Dr. Dan Patterson presented a one-hour webinar on effective scheduling using metrics analysis. He reviewed some of the common problems found in schedules and the research that backs the claim that, in the end, the schedule drives project success.

1. building a sound schedule in an
enterprise environment using
schedule metric analysis
Dr Dan Patterson, PMP l CEO & Founder, Acumen

2. 2
Introductions
! Dr Dan Patterson PMP
! Founder, CEO Acumen
! 20 years project management software
! Risk/schedule thought leader
! Welcom, Pertmaster, Primavera, Acumen legacy
! Acumen
! Project analytics
! World-recognized risk workshops
! S1 > S5 schedule maturity
! Acumen Fuse project analysis tool
September 21,
2011

3. 3
Presentation Overview
! Importance of a sound basis of schedule
! The CPM schedule building blocks
! Introduction to metric analysis
! Industry standards
! Your metric toolkit: key metrics
! Scorecarding
! Metrics for execution & forensics
! Results from research on planning quality
! Q&A
September 21,
2011

4. 4
The Importance of a
Sound Basis of Schedule
• Schedule Basis
! A schedule is a • Reflects latest scope/contractor
S1 updates
forecast
• Critiqued Schedule
! Used as a benchmark • Structurally sound, no contingency,
S2 sound logic
against which to
measure performance • Risk-Adjusted Schedule
• Estimate uncertainty, risk events
S3
! Means of defining &
capturing scope • Optimized Target Scenarios
• Reduced hot spots, higher confidence
S4
! Means of
communicating the • Team Validated Scenario
• Buy-in on mitigation plans
plan to stakeholders S5
September 21,
2011

5. 5
Linking Scope to Work
! Schedule needs to Project • What are we building?
Objective • Criteria
reflect the work
needed to achieve Project • Performance
Scope • Cost, quality etc
the overarching
objective of the Project • List of ‘features’
Deliverables
project
• Breakdown of
! Separate deliverables WBS deliverables
from work
• Detailed work, durations,
Activities
! Start your plan with a sequencing etc
WBS…
Resources • Capacities, demands etc
September 21,
2011

6. 6
CPM Building Blocks
Project Defines start or finish of the job
Encapsulates the defined work
Scheduling tools are
an excellent means
Activities Defines duration for a given
scope of work of modeling these
Logic Links Defines sequence of work moving parts.
But…
Calendars Defines when an activity/
resource can work They do little for
Constraints Defines date overrides
making sure the
building blocks are
Resources Defines who/what is available to used correctly….
execute work
Resource Links the “executors” to their
Assignment work
September 21,
2011

7. 7
The Problem with Gantt Charts…
! Highly vertical in nature
! A row per activity required
! Humans like timelines!
! Logic adds complexity
! Difficult to trace
! Detail lost in summaries
! Just shows earliest/latest
! Activity-centric
! Doesn’t show by resource
September 21,
2011

8. 8
Introduction to Metric Analysis
! Definition: “Analytics leverage data in a particular functional
process to enable context-specific insight that is actionable”
! Objective means of determining schedule quality
! Analytics for a previously subjective science
! Analyzing output from schedule, cost, risk models
! Doesn’t replace need for a sound CPM tool
! Objective of pinpointing hotspots
! Shortcomings, issues, overruns, trends
! Thresholds measure acceptability
! Comparison against benchmarks/tripwires
! Trending over time
! Comparisons, performance improvements
September 21,
2011

9. 9
Metrics
! Metric definition
! “a measurement used to mathematically gauge a quantity”
! Metric Score
! Typically a count of activities
! Can be a summation e.g. cost
! Metric percentage
! Provides context e.g. within a set of activities
! Threshold or Tripwire
! Acceptable bandwidth relative to a given basis
September 21,
2011

10. Sli
de
10
Metric Examples

11. 11
Industry Standards
! Government agency (compliance)
! Government-wide
! Department of Defense (DoD)
! NDIA’s Generally Accepted Scheduling Principles
(GASP)
! Non-government specific (best practice)
! Project Management Institute (PMI)
! AACE International
! Thought leaders e.g. Acumen
! Company-specific
September 21,
2011

12. 12
Compliance Metrics
DCMA 14 Point GAO Scheduling Best Practices
1. Logic: identify how schedule is linked together 1. Capturing all activities: Schedule should reflect
all activities in WBS (government and contractor)
2. Leads: leads distorts total float in schedule
2. Sequencing all activities: Activities sequenced in
3. Lags: hides detail in schedule the logical order they are to be carried out
4. Relationship Types: Focus on Finish-to-Start (FS) 3. Assigning resources to all activities: reflect what
5. Hard Constraints: overrides natural CPM resources are needed to do the work
4. Establishing duration of all activities: realistically
6. High Float: network may not be logic-driven
reflect how long each activity will take
7. Negative Float: result of forced planning 5. Integrating schedule activities horizontally and
8. High Duration: lack of detail vertically: breadth & depth scope
6. Establishing critical path for all activities: driving
9. Invalid Dates: errors around the data date
path through schedule
10. Resources: verification that tasks have resources 7. Identifying float between activities: schedule
11. Missed Tasks: comparison to baseline flexibility can be determined
12. Critical Path Test: tests validity of driving path 8. Conducting schedule risk analysis: predict level
of confidence
13. Critical Path Length Index (CPLI): “realism”
9. Updating schedule using logic and durations to
14. Baseline Execution Index (BEI): performance determine the dates: realism
10. Creating a baseline schedule
September 21,
2011

13. 13
Sound Logic
! Use of FS, FF, SF, SS links
! SS links don’t account for durations
! Lags hide schedule detail redundant
! Leads cause reverse dates A
! Circular logic between projects
B
! Out of sequence updates
! Open start/finish: hidden open ends C
! Logic Density™
! Logic Hotspot™
! Redundancy Index™
September 21,
2011

14. 14
Logic Density™
! Great measure of complexity
! Dual-band threshold: 2 to 5…
! Determine Logic Hotspots™ in your schedule
September 21,
2011

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Redundancy Index™
! Overly complex, non-necessary logic
! Negatively impacts a schedule risk analysis
! Look for less than 15% redundancy in schedule
September 21,
2011

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Appropriate use of Constraints
! Understand the use of constraints
! Delivery dates?
! Look for open ends with constraints
! These are OK
! Understand float around constraints
! Float often artificially generated
! Avoid hard constraints
! They go against the whole premise of CPM!
September 21,
2011

17. 17
Calendars
! Appropriate use of calendars
! Use reasonable number of calendars
! Use reasonable level of detail
! Don’t use hourly calendar on a 3 year
construction project!
! Be careful about multiple calendars in
sequences of activities
! Logic links inherit either predecessor or
successor
September 21,
2011

18. 18
Durations & Level of Detail
! Durations define level of detail in schedule
! Ensure sufficient level of detail to:
! Track performance
! Publish status
! Collaborate the work with the project team
! Differentiate between critical/non critical
! Great indicator as to how risky a project is
September 21,
2011

19. 19
Float Analysis
! Average Float
! Maximum Float
! Float ratio (# of days float per day of work)
! Float Map™
September 21,
2011

20. 20
Visualization
! Means of grouping activities
! Against which we can apply metrics
! Means of quickly changing grouping
! Multiple dimension slice and dice
! Means of also slicing by time period
Ribbon Visualization
September 21,
2011

21. 21
Scorecarding
! Metrics are useful but don’t give overall picture
! Scorecarding: group individual metrics into single score
! Schedule Quality Index™
! Scores can be either
! Activity based: number of activities that fail a test (less detailed,
higher scores)
! Metric based: number of metrics that fail a test (more detailed,
lower scores)
! Weight importance of metrics
September 21,
2011

22. 22
Tracing Driving Logic
! Driving Logic trace shows key path(s)
! Based on:
! Forwards only view
! Backwards only view
! View between any two given activities
! Analyze the driving path through metrics
September 21,
2011

23. 23
Metrics for Execution
Baseline Compliance™
! Traditional measures include:
! Earned value: heavy time investment to implement
! Earned schedule: similar to EV
! % complete: what does this really tell us?
! Ahead/behind baseline: too granular a scale…
! Baseline Compliance™
! Used to determine how close a schedule is planned
and executed against it’s baseline
! Measure of well the plan is being executed
! More than just date comparison
! Looks at period-compliance
September 21,
2011

24. Compliance Scenarios

25. Compliance Metrics

26. Example
Baseline Compliance™ Analysis
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%

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Metrics for Risk Analysis
! Hidden critical paths
! Risk Hotspots
! Risk exposure over time
September 21,
2011

28. 28
Metrics for Schedule Forensics
! Compare multiple updates, iterations etc
! Means of pinpointing
! Changes e.g. duration, logic
! More importantly, should be:
! Insight into impact of changes e.g. float
! Scorecarding
! Use as means of showing improvements
September 21,
2011

29. Sound Planning Equals Project 29
Success…
100%
90% R² = 0.603
80%
70%
Finish Compliance Index™
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Schedule Quality Index™
September 21,
2011

30. 30
Conclusions
! Sound basis of schedule is “king” for all things project
management…
! Scheduling tools provide excellent framework for
developing CPM schedules
! Yet they do little to help guide scheduling maturity –
garbage in, garbage out…
! Metric analysis provides objective measurement
! Visualization is as important as the analysis
! Sound planning drives project success…
September 21,
2011

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More Information
Dr Dan Patterson PMP
!
! dpatterson@projectacumen.com
! Acumen Fuse Website
! www.projectacumen.com
September 21,
2011