Population explosion a threat to national security (case study of Pakistan)

1. Population explosion a threat to national
security (case study of Pakistan)

2. Group Members
Saba Ali
Nadia Bibi
Nighat Razaq
Farah Qureshi
Quaid-e-azam university

3. Presentation distribution
 Introduction by Farah Qureshi
 Population and Pakistan demographic dilemma by
Saba Ali
 How population leads to threat and Malthus's
theory by Nadia Bibi
 Causes ,effects and steps by Nighat Razaq
 Conclusion by Farah Qureshi

4. Population and National security
 Understanding population growth and other demographic trends is
crucial to national security, as population issues play a central role in
efforts to ensure national defense, avoid societal collapse, and meet
citizens’ basic needs.
 One danger affecting our national security is the world's
overpopulation.
 Population growth as one of three top destabilizing trends facing the
world.
 expert argue that there is a simple causal relationship between
demography and security, for example:
A total fertility rate of five children per woman
indicates that civil war will break out 20 years from
now, or that a country cannot remain stable unless
its age distribution resembles a bell curvedemographic trends can clearly interact with
poverty, poor governance, competition for natural
resources, and environmental degradation to
contribute to conflict.
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5853

5. According to the National Intelligence Council report:
“a key driver for the Middle East over the next 15
years will be demographic pressures, specially
how to provide jobs, housing, public services,
and subsidies for rapidly growing and
increasingly urban populations. By 2015, in
much of the middle east, populations will be
significantly larger, poorer, more urban and
more disillusioned.”
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1734&dat=20030315&id=FVUqAAAAIBAJ&sjid=JFMEAAAAIBAJ&pg=61
36,1356742
The Dispatch, Lexington, N.C. 15 March,2003.

6. • Direct threats
• Indirect threats

9. Pakistan's demographic dilemma
 Total population: 178.9 million people in 2012 from
45.9 million in 1960
 From 1960 until 2012: 102.8 Million
178.9 Million
(December 2012)
 In December 1960: record low of 45.9 Million
 2.56 percent of the world´s total population
39 people on the planet is a resident of Pakistan
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

10.  Pakistan launched one of the first population control
programs in the late 1950s
 World population increased from 3.6 billion to 7
billion(1970 and 2011).
http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/habitats/urbanthreats2/

11. According World Population Clock
 Current World Population: 7 billion
 Top 20 Largest Countries by Population
 Pakistan Rank 6
 Population 83,340,537 in 2013
 Population in the world is currently growing at a rate of around 1.14%
per year.
 United Nations estimates:
The human population of the world is
expected to reach 8 billion people in the
spring of 2024.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

12. Pakistan
country
Historical population Data per Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
141,55
3,800
144,
616,
600
147,6
63,40
0
150,6
94,7
00
159,1
96,3
00
162,4
20,00
0
165,
803,
600
164,7 172,8 176,2 184, 187,3 190,
41,9 00,0 42,9 404, 42,70 291,1
00
00
00
800 0
00
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=pk&v=21

13. Pakist Count
an
ry
Historical Unemployment rate (%)
Data per Year
199 199 20
8
9
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
201 201 201
0
1
2
6.0
7.8
8.2
8.2
7.6
7.6
6.2
5.3
5.2
5.4
5.5
6
6.8
5.9
7.6
http://world-economic-outlook.findthedata.org/l/4237/Pakistan

14. Key to HDI countries and ranks, 2012
 A country is efficiently using its income for
advancement in the two non income HDI dimensions.
 The non-income HDI is calculated to provide an
additional means of cross-country comparison and to
order countries by achievements in the non-income
dimensions.
 Pakistan 146
Human Development
Report 2013

15. Multidimensional Poverty Index(Estimates
based on surveys for 2007–2011)
Population in multidimensional poverty
Multidimensional
Poverty Index
Headcount
Population below income
poverty line
(%)
Intensity of
deprivation
Population
vulnerable
to poverty
Population
in severe
poverty
Contribution of
deprivation
to overall poverty
(%)
PPP
$1.25
a day
National
poverty
line
Year
Pakistan
Value
(%)
(th
ous
and
s)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Educ
atio
n
Health
Living
standar
ds
2002–
2011c
2002–
2012c
2006/
2007
(D)
0.264
d
49.4
d
81,2
36 d
53.4 d
11.0 d
27.4 d
30.8
37.9
31.2
21.0
22.3
Human Development
Report 2013

16. Population trends
Total
Annual
growth
Urban
Median
age
Total
depende
ncy ratio
Total
fertility
rate
Sex ratio
at birth
(millions)
(%)
(% of
total)
(years)
(per 100
people
ages 15–
64)
(births
per
woman)
(male to
female
births)
2012
Paki
stan
146
180.
0
2030
2000
/2005
2010/
2015a
,c
2000
2012
2000
2012
2000
2012
2000
2012
2000
2012
234.4
1.9
1.8
33.1
36.5
19.0
21.7
82.8
63.4
4.5
3.2
1.05
1.05

17. Population overview
Crude birth and death rate
30
25
20
crude birth rate
15
crude death rate
population(mln)
10
5
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Pakistan Economic Survey 2012-13
Source: National Institute of
Population Studies (NIPS)
Population Census Organizations

18. Urban and Rural Population (Millions)
Year
Urban Population
Rural Population
2008
58.74
107.67
2009
60.87
109.07
2010
63.05
110.46
2011
65.28
111.82
2012
67.55
113.16
2013
69.87
114.48
Source: Population Census
Organization, National
Institute of Population Studies(NIPS)

19.  ‘Large population is not a blessing but it is a curse for
the nation as well as for the country and its resources’
 No progress is possible without controlling population

20. Pakistan population is increasing and there is
a fear that in the near future it will creates
more problems because of the non serious
attitude of controlling population in our
country, among the married couples and lack
of awareness results in high population
growth rate.

21. Population
Unemployment
Emergence of Youth
issues
Economic
instability
Threat to
national security
Social
Problems
Poverty
Violence

22. Malthus Theories
He believed that only bad could come from population growth. Population he said
grows faster than food supply. This he said was because food supply can only
grow arithmetically.
Consequently, there is no way food supply can keep up with population growth.
Population grows exponentially,
for example, 1-2-4-8-16-32-64.
Food supply grows
arithmetically, for example, 1-23-4-5-6.
Therefore, population will
inevitably exceed food supply.
http://www.s-cool.co.uk/a-level/geography/population/revise-it/population-models

23. He said population could exceed food supply only to be
positively "checked" (reduced) by famine, war, and disease.
Population exceeds food
supply and is kept in check by
war, famine, or disease. It
then drops below the food
supply. As the population
recovers, so the cycle
continues.

24. Boserup offers a hopeful alternative to Malthus
Boserup argues that as the
population approaches the
limits of the food supply, that
food supply increases as new
technology improves yields.

25. CAUSES OF OVER POPULATION IN PAKISTAN












High birth rate
Polygamy (having more than one wife or husband at the same time)
Desire for male child
Early marriages
Lack of education
Low Per Capita Income
Unemployment
Afghan Refugees
Low Death Rate
Urbanization
Universality of Marriage
Absence of Other Activities

26. EFFECTS OF OVER POPULATION
 Poverty
 Unemployment
 Environmental problem
 Pressure on land
 Health problems
 Proper care of children's in limited resources
 Deviant behavior
 Increase in crime because lack of resources
 High Rate of Inflation

27. Solutions or steps
 Combat poverty by promoting economic development and job








creation.
This issue should be discussed at national and global level
Involve local community in local government..
need awareness and support
Media can play an important role
Control the Birth Rate
Health Centers
High Literacy Rate
Family Planning

28. Rabbi Royan, United Nations Population
Fund (UNFPA) chief in Pakistan said.
 'It is important that provincial and federal authorities demonstrate
their full commitment through sustained and prioritized allocation
of additional resources to family planning services and
commodities'
http://populationmatters.org/2012/newswatch/pakistan-invest-slow-population-growth
Pakistan must invest to slow population growth
November 17th 2012

29. CONCLUSION:
Over population is the threat for the stability and
strengthening of any nation. In the result inflation time
larger families are not a blessing but a curse. So steps
should be taken to aware the people that if the families
will be small than they can enjoy their lives with all the
facilities and the next coming generation will be healthy
and organized due to the proper attention of parents.
Education should be promoted in small villages and
town.

31. Links
 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/population
 http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/habitats/urban-threats2/
 http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1734&dat=20030315&id=FVUqAAAAIBAJ&sjid
=JFMEAAAAIBAJ&pg=6136,1356742
 http://www.s-cool.co.uk/a-level/geography/population/revise-it/population-models
 http://populationmatters.org/2012/newswatch/pakistan-invest-slow-population-growth