Pakistan Flood Control System


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Pakistan Flood Control System

  1. 1. Pakistan Flood Control System (PFCS) Flood control and water storage solution for Pakistan By: Syed Inam ul Rehman Email : Publish Date: 19/11/2010 Last Updated: 17/09/2011
  2. 2. Pakistan Flood Control System (PFCS)• PFCS is a Flood control system, designed for Pakistan, that offers control for extreme floods in Indus Basin.• It contains a system of five dams for flood control(Soan, Rohtas, Khyber, Bhit and Nari Bolan) and three canals. (Soan Link Canal, Grand Indus canal and optional Makran Canal)• Soan Dam is the core of PFCS. Other dams will help, but Soan Dam alone can successfully handle floods like 2010.• Soan Dam sets foundation for radical changes in Pakistan’s flood control and irrigation paradigm by allowing distributed system of large local multipurpose projects. Dynamic allocation of water and coordinated flood harvesting are some of other main features.• Proposed dams increase water storage capacity of Pakistan by 644%. Apart from total flood control, PFCS will play a role of “Water Bank of Pakistan”, to ensure right amount of water at right time for all provinces, according to already defined respective water share.• PFCS will successfully block India’s move of internationalizing the flood water wastage in Pakistan for propaganda and grabbing more of Pakistan’s water.
  3. 3. Pakistan Flood Control System (PFCS)• Proposed system can be built in stages but it is economical enough to be built simultaneously. Proposed dams don’t need spillways due to their role, location and sizes. Pakistan has most of necessary skills and material to build it alone.• Additional power infrastructure can make this system much more profitable by producing more electricity than WAPDA’s existing hydroelectric capacity of 6444 MW.• PFCS is designed around historical peak floods in country with 50%+ safety factor.• Avoiding any urban settlement and thickly populated areas is one of its main design consideration.• Economic feasibility: 8+ times larger yet cheaper than existing options. System will breakeven within first monsoon month of operation. Operating at 40% capacity, PFCS will add US$ 70+ billion annually to the national economy.• “New Deal”?• Strategic and geopolitical impact.• Last but not least, PFCS doesn’t need the Kalabagh dam. Instead it addresses Kalabagh dam’s potential drawbacks positively due to effective flood control in all four provinces, lack of water diversion and decentralization of Water & Power storage.
  4. 4. Storage Economy(MAF/Billion US$)76543210 Diamer basha dam Kalabagh Dam Akhori Dam Bhit Dam Soan Dam
  5. 5. Comparison with existing capacity Storage Capacity Comparison(MAF)4035302520151050 Diamer basha dam Kalabagh Dam Akhori Dam Bhit Dam Soan Dam
  6. 6. How this presentation is different?• Problem of lack of flood control, and storage reservoirs in Pakistan is not a news.• Pakistan has experienced massive direct devastation in form of floods, and indirectly in form of inflation, high food prices and instability in society.• This presentation is different because “it discusses the solution.”
  7. 7. Scope of presentation• This document is the “presentation version of PFCS 2.0 design”.• Version 2.0 includes upgrades about flood control and irrigation based upon version 1.0 design of November 2010.• Contains details of Topographical feasibility math, supporting hydrology calculations and design overview.• Detail design including detailed hydrological efficiency, reservoir bed rock analysis, design considerations, load conditions, stability requirements, stress analysis, seismic analysis, structural features, environmental study and archeological impact needs detail study, which falls in the scope of feasibility study.
  8. 8. Upgrades in PFCS version 2.0• 19.3 MAF additional capacity and collection of extra water from Indus river right bank tributaries.• "Devolution of water and power" among provinces. high level Grand Indus Canal will deliver water and its hydroelectric potential to respective provinces.• Sindh and Balochistan get much needed large local reservoirs. This will decrease uncertainty of river flow fluctuations and canal response time.• 22.23 million acres of possible increase in Irrigation system.• Water security for Karachi, the financial and industrial hub of Pakistan.• fresh water for Kirthar national park ecosystem and Manchar lake.• Water security for Makran coast. Makran can become "California of Pakistan" being the only coastal area around gulf with sustainable water supply for whole 500 miles stretch.• Balochistan will be able to use its share of water including flood water for sustainable and efficient irrigation in Makran region.• Grand Indus canal can act as a "Water Motorway of Pakistan", for efficient and quick delivery of water all along Pakistan downstream Tarbela. In addition it will help about efficient water transfer from one location to another within provinces.
  9. 9. Upgrades in PFCS version 2.0• Grand Indus canal @ 50,000 cusecs can add 10 MAF to the effective storage of Soan dam. it will cut cost of Soan dam for same design storage.• option of "alternate route" for Indus river will improve the situation of water logging and soil salinity in Indus Basin.• Grand Indus canal offers potential for channel navigation, however this role needs to be evaluated for necessary adjustments in initial design.• Enhanced control over river flow will decrease land erosion along Indus river during normal flow and floods.• optional branching channel just upstream Guddu barrage will provide a shortcut for flexibility of water usage in Sindh.• Interlinked chain of under construction and proposed optimal sized dams can provide better water management for whole country.• Most of Pakistani cities are located along river banks and their ever increasing waste water and raw sewage is released back into rivers without treatment. this phenomenon causes serious health problems for lower Punjab and Sindh. proposed design will assure high quality water availability for southern Pakistan.• Proposed large dam in Sindh can decrease brackishness of underground water on right bank of River Indus. detail study needs to determine the optimal design for best possible effect.
  10. 10. 2010 Floods in PakistanRiver Indus is the soul of the Indus valley, today’s Pakistan.Lives of 180+ million people depend upon water of Indus river and its tributaries.65-70% of Indus water flows during summer Monsoon, and in absence of a flood control system, Indus river can be dangerous during this time of year.In July and August 2010, Indus basin saw extremely high level of floods due to extra-ordinary monsoon spells.Following are some public numbers about flood damage till November 2010.• Fatalities: 1,974• Population affected: 20,184,550• Cropped Areas underwater: 5,546,636 Acres• District Affected: 78• Damage estimates: official: $9.7 Billion, Unofficial: $43+ Billion, Reconstruction cost: 50+ Billions
  11. 11. Flood Map
  12. 12. Indus River Hydrograph during 2010 flood(cusecs)
  13. 13. Kabul River Hydrograph during 2010 flood
  14. 14. Jhelum River Hydrograph during 2010 flood
  15. 15. Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej
  16. 16. Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej
  17. 17. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  18. 18. Between Kalabagh and Taunsa(July 31st, 2010)
  19. 19. Between Kalabagh and Taunsa(Aug 1st, 2010)
  20. 20. Indus river normal flow (Aug-9-2009)
  21. 21. Indus river during flood (Aug-12-2010)
  22. 22. A closer look at Mithan Kot
  23. 23. A closer look at Guddu Barrage(Aug-12-2010)
  24. 24. Northern Sindh province with normal Flow
  25. 25. On August 11th 2010
  26. 26. October 12th 2010
  27. 27. Scale of 2010 flood: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  28. 28. Scale of 2010 flood: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  29. 29. Scale of 2010 flood: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  30. 30. Scale of 2010 flood: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  31. 31. Scale of 2010 flood: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  32. 32. Scale of 2010 flood: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
  33. 33. Scale of 2010 flood: Azad kashmir
  34. 34. Scale of 2010 flood: Gilgit Baltistan
  35. 35. Scale of 2010 flood: Punjab
  36. 36. Scale of 2010 flood: Punjab
  37. 37. Scale of 2010 flood: Punjab
  38. 38. Scale of 2010 flood: Balochistan
  39. 39. Scale of 2010 flood: Balochistan
  40. 40. Scale of 2010 flood: Sindh
  41. 41. Scale of 2010 flood: Sindh
  42. 42. Scale of 2010 flood: Sindh
  43. 43. Scale of 2010 flood: Sindh
  44. 44. True, and God helps those, who help themselves
  45. 45. Facts and Figures of 2010 flood• 55.26 MAF (Equal to 8 full Tarbela lakes) of water passed through Kotri barrage into Arabian sea between July 13th and October 4th 2010• 72.87 MAF water passed through Guddu Barrage during the same time(adjusted).• Below Guddu, 17.61 MAF Indus flood water didn’t reach the sea, submerging big areas in Sindh and Balochistan for next several months. (excluding Guddu downstream right bank tributaries flood runoff)• 73.35 MAF water passed through Taunsa and Panjnad together.• Stagnant water in Punjab cannot be accurately calculated due to unregulated right bank flood streams of Suleiman range.• 3.2 MAF of accounted water stayed in Punjab. an equivalent of all right bank catchment from Chashma to Guddu including Tochi, Zhob, Gomal, Tank, Vehowa and the Zams stayed in Punjab and lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.• Total water loss during 2010 summer estimates about 85 MAF, equal to winter storage for next 8 years at current capacity.
  46. 46. Flood control in Pakistan• Pakistan doesn’t have a flood control system due to lack of storage capacity and absence of known practical options.• Existing dams and proposed Kalabagh dam is too small to handle the amount of inflow in 2010 flood.• Kalabagh could have stored only 7.5% of total water but not without upstream damage in Nowshera and above.• In future, due to global warming, region expects increased frequency and intensity of flash floods coupled with higher glacier melt runoff. Proposed theory of Redistribution precipitation (Seasonal Shift) link increases the need of a serious solution for flood control.• In absence of a comprehensive plan, such floods can hit the backbone of country’s economy after ever few years.• This was not the last flood. Floods will certainly happen again, in a year, or a decade, or later. No one can say it will never happen again.• By taking solid steps, Pakistan can change such disasters into a blessing by saving $30-50 billions of flood damage per decade, and earning much bigger amount by increased agricultural productivity, extra power generation and food security
  47. 47. What can be controlled?• Eastern rivers (Ravi and Sutlej) are controlled by India. Pakistan doesn’t have suitable topography to handle floods in these rivers. Although huge flood canals can be built to divert a portion of flood water into Cholistan desert to recharge underground aquifers and tobas (ponds) for later use.• Chenab is a special case. India cannot control it due to lack of rights, and Pakistan doesn’t have a suitable site to control it along its length in Pakistan. It is similar to Indian situation about Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra River) in Arunachal Pradesh where India doesn’t have a suitable site to control the 17 times bigger river(by annual average flow rate), yet it doesn’t want China to build any reservoir or ROR power project.• In presence of Kashmir conflict, there is no short term solution for Chenab flooding. Proposed Chiniot dam in Punjab (1MAF) can help, but it is too small for super floods.• Kabul, Jhelum and Indus rivers contribute 83% of Pakistan’s share of Indus system water.• We will focus on these three rivers, and will discuss the possible options to avoid future floods, while using flood water for agriculture and power generation.• West Side Tributaries of Indus from Tarbela to Arabian sea carry a significant amount of non perennial flood water. Linking of ongoing and future Medium and small dams(Kurram Tangi, Gomal Zam, Tank Zam, Baran dam etc) along western slopes can control and harvest flash floods.
  48. 48. This wasn’t the biggest flood• 2010 flood wasn’t the biggest for all Pakistani rivers. Jhelum (at Mangla) saw 10,90,000 cusecs on Sept 10th 1992 as compared to 2,67,000 cusecs peak on July 31st 2010.• Chenab’s (Marala) maximum for 2010 was 2,16,000. 26 August 1957 flood at Marala was 11,00,000 followed by 8,70,795 on 5/7/1959 and 8,45,090 on August 28th 1992.• Ravi’s (Jassar)2010 peak was 21,000 vs 6,80,000 in 1955. flood of 1988 overflew at Jassar, with a record of 5,76,000 at Shahdara downstream.• Sutlej stayed around 53,000 in 2010, in contrast to 5,98,872 in 1955 and 3,99,453 in 1988• We are not ready for any such record flood.• In future, as Pakistani population and cities grow, the damage will grow for same intensity of floods.
  49. 49. Past 10 Floods through Kotri• 1976: 64 MAF• 1983: 43.8 MAF• 1988 :44.7 MAF• 1991: 42.0 MAF• 1992: 69.19 MAF• 1994: 81. 21 MAF• 1995: 61. 09 MAF• 2005: 24.5 MAF• 2007: 15.82 MAF• 2010: 55.8 MAF (excludes 33-35 MAF stagnant water)• Total 535 MAF, worth 1.07 Trillion US dollars. Historical Kotri downstream flow averages 35.2 MAF (1976-2006 WRMD WAPDA). While excluding 10 MAF for Indus delta, average 25.2 MAF water is available for harvest annually. PFCS 2.0 design will save water course loss from Tarbela to Guddu or Kotri. 40% reduction means 14 MAF extra water per year. It will also reduce risk of illegal water theft and evaporation losses.
  50. 50. Jhelum flood comparison, 1992, 1997, 20101000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Mangla_outflow_92 Mangla_Outflow_1997 Mangla_outflow_2010
  51. 51. Chenab flood comparison1992,1997,2010900000800000700000600000500000400000300000200000100000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Marala_outflow_1992 Marala_outflow_1997 Marala_wave1_2010 Marala_wave2_2010
  52. 52. Flood control on Indus river• Tarbela Dam is the only storage available on Indus river so far.• However, in future, Tarbela and Diamer Basha Dam (2010-2018) together, will be able to store 14.2 MAF out of total 65 MAF annual runoff below Tarbela.• Still 50.8 MAF in an average year, and up to twice amount of water in high flood years will stay uncontrolled.• Both of these dams are designed mainly for storage. They can help towards flood control, but they may not always be ready for a mega flood.• More available options include Akhori dam and Kalabagh dam. If ever built, these two dams can improve the storage capacity to 26 MAF, thus improving flood control capacity while increasing Rabi water availability in Pakistan by 32%.• Next few pages talk about Kalabagh and Akhori Dams.
  53. 53. Kalabagh Dam• Height: 79 m (259 ft) , Live storage: 6.1 MAF• Indus river at Kalabagh has an average annual flow of 95 MAF. Kalabagh dam can store only 5.8% of total annual water. It cannot control a flood like 2010 flood, although it could have trimmed the maximum spike by top 200000 to 300000 cusecs off the first wave only, like Tarbela.• Table below shows summer runoff at Kalabagh during last three years. Month Flow(MAF) in 2008 Flow(MAF) in 2009 Flow(MAF) in 2010 April 4.41 4.05 3.67 May 8.11 7.65 7.30 June 11.49 13.18 11.58 July 18.02 18.13 22.05 Aug 16.84 15.96 29.40 Sept 6.43 7.45 9.72 Total 65.30 66.42 83.72
  54. 54. Kalabagh Dam issuesKalabagh dam is controversial due to multiple reasons.• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Balochistan have already rejected it.• Kabul river above Nowshera has no flood control at all. In absence of another upstream dam like proposed Khyber Dam, Kalabagh dam will be a disaster for Peshawar valley.• Indus floods add to the magnitude of Kabul river floods by blocking their way. Proposed Soan dam (discussed later), will address this concern, by sparing entire Indus bed between Tarbela and Kalabagh to drain the Kabul river in case of extreme floods.• Kalabagh dam’s revised reservoir level of 915 feet, still stagnates Kabul river upstream of Akora khattak. (initial design height was 925 ft above sea level)• More research is required to address water logging, lake size and flow route issues. A practical Kalabagh dam may be another 25-40 ft below the current design of 915 ft. which will reduce its live capacity to less than 4 MAF.
  55. 55. Akhori Dam project• Akhori Dam is a 6.0 MAF off channel storage project. Its proposed 400 ft high 5 KM long main dam and (7 km long saddle dam) makes its construction much bigger than Tarbela.• With option of 7-8 times larger design capacity of Soan reservoir, Pakistan my not need Akhori dam, and same resources can be used to build Rohtas and Khyber dam.• World Bank team carried out inspection of Akhori and Sanjwal dam locations in 1968 . Team head Dr Lieftnick in his report, rejected Akhori Dam for a height of 250 ft due to foundation problems,.• A 400 ft high design at same site, may become too expensive.
  56. 56. Flood control on Jhelum River• Mangla Dam stores about 4 MAF of water, but being the single storage dam on Jhelum, it is not flexible enough to handle additional flood water especially in late summer. Most major floods hit Mangla when it is already full.• Pakistan has minimal control on flooding in Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej. A flood in Jhelum river, coupled with flood in these three rivers can be very dangerous (like in 1992).• PFCS suggests “Rohtas Dam” with 9 MAF storage to handle super floods up to twice the size of 1992 flood of Jhelum.• Available storage limit is huge, and it can balance Chenab flow during high flow season and large floods.• Location of Rohtas dam can offer a lake up to 16 MAF size, and southern Bunhar river valley can make another 9 MAF lake, but such big reservoirs are not needed.• Next few slides show the amount of water to handle. Please note that Jhelum and Chenab usually flood simultaneously, and their combined flow rate at Tarimmu and below can become bigger than Indus river’s maximum combined flow rate during 2010 flood.
  57. 57. Flood of 19921000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Tarbela_out_1992 Mangla_out_1992 Marala_out_1992 Jassar_out_1992 Suleimanki_out_1992
  58. 58. Flood of 1997800000700000600000500000400000300000200000100000 0 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Tarbela_out_1997 Mangla_out_1997 Marala_out_1997 Jassar_out_1997 Suleimanki_out_1997
  59. 59. Jhelum’s deadly peak of 1992; hour by hour12000001000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Mangla_inflow_1992 Mangla_outflow_1992
  60. 60. Flood control in Kabul river basin• In 2010, most of damage in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa occurred due to flood in Swat river. future Munda dam has a capacity of 0.76 MAF ,enough for only 3 days of peak flood. Munda dam needs a design change to increase the individual storage capacity by 3-4 times to absorb large floods.• moving same dam 18 km upstream from current location can store 4 times more water while producing more electricity using a power tunnel.• Kabul river at Nowshera drained 9.12 MAF flood water during 2010 flood month, about half of it came out of Swat river at Munda. 71% Swat river’s water flew during first 15 days.• Kabul river is the main river in Peshawar valley. Warsak dam on Kabul river is silted to the top, and offers zero storage capacity or flood control.• PFCS suggests a politically unconventional solution, “Khyber dam”.• If possible, this is the best and permanent solution for area and region for next several centuries.
  61. 61. Overview of proposed reservoirs# Dam River Role Max Dam Lake area Storage Extra Annual Water Height (Sq KM) Capacity Hydro electric level (feet) (MAF) potential (MASL) (GWH)1 Soan Dam Off Flood control, Storage, 410 415 1230 38.4 18000 channel Hydel (48.4 for Indus dynamic)2 Khyber Kabul Flood control, Storage, 500 550 324 10.67 3500 Dam Hydel3 Rohtas Off Flood control, Storage, 340 345 294 9 1000 Dam channel Hydel for Jhelum4 Bhit Dam Off Pumped Storage, 250 510 244 15.5 7000 with channel Regional Irrigation GIC for Indus command, Delta ecosystem support, optional Hydel5 Nari Bolan Nari Flood control, storage, 280 390 112 3.8 200 Dam Bolan Regional Irrigation command Total 77.37 29700
  62. 62. Overview map of PFCS Version 1.0
  63. 63. PFCS 2.0 upgrades
  64. 64. Data References• ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM) (10 m accuracy)• digital elevation model (DEM) data collected by NASAs Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM).• Topographic 1:50,000 maps by Survey of Pakistan.• India and Pakistan 1:250,000 Series U502, U.S. Army Map Service, 1955• Calculated capacity is based upon minimum of the results of processed datasets, which increases the level of confidence for calculations.• Soan dam’s axis was manually measured using 2 digital altimeters against known benchmarks. Results confirmed a depression of 131 meters (+10m bridge) from Dhulian Mor Mosque to top of Dhok Pathan bridge.• Final figures for Dam design, lake size, capacity and reservoir shape need professional physical survey of area.• Source of water flow data is “Flood forecasting division of Pakistan(FFD)”. Mathematical model is based upon daily averages and 6 hour flows at Rim stations in Pakistan.
  65. 65. Soan Dam• Soan valley is best available site for flood water storage below Tarbela. During 1960’s, World Bank team evaluated 5-6 times smaller storage reservoir at this site, with design bottle-neck of unlined canal and no option of Tunneling.• Lake size was likely never measured, because its listed size, height and dam length figures (picture below) are wrong. A 275 feet high dam at Dhok Pathan offers about 25 MAF gross storage and 35 MAF live storage for flood control. Thanks to report, as it confirms that minimum of 25-35 MAF flood water can be handled at 275 masl. Due to site’s topography and geophysical location, much bigger dam is possible. World bank report doesn’t talk about any foundation problems like Akhori area. It was either not evaluated, or there was no issue. Feasibility study can confirm it.• Seismicity of site is favorable (g factor 0.03-0.1, Source GSP Seismic Hazard Map of Pakistan)• In World bank’s report, figure of 8.5 MAF was used based upon a design of three parallel canals running for three months, needing water-lifting at some locations. It would have needed 15-17 unlined high maintenance parallel canals for transporting total flood water during flood season. It makes sense why this project didn’t get due attention . 45 years later, options of lined channel and large diameter tunnel boring can help exploit full potential of this site.
  66. 66. Soan Dam site GeologyDam axis lies on Pliocene and Miocene sedimentary rocks, same as the site of proposed Kalabagh dam. (Source: Geological Map of Pakistan, DG GSP)
  67. 67. Soan Dam site Geology
  68. 68. Soan Dam• Soan reservoir, made a dam 1 km upstream from Dhok Pathan bridge offers up to 46.6 MAF gross storage. A 113 meters deep lake can hold 38.4 MAF water. Several dam locations are available between Markhal to upstream Dhok Pathan from 395 m to 415 masl.• A dam at this location will not distribute any water from Indus river. It will collect during flood season and drain back to system at right time.• Proposed Grand Indus canal at 50000 cusecs can increase its effective capacity to 48.4 MAF for same height of 113 m.• dam at this site will be relatively low cost. Material requirements are 60% of Tarbela dam.• Mangla’s main dam and dykes length is more than 10 KM. 30 KM long Hirakud Dam on Mahanadi river in India (built in 1957) is four times longer than biggest possible Soan Dam.
  69. 69. Soan Reservoir •Following table shows possible capacity of Soan reservoir (using SRTM DEM V4.1) Required Dam elevation from contour Lake Lake capacity at Possible gross # length (KM) river bed(m) elevation(m) area(Acres) level(acre feet) capacity (MAF) 1 3.2 95 390 234889 22933956 22.9 2 3.78 100 395 258212 26978420 27 3 5.1 105 400 278367 31379494 31.4 4 5.67 110 405 299656 36120496 36.1 5 6.72 115 410 319837 41201640 41.2 5 7.66 120 415 340677 46619241 46.6•Following table shows possible capacity of Soan reservoir (using ASTER GDEM) lake depth Soan Dam bounded acres block volume Cumulative AF MAF 0 300 1622 10 310 7071 142608.665 8694.65 0.00869465 20 320 16512 386879.115 395573.765 0.39557377 30 330 35521 853601.365 1249175.13 1.24917513 40 340 55405 1491641.03 2740816.16 2.74081616 50 350 94613 2461045.29 5201861.45 5.20186145 60 360 134786 3763290.595 8965152.045 8.96515205 70 370 175522 5090602.74 14055754.79 14.0557548 80 380 220448 6495887.85 20551642.64 20.5516426 90 390 262908 7929455.18 28481097.82 28.4810978 100 400 303820 9297172.84 37778270.66 37.7782707 110 405 325862 5164714.575 42942985.23 42.9429852
  70. 70. Design parameters• Soan Dam needs an Earth filled main length with low dykes extending on both sides.• main length is 3 km long and 40 to 132m high.• Left and right dykes are 2.25 and 1 km in length with average height of 22 m(for average lake depth of 17 m)• Soan dam needs a 90 km waterway from Tarbela lake to the reservoir, (like Ghazi Barotha and proposed Akhori dam). a waterway with flow capacity of 250000 cusecs can assure the maximum storage use and flood control from July to September.• Soan reservoir will collect extra water from its own catchment area too, which spreads from Kallar Kahar to Muree. Dead reserve and local run-off will decrease the required size of Link canal.• Major design challenge is to connect the reservoir with Tarbela lake. Higher level canal will bring lesser silt, is more energy efficient, needs a shorter canal length for connection being closer to dam site, but at cost of dam life and flood control capacity of Tarbela dam . Adjusting the design flow rate can improve flood control without addressing silting of Tarbela. Lower level of link canal can improve life of Tarbela dam.• Tunnels can be used near start and end of the link canal to avoid excavation. With available maximum TBM diameters (~15 m) , 4 parallel tunnels can provide an alternative to excavating open channel at hard locations.
  71. 71. Soan link Canal level• Optimum height of Soan link canal intake needs detailed study of hydrological data trends as well as political aspects, but keeping it closer to dead level can keep Tarbela reservoir ready to absorb super floods.• Following table contains available storage capacity for each canal withdrawal level above Tarbela’s dead level. 435-445 offers best range for economical canal design. Please note that Diamer Basha dam’s storage will be a plus for available volumes in column #3 Storage available in Tarbela for flood control # Soan link canal intake level (meters) (MAF) 1 420 6.8 2 425 6.6 3 430 6.2 4 435 5.7 5 440 5.1 6 445 4.5 7 450 3.7 8 455 3 9 460 2.2 10 465 1.3 11 470 0.5 12 472.42 0
  72. 72. Soan link Canal• Pakistan has built largest fresh water link canal between Ghazi and Barotha. (base width 58.4m, depth 9m, side slope 1:2, gradient 1/10000, flow rate 56500 cusecs)• Duel canals for Balloki Suleimanki link use a width of 340 m for 82 km distance. With appropriate route, slope and depth combination, Soan Link Canal requires lesser width for lower flow speeds under 3 m sec.• By adjusting channel geometry, i.e. cross section, depth and slope, Soan link canal can generate up to 350k cusec flow-rates inside “man made gorge”. For last 20 km length, that need most digging, this option is very helpful by reducing width of canal by 60-80%.
  73. 73. Soan link Canal• Concrete lining is ideal for flows above 5m/s. it will be economical to use higher range of subcritical flow regime.• Lining will eliminate the high maintenance overhead feared in design from 1960s.• Upgrades in PFCS Version 2.0 will make it possible to use this canal partially around the year, for efficient and economical water and power usage.• Optional tunnel lengths discussed later will make things much easier. Cross sectional geometry of SLC can be adjusted according to feasibility of its navigable role.
  74. 74. SLC size choices vs. flow rates flowDischarge Discharge manning Free- velocity Channel Channel (cusecs) (cumecs) gradient coeff board(m) (m/s) Depth(m) Froude lining(m)165000 4672.28 0.0003 0.012 1.5 5.695 10.37 0.63 111.48225000 6371.29 0.0003 0.012 1.5 6.224 12.53 0.65 120.09300000 8495.05 0.0003 0.012 1.5 6.79 14.36 0.66 129.33350000 9910.9 0.0003 0.012 1.5 7.096 15.59 0.67 134.83
  75. 75. 2010 flood scenario with Soan Dam• After June 1st, Tarbela lake is kept at dead level 420 m (1378 ft) while diverting all extra water to Soan reservoir till a flood arrives.• Tarbela dam can absorb 6.8 MAF water, enough to completely stop the river flow from 28th July onwards, while diverting 250000 cusecs into Soan lake for next three months.• Numerical analysis shows that 6.8 MAF of dedicated capacity at Tarbela lake can easily absorb all flood spikes of 2010 while Soan link drains it continuously.• In this extreme case, mighty Indus can be totally blocked downstream Tarbela while collecting entire flood water (up to 38 MAF) into Soan reservoir. In the end, another 6.8 MAF capacity will still be available at Tarbela.• meanwhile it spares the Indus river bed between Tarbela and Kalabagh for highest floods in Kabul or Swat river. This makes second safety layer for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa flooding after Khyber dam.• In presence of future Diamer Basha Dam, capacity requirement for Soan link canal drops to 165000 cusecs for complete flood control.
  76. 76. Power generation at Soan• There will be no loss of power potential.• Extra water and extra altitude range means much more electricity than Tarbela, Ghazi Barotha and Kalabagh Dam together.• Soan can generate electricity at both inflow and outflow.• Dam site lies next to 380 KV transmission. It will cut the cost of associated power infrastructure.• Underground power plant at Kot Maliaran with inlet at lake’s dead level (310 m) can generate hydro-electric power comparable to Tarbela’s output.• Additional turbines on outflow will generate extra power.• Grand Indus canal from Soan Dam back to Indus can produce extra electricity, much more than Kalabagh Dam.• Tarbela offers 85-135m of potential difference with waste of flood water at peak level.• Soan Dam can use all water between 120 meter consistent head using tail intake design.
  77. 77. More about Soan dam• In addition to water storage and flood control, Reservoir area can be used for occasional farming(organized or unorganized), sometimes for years. (like in the Siran Pocket of Tarbela lake).• Storage area cannot be used for permanent settlements and populations need to relocate above maximum flooded level.• Reservoir area is sparsely populated due to its geography. Ratio of effected population is less than people displaced in construction of other big dams including Mangla, Tarbela and Diamer Basha. Akhori and Kalabagh dam effect higher population density areas.• No city will submerge. Both Chakwal and Talagang are 55 m and 120 m higher and at a safe distance.• Oil fields in Potohar will not submerge.• Soan Dam will submerge 40 km of M2 motorway. An elevated road with Chakri causeway will help avoid a longer M2. this is far less than 100 km submerged KKH in much difficult terrain for Diamer Basha dam.• Lake will recharge Soan river ecosystem with fresh water supply.
  78. 78. Geography of Soan lake
  79. 79. Near Soan dam site
  80. 80. Conceptual View
  81. 81. Cost estimate for Soan ReservoirTotal cost of Soan reservoir system will stay about half of Diamer Basha dam’s $12.6 billion (2008 estimate) due to type and location of project, while providing 7 times more storage capacity.Soan Dam• Soan Dam construction volume is much smaller than Tarbela dam.• 2:1 ratio dam (Tarbela standard)needs 54.3 mcm 2.5:1 ratio measures 66.3 mcm 3:1 (overdesign)ratio needs 78.22 mcm for 41% additional foundation size(equal to Tarbela) values become. 76.5, 93.4 and 110.3(51%, 62% and 73% of Tarbela dam size.)Soan Link Canal(SLC)• Total cost of Ghazi Barotha Canal was $365.7 Million.• SLC is 1.9 times longer and at an average, 1.5 times wider and deeper. This translates into 4.5 times more building material .• Gross Earthwork involved is 3.2 times more than GBC, for channel at 445 m.(4.5 including 1:1 safety step contours all along the length)• SLC will cost around $1.5 Billion.• Steep tunnel can be used in last quarter, “Culebra Cut” of SLC, but open channel will be more economical and needs low maintenance cost.
  82. 82. Rohtas Dam• Rohtas dam , an off channel storage site for Jhelum river on Kahan river bed, can provide 100% storage and flood protection in Jhelum river around the year.• It can completely block Jhelum flow during high floods in Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers, to thin out the intensity of flood.• It needs a single main Dam, smaller than Tarbela dam in construction volume.• Design level of Rohtas lake is 345 m, 40 m below maximum level of raised Mangla lake. It can generate power at both intake and exit.• two way flow control above Bheli Bathar can make water flow to Rohtas lake independent of the water level in Mangla lake. This will enhance the flood control capacity by several times.• Rohtas lake is 8.5 km from center of Dina city. Mangla lake is 11.75 km away. Kahan river bed between Dina and Rohtas reservoir will act as a natural barrier for Dina from seepage and other hydrological effects.
  83. 83. Rohtas Reservoir design numbers Rohtas1above river bed Dam(short axis) bounded acres volume Cumm AF MAF 0 240 434 10 250 3050 57155.02 8694.65 0.008695 20 260 6667 159407.4 168102 0.168102 30 270 12176 309119.4 477221.5 0.477221 40 280 19318 516659.1 993880.5 0.993881 50 290 27963 775644.8 1769525 1.769525 60 300 36834 1062995 2832520 2.83252 70 310 46436 1366044 4198564 4.198564 80 320 55710 1675705 5874270 5.87427 90 330 66577 2006118 7880388 7.880388 100 340 76817 2352379 10232766 10.23277 110 350 86670 2682004 12914771 12.91477
  84. 84. More Rohtas options(SRTM) Grandrohtas1@350 Rohtas 2 @380 OWR Gross Grossmasl ft Acres Acre-ft Capacity Acres Acre-ft OWR Capacity260 852.8 3623 237668.8280 918.4 16640 1091584 328000 5256 344793.6300 984 37562 2464067 590400 12527 821771.2 262400320 1049.6 61177 4013211 721600 24305 1594408 262400340 1115.2 87239 5722878 721600 32000 2099200 262400350 1148 97656 164000 42014 2756118 262400380 1246.4 50658 262400 13529410 2525600 16055010 7616291 1312000 8928291
  85. 85. Rohtas lake
  86. 86. Location of Rohtas lake
  87. 87. Conceptual view
  88. 88. Khyber Dam
  89. 89. Khyber Dam• Proposed 9 km upstream of existing Warsak dam, 500 ft high and 430 m long Khyber dam (145 m above river bed ) will create a reservoir of 10.67 MAF , bigger than Tarbela lake.• If required, Khyber dam can be constructed downstream, but it will need 50% longer dam. Detailed study is required to evaluate both options.• Upstream location has a challenge of silt removal. Grout Curtain or pressure grouting offers a time tested solution. grout is injected into drilled holes in silted riverbed above bed rock. This creates a waterproof barrier of overlapping pillars. Aswan dam has successfully used this technique on a much bigger scale. (video detail)• Proposed dam can absorb any size of flood in known history and Peshawar valley will never flood again.• Huge Khyber lake will extend 61 miles upstream, including last 30 miles inside Afghanistan. Tail of this lake will cover 25,949 hectares area inside Mohmand Dara , Lal Pur and Batikot distt in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan.
  90. 90. Khyber Dam• Lake area inside Afghanistan is well known flood zone and unsuitable for permanent settlements. It contains riverbed and farmland.• Lake will not effect Jalalabad which is 250 feet higher and 12 miles upstream from the maximum extent of proposed lake.• Afghanistan has recently built dams on Kabul river without consulting Pakistan. Pakistan should not do the same. It is better to discuss and coordinate on such issues, for welfare of effected people.• Effected Nangarhar province is a 100% Pashtun area, and gateway to Khyber pass. It can become hub for both trade and low cost energy for Afghanistan.• Afghanistan needs electricity, being one of the lowest countries by per capita power availability(3.6 watts per person)• Pakistan and Afghanistan should come up with a formula to materialize this mutually beneficial project for sake their people. Afghanistan can get share in extra electricity generated (~3500Gwh), land use charges or one time payment for relocation and development of displaced people.
  91. 91. Khyber Dam• Pakistan can help building improved irrigation system for alternate location of submerged land in Nangarhar.• Proposed dam can promise deep rooted co-operation for regional stability.• Aswan High dam on Nile river is another example, where Sudan and Egypt have worked together in similar situation. Aswan lake’s area inside Sudan is more than three times larger than proposed Khyber lake area inside Afghanistan at maximum level of 500 masl.• There can’t be a better way for Pashtun leadership to help their people while solving a permanent threat of flooding for millions of people.• This Project will help create opportunities on both sides of border, to promote peace and eliminate poverty and extremism.
  92. 92. Khyber Dam capacities(ASTER GDEM) average contourKhyber bounded acres block volume AF MAF 390 4465 400 6988 187886.465 8694.65 0.008695 410 11851 309053.795 317748.4 0.317748 420 16521 465442.66 783191.1 0.783191 430 22055 632839.28 1416030 1.41603 440 29193 840723.44 2256754 2.256754 450 36747 1081745.7 3338500 3.3385 460 42753 1304197.5 4642697 4.642697 470 51731 1550010.02 6192707 6.192707 480 63411 1888904.51 8081612 8.081612 490 76649 2297684.3 10379296 10.3793 500 91801 2763422.25 13142718 13.14272 510 107141 3263643.51 16406362 16.40636 520 124274 3796363.075 20202725 20.20272 530 143361 4390552.175 24593277 24.59328 540 164045 5042995.43 29636272 29.63627 550 185993 5742373.39 35378646 35.37865 560 204280 6402428.565 41781074 41.78107
  93. 93. Munda reservoir is 12 miles away and 100+ meters higher than Khyber lake.In future, Munda lake can be connected to Khyber lake with a steep spillway tunnel tosoften extreme floods in Swat river without wasting water or power.
  94. 94. Hydroelectric potential of Khyber dam• Kabul river at Nowshera has a flow rate comparable to Jhelum at Mangla. Warsak flow makes 80% of total flow at Nowshera.• Due to low design elevation, Warsak dam generates only 994 GWH(1/5th of Mangla’s output)• Mangla taps 4797 GWH between 55-105 meters potential drop range( between dead and peak level of reservoir)• Raised Mangla will generate 5800 GWH electricity between 55-117 m limits.• Khyber dam offers 67-180 meters, which translates into potential of 4500+ GWH per year.
  95. 95. Conceptual viewKhyber dam will look like Iran’s Karun-3 dam in dimensions and type
  96. 96. lake Khyber
  97. 97. Afghanistan side of Khyber reservoir: WHO map shows the location as flood hazard area
  98. 98. Bhit Dam• Sindh has a large natural site for Water storage near Bhit, between Bhadra and Kirthar mountains. It has never been considered before due to being different from conventional storage sites.• This site offers a perfect location for Pumped-storage hydroelectricity reservoir in its simplest form.• 150 meter high dam at 26.2590, 67.5136 can store 15.5 MAF water. Higher dam can create a lake up to 53.7 MAF.• proposed lake is surrounded with multiple layers of hill ranges on both sides, which makes it safer and stable. Reservoir’s design surface area is smaller than Manchar lake(0.08 MAF and 520 sq km), but storage capacity is about 200 times bigger. (not 200%). Size of Manchar lake can be reduced in presence of Bhit reservoir.• It needs a 6 km long dam, which is shorter than Mangla dam.
  99. 99. Bhit Dam• Bhit reservoir offers multiple uses, but water storage for Sindh province is its main aim. Proposed Grand Indus canal, can deliver hydroelectric potential of about 40 MAF water per year with higher relative potential. It translates into 1.5 - 2 times more electricity than Mangla dam.• Without Grand Indus canal, Bhit Dam can use Manchar lake as intake reservoir. Operating energy can come from Peak load balancing with national grid, Fossil fuel, local coal reserves, or multiple gas fields in same area.• Reservoir’s location and altitude offers opportunity to use wind as one of energy source.• Extended Grand Indus Canal, offers much more benefits than its cost, and is recommended as better option for feasibility study.• Water and power output of Bhit dam can support new urban and rural areas on Sindh highlands.
  100. 100. Bhit Dam site
  101. 101. Grand Indus canal• option of "alternate route" for Indus river will improve the situation of water logging and soil salinity in Indus Basin.• Grand Indus canal offers 115-185 meters of potential difference for entire summer water. Its integration with dams on western tributaries can multiply the total potential, while Kalabagh potential is only 65 m at maximum(controversial) level of 278 m(915 feet). In Picture: Conceptual view of Grand Indus canal.
  102. 102. Grand Indus canal• Grand Indus canal is a proposed concrete lined channel, that will deliver water from Soan Dam to Southern Indus basin around the year.• Grand Indus canal can act as a "Water Motorway of Pakistan", for efficient and quick delivery of water all along Pakistan downstream Tarbela. In addition it can help about efficient water transfer from one location to another within provinces.• Grand Indus canal @ 50,000 cusecs can add 10 MAF to the effective storage of Soan dam. it will cut cost of Soan dam for same design storage.
  103. 103. Grand Indus canal• Most of Pakistani cities are located along river banks and their ever increasing waste pollutes the rivers. this phenomenon causes serious health problems for lower Punjab and Sindh during low flow season. Pakistani rivers are still much cleaner than Ganga or Yamuna, but they need to aim higher standards. So far situation is only getting worse.• GIC will assure high quality water availability for southern Pakistan.• Pictures below show Ravi bridge(left) and 60 km downstream near head Baloki (right). This “Black Water” deserves attention.
  104. 104. Grand Indus canal• Enhanced control over river flow will decrease land erosion along Indus river during normal flow and floods.• optional branching channel between Punjab and Balochistan, just upstream Guddu barrage will provide a shortcut for flexibility of water usage in Sindh. This site is suitable for a hydroelectric ROR project.• Interlinked chain of WAPDAs proposed optimal sized dams can provide better water management for whole country.• Grand Indus canal offers potential for channel navigation, however this role needs to be evaluated for necessary adjustments in initial design.
  105. 105. Grand Indus canal• Soan link Canal faces a challenge of crossing Indus river above Kalabagh.• Siphon tunnel, elevated aqueduct, or an economical hybrid of both can be used for this purpose.• Pont du Gard, France(below) is more than 2000 years old.
  106. 106. Grand Indus canal• Option of Prestressed concrete Siphon is more secure and easy to maintain.• Figure: Soap Lake siphon in Washington state, USA
  107. 107. Nari Bolan Dam• Kachhi plane is surrounded with multiple suitable sites for water storage. small dams can be built for flood control and water harvesting. Most of these sites are suitable to drain flood water into Grand Indus canal.• 120 m high Nari Bolan dam, 3km upstream of Nari Head offers big storage capacity (3.8 MAF) for local flood water and extended grand Indus Canal.• Nari Bolan site lies in commanding position for sub-basin and its elevation is suitable for interface with extended Grand Indus canal.• Talli Tangi and Bolan dam sites on its left and right can be connected for additional storage, if needed.• Nari Bolan reservoir connected with Grand Indus canal can provide much bigger, efficient and elegant irrigation system for Balochistan than Kachhi canal due to its design parameters.
  108. 108. Nari Bolan Dam
  109. 109. Makran canal• Grand Indus canal will deliver water from multiple reservoirs to Bhit dam at 250+ masl.• It provides an option of a smaller canal link with Mirani dam, linking reservoirs in Dasht, Gwadar-Ormara, Hingol and Porali river basins.• This will greatly improve the coastal region for sustainable social and efficient agricultural growth.• Balochistan can use the canal to deliver a part of its flood water share across the Balochistan plateau. Government of Pakistan should allocate extra water for this region for development of local population and extra ordinary potential of this region.• Interbasin transfer of water is not something new. India uses Indra Gandhi canal to transfer Indus basin’s water to Thar desert. It shouldn’t be a problem within Balochistan.• 1151 km long 13,000 cusecs California aqueduct (built 1963) is a good model for this canal. Makran canal will be much smaller in capacity and length.
  110. 110. Makran canal• Makran canal can become the backbone for growth and prosperity in Makran.
  111. 111. Makran canal• Makran region has excellent geography and weather. Improved water supply can make it “California of Pakistan”, and “Gateway to Middle East.”
  112. 112. Water for Karachi• In Pakistan, 90% water is used for Agriculture. Out of rest 10%, Karachi gets a fraction of a percent to lead the national economy and industry.• Situation of water in Karachi needs a lot of improvement in quality and quantity. It is a major contributor towards problems of local population.
  113. 113. Water for Karachi• Makran canal will cross hub basin upstream Hub reservoir and Karachi can get more water according to its growth needs.
  114. 114. Current situation• During winter, total water inflow in Pakistan’s river system drops to just 3% of summer’s peak flows.• By January, dams in Pakistan are almost empty and total inflow drops to 35000 -40000 cusecs. On 23rd January 2010, there was 1.5 MAF water left, with just 37000 cusecs inflow to the system. total inflow on January 4 th 2010 was 37,205 and 34000 on 6th Feb. 2010.• During March, Pakistan’s existing dams hit the dead level. On 12 th March 2010, Mangla dam was at dead level (1040 ft), and Tarbela was at 1384 ft(5 feet above dead level). While system inflow was 69,024 cusecs.• Kharif sowing season in Sindh starts in April and ends well before the monsoon or heavy summer melt arrives. A blame game of water theft, playing politics and violation of water rights starts between provinces over every single drop of water, which makes sense because both dams and rivers are empty.
  115. 115. Current situation• Sindh needs extra storage capacity more than any other province to support its Kharif sowing season.• Cotton , Paddy(rice) and Sugarcane are major Kharif crops in Pakistan. Cotton and its products amount 60% of export earnings for Pakistan. Sugarcane provides a big portion of caloric intake for population while rice is used for both local consumption and export. (rice makes 10% of export earnings)• Monsoon helps Kharif crops in rest of the country, but uncertainty of rain delays or flooding is always there. A fluctuation in weather pattern can cause a big damage.• Late arrival of monsoon harms the initial growth of crops while floods due to heavy rains destroy the crops in flooded areas.• Building new dams can assure availability of right amount of water at right time, while controlling the floods.
  116. 116. Impact on Pakistans economy• No more floods means stable and safer cities and villages.• PFCS can control erosion on banks of rivers that destroys thousands of Acres of land annually in Pakistan.• Pakistan’s existing water storage capacity for Rabi (and Kharif sowing) is 12.1 MAF. building these dams will increase the storage capacity to 90 MAF• In Pakistan, One MAF stored water’s value is roughly equal to 2 Billion US dollars (in 2010). If PFCS is used at 40% potential, it can earn more than 70 billion 2010 US dollars per year for next several centuries.• Pakistan’s population estimate in 2010 is 180 million, which will double to 360 million by middle of current century.• Wheat, the most common staple food in Pakistan is a winter crop, that heavily depends upon stored water.• In future, Pakistan will need to switch its priority towards growing more winter crops for local consumption instead of “wasting” water on low profit water intensive exports including rice and cotton.• Our current major “cash crops” are at the bottom of food chain in international trade. Bangladesh uses them as raw material to export finished products to developed markets.• With better coordination and control on water losses, new areas can be brought under high efficiency cultivation in all four provinces.
  117. 117. Impact on Pakistans economy• "Devolution of water and power" among provinces.• growth of sustainable infrastructure for local population in western plains of Indus river.• food security and increased agriculture and livestock output.• Project will create jobs for local skilled and non skilled work-force during decades of construction, and later for operation and development of additional infrastructure in social and agricultural sector.• Water security for Karachi, the financial and industrial hub of Pakistan.• fresh water for Kirthar national park ecosystem and Manchar lake reservoir.• Water security for Makran coast. Makran can become the only coastal area around gulf with sustainable water supply for whole 500 miles stretch.• Balochistan will be able to use its share of water including flood water for sustainable and efficient irrigation in Makran region.
  118. 118. Hydroelectric power generation• Proposed dams can double the current hydroelectric power generation capacity in Pakistan.• Pakistan has enormous hydro electric potential, which is out of scope of this presentation.• Indus river hydroelectric projects like Pattan, Thakot, Dasu, Diamer Basha, Bunji, Yulbo, Tangus, Katzara and Yugo offer about 40000 MW hydroelectric power, and are part of WAPDA’s long term vision. A fraction of them can manage local flood hazards while coordinating with PFCS.• Proposed Katzara dam offers 40 MAF storage, more than Indus river’s annual flow at Skardu. This dam can ensure regulation of Indus water and power above Tarbela during winter, which will cut capacity and tunneling costs of power projects into half.
  119. 119. Interesting Trivia• Theory of “Redistribution of Precipitation (Seasonal Shift) in Pakistan” by Dr. Muhammad Hanif, National Weather Forecasting Centre (link) defines the changed pattern of 2010 monsoon. If this shift occurs more frequently, PFCS has already an off shelf solution for it. “Darra e Tang Dam” has very huge potential to absorb this shift. Site can collect up to 210 MAF water, submerging Laki Marwat and sparing Bannu. World bank left this site “blank” in its study. We don’t need such a big reservoir, but very low dam at Darra-Tang can offer comparatively large capacity, without touching population centers.• If Katzara dam is built as tall as Diamer Basha dam, it can hold 90 MAF water, equal to 2.5 year flow of Indus at dam site, but it will submerge beautiful Skardu valley.• Many possible dams in Balochistan are not included in PFCS 2.0 to avoid complexity. Reservoirs for Rashkan basin, Hamun Mashkhel basin, Pishin Lora basin and Hamun Lora basin can be handled individually.• Dozens of Right bank tributaries of Indus between Kalabagh and Arabian sea can be integrated into PFCS in future.• Name for Soan dam, the heart of PFCS, was chosen due to multiple factors. Wait for details.
  120. 120. Numerical results of PFCS performance for 2010 flood.
  121. 121. Conclusion• Floods, including Super floods will certainly come again, in a year, or a decade, or later.• By building flood control facilities, we will face them more gracefully.• Pakistani people can pray for floods once PFCS is built.• We don’t have enough time to waste before materializing such projects.
  122. 122. Thanks for watching Email for details & comments
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