This document discusses agile estimation and planning techniques. It recommends estimating tasks relatively using story points rather than absolute time estimates. Planning poker, where teams privately estimate tasks and then discuss estimates, is presented as an effective technique. Prioritizing a backlog by value, risk, and estimate allows teams to focus on the most important work. Iterative planning within sprints and tracking progress via burn down charts increases transparency.

1. Agile estimation and planning Elad Sofer - Agile coach. blog - http:// blog.thescrumster.com LinkedIn - http://www.linkedin.com/in/eladsofer

3. Reduce risk Reduce uncertainty Better decision making Establishing trust campaigns (marketing)

4. How to estimate this task ?

5. Persistence of time

6. How long will it take to… Read the bible Drive to Paris ? Solve a math equation ? Add support for LDAP ?

7. 34.4

8. Estimate tasks in relative size We are not good in measuring absolute values. We are good in comparing things. We have the basic math skills (or a calculator). High accuracy has a high toll. Estimates become commitments Time is not persistent.

9. Story points Name is derived from user stories. They reflect the “bigness” of a user story. How hard it is ? How risky it is ? How much of it there is ? Relative values matters. Unitless. Point values “include uncertainty”. Easy and quick A little effort helps a lot A lot of effort helps a little more

10. Estimation techniques Expert opinion Analogy Educated guess Disaggregating Planning poker

11. Planning poker Each person gets a deck of cards. The item to be estimated is read to all. Attendants ask clarifications for the item. Each person selects a card and puts it on the table facing down. When everyone is done, cards are exposed. If the estimations do not match a short discussion is done. -> Goto 4. Handle next item.

12. Why planning poker works ? Those who do the work estimate it. Emphasizes relative estimation Estimates are within one order of magnitude. Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.

13. Specification length One page spec Group A 7 Pages spec Group B 173 hours 117 hours

14. Irrelevant information Group A added irrelevant details: End user desktop apps Usernames & passwords Etc. Group B 39 hours 20 hours

15. Extra requirements Requirements 1-4 Group A Requirements 1-5 Group B 4 hours 4 hours Requirements 1-5 but told to estimate 1-4 only Group C 8 hours

16. Given anchor Group A Customer thinks 500 customer has no technical knowledge Don’t let the customer influence you Group B 555 hours 456 hours Same as B customer thinks 50 Group C 99 hours

17. Why planning poker works ? Those who do the work estimate it. Emphasizes relative estimation Estimates are within one order of magnitude. Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard. Modeled for open discussion – forces thinking. It’s quick & fun !

19. Much Work Remains to be Done before we can announce Our Total Failure to Make any progress

20. Why traditional planning fails Plan is not adaptive. Focus on activities – Not on features Never finish early. Lateness is passed down. Dependencies. Plan is not priority driven. Higher risk. Lower ROI. Belief that customers will not change Estimates become commitments.

21. What makes planning agile ? Planning Is not considered as a phase in the project Focus on business priorities Deliver something each iteration. Changes are expected, embrace change. Plans are easily correctable. Plan by feature not by activity. Clear definition of progress 50% = 50% of features complete. And…

22. “ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [

23. Continuous planning Daily Iteration Release Product Portfolio Strategy

24. First, We need a backlog As a user I want to perform stock operations. As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. As a manager I want balance report As a user I want to see last transactions. As a user I want to see my balance As a user I want to log in securely. … Risk Estimate Value Story

25. Add value 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. 60 As a manager I want balance report 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. 100 As a user I want to see my balance 10 As a user I want to log in securely. … Risk Estimate Value Story

26. Estimate & asses risk HIGH BIG 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. Low 13 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. Medium BIG 60 As a manager I want balance report Medium 20 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. Low 8 100 As a user I want to see my balance Low 5 10 As a user I want to log in securely. … Risk Estimate Value Story

27. Prioritization guidelines

28. Now it is prioritized – We are ready Low 8 100 As a user I want to see my balance Low 5 10 As a user I want to log in securely. Medium BIG 60 As a manager I want balance report Low 13 80 As a manager I want a report of customer with overdraft. HIGH BIG 30 As a user I want to perform stock operations. Medium 20 70 As a user I want to see last transactions. … Risk Estimate Value Story

29. Sprinting… Before the sprint: The team committed to the following: As a user I want to see my balance As a user I want to see last transactions. Creates the sprint backlog: They break it down into tasks. They estimate the time for each task.

30. Tracking progress (day 1) To Do In work Done

31. Tracking progress (day 3) To Do In work Done

32. Tracking progress (day 6) To Do In work Done

33. Tracking progress (End) To Do In work Done

34. When the Sprint has finished: We now know the current velocity. Only DONE items count. We can now start and “realistically” estimate the expected progress.

35. Velocity How many points can the team(s) complete in one iteration. Easy to measure. Fixes estimation errors. Easily reflects the project status. Primary parameter in planning.

36. How to calculate time ? D V T

37. Burn down charts Increase visibility Easy to understand. Updated automatically & immediately. Usually used on release & sprint level.

38. So what will it be ? vs + +

40. For more information: Read this book  And visit my blog