Influencing policy (training slides from Fast Track Impact)
Statistics and modelisation for QbD
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5. Pharmaceutical Development Preclinical From Drug discovery to animal testing (Toxicology) Phase I Phase II Phase III Safety Safety Efficacy Efficacy Dose Commercial Process Development Production Laboratory GMP Validation 3 Batches Traditionnal Development (Minimal Approach) Phase IV PharmacoVigilance Process Design Continuous Verification Enhanced Quality by Design Approach IND/IMPD (First in Man) (e)CTD (AMM) Qualification
6. Enhanced Quality by Design Approach Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Process Design Continuous Verification Product Target Quality Profile Potential Critical/Key Quality Attributes Process Design Potential Critical/Key Parameters Design Space Prior Knowledge Science DoE Risk Management (wc)Critical/Key Parameters Critical/Key Quality Attributes Control Strategy Qualification
7. Statistics and Modelisation Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Product Life Cycle Process Development DoE : Factorial Design Identification of Critical Parameters
8. Statistics and Modelisation Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Product Life Cycle Process Optimisation DoE : Response Surface Model Optimisation and Modelisation In silico modelisation To establish Range and Specifications
9. Statistics and Modelisation Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Product Life Cycle Process Characterisation Scale Down Validation DoE : Factorial Design Demonstration of Range and Specifications Definition of Design Space
10. Statistics and Modelisation Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Product Life Cycle Process Validation/characterisation Multivariate Analysis Demonstration of scale up and reproducibility 1 L 350 L
11. Statistics and Modelisation Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Product Life Cycle Continued Process Verification Multivariate Analysis Graph Plot
12. UMFP - formulation Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Product Life Cycle Empirical development Qualitative Justification (//Factorial) Quantitative Justification (//RSM)
13. Analytics/Quality Control Preclinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Product Life Cycle Development Validation Qualification (?) (including Robustness by DoE)
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17. Regulatory and Science 18th century 1946 1985 (De Moivre) (Placket Burman) FMEA Normal Law DoE 1944 1960 1988 Monte Carlo Simulation Bayesian Statistics (Harry) Six Sigma 2000 Neuronal Network 2005 2006 2009(?) ICH Q8 ICH Q9 FDA validation QbD In Place in LFB Training (SOP, training) To be extended Regulatory Phamaceutical development becomes a modern Science
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27. Normal law : average and s.d Average : x position s.d : width Area under the curve = 1
42. Tool 1 : IMPACT and UNCERTAINTY AES : Adverses Events, ATA : Anti Therapeutic Antibody No AES ATA not detected No impact on PK/PD No change None = 2 Minor AES ATA detected with minimal in vivo effect Acceptable change with no impact on PD Acceptable change Low = 4 Manageable AES ATA detected with in vivo manageable effect Moderate change with no impact on PD Moderate change Moderate = 12 Reversible AES ATA detected and confers limits on efficacy Moderate change with impact on PD Significant change High = 16 Irrevesible AES ATA detected and confers limits on safety Significant change on PK Very significant change Very High = 20 Safety Immunogenicity PK/PD Efficacy Impact (Score)
43. Tool 1 : IMPACT and UNCERTAINTY GRAS : generally recognised as safe GRAS or studied in clinical trials No impact of specific variant present at higher level in batches used in clinical trials Very low = 1 --- Variant present at same level in batches used in clinical trials Low = 2 Component used in previous process Non clinical or in vitro data with this variant, (data in vitro, non clinical or clinical from similar class Moderate = 3 --- Published external literature for variant in related molecule High = 5 No information (new impurity) No information (new variant) Very High = 7 Description (Process Raw Material) Description (variants and HCP) Uncertainty
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45. Tool 2 : SEVERITY AND LIKELIHOOD Very Low – no mesurable impact 1 Low immunogenicity potential or small reduction in efficacy 3 Moderate immunogenicity or reduction in efficacy 5 Bleeding not stopped due to lower efficacy or serious immune response 7 Very High-death, microbiology related infections, hypersensitivity immune reaction 9 Severity (impact to Product Efficacy and Patient Safety) Severity score
46. Tool 2 : SEVERITY AND LIKELIHOOD Very Low or never observed 1 Low 3 Moderate 5 High 7 Very High 9 Likelyhood of severity Likelihood score
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48. Tool 2 : SEVERITY AND LIKELIHOOD Very Low or never observed 1 Low 3 Moderate 5 High 7 Very High 9 Likelyhood of severity Likelihood score
80. High collinearity : regression by least square not efficient Use of Ridge statistics allows to analyse non orthogonal Design Lack of Orthogonality is not a problem -0.2684 -2.9287 Factor 3 -0.1870 -1.5614 Factor 2 0.6741 0.01 (ridge regression) 4.2637 0.0 (classical regression) Factor 1 Ridge parameter
81. OLS Ridge Same overall topology, but completely different precision of the model (Monte Carlo simulation…)
87. 3D View of critical factors and interactions C A B A B C AB AC BC ABC
88. Identification of critical factors and interactions Identification of Critical Factors and interaction Critical factors Place for improvement Reproducibility Half Normal Plot
95. Analyse statistique : Are the factors selected significant ? Ttest (P95) Comparison of A low –A high 5% Comparison of B low –B high 5% Comparison of C low –C high 5% Comparison of AB low –AB high 5% … Ttest not applicable - + Factor X Anova
96. Analyse statistique : ANOVA (Table) Factors Variation degree of SS/df MS/ residual associated selected associated freedom probability
115. Optimisation of chromatographic conditions Current conditions Optimised conditions Wash 1 : 25 % A 0.2 M B in 8 % A Wash 2 : 0.5 M B Elution : 0.5 M B in 25 % A 0.75 M B in 22.5 % A Only a mathematical model, results must be controled (C in 6sigma) Yield : 68 – 85 % 85 % HCP Clearance : 2.9 – 3.1 Log 4.1 Log
166. QbD strongly requested by Authorities, lack of implementation may lead not only to a Dossier Assessment Refusal Report but to the discontinuation of GMP authorisation for Manufacturing of Facility