Asaduzzaman - Mitigation in Bangladesh
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Mohammed Asaduzzaman: Mitigation in Bangladesh's National Climate Change Action Plan and priorities for research (presentation from Mitigation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

Mohammed Asaduzzaman: Mitigation in Bangladesh's National Climate Change Action Plan and priorities for research (presentation from Mitigation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

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Asaduzzaman - Mitigation in Bangladesh Asaduzzaman - Mitigation in Bangladesh Presentation Transcript

  • Low Carbon Development in Bangladesh: Agriculture & BCCSAP 2009 M. Asaduzzaman Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Dhaka Presented at Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture Science Workshop Playa del Carmen, Mexico December 1, 2010
  • Trend in Rice Output by Season Over time boro , dry period irrigated rice has gained prominence in area & output– rainfed aus has lost out. Aman, part rainfed-part irrigated, area & output remain largely static
  • Despite Growth Seasonal Rice Output Remains Volatile Seasonal rice outputs are volatile - aman output growth may often be negative
  • Mechanisation and ownership of equipments in agriculture Mechanisation of tillage as well as irrigation is widespread among all types of farmers, large and small
  • Irrigation trends by mode Mainly mechanised ground water irrigation helped dry period cultivation – diesel operated shallow tube wells are the mainstay of the system. Surface irrigation with low lift pumps are more site-specific
  • Fuel choice by Mode of irrigation
  • Direct Energy Use in Rice Production
    • Lifting water for irrigation and mechanised tillage are main activities using energy – diesel and electricity in case of former and diesel in the second case
    • Harvesting is manual – husking is manual, mechanised and also through small and large rice mills which uses biomass, electricty and diesel for boilers and motors
    • Long distance transport with motorised means is common for marketing
    • Apart from production, knowledge of energy use in other cases is limited – yet even here energy use may be inefficient as is the case in say irrigation
  • Indirect Use of Energy in Crop Production Urea is the main fertiliser in use – mainly from domestic production using natural gas. Others are mainly imported. Sales of urea show the most prominent upward trend
  • Irrigation efficiency of Diesel-operated STW (ha/machine) Inefficiency in irrigation may be quite widespread as the graph indicates although part may be explained by soil quality and other such factors
  • Policy Environment
    • Spread of irrigation, fertiliser use and mechanised tillage all facilitated over time by policies to encourage their use
    • Inputs subsidy – fertiliser, diesel and electricity for irrigation
    • Previously diesel prices were not subsidised but fixed by Government resulting in lower prices relative to rice due to rising rice prices and thus encouraging its increasing use - for electricity the prices were subsidised and nominally fixed lowering its relative price over time as next two slides show
    • On the other hand, substantial reduction in public expenditure on research, extension and marketing in recent past as shown later
  • Price movement of Diesel
  • Movement in electricity prices
  • Investment Trends in R&D, Extension and Marketing
  • Climate Change and Bangladesh
    • Impact of climate change in general and on agriculture, role of agriculture in GHG emission, and response of Bangladesh to these issues have to be seen against these backdrops
  • Losses in Agricultural GDP due to Climatic Factors Now and in Future Cost of present climate variability - 7.4% output/yr mainly due to lower boro output. SW coast to be worst affected. Future CC lowers output further by nearly 4%/yr. GDP loss - US$ 26 bn for ag & US$ 121 for national over 2005-50 due present variability. CC to add more losses of US$7.7 and 26 bn.
  • Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009
    • A consequence of 1/CP13
    • BAP
    • 4 inviolate principles -
      • Food security
      • Water security
      • Energy security
      • Livelihood (incl health) security
    • Six pillars, 34 programme areas
    • One pillar is low carbon development
    • Should be read along with food security theme and Research and Knowledge Management themes
  •  
  • Research Principles
    • From food security view point emphasis on development and popularisation of various stress-tolerant varieties
    • From low carbon view point, lowering emission in agriculture
    • From livelihood view point, stress on protection of employment, income and livelihood particularly of poor, women and those in ecologically fragile areas
    • From water security view point, water use must be absolute minimum without waste
    • From energy security view point, minimum energy needs must be fulfilled
    • Each can be done separately; but not a desirable solution
    • Challenge is to satisfy each condition
  • Challenges
    • • Mitigation in agriculture without adaptation will threaten food security
    • • Adaptation without mitigation will raise cost
    • of production and food will be costlier
    • • Mitigation & adaptation get intertwined and
    • must be addressed in this situation simultaneously
    • • Both require that water use be economized
    • through choice of crops, new agronomic
    • practices, development of drought-tolerant or escaping varieties, etc so that while energy use is lowered food production does not fall
  • Immediate Research Needs
    • Development of stress tolerant varieties-some such as shorter duration, drought tolerance, heat tolerance to lower energy needs and GHG emission
    • Development of CC-smart cropping systems
    • Extension and diffusion issues
    • Reexamination of subsidy issues to lower wasteful water, energy use
    • Stabilise rainfed rice output so that irrigated rice dependence for food security lessened & energy needs and emission lowered
    • Lowering irrigation water needs
    • Lowering of indirect energy needs
  • Capacity-building needs
    • Capacity and technology needs assessment to be done
    • Capacity of National Agricultural research System to be a priority, particularly for research with complex and intertwined goals
    • Development and transfer of cost-effective technology
    • And of course financing the whole research and related activities
    • Given the slow pace of CC negotiations, a new or parallel paradigm of global cooperation needs to be established
    • THANK YOU