1. Schedule Assessment and
Risk Analysis
Richard M. Greathouse
Lead Programmatic Analysis Group
Heidemarie S. Borchardt, PMP
Lead Schedule Analyst
Contributors: Kelley Cyr, Michele King, Kelly Moses,
Robin Smith
Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO)

2. Overview
• The schedule is a powerful tool for project
management. Schedule risk analysis:
 Identifies potential risks
 Identifies impacts of risks to project schedule
• IPAO has the opportunity to meet with many
programs and projects:
 Lessons Learned
 Future Plans
2

3. IPAO Forensics Analysis
Excerpt
Strengths:
• Risk management, budget, and schedule tend to gravitate to very few
(typically one) overall strengths for each program.
• Resources Other Than Budget received the fewest strengths.
Issues:
• Schedule issues were the most frequent issues identified and may be an
opportunity for improvement.
– Schedule issues may be caused by poor planning, poor schedule
(duration) estimates, or an overall lack of emphasis on good schedule
practices.
– Insufficient time may have been allowed to achieve Level I milestones,
perhaps complicated by insufficient funding.
IPAO Forensics Analysis performed by
Keith Burleson, 2008-2009; 2009-2010
3

4. IPAO Schedule Analysis Results
• IPAO schedule analysts typically have to amend the schedules in order to
be able to assess the schedule.
• Schedules received for assessment are typically not of good quality due to
poor scheduling practices.
 Missing predecessors and successors
 Containing constrained data
 Risks are not mapped to the schedule
 Lack of a true critical path
 Inappropriate use of lags/leads hides actual work being done which
does not allow the schedule to be properly loaded with resources
• NASA Schedule Management Handbook and NPR 7120.5D (NID), NM
7120-81, and NPR 7123.1
• Schedule management may be the area that presents the best
opportunity for improvement -- There are immediate actions we can
take to improve!
4

5. Improving Schedule
Management
• Schedule Health/Quality Check
• Schedule Analysis vs. Reporting
• Schedule Risk Analysis

6. Schedule Health/Quality Check
DCMA 14 Point Assessment
An Integrated
Baseline
Review (IBR)
will assess the
metrics outlined
in the DCMA 14
point
assessment.
The biggest
areas for
improvement
are in logic
and
constraints.

7. GAO Criteria
Government Accounting Office (GAO) Scheduling Best GAO audits many of
Practices the programs and
Metric Definition projects that IPAO
Scope of Work Capturing all Activities - WBS
assesses. It is
Logic Network Sequencing all activities – All activities have a predecessor
important to
and successor excepting the start and finish activity. understand and
Resource Loaded Schedule Assigning resources to all activities – labor, material, and adhere to their
overhead criteria.
Durations Establishing the duration of all activities – Basis of
Estimate to include resources
Schedule Integration Integrating schedule activities horizontally and vertically
GAO is in the process
Critical Path Method Establishing the critical path for all activities – Project
of developing a
master schedule and critical path are defined Schedule Estimating
Float/Slack Identifying reasonable float between activities – calculated Best
by schedule analysis Practices Guidebook –
Schedule Risk Conducting a schedule risk analysis Draft Release March
Statusing Updating the schedule using logic and durations to 2011
determine the dates – not constraints; Schedule analyzed
continuously to determine changes in critical path and GAO Cost Estimating and
variances Assessment Guide,
GAO-09-3SP
Baseline Schedule (new metric) Creating and managing a baseline schedule
7

8. Schedule Health/Quality Check
NASA STAT Tool
STAT is a NASA-developed
schedule integrity check tool
for MS Project-based
schedules that aids in the
development, assessment,
analysis and reporting of
project schedules.
Many NASA schedulers do
not seem to be aware of the
STAT tool. This analysis
should be performed as
part of the update cycle.
To get your copy of the STAT
software and a registration
form, please contact Ken
Poole, MSFC, at
Kenneth.W.Poole@nasa.gov
256.544.2419
8

9. Schedule Analysis
The schedule is an informative management tool. It
should be used for analysis as well as reporting actual
status.
• Critical Path Analysis
• Schedule Performance Trend Analysis
• Baseline vs. Current Comparison Analysis – Variance
• Resource Analysis
• What-if Analysis
• Earned Value Management (EVM) Analysis
• Schedule Margin Assessment
• Schedule Risk Analysis
• Joint Confidence Level (JCL) Analysis
Reference: NASA/SP-2010-33403
NASA Schedule Management Handbook
9

10. Critical Path Analysis
Many projects will report what the critical path is; however,
the reported path is not reflected in the project and in some
cases is a misrepresentation of the true critical path. It is
imperative that the critical path come from the IMS and that
it and the other merging paths are properly managed.
• Critical Path – “the sequence of schedule activities that determines the
duration of the project.” PMI
• Importance of C/P Analysis – helps determine which activities can impact
the project completion date (excludes LOE tasks). Understand schedule
drivers.
• The critical path needs to be monitored as it can change. Monitoring the
critical path will show the project manager where resources are required to
prevent schedule delays. Activities with higher slack values can be
postponed in order to work activities that must be completed.
10

11. Schedule Performance Trend
Analysis
Types of Analysis:
• Schedule Performance Work-off – compares baseline
dates against actual and forecasted dates
• Schedule Baseline vs. Actual Finish
• Schedule Performance Efficiency (Baseline Execution
Index)
• Projection of Actuals Based upon Schedule Performance
• Total Slack Trends
• Baseline vs. Current Comparison Analysis
 Schedule Milestones
Studies show that once a
 Schedule Variance Reports schedule slips more than 15%,
• Earned Value Management it cannot get back on track.
11

12. Resource Analysis
Resource loading of schedules is a tool to manage
resources effectively.
• Are the right people, material, and facilities available to do the
job when needed?
• Workforce planning is dependent on the project’s schedule -
Brooks’s Law.
• Most NASA schedules are resource and time constrained.
• Cost and schedule analysts review how the resources are
loaded or allocated in the IMS that supports the JCL
 Time dependent/variable (i.e. program management
staffing)
 Time independent/fixed (i.e. material costs, resources)
12

13. What-if Analysis
The schedule is a powerful management tool,
as well as, a reporting vehicle.
• Tool for assessing potential schedule problems and
mitigations.
• Used to plan for corrective actions.
13

14. Schedule Margin Assessment
Margin needs to be applied to critical path and high
risk activities.
• Margin – “a provision in the project management plan to mitigate
cost and/or schedule risk.” PMI
• Margin is not float/slack. Float/slack only appears on non-critical
paths; critical paths for NASA projects tend have 0; cost reserves
can be applied to both float/slack on a given path as well as
schedule margin on the critical path and it is important to know the
difference.
• Margin can be moved around the schedule as needed for high risk
activities – if this is not the case, for instance, if the time is allocated
to working a specific task/risk mitigation, it is no longer considered
margin.
• A probabilistic risk assessment is recommended as a basis for
determining required margins.
14

15. Schedule Risk Analysis
The schedule is a powerful tool for assessing
and mitigating risks. Project Manager, Risk
Manager and Scheduler work together to closely
monitor risks and schedule impacts.
• Map risk ID to schedule task that is affected by the risk.
• Determine if mitigation is required (mitigation tasks,
additional resources, use of schedule margin if on the
critical path)
15

16. Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA)
and Simulation - GAO
1. Does the schedule reflect all work to be completed?
2. Are the P/p critical dates used to plan the schedule?
3. Are the activities sequenced logically?
4. Are activity interdependencies identified and logical?
5. If there are constraints, lags, and lead times, are they required, and is
documentation available to justify the amounts?
6. How realistic are the schedule duration estimates?
7. How were resource estimates developed for each activity and will be the resources
be available when needed?
8. How accurate is the critical path and was it developed with scheduling software?
9. How reasonable are float estimates?
10. Can the schedule determine current status and provide reasonable completion date
forecasts?
11. What level of confidence is associated with the P/p schedule completion
date? Does it reflect a schedule risk analysis and the organization’s or
stakeholder’s risk tolerance?
GAO-09-3SP Appendix X

17. Project Inputs
Projects deliver products at SR-100. SRB members understand that
programmatic documents are works in progress.
• Documents (Requested of Project):
 Project Management Plan, Risk Management Plan, Schedule Management Plan
 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and WBS Dictionary
 Resources Plan (staffing, workforce, facilities)
 Project management status reports and EVM Data
• Best Practice Master Schedule / Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)
 Project runs NASA STAT health check and schedule should be green for delivery
 Identification of Critical Path and Schedule Margin/Reserve with basis
 Removal of constraints from schedule for purposes of performing SRA
 Provide basis for any constraints not removed from schedule
 Identification of risk mitigation activities in the schedule
 Qualitative uncertainty ratings by WBS (Ref. schedule risk consequence chart)
• Risk List
 Likelihood and Consequence Probabilities for Risks
 Mapping of Risks to Specific Schedule Activities
• Joint Confidence Level (JCL) and assumptions (if required)

18. Kickoff Initial
PAG Site
Meeting Review
Peer Review
with with
Review (SR)
SRB PAG
Receive Initial Receive
Programmatic Data Receive Updated Data Receive Final JCL Final Risk
Drop from P/p Drop form P/p (Final Model* and Updates
(Master Schedule & IMS Delivery and Initial Programmatic from P/p
Integrated Master JCL Model Delivery*) Updates from P/p
Schedule (IMS))
Due at SR-100 days Due at SR-60 days Due at SR-20 days Due at SR
Collect Initial SRB Risk Collect Updated SRB Collect Final SRB Risk
and Uncertainty Risk and Uncertainty and Uncertainty
Assessment Assessment Assessment
Apply Update Brief SRB on Updated
Draft IPA Plan and Perform Cost/Schedule Create Cost/Schedule Brief SRB on Initial
Updated Analysis Analysis
Methodology; Review Analysis and Work with Risk Model Analysis
SRB Risks per Peer
with PAG Lead; Get Project to Resolve
and Review Run Final SRB Risk
signatures from IPAO Issues, Identify Apply P/p Risks & Initial Begin Drafting IPA Uncertainty Updates and P/p Risk
Director, Review Uncertainty, and Map SRB Risks and Report Values to Updates in Model and
Manager, and PAG Risks Uncertainty Values to Continue
Model Provide Chair with
Lead Model Updating
Results
IPA Report
Communicate with the Create SRB
P/p Regarding IPA /IPA Inform PAG Lead of Any
Process The project timeline provides an Briefing and Updates to the Model
Review Programmatic Internal Results
Documents opportunity for the project to deliver Peer Review
Charts
a best-practices schedule to be Present Updated IPA
Review IMS and Work Continue Findings to the SRB
with P/P to resolve any used in performing the schedule Updating
quality issues IPA Report Complete IPA Report
risk assessment.
* Required if the P/p has a Joint
Confidence Level (JCL) Requirement

19. Schedule Risk Assessment
Output
The schedule risk assessment is a tool to mitigate
project risks:
 Schedule Health/Quality Assessment
 Critical Path Analysis
 Tornado chart depicting the impact of risks occurring
 S-Curve depicting the impact of risks on the schedule confidence level
 Risk Assessed Stochastic Critical Path
 Frontier Curve showing the schedule or schedule and cost confidence level (or
JCL if required)*
 Sensitivity Analysis (if needed) implemented to analyze the various risks to the
project by looking at all their potential impact on the overall goal

20. Future Plans
• Schedule Analysis Working Group
• Connect and Discover the NASA Planning & Scheduling
Community of Practice: To obtain access to the NASA P&S
CoP contact:
Jennifer Poston, Jennifer.L.Poston@nasa.gov (301) 286-7492
• Continuous improvement of IPAO Standard Operating
Procedure Instruction (SOPI) which contains cost, schedule,
and risk analysis processes.
• Supporting the development of 7120.5E
• Visiting NASA centers and providing overview of
programmatic assessment process.
 Ames – November 2010
• Consistency between reviews and across centers
20

21. References
• NASA Schedule Management Handbook, NASA/SP-
2010-3403, January 2010
• DOD Integrated Master Plan and Integrated Master
Schedule Preparation and Use Guide Version 0.9,
October 21, 2005
• GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, GAO-09-
3SP
21