Zeenia AhmedBS-09-24Department of Sociology (BZU)email@example.com
Demographic Indicators: A social concern is “an identifiable and definable aspiration or concern of fundamental and direct importance to human well-being”. Indicators may be material, such as numbers related to economic growth, and/or immaterial, such as values or goals. There are different Demographic Indicators, that usually involve in development of Human beings, their societies and countries as well..
Demographic Indicators: The major demographic indicators include: Fertility Mortality Migration Composition Of Population (age, gender, sex, marital status Skilled, unskilled population etc) Distribution Of Population Natural Increase
Fertility Rate: Definition & Concept “The ratio of live births in an area to the population of that area; expressed per 1000 population per year.” Mathematically, Births / population X 1000 Its also called Crude Birth rate or Natality.
Fertility Rate of 1st World Countries (Canada) The birth rate is usually the dominant factor in determining the rate of population growth. It depends on both the level of fertility and the age structure of the population. According to 2011 Survey, the birth rate of Canada is 10.28births/1000 population.
Fertility Rate Of Canada:Births /1000 population
Fertility Rate of 2nd World Country (China) According to recent statistical analysis of 2011 the fertility rate of China is 12.29(births/1000 population) In the past few years, China is suffering from a demographic problem of a different sort: too low a birth rate. That is the steep decline in the average annual population growth rate, down to 0.57% in 2000-10, half the rate of 1.07% in the previous decade. The data imply that the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the number of children a woman of child-bearing age can expect to have, on average, during her lifetime, may now be just 1.4, far below the “replacement rate” of 2.1, which eventually leads to the population stabilizing.
Causes Of Low Fertility Rate Among 1st &2nd World Countries: In Canada, children are considered expensive.• Women tend to lose 10 to 20% of their income in the 10 years following childbirth; they may not return to full-time work and often take less prestigious jobs than they had before their children were born. Mens wages are not affected.• Every body wants good standard of living, (including males and females)
Causes Of Low Fertility Rate Among 1st &2nd World Countries: So, more educated women may delay or avoid child-bearing if it will damage their economic future and opportunities. Mothers may also be less likely to be hired than non- mothers with the same résumé. "Kids are the new glass ceiling." Once a woman has established her career, she may find it too much of a disadvantage to step aside to have children
Effects of Low Fertility Rate:- Across Europe, birth rates are falling and family sizes are shrinking. low fertility is accelerating the ageing of European populations. Canada will soon be facing serious demographic issues that will threaten their standard of living. Elderly people face growing health care needs and costs. these developments could pose significant barriers to achieving the European Union (EU) goals of full employment, economic growth, and social cohesion.
Effects of Low Fertility Rate:- Its also called “Population Implosion”, this particular term is used when the population of any particular area implodes to itself. a shrinking workforce can reduce productivity. the growing proportion of elderly individuals threatens the solvency of pension and social insurance systems. As household sizes decrease, the ability to care for the elderly diminishes.
Fertility Rate Of 3rd world Countries (Pakistan) The sustained high fertility and rapid growth of population has made Pakistan the sixth most populous country in the world with a population of 145.5 million and will become the third most populous country by the year 2050. Declining mortality and sustained high fertility resulted in accelerated growth rates of population since the fifties. The particular term “Population Explosion” refers to the high fertility rate of 3rd world countries, when resources decrease and population increase.
From 2000-2011 the variations in birth rates ofCanada, China and Pakistan are respectivelygiven below:- :
Mortality Rate: Mortality rate is a measure of the number of Deaths in a population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1000 individuals per year. Mathematically: Total deaths / total population X 1000 It is also called crude death rate (CDR)
Mortality Rate of 1st, 2nd & 3rd worldCountries: The death rate, while only a rough indicator of the mortality situation in a country, accurately indicates the current mortality impact on population growth. This indicator is significantly affected by age distribution, and most countries will eventually show a rise in the overall death rate, in spite of continued decline in mortality at all ages, as declining fertility results in an aging population.
Comparison Mortality Rates of Canada,China and Pakistan, respectively…
Demographic Transition Theory: DTT was first given by Warren Thomson. He collected data (1908-1927). He classified the countries into three different Groups. Group 1 : Contains 1st world Countries (Europe, USA), [Birth increase, death Increase] Group 2 : contains 2nd world Countries (Italy, Spain), [birth increase, death decrease] Group 3 : contains rest of the world ( include all 3rd world countries), [Birth decrease, death decrease]Conclusion: Group 2 seems to be in good transition, while all 3rd world countries have no control over their population.
Graphical Representation Of Demographictransition theory
Population Growth Rate: The average annual percent change in the population, resulting from a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths and the balance of migrants entering and leaving a country. The rate may be positive or negative. The growth rate is a factor in determining how great a burden would be imposed on a country by the changing needs of its people for infrastructure (e.g., schools, hospitals, housing, roads), resources (e.g., food, water, electricity), and jobs. Rapid population growth can be seen as threatening by neighboring countries.
Population Growth: Comparison Of 1st ,2ndand 3rd world Countries
Migration: It’s the permanent change in residence, from one place to another with respect to political or administrative area. It involves the detachment from organization of activities at one place and the movement of the total round of activities to another. Migration rate is the difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year per 1,000 persons (based on midyear population).
Migration: Mathematically, net migration rate can be measured as: CNMR = total in-migrants – total out migrants / average total mid year population X 1000 In pre-modern world, rates of migration typically were fairly low, but in modern era, migration rate become high among youngsters, comparatively low in older age and children. There are different factors of Migration, that may include different push and pull factors.
Push-Pull Theory of Migration: The idea was first put forward by Raven Stein in 1889, who analyze migration in England using data from 1881 census of England and Wales. He concluded that pull factors were more important than push factors. For Example, If you lost your job, it could benefit you to move if there are no other jobs available where you live now. Some push & pull factors may include, primitive conditions, desertification, pollutions, death threats and better living conditions, security, enjoyment & security repectively.
Conclusions:- According to Malthus, population grows geometrically and resources grow arithmetically, So, with increase in population, resources decrease, labor force remains increase, their wages decrease, people work maximum to earn subsistence. Due to large number of consumers, resources become depleted, and hence lead towards Poverty. How to Avoid? Education must be increased Promote rationalization Poor laws must be abolished Birth control is necessary to limit family size, to limit burden on World Economy, and also in the context of health and medical care.