamp, -2015 Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015 207
  • 208. "The invitation we have today is to see and to blend our consciousness and care for Deep Peace, Deep Humanity and Deep Ecology with our more mainstream energy economics and politics- at play" Let us direct our work and collective efforts towards attaining “Energy Free of Concerns & Societies Free of Concerns” Here and There. Now and Tomorrow Adriaan Kamp 208
  • 209. Building and realizing New Bridges
  • 210. One World. Many Needs. Many Views
  • 211. Founding partners “In Leadership- we are all students for life” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 212. Leadership Levels •Managing Yourself •Managing Others •Managing complex change & •Managing communities & multi-stakeholders change
  • 213. Managing yourself Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 214. Founding partners “Only good can come from good” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 215. How much do you know about (your) self? Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 216. What happy people know Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 218. The answer to Hate, Greed, Social Injustice is Dignity (Agape) and Peace 218
  • 219.
  • 220. Founding partners “Manage others as you would like to be managed yourself” (golden rule) Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 221. Managing innovation & change- Internal/ External Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 222. Founding partners “The art of making things Better” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 223. 223
  • 224. Sources of Innovation • Big- Bets • 1001-Nights, Kaizen/Takumi • From Idea to Business (Gamechangers)
  • 226. Napoleon’s Six Winning Principles, and Leading in the Front • EXACTITUDE awareness, research and continuous planning • SPEED reducing resistance, increasing urgency, and providing focus • FLEXIBILITY building teams that are adaptable, empowered and unified • SIMPLICITY clear, simple objectives, messages, and processes • CHARACTER integrity, calmness, and responsibility • MORAL FORCE providing order, purpose, recognition and rewards Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 227. Kelly Johnson’s Skunk Work Rules Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 228. Styles Differs- too. Two trillion dollar club successes 228
  • 230.
  • 231. From 80-20 till (60-40) till 20-80 before 2050: 4 Trillion USD/annum .
  • 232. 232 We cannot save the Planet (Climate, Nature), if we cannot save the People (Economy, Social Justice). The People cannot be saved, if the Planet (Nature) is broken, at risk or fails (e.g. pollution, resource scarcities, climate risks). We better first solve (our problems, our conflicts, our pains), before we can make true progress and change”
  • 233. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved “”Resistance to change falls when the benefits are made clear Resistance to change falls when the Story feels Right (“The Star” is Chosen “Right”) We cannot “run” ourselves into Sustainability. Slow down and walk in more beauty.
  • 234. Responsible (& Situational) Leadership Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 236. 236
  • 237. 237
  • 238. Servant Leadership •Compassionate love •Authenticity •Humbleness •Empowerment •Provide direction •Stewardship Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound
  • 239. Can We Listen before Change?
  • 240. Hofstede: Cultures and Organizations. The way it works 240 The Way it Works for a System Rethink World View Cultures Institutions Our Leadership Ways
  • 242. Founding partners “In Leadership- we are all students for life” Deep Peace Deep Humanity Deep Ecology Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  • 243.
  • 244.
  • 246. 246 1. Sustainable Development- a new kind of Globalization (2016) 2. Sustainable Humanity (2012) 3. We can no longer manage decency (2018) 4. Aga Khan University Special Lecture Series: Can we find a shared global ethics for the 21st century? (2020) “Leading Global Decency”
  • 247.
  • 248.
  • 249. 99 Theses to Build Back Better (available on Amazon) 249
  • 250. (EFOW) Summit of the Future & Agenda 2024
  • 251.
  • 252.
  • 253.
  • 254. A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership. Energy For One World Adriaan Kamp (Founder) Skype: Adriaan.Kamp TelCall Direct line (Netherlands): 0031-614939194 E-Mail: adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.com www.EnergyForOneWorld.com
  • 255. A Brief History of our Industry (1) Atoms and Electrons Colonel Drake- Titusville, 1859 Edison - Pearl Street Station, 1882 John D. Rockefeller, 1870 Henry Ford- 1914
  • 256. A Brief History of our Industry (2) 50 years ago 1974 1972 Brent Field Development 1975
  • 257. UPSTREAM OFFSHORE PLATFORM OIL SANDS Bitumen DOWNSTREAM Feedstock Synthetic crude oil Fuels, lubricants and speciality products including Bitumen and liquefied petroleum gas UPGRADER PLANT Oil REFINERY Gas LNG LIQUEFICATION PLANT GAS TO LIQUIDS PLANT BIOFUELS PLANT BIOFUELS PLANT WIND TURBINES Energy for industrial and domestic use LNG REGASIFICATION TERMINAL POWER STATION ONSHORE PRODUCTION FACILITY Gas Oil CHEMICAL PLANT Petrochemicals used for plastics, Coatings and detergents Global Oil & Gas businesses
  • 258. Oil & Gas: A successful energy story well over 100 years 1859 1870 1910 1910s WW II 1919 1938 Colonel Drake find oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania Royal Dutch/Shell Group of companies created Exciting times for the oil industry Expansion in Europe, Africa and the Americas Mass production of cars: a vast new market US Petroleum Administration of War with US Oil companies made a strategic advantage in fuelling the war. Strategic importance of oil tankers. First non-stop flight across the Atlantic, powered by Shell fuel Oil struck in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Damman-7 1833 - 1945 1907, Meanwhile in the Netherlands Rockefeller creates Standard Oil Company and find business model for growth Henry Ford introduces the model T-Ford and first assembly line
  • 259. Oil & Gas: A successful energy story well over 100 years 1950s & 1960s Oil crises. Opening- up of the North Sea. Turn to natural gas, good for 15% of Europe’s energy consumption, Shell supplying about half. Pioneering liquefied natural gas (LNG). IEA being created in 1973/1974. 1980s 1990s 2001 2008 The golden age for the Seven Sisters. Creation of OPEC. Advanced offshore technology, new products and services Start selling unleaded petrol. IOC hold global leadership position Changing faces in the oil industry: the rise and importance of national oil companies . Creation of IEF WWII - 2023 1970s 2009+ Industry growth, including new frontiers such as Arctic, Deep-Sea, Unconventional Oil & Gas.. The Golden Age of Gas 9/11 and its aftermath. Rapid rise of (new) energy demand in the East. Oil hits 100 USD/ barrel.
  • 260.
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  • 264.
  • 265.
  • 266.
  • 267. 5 Key Factors Determining Our New Energy Realities 2.0 1. Direction of our Human Development: Population, Wealth, Lifestyles & Habits, Resource Use, Energy: Intense vs. More Durable, Sustainable 2. Strength of our Underground: Oil , Gas, Earth Mineral Resources- (E)ROI and Durabilities of Reserves (> next 100 years) 3. Planetary Boundaries and Our Relationships with Nature, 6 out of 9 Planetary Boundaries Crossed- Vital for our Natural World: Tree of Life vs Tree of Knowledge, (Economy, Money, Market, Power, Influence, Engineered World) 4. Climate Change, Climate Agreements, Actions and/or our Inter-State Behaviors, Organizations, Commitments and Relationships: Polarisations, Lawyers, Politics & Courts, Blame Games, Anxieties & Fears, GreenWash, Illusions, Corruptions, Conflicts, Wars vs Peace, Hope, Bridge Building, Reforms, Good Future Making 5. Geo-politics of Emotions: Collaborations or Rivalries and Competitions. Energy Availabilities, Affordabilities vs Energy Securities, Weaponisation, Sanctions, Supply Chain securities: Energy to All vs Energy “The Prize” , To Me, First and Best.
  • 268. Red-Lines, GreenWish, GreenWash and the Real Deal 268 Greenwashing Top 15 (it was tough cutting the list from 100+) by Assaad Razouk (energy specialist) 1 Big Oil rebranding methane gas decades ago as “natural” 2 Big Oil inventing carbon footprint calculators 3 Any corporate plastic “recycling” pledge: Of all the plastic ever created, only 9% has been recycled 4 Carbon capture projects 5 The green bond market: All bonds should be green 6 Any polluting company making noises about “planting trees. 7 Voluntary carbon markets (their time is long gone) 8 Corporate "net zero" pledges with no plans to cut emissions to zero 9 Oil companies trumpeting renewables while planning to maintain or increase oil & gas production 10 The IEA's '7 Key Principles for Implementing Net Zero' document omitting any mention of the words "oil", "gas", "coal" or "fossil fuels" 11 Anything insurance companies say about net zero or cutting fossil fuel exposure 12 Law firms 13 Almost all of the ESG financial industry 14 Saudi Arabia wanting to plant 10 billion trees even though it doesn't have a single river 15 Carbon neutral LNG cargos