Chapter 9

Lecture Slides
AMERICAN
POLITICS TODAY
FIFTH EDITION
By
Bianco
Canon
Copyright © 2017, W. W. Norton & Company

AMERICAN POLITICS TODAY, FIFTH EDITION
American Politics Today
Chapter 9
Elections

Elections

American Elections: Functions
• Selecting representatives. Who holds office?
• Influencing policy. What should government do?
• Promoting accountability. Has my incumbent done a good
job?
– Retrospective evaluation: a voter’s judgment of an
officeholder’s job performance since the last election

Two Stages of American Elections
• Primary election: Which candidates get the party’s
nomination?
– Open primary
– Semi-closed primary
– Closed primary
• General election: Which of the nominees gets to holds
office?
– House of Representatives (two-year term)
– President (four-year term)
– Senate (six-year term)

Determining the Winner in
Congressional Elections
• Congressional districts are single-member districts
• Districts are geographically determined
– Senators represent entire states
– House candidates compete within congressional districts
• Winning requirements
– Plurality voting: getting the most votes
– Majority voting: getting over 50 percent of the votes
• Runoff elections: top two finishers in a head-to-head race

How Do American Elections Work?:
Ballots

Presidential Elections: The Nominating
Process
• Primaries and caucuses
• Winning convention
delegates
– Proportional Allocation
– Winner-take-all
– Superdelegates
• Front-loading
• The national convention
– Formally selects candidate
– Party platform

Electoral Votes and Swing States

Popular Voter versus Electoral Vote
Percentages, 2000-2016

Campaign Fundamentals
• Many factors affecting
elections are out of
candidate’s control
• Two have important
implications on
electoral outcome
– Economic
conditions
– Party ID

Stages in the Campaign
• Targeting specific seats
– Open seats
• Before the campaign
– Keep constituents happy
– Raise money for campaign
– Build and maintain campaign organization
• During the campaign
– Name recognition
– Voter mobilization: “get out the vote” (GOTV)

Campaign Platforms

Campaign Advertising

Campaign Advertising by Major
Spenders in 2016

Campaign Finance
• FEC: Federal Election Commission is in charge of
administering election laws.
• Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (BCRA),
also known as McCain-Feingold Act, outlawed soft
money and created a “stand by your ad” disclaimer
requirement
• Hard money: money to help elect or defeat specific
candidates
• Soft money: money used for mobilization and party
building
• Citizens United v. FEC changed campaign finance
rules by removing all restrictions on independent
efforts funded by corporations and unions

Campaign and Election Fund-Raising:
Contribution Limits

Campaign and Election Fund-Raising

Turnout in Voting

How Do People Vote?
• Some people are issue voters
• Most people use voting cues
– One’s partisanship (the single best predictor of one’s
vote)
– Incumbency
– Receiving help from a lawmaker
– Candidate’s personal traits (gender, race, age, religious
beliefs)
– Retrospective evaluations
• Cues work in concert with political information

Vote Decisions in Congressional Elections:
Candidate Cues

Who Wins?
• Normal elections
– High re-election rates of incumbents
– Independent evaluations of presidential and congressional
candidates
• Nationalized or wave elections
– Many voters vote against incumbents
– Focus typically on one issue

Issues and Voting in the 2016 Election

The 2016 Presidential Election

The Path to 2016: the 2012 and 2014
Elections
• 2012: Obama wins reelection
– Better organization helped President Obama defeat
Republican challenger Mitt Romney
• 2014: Republicans take over Senate
– National conditions strongly favored Republicans

The 2016 Elections: the Nomination
Process
• Donald Trump wins Republican nomination
– Prevails over crowded field of seventeen candidates
• Hillary Clinton wins Democratic nomination
– Faced strong competition from left-wing candidate Bernie
Sanders

The 2016 General Election
• Trump wins with strong rural turnout
– Trailed in polls for most of campaign
– Made significant gains among white voters
– Lost popular vote but prevailed in the Electoral College
• Clinton wins popular vote, loses in Electoral College
– Drop off in support among Democrats who had voted for
Obama

Consequences of 2016 Election
• Republicans control Executive and Legislative
branches
– Unified Republican government could reduce gridlock,
advance conservative agenda
– Similar policy constraints that Obama faced Trump will
also experience

Groups and Votes in the 2016
Presidential Election

How it works: in theory
Electoral Votes per State
The number of electors from each
state equals the state’s number
of House members (which varies
based on state population) plus the
number of senators (two per state).
Each elector has one vote in the
electoral college.
Winning a State
Most states give all of their electoral
college votes to the candidate who
wins the most votes in that state.
So, even if a candidate only gets 51
percent of the vote in the state, his or
her entire slate of electors is elected,
and he or she gets all of the state’s
votes in the electoral college.

Target the Rust Belt:
Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
These states have relatively weak economies and
few minority voters.
Hold off Growing Minority Populations:
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Colorado
Though Democrats hoped to win all these
states because of their high minority
populations, only Nevada and Colorado have
been swing states in recent elections, and
many people felt that Georgia and Arizona
had been trending toward Democrats.

Turnout in Presidential and Midterm
Elections, 1992–2016

Percent of House Incumbents Reelected

Public Opinion Poll: Q1
Which electoral system do you believe is best?
a. plurality system
b. proportional representation system

Do you believe it is appropriate to use race and ethnicity as
criteria for drawing legislative district boundaries?
a. yes
b. no

Do you believe the Democratic and Republican parties
should adopt a national primary to select their party’s
presidential nominees?
a. yes
b. no

Do you think appearances by presidential candidates on talk
shows contribute to a more informed electorate?
a. yes
b. no

Do you believe the Internet has made electoral campaigns
more democratic, has made them less democratic, or has
had no effect?
a. more democratic
b. less democratic
c. no effect

Do you believe American political campaigns help voters
make decisions, or do they produce more confusion than
enlightenment?
a. help voters make decisions
b. produce more confusion

Do you support or oppose laws requiring voters to produce
photo identification at the polls?
a. strongly oppose
b. oppose
c. support
d. strongly support

Do you believe there should be limits on the amount of
money candidates can spend on campaigns?
a. yes
b. no

Do you believe that voting should be made compulsory, with
fines for failing to vote?
a. yes
b. no

Do you believe there should be limits on the amount of
money individuals can contribute to campaigns?
a. yes
b. no

Additional Information
Following this slide, you will find additional slides with
photos, figures, and captions from the textbook.

Counting Florida’s Votes in 2000

Mitch McConnell

Constitutional Requirements for
Candidates

Congressional Elections: Crescent
Hardy

Voting for Primary Elections

Campaigns and the Media

Dan Benishek

Meeting with Constituents

Name Recognition: John McCain

Campaign Staff

Campaign Advertising: Anti-Hillary Ad

Campaign Advertising: Anti-Trump Ad

Campaign Contributions

Voting in Elections

Appealing to the Electorate

Donald Trump’s Supporters

Congressional Elections: David Jolly

Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton

Chapter 9

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to Chapter 9

Similar to Chapter 9 (20)

More from shoetzlein

More from shoetzlein (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Chapter 9

Editor's Notes