Pastoral Transformations to Resilient Futures: Understanding Climate<br />From the Ground Up<br />K. Galvin, R. Reid, J. N...
Overall Project Objectives<br />Objective 1: understand the important climate and social changes <br />affecting  livestoc...
Change in Social-Ecological Systems<br />Political Economy (policy, power)<br />P<br />Global<br />Region<br />Place<br />...
Drivers of land use change in dryland<br />social- ecological systems<br /><ul><li>Human population growth
Land tenure (privatization, exclusivity, “land grabbing”)
Livelihood goals and aspirations
Livelihood diversification, intensification
Climate
Access to markets, labor
Conflict </li></li></ul><li>Human population in 1960<br />Uganda<br />Lake Victoria<br />Maasai<br />Mara<br />Serengeti<b...
Human population in 2000<br />Uganda<br />Lake Victoria<br />Maasai<br />Mara<br />Serengeti<br />low<br />Kenya<br />medi...
Cropland in<br />Maasailand, <br />Kenya and <br />Tanzania<br />Cropping %<br />Red = 10-20%<br />Tan = 40% <br />Green =...
INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE<br />Change signals that have been observed include:<br /><ul><li> temperature rises;
decreasing/increasing rainfall trends (depending on  location)
 melting and retreat of mountain glaciers;
 increasing frequency of ENSO events (extreme climate events);</li></ul>These change signals have been associated with the...
 resurgences of some diseases;
 rivers becoming more seasonal or disappearing altogether;
 shrinking of lake levels; and
shifts in rainfall seasons among others.</li></li></ul><li>Current Observed Trends<br />Global Average Trends<br />Local M...
Rainfall Trends In Kenya<br />Nyahururu<br />Nyahururu<br />Nyahururu<br />Marsabit<br />Narok<br />KMD<br />
African agricultural areas projected to undergo a > 20% reduction in growing season length by 2050<br />…rainfall may go u...
Spatial-temporal Scales of Drivers & Changes<br />(Not an exhaustive list)<br />
Progress of project <br />Workshop, focus group interviews<br />Trailer of video<br />Surveys, focus groups, key informant...
Objectives of workshop: <br />Observations of climate change<br />The science of climate change<br />Changes from the dryl...
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Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting 2011: PTRF Project Update (K. Galvin)

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An overview of the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP PTRF (Pastoral Transformations to Resilient Futures--Understanding Climate from the Ground Up) Project and update on the project's current status. Presentation given by K. Galvin (Colorado State University) at the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting, Golden, CO, April 26-27, 2011.

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  • Draws on the previous work by researchers from many disciplines – geography, HE, Sociology But the reasons that it is useful in the work that I do: Social and ecological components of systems are brought together into one framework integrates appreciation for power relationships, policy Allows consideration of not just 1 hazard at a time, but many Allows consideration of change at multiple scalesBut the vulnerability framework has also been expanded to represent processes of change in SE systems more broadlyNot just vulnerability – which only represent one state of being vulnerable (x is vulnerable or not to y set of exposures)But also processes of resilience: The capacity of social-ecological systems to absorb disturbances so as to retain essential structures, processes and feedbacks So that under a range of conditions people have the ability to learn, innovate and persistSo where does my work fit into this framework?I’m interested in hh livelihoods – hh scaleSo in my PhD work with Maasai, given set of exposures - What endowments do people have to work with? Wealth, Social Capital, Infrastructure, Land rights - the focus is on sensitivityThis sets the stage for how people are able to respond Then: What are responses how well are they doing? What the outcomes for Well-being??? And: are there Innovative, emergent responses? What stays the same and what changes?Then for Post Doc: Same focus on nexus between sensitivity But more nuanced thinking about how characteristics combine to allow hh’s to react to a range of exposures – more focus on R
  • Aloe plants in TurkanaGum arabic in Garissa
  • Markets for livestock but also other products such as gum arabica, aloeThese occur at various social organizational scalesCOMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern AfricaIGAD = Intergovernmental Authority on Development
  • Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting 2011: PTRF Project Update (K. Galvin)

    1. 1. Pastoral Transformations to Resilient Futures: Understanding Climate<br />From the Ground Up<br />K. Galvin, R. Reid, J. Njoka, D.Ole Nkedianye, P. Thornton<br />This presentation was made possible by the United States Agency for International Development and the generous support of the American people through Grant No. EEM-A-00-10-0001. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.<br />
    2. 2. Overall Project Objectives<br />Objective 1: understand the important climate and social changes <br />affecting livestock management in two pastoral areas: Athi-Kaputiei<br />Plains and the Greater Mara Ecosystem.<br />Objective 2: how do pastoralists observe climate and other changes <br />and how has it affected livestock condition management and <br />marketing strategies.<br />Objective 3: hold 2 workshops hosted by Maasai NGOs to develop <br />solutions<br />
    3. 3. Change in Social-Ecological Systems<br />Political Economy (policy, power)<br />P<br />Global<br />Region<br />Place<br />Social capital<br />Exposure (Objective1)<br />Climate<br />Globalization: <br /> land tenure change<br /> tourism<br /> population increases<br /> markets<br />Structure/Sensitivity <br />(Objective 2)<br />Social and Natural Capital: <br />Ecosystem <br /> Livestock, Wildlife<br />Land Use<br />Livelihoods<br />Adaptability/Action <br />(Objective 3)<br />Governance<br />Land use decisions<br />Livestock management<br />???<br />Persist?<br />Transform?<br />Perceptions of risk<br />(Objective 2)<br />Impact<br />Environmental Influences<br />Vulnerability<br />Resilience<br />Based on: Chapin and Kofinas 2009; Turner et al 2003 <br />
    4. 4. Drivers of land use change in dryland<br />social- ecological systems<br /><ul><li>Human population growth
    5. 5. Land tenure (privatization, exclusivity, “land grabbing”)
    6. 6. Livelihood goals and aspirations
    7. 7. Livelihood diversification, intensification
    8. 8. Climate
    9. 9. Access to markets, labor
    10. 10. Conflict </li></li></ul><li>Human population in 1960<br />Uganda<br />Lake Victoria<br />Maasai<br />Mara<br />Serengeti<br />low<br />Kenya<br />medium<br />high<br />Tanzania<br />Kruska and Reid (1999)<br />
    11. 11. Human population in 2000<br />Uganda<br />Lake Victoria<br />Maasai<br />Mara<br />Serengeti<br />low<br />Kenya<br />medium<br />high<br />Tanzania<br />Kruska and Reid (1999)<br />
    12. 12. Cropland in<br />Maasailand, <br />Kenya and <br />Tanzania<br />Cropping %<br />Red = 10-20%<br />Tan = 40% <br />Green = 60%<br />Light blue = 80-100%<br />Africover, FAO<br />
    13. 13. INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE<br />Change signals that have been observed include:<br /><ul><li> temperature rises;
    14. 14. decreasing/increasing rainfall trends (depending on location)
    15. 15. melting and retreat of mountain glaciers;
    16. 16. increasing frequency of ENSO events (extreme climate events);</li></ul>These change signals have been associated with the following observed impacts<br /><ul><li> Sea level rises
    17. 17. resurgences of some diseases;
    18. 18. rivers becoming more seasonal or disappearing altogether;
    19. 19. shrinking of lake levels; and
    20. 20. shifts in rainfall seasons among others.</li></li></ul><li>Current Observed Trends<br />Global Average Trends<br />Local Max Temperature Trends<br />Lodwar<br />(a) Global Average Temperature<br />(b) Global Average Sea Level<br />Dagoretti<br />(c) Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover<br />
    21. 21. Rainfall Trends In Kenya<br />Nyahururu<br />Nyahururu<br />Nyahururu<br />Marsabit<br />Narok<br />KMD<br />
    22. 22. African agricultural areas projected to undergo a > 20% reduction in growing season length by 2050<br />…rainfall may go up, but it will <br />get hotter, so in many places, <br />it will be drier…<br />IPCC (2007) citing Thornton et al. (2006)<br />
    23. 23.
    24. 24. Spatial-temporal Scales of Drivers & Changes<br />(Not an exhaustive list)<br />
    25. 25.
    26. 26. Progress of project <br />Workshop, focus group interviews<br />Trailer of video<br />Surveys, focus groups, key informant interviews underway<br />Workshop in August with focus groups<br />Development of video <br />
    27. 27. Objectives of workshop: <br />Observations of climate change<br />The science of climate change<br />Changes from the dryland regions<br />Future scenarios<br />Pathways to the Future <br />
    28. 28. Changes in weather<br />
    29. 29. Land Tenure and land use<br />
    30. 30. Soil, pasture and water changes<br />
    31. 31. Other changes<br />Livestock condition, movement and marketing<br />Disruption of movement routes<br />Decrease in production<br />Shift to sheep and goats<br />Livelihoods<br />Diversification<br />Growth of women managed activities<br />Low incomes affects education, health<br />Social relations<br />Weaker family stability; increased conflict<br />
    32. 32. solutions<br />Security <br />Infrastructure: roads, education, storage of fodder, marketing information and abbatoirs, water, banking, climate information <br />Land use policy to open, unfenced land<br />Disease free zones, human and veterinary <br />Economic diversification: tourism, dryland products, women in business, health <br />Environmental development: tree planting, wind, dryland products: aloe, gum arabic<br />
    33. 33. Actions for a desired future<br />National land policy that support pastoralism<br /><ul><li>Climate change policy that includes pastoralists
    34. 34. Link pastoralists to East Africa Community, COMESA, IGAD and Arab markets
    35. 35. County* and nation provide security, markets*, zones for land use, infrastructure, education, banking, health and veterinary services
    36. 36. County level pastoral department
    37. 37. Strengthen civil society organizations</li></li></ul><li>Focus group interviews: Kitengela<br />
    38. 38. Lessons learned<br />Climate never acts in isolation<br />Pastoralists learn from each other<br />No single solution is appropriate for all pastoral regions<br />Gender differences in the consequences of climate change. Implications for food security<br />There is a need for climate forecasts and what climate change is<br />
    39. 39. Emerging issues<br />Bring local voices from climate policy to county governance<br />Gender issues from economic diversification to food security<br />Compare different pastoral regions<br />Scale issues from the local to the regional <br />
    40. 40. Conclusions under a changing climate <br /><ul><li>People want recovery/survival of livelihoods and modernization
    41. 41. They want both community self-determination and rights of access to state and other resources
    42. 42. It will take new capacities: managerial, marketing, education, inter-institutional coordination
    43. 43. Transformations are underway that are redefining livelihoods and resource management in the drylands</li></li></ul><li>Thank You<br />http://lcccrsp.org/projects/east-africa/ptrf/<br />

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