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Building a more accurate burndown   Using Range Estimation in Scrum Agile 2010 Conference August 2010 Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address]
Pitfalls of traditional estimation techniques
How long does it take you to get to work? traffic optimistic every day? method of travel
68% ,[object Object]
A little about me… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The root of all estimation evil:  Single point estimates ,[object Object],“ A single-point estimate is usually a target masquerading as an estimate.” -Steve McConnell
A realistic estimate distribution ,[object Object],“ There is a limit to how well a project can go but no limit to how many problems can occur.” -Steve McConnell Nominal Outcome (50/50 estimate)
Reasons we are wrong so often ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bias in Estimation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bias in Estimation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
You’re not as good as you think ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The best protection ,[object Object],[object Object]
Agile estimation techniques
How agile already avoids pitfalls ,[object Object],[object Object],Scrum poker
How agile already avoids pitfalls ,[object Object],Story Points & Velocity ,[object Object]
Agile and Scrum can run into other pitfalls though…
Potential pitfalls: Single-point estimates What about Risk? Implies a set delivery of features Story points are hard to explain
Better accuracy using range estimation
The Cone of Uncertainty ,[object Object]
Range estimation … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Incorporating range estimation into Scrum
Incorporating range estimation into Scrum ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Range estimation in Scrum Poker ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Range estimation in Scrum Poker On the low end On the high end The likely discussion: Hey Orange, why do you say “2”?  Yellow and Blue both say “5”. Likely Outcome:  3 or 5 Middle of the road
Range estimation in Scrum Poker Still middle of the road, but Green recognizes some risk Orange sees this as really easy  Blue sees this as more complicated The likely discussion: Orange and Blue need to compare their visions for this task. Likely Outcome:  8-13? Red and Blue no longer agree:  Red is confused or sees big risks
Using ranges in your task list
Using ranges in your task list Enter Low/High =(Lo*0.33)+(Hi*0.67) Sums of Lo, Hi, 2/3; then trend them to zero update daily
Using ranges in your burndown
Ranges help to highlight obstacles and know when to cancel an iteration
We were able to improve on the next iteration, but it was still hard
Ranges help reinforce obstacles Obstacle removed
Why 2/3? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Using ranges to better communicate
Using range estimation to communicate risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How long? Um… 2 days 4 days Do you know your fudge factor? You Your Boss Big Boss
How long? 2-4 days 2-4 days Ranges help you control your fudge factor You Your Boss Big Boss
Another example:  Use ranges to better empower your boss or client You Your Boss Big Boss
Perfect – Do it! How long? How much for X? GRRR Umm….. You Your Boss Big Boss 2 days Actually … 4 days 4 days later… 2 days * rate Budget Left:  2 days
Instead…. You Your Boss Big Boss
No thx, do something easier How long? How much for X? YES! You Your Boss Big Boss 2-4 days Done! 2 days later… 2-4 days * rate Budget Left:  2 days
Potential pitfalls of range estimation
Potential pitfalls of range estimation Really Wide Ranges Not everything can take  2 – 200 hours or you lose all credibility
Potential pitfalls of range estimation Bosses who don’t get it You’re going to have to sell them on how your estimates will improve their decision  making ability.
Potential pitfalls of range estimation Pushed back deadlines Ranges are not an excuse to always miss deadlines.  But they do make it less of a surprise, and encourage you to be more cautious.
Potential pitfalls of range estimation Is 2/3 the new single-point? Be careful not to just start treating the 2/3 calculated estimate, use the ranges.
Further Reading
Questions? Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address] Twitter.com/ArinSime

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Range estimation in Scrum

  • 1. Building a more accurate burndown Using Range Estimation in Scrum Agile 2010 Conference August 2010 Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address]
  • 2. Pitfalls of traditional estimation techniques
  • 3. How long does it take you to get to work? traffic optimistic every day? method of travel
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Agile and Scrum can run into other pitfalls though…
  • 17. Potential pitfalls: Single-point estimates What about Risk? Implies a set delivery of features Story points are hard to explain
  • 18. Better accuracy using range estimation
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. Range estimation in Scrum Poker Still middle of the road, but Green recognizes some risk Orange sees this as really easy Blue sees this as more complicated The likely discussion: Orange and Blue need to compare their visions for this task. Likely Outcome: 8-13? Red and Blue no longer agree: Red is confused or sees big risks
  • 26. Using ranges in your task list
  • 27. Using ranges in your task list Enter Low/High =(Lo*0.33)+(Hi*0.67) Sums of Lo, Hi, 2/3; then trend them to zero update daily
  • 28. Using ranges in your burndown
  • 29. Ranges help to highlight obstacles and know when to cancel an iteration
  • 30. We were able to improve on the next iteration, but it was still hard
  • 31. Ranges help reinforce obstacles Obstacle removed
  • 32.
  • 33. Using ranges to better communicate
  • 34.
  • 35. How long? Um… 2 days 4 days Do you know your fudge factor? You Your Boss Big Boss
  • 36. How long? 2-4 days 2-4 days Ranges help you control your fudge factor You Your Boss Big Boss
  • 37. Another example: Use ranges to better empower your boss or client You Your Boss Big Boss
  • 38. Perfect – Do it! How long? How much for X? GRRR Umm….. You Your Boss Big Boss 2 days Actually … 4 days 4 days later… 2 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days
  • 39. Instead…. You Your Boss Big Boss
  • 40. No thx, do something easier How long? How much for X? YES! You Your Boss Big Boss 2-4 days Done! 2 days later… 2-4 days * rate Budget Left: 2 days
  • 41. Potential pitfalls of range estimation
  • 42. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Really Wide Ranges Not everything can take 2 – 200 hours or you lose all credibility
  • 43. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Bosses who don’t get it You’re going to have to sell them on how your estimates will improve their decision making ability.
  • 44. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Pushed back deadlines Ranges are not an excuse to always miss deadlines. But they do make it less of a surprise, and encourage you to be more cautious.
  • 45. Potential pitfalls of range estimation Is 2/3 the new single-point? Be careful not to just start treating the 2/3 calculated estimate, use the ranges.
  • 47. Questions? Arin Sime 434 996 5226 [email_address] Twitter.com/ArinSime

Editor's Notes

  1. how long does it take you to drive to work? Is that everyday? Traffic? Optimistic?
  2. Show single point then double point
  3. Yellow doesn’t know what they’re talking about.