Economic Growth & Human Development
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Economic Growth & Human Development

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Why is growth not transforming into human development?

Why is growth not transforming into human development?

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  • You have the paper
  • Never once has services growth gone negative. In value terms we have more than double the size of this sector on the informal side. While we have agriculture policy, Industrial policy…where is the policy for services sector.
  • Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
  • Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
  • Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
  • Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
  • Growth in South Asia remains a quantity and not quality game. Still we refuse to invest in human capital.
  • Point 2 is about paying respect to services sectors. Empowering people through skills and then letting them realize their goals. Otherwise Detriot is an example of how engineered industrial development will one day collapse. While we have policies for agriculture and industrial sectors, where is the policy on services sub-sectors. In the 60s we said that agri works for me, in 70s-80s industry, in 1990s…services, in 2000s I said that even services are overheating. We are not thinking out of the box. Yesterdays thinking implies that we still wish to be a sweatshop. Ppl in SA want to send to english medium schools, sales boys instead of rotton factory workers…this is media playing on consumer preferences. Howcome New Zealand is able to do innovative livestock and SA sticks with primitive agriculture? Countries like Ireland/New Zealand want to remain rural…due to increased returns from being rural. One Point 3: thinking of urban spaces as centres for innovation and entrepresnuership….this is where we house over 50% of our GDP ie. Services sector..yet we have no respect for rental, zoning and building laws that stifled our urban domestic commerce. On point 4…can youth be given the role of demand side accountability…can they be empowered through youth committees?

Economic Growth & Human Development Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Why is growth not transforming into human development? Consultation on the 2014 Human Development Report NUST, 30-31 October 2013
  • 2. Patterns Governing Intra-country Growth Disparities
  • 3. 1. Substantial Population Share of Youth Population and Youth in South Asia (2012) Country Afghanistan Bhutan Bangladesh Nepal Pakistan India Sri Lanka Maldives Population ages 15-64 (% of total) 50.3 66.8 64.7 59.4 61.3 65.4 66.6 66.0 Population ages 0-14 (% of total) 47.4 28.5 30.6 35.6 34.3 29.4 25.2 29.0 Source: World Development Indicators 2013
  • 4. 2. Fast Urbanization & Agglomeration Urbanization and Agglomeration in South Asia (2012) Country Afghanistan Bhutan Bangladesh Nepal Pakistan India Sri Lanka Maldives Urban population (% of total) Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million (% of total population) 23.9 36.3 28.9 17.3 36.5 31.7 15.2 42.2 Source: World Development Indicators 2013 10.7 14.9 19.2 12.7 -
  • 5. -15 Source: World Development Indicators 2013 4 2 0 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 2012 6 2012 8 2009 10 2009 Services, value added (annual % growth) 2006 -4 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 -10 1985 0 1982 12 10 1979 15 1976 Agriculture, value added (annual % growth) 1973 5 -2 1970 0 1967 2 1964 8 1961 4 Percentage 10 1967 2012 2009 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 6 Percentage 2012 2009 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 12 1964 -5 1964 1961 -2 1961 Percentage South Asia Real GDP Growth 1961 Percentage 3. Rising Share of Services Sector Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5
  • 6. 4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions CPIA public sector management and institutions rating (1=low to 6=high) 5 4 3 2 1 0 3.9 2.5 2.9 3 3.6 3.4 CPIA property rights and rule-based governance rating 2012 (1=low to 6=high) 3.4 3.5 4 3 3 3 2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3 2.5 1.5 1 0 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating 2012 (1=low to 6=high) Nepal 4.5 3.5 2 2.5 2.5 3 3 3 % of Total Firms 5 4 3 2 1 0 Firms competing against unregistered firms 2009 49.4 Sri Lanka 47.4 Pakistan 12.4 Bangladesh 46.6 Bhutan 19.9 Afghanistan 45 0 Source: World Development Indicators 2013 10 20 30 40 50 60
  • 7. 5. Disconnect with Sustainability 3.21 CO2 Emissions 3 2009 3 2 1972 1.66 2 0.95 1 1 0.60 0.23 0.62 0.34 0.13 Forest area (% of land area) 0 35 31 30 25 Percentage (metric tons per capita) 4 20 17 15 10 5 0 Source: World Development Indicators 2013 South Asia World
  • 8. 6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production Prevalence of undernourishment 2011 Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives India Pakistan Bangladesh 18 24 5.6 17.5 19.9 16.8 0 10 20 (% of population) Source: World Development Indicators 2013 Infant mortality rate 2011 Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives India Pakistan Bhutan Bangladesh 30 Afghanistan 39 10.5 9.2 47.2 59.2 42 36.7 72.7 0 20 40 60 80
  • 9. 6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production Prevalence of undernourishment 2011 Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives India Pakistan Bangladesh 18 24 5.6 17.5 19.9 16.8 0 10 20 Infant mortality rate 2011 Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives India Pakistan Bhutan Bangladesh 30 Afghanistan (% of population) (per 1,000 adults) 168.7 133.5 70.2 3.1 26.6 10.5 9.2 47.2 59.2 42 36.7 72.7 0 27.0 20 40 60 80 New Firm registrations per 1,000 people Borrowers from commercial banks 2011 200 150 100 50 0 39 Sri Lanka Maldives Pakistan India Bangladesh Bhutan Afghanistan Source: World Development Indicators 2013 0 1 2 3 4
  • 10. 7. Low Levels of Inclusiveness Afghanistan Bhutan Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Maldives Nepal GINI index 27.82 38.06 32.12 30.02 33.9 36.4 37.37 32.82 Income share held by highest 10% 23.21 29.36 27.03 26.05 28.79 30.03 28.03 26.52 Source: World Development Indicators 2013 Income share held by lowest 10% 4.08 2.8 3.9 4.36 3.69 3.39 2.71 3.63 Poverty headcount at $2/day (% of Population) 29.8 76.5 60.2 68.8 23.9 12.2 57.3
  • 11. 8. Lacking Participatory Approach CPIA gender equality rating 2012 (1=low to 6=high) 5 4 4 3 2 2 4 3.5 2.5 3 4.5 Voice and Accountability Index 2011 (1=low to 6=high) 4 1.0 0.5 0.0 1 -0.5 0 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Source: World Development Indicators 2013
  • 12. 9. Low Redistribution 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10.0 9.2 8.8 9.3 10.4 10.7 Average Budget Deficit 2006-10 12.4 13.2 2 0.4 0 -2 % of GDP % of GDP Tax Revenue in South Asia 2011 -4 -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 -3.3 -6 -5.1 -8 -7.2 -10 -12 -11.7 -14 Average Consumer Price Index 2006-12 % Growth 15 10 12.1 7.9 8.3 7.1 8.8 8.8 5 0 10.2 9.3 CPIA quality of budgetary management 2012 Rating (1=low to 6=high) 5 4 3 2 1 0 3.5 3.5 3 3.5 3.5 4 3 12 Source: World Development Indicators 2013 2.5
  • 13. 10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure Afghanistan Bhutan Bangladesh India Pakistan Maldives Sri Lanka Nepal Efficiency of customs clearance process 2.33 2.29 2.33 2.77 2.85 2.24 2.58 2.20 Note: (1=low to 5=high) Source: World Development Indicators 2013 Quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure 2.0 2.3 2.49 2.87 2.69 2.47 2.5 1.87 Competence and quality of logistics services 2.16 2.42 2.44 3.14 2.77 2.68 2.8 2.12
  • 14. Summarizing Underlying Growth Patterns 1. Substantial Population Share of Youth 2. Unplanned Urbanization and Agglomeration 3. Rising Share of Traditional Services 4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions 5. Disconnect with Sustainability 6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production 7. Low levels of Inclusiveness 8. Lack of Participatory Approach 9. Low Redistribution 10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure 14
  • 15. What Next for South Asia? 15
  • 16. Emerging Mega Trends 16
  • 17. 1. Empowerment Rising Middle Class Right to Information Act Emerging examples of individual empowerment Pro-poor legislation Independent Media Access to ICT 17
  • 18. 2. Demography Urban Class Diaspora Demographic Change Knowledge Spillovers Increased Mobility across Sectors Rising Internal Migration 18
  • 19. 3. New Power Centers Civil society Corporate Sector Superior Judiciary Power Centers Parliamenta ry Forces Media 19
  • 20. Game Changers 20
  • 21. Violent Conflicts Failure to Invest in Human Capital Game Changers Human & Man-made disasters Corruption & Transparenc y 21
  • 22. Lets Rethink South Asian Inclusive Growth 1. How will these game changers impact the mega trends? 2. Can rural development be separated from traditional structural transformation? 3. Can urban spaces become more inclusive? 4. Can we reinvent youth engagement? 22
  • 23. Thank You www.sdpi.org, www.sdpi.tv 23