bonus demografi dan dampaknya

1. DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS AND IT’S
IMPACT ON ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT IN EAST JAVA
Dwi Budi Santosa

2. When does demographic bonus occur in East Java?
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Dependency Ratio in East Java, 1980-2035
East Java INDONESIA
window of opportunity
Source: BPS

3. Does demographic bonus benefit to economic
development in East Java?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Unemployment rate in East Java
East Java Indonesia

4. Actual acceleration of economic growth and
reducing poverty is less than its potential
acceleration
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Economic Growth
East Java Indonesia
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Poverty
East Java Indonesia

5. Bonus Demography still has benefit to economic
growth toward household consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(%)
Ratio of Household Consumption to GDP
Household non-food expenditure Household food expenditure
Househould Expenditure
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(%)
Ratio of Government Expenditure to GDP

6. Demographic bonus is not used optimally, the migration out is
still higher than migration in
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Thousands
Migration in East Java
Migration In Migration Out

7. The impact of demographic bonus on
population structure in East Java
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Million
Population in East Java Based on Age
Children (0-14) Working Age (15-65) Older Person (65+)
24.6 24.6 24.0 23.8 24.6 23.2
68.5 68.3 68.8 68.9 69.7 69.3
7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 5.7 7.5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percentage of Population in East Java Based on Age
Children (0-14) Working Age (15-65) Older Person (65+)

8. Demographic bonus in East Java lead to
studying more preferable than working
55 57
54
60 62
8 9 9 10 13
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6
0.03 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.02
6.8
7.3
7.0
7.8
7.7
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(%)
(%)
Ratio Number of Student to Working Age
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 Total

9. East Java government faces difficulty to provide
education facilities
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
School Participation Indek (APM) for
Primary School
INDONESIA East Java
70
75
80
85
90
95
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
School Participation Indek (APM) for
Junior High School
INDONESIA East Java
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
School Participation Indek (APM) for
Senior High School
INDONESIA East Java

10. CONCLUSION
• Demographic bonus in East Java has occurred in 2014.
• East Java Government Province has not yet optimized the
demographic gift.
• In the future, when migration out is higher than migration in, means
that productive labors will decrease, and potentially decelerate
economic growth.
• This implies that, the deceleration of economic growth is far more
worse if Government could not provide sufficient public services for
education, health, and ageing population.