The document discusses the implementation of range estimation in Scrum Agile to improve accuracy in project time estimation, highlighting the pitfalls of traditional single-point estimates. It emphasizes the significance of recognizing uncertainty and incorporating risk into project timelines, as well as the benefits of better communication through ranged estimates. Additionally, it addresses potential pitfalls of range estimation, such as credibility issues and the necessity of ensuring that stakeholders understand the value of these improved methods.

1. Building a more accurate burndown Using Range Estimation in Scrum Agile 2010 Conference August 2010 Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address]

2. Pitfalls of traditional estimation techniques

3. How long does it take you to get to work? traffic optimistic every day? method of travel

4. 68% http://www1.standishgroup.com/newsroom/chaos_2009.php

5. A little about me… Senior Consultant, OpenSource Connections in Charlottesville, Virginia Masters in Management of I.T., University of Virginia, McIntire School of Commerce We tweaked our Scrum process to incorporate Range Estimation based on my studies at Uva Please take the Estimation Survey: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/SWNNYQJ

6. The root of all estimation evil: Single point estimates Chart taken from: Software Estimation , Steve McConnell, Figure 1-1, p6 “ A single-point estimate is usually a target masquerading as an estimate.” -Steve McConnell

7. A realistic estimate distribution Chart taken from: Software Estimation , Steve McConnell, Figure 1-3, p8 “ There is a limit to how well a project can go but no limit to how many problems can occur.” -Steve McConnell Nominal Outcome (50/50 estimate)

8. Reasons we are wrong so often Different information Different methods Psychological Biases The Expert Problem

9. Bias in Estimation Imagine this scenario: “ Can you build me that CMS website in 2 weeks?” How would you respond? What estimate would you give?

10. Bias in Estimation By supplying my own estimate (or desire) in my question, I have anchored your response. This is called “The anchoring or framing trap” “ Because anchors can establish the terms on which a decision will be made, they are often used as a bargaining tactic by savvy negotiators.” From “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making” from Harvard Business Review, 1998, John Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa

11. You’re not as good as you think “ The Expert Problem” Experts consistently underestimate their margins of error, and discount the reasons they were wrong in the past. Excuses for past mistakes: You were playing a different game Invoke the outlier “ Almost right” defense The Black Swan: The impact of the Highly Improbable , by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007, Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction

12. The best protection “ The best protection against all psychological traps – in isolation or in combination – is awareness.” From “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making” from Harvard Business Review, 1998, John Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa

13. Agile estimation techniques

14. How agile already avoids pitfalls Encourages team airing of estimates Done before assignment of tasks Scrum poker

15. How agile already avoids pitfalls Separates story from time units, more relative Story Points & Velocity Image from: http://leadinganswers.typepad.com/leading_answers/2007/09/agile-exception.html

16. Agile and Scrum can run into other pitfalls though…

17. Potential pitfalls: Single-point estimates What about Risk? Implies a set delivery of features Story points are hard to explain

18. Better accuracy using range estimation

19. The Cone of Uncertainty http://www.construx.com/Page.aspx?hid=1648

20. Range estimation … Recognizes uncertainty Alleviates our tendency towards optimism Incorporates risk Allows for better financial projections Better informs our bosses and clients

21. Incorporating range estimation into Scrum

22. Incorporating range estimation into Scrum Team originally estimated 108 hours Range estimate went from 114-245 hours. Note the single point was a low estimate! They were able to finish original tasks a little early

23. Range estimation in Scrum Poker It’s very simple – just hold two cards instead of one! The same rules apply about creating discussion between low and high estimators, but you might resolve them differently...

24. On the high end Range estimation in Scrum Poker On the low end On the high end The likely discussion: Hey Orange, why do you say “2”? Yellow and Blue both say “5”. Likely Outcome: 3 or 5 Middle of the road

25. Range estimation in Scrum Poker Still middle of the road, but Green recognizes some risk Orange sees this as really easy Blue sees this as more complicated The likely discussion: Orange and Blue need to compare their visions for this task. Likely Outcome: 8-13? Red and Blue no longer agree: Red is confused or sees big risks

26. Using ranges in your task list

27. Using ranges in your task list Enter Low/High =(Lo*0.33)+(Hi*0.67) Sums of Lo, Hi, 2/3; then trend them to zero update daily

28. Using ranges in your burndown

29. Ranges help to highlight obstacles and know when to cancel an iteration

30. We were able to improve on the next iteration, but it was still hard

31. Ranges help reinforce obstacles Obstacle removed

32. Why 2/3? Because it is both simple and pessimistic PERT does a similar thing: Expected = [BestCase + (4*MostLikely) + WorstCase] / 6 Source on PERT: Software Estimation , Steve McConnell, p109

33. Using ranges to better communicate

34. Using range estimation to communicate risk Size of your range communicates the risk of your task May encourage you to break up tasks, or better define them. Scrum is all about better communication with the customer – so are ranges

35. How long? Um… 2 days 4 days Do you know your fudge factor? You Your Boss Big Boss

36. How long? 2-4 days 2-4 days Ranges help you control your fudge factor You Your Boss Big Boss

37. Another example: Use ranges to better empower your boss or client You Your Boss Big Boss

38. Perfect – Do it! How long? How much for X? GRRR Umm….. You Your Boss Big Boss 2 days Actually … 4 days 4 days later… 2 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days

39. Instead…. You Your Boss Big Boss

40. No thx, do something easier How long? How much for X? YES! You Your Boss Big Boss 2-4 days Done! 2 days later… 2-4 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days

41. Potential pitfalls of range estimation

42. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Really Wide Ranges Not everything can take 2 – 200 hours or you lose all credibility

43. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Bosses who don’t get it You’re going to have to sell them on how your estimates will improve their decision making ability.

44. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Pushed back deadlines Ranges are not an excuse to always miss deadlines. But they do make it less of a surprise, and encourage you to be more cautious.

45. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Is 2/3 the new single-point? Be careful not to just start treating the 2/3 calculated estimate, use the ranges.

46. Further Reading

47. Questions? Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address] Twitter.com/ArinSime