3. 1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
Population and Youth in South Asia (2012)
Country
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Nepal
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Population
ages 15-64
(% of total)
50.3
66.8
64.7
59.4
61.3
65.4
66.6
66.0
Population
ages 0-14 (%
of total)
47.4
28.5
30.6
35.6
34.3
29.4
25.2
29.0
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
4. 2. Fast Urbanization & Agglomeration
Urbanization and Agglomeration in South Asia (2012)
Country
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Nepal
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Urban
population
(% of total)
Population in urban
agglomerations of
more than 1 million
(% of total
population)
23.9
36.3
28.9
17.3
36.5
31.7
15.2
42.2
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
10.7
14.9
19.2
12.7
-
6. 4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
CPIA public sector management and
institutions rating
(1=low to 6=high)
5
4
3
2
1
0
3.9
2.5
2.9
3
3.6
3.4
CPIA property rights and rule-based
governance rating 2012
(1=low to 6=high)
3.4
3.5
4
3
3
3
2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3
2.5
1.5
1
0
CPIA transparency, accountability, and
corruption in the public sector rating
2012 (1=low to 6=high)
Nepal
4.5
3.5
2
2.5
2.5
3
3
3
% of Total Firms
5
4
3
2
1
0
Firms competing against unregistered
firms 2009
49.4
Sri Lanka
47.4
Pakistan
12.4
Bangladesh
46.6
Bhutan
19.9
Afghanistan
45
0
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
10
20
30
40
50
60
7. 5. Disconnect with Sustainability
3.21
CO2 Emissions
3
2009
3
2
1972
1.66
2
0.95
1
1
0.60
0.23
0.62
0.34
0.13
Forest area (% of land area)
0
35
31
30
25
Percentage
(metric tons per capita)
4
20
17
15
10
5
0
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
South Asia
World
8. 6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Maldives
India
Pakistan
Bangladesh
18
24
5.6
17.5
19.9
16.8
0
10
20
(% of population)
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Infant mortality rate 2011
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Maldives
India
Pakistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
30 Afghanistan
39
10.5
9.2
47.2
59.2
42
36.7
72.7
0
20
40
60
80
9. 6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Maldives
India
Pakistan
Bangladesh
18
24
5.6
17.5
19.9
16.8
0
10
20
Infant mortality rate 2011
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Maldives
India
Pakistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
30 Afghanistan
(% of population)
(per 1,000 adults)
168.7
133.5
70.2
3.1
26.6
10.5
9.2
47.2
59.2
42
36.7
72.7
0
27.0
20
40
60
80
New Firm registrations per 1,000 people
Borrowers from commercial banks 2011
200
150
100
50
0
39
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Pakistan
India
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Afghanistan
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
0
1
2
3
4
10. 7. Low Levels of Inclusiveness
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Nepal
GINI
index
27.82
38.06
32.12
30.02
33.9
36.4
37.37
32.82
Income share held
by highest 10%
23.21
29.36
27.03
26.05
28.79
30.03
28.03
26.52
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Income share
held by lowest
10%
4.08
2.8
3.9
4.36
3.69
3.39
2.71
3.63
Poverty
headcount at
$2/day (% of
Population)
29.8
76.5
60.2
68.8
23.9
12.2
57.3
11. 8. Lacking Participatory Approach
CPIA gender equality rating 2012
(1=low to 6=high)
5
4
4
3
2
2
4
3.5
2.5
3
4.5
Voice and Accountability Index 2011
(1=low to 6=high)
4
1.0
0.5
0.0
1
-0.5
0
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
12. 9. Low Redistribution
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10.0 9.2
8.8
9.3
10.4 10.7
Average Budget Deficit 2006-10
12.4 13.2
2
0.4
0
-2
% of GDP
% of GDP
Tax Revenue in South Asia 2011
-4
-1.2
-1.3
-0.9
-3.3
-6
-5.1
-8
-7.2
-10
-12
-11.7
-14
Average Consumer Price Index 2006-12
% Growth
15
10
12.1
7.9
8.3
7.1
8.8
8.8
5
0
10.2 9.3
CPIA quality of budgetary management 2012
Rating (1=low to 6=high)
5
4
3
2
1
0
3.5
3.5
3
3.5
3.5
4
3
12
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2.5
13. 10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Efficiency of
customs clearance
process
2.33
2.29
2.33
2.77
2.85
2.24
2.58
2.20
Note: (1=low to 5=high)
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Quality of trade and
transport-related
infrastructure
2.0
2.3
2.49
2.87
2.69
2.47
2.5
1.87
Competence and
quality of logistics
services
2.16
2.42
2.44
3.14
2.77
2.68
2.8
2.12
14. Summarizing Underlying Growth Patterns
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
2. Unplanned Urbanization and Agglomeration
3. Rising Share of Traditional Services
4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
5. Disconnect with Sustainability
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
7. Low levels of Inclusiveness
8. Lack of Participatory Approach
9. Low Redistribution
10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
14
22. Lets Rethink South Asian Inclusive Growth
1. How will these game changers impact the mega
trends?
2. Can rural development be separated from
traditional structural transformation?
3. Can urban spaces become more inclusive?
4. Can we reinvent youth engagement?
22
Never once has services growth gone negative. In value terms we have more than double the size of this sector on the informal side. While we have agriculture policy, Industrial policy…where is the policy for services sector.
Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
Point 2 is about paying respect to services sectors. Empowering people through skills and then letting them realize their goals. Otherwise Detriot is an example of how engineered industrial development will one day collapse. While we have policies for agriculture and industrial sectors, where is the policy on services sub-sectors. In the 60s we said that agri works for me, in 70s-80s industry, in 1990s…services, in 2000s I said that even services are overheating. We are not thinking out of the box. Yesterdays thinking implies that we still wish to be a sweatshop. Ppl in SA want to send to english medium schools, sales boys instead of rotton factory workers…this is media playing on consumer preferences. Howcome New Zealand is able to do innovative livestock and SA sticks with primitive agriculture? Countries like Ireland/New Zealand want to remain rural…due to increased returns from being rural. One Point 3: thinking of urban spaces as centres for innovation and entrepresnuership….this is where we house over 50% of our GDP ie. Services sector..yet we have no respect for rental, zoning and building laws that stifled our urban domestic commerce. On point 4…can youth be given the role of demand side accountability…can they be empowered through youth committees?