2003 Presentation at NASBLA Futures Forum by Dr. Geoff Godbey

1. NASBLA Stakeholders' Forum
"Changing Face and Pace
of Recreation & Recreational Boating"
By Geoffrey Godbey
Recreation, Park and Tourism Management
Penn State University
g7g@psu.edu

2. More People
The US population will continue to increase, reaching 350
million or more in the next 25 years
These people will live, disproportionately, within 100 miles of
the shoreline of the East and West coasts.

3. That’s the Good News

4. More Diverse People
The population will be more diverse by ethnic status,
living arrangements, political and religious beliefs,and
economic status.
A higher percentage of non-white people will live
within close proximity to the coastlines, Gulf of Mexico
and Great Lakes

5. 2000 2050
White 76% 50%
Black 12% 15%
Hispanic 9% 21%
Asian/other 3% 14%

6. Distribution of Diversity Uneven
In 1995, 74 percent of the Nation's Hispanics resided in five States.
California, with 9 million, had the largest share of the Nation's
Hispanic population followed by Texas, New York, Florida, and
Illinois.
California's Hispanic population will more than double over the
projection period (21 million and represents 36 percent of
the total Hispanic population in 2025).

7. More Diverse Households
The relationships of those living in the same household
will become more diverse
Fewer married couples with children
More blended families
More unrelated people living in a household
More gay and lesbian families
More interracial households

8. Smaller Households
Average U.S. household has 2.6 people in it. Almost one-quarter
of the households have only one person in them.
Average American lives in almost 700 sq. feet of space per person,
the highest it has ever been

9. Prolonged adolescence
People are becoming “adults” at later ages--25--30 years old. They
are financially independent later, marry later, and act like children
longer
Deferred retirement
The move toward earlier retirement has been reversed. Many
people lost their shirt in the recent market crash and scandals.
Others now prefer to work, often retiring from one job but
taking another

10. A Revolution in Women’s Roles
There is cultural lag in Americans’ perception of the
educational attainment and achievements of girls and boys.
While the feeling persists that girls are ignored
in public school, remain passive, have low self esteem, etc.,
girls are far higher achievers in public schools than boys and
they are more likely to go to college. According to the U.S.
Department of Education, girls get better grades in public
schools, are slightly more likely to enroll in higher level math
and science courses and outnumber boys in student government,
honor societies, school newspapers and debating teams
(Sommers, 2000).

11. Girls read more books than boys, outperform
them on tests for artistic and musical ability, and are more
likely to study abroad. Boys are more likely to be suspended
from school, held back, drop out, or be involved in crime,
alcohol or drugs. Boys are more than three times more likely
to receive a diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.
While girls are more likely to attempt suicide, boys are more
likely to succeed in killing themselves by a ratio of more than
five to one.
In 1996 there were 8.4 million women but only
6.7 million men enrolled in college and the
projections are that by 2007, women will
outnumber men in college even more
substantially—9.2 million women and 6.9
million men (Sommers, 2000, p. 29).

12. The Increase in Galactic Cities
Nucleated cities emerged in the nineteenth
century where industrialization occurred.
They had a well defined commercial area,
known as downtown, Industry was lined up
along the railroad tracks and residential areas
were arrayed around the edges and segregated
along lines of income, ethnicity and race.
(Lewis, 1995).

13. These cities were replaced by emerging
“galactic” cities, as the automobile became the
primary means of transport. Rather than think of
this as urban sprawl, Lewis (1995) contends this is
a new kind of city.

14. Characteristics
Internal transportation system made up of interstate and
limited access highways.
A considerable degree of internal commercial clustering,
usually at the intersections of main arterial highways.
An industrial clustering that is no longer based on
manufacturing but more on high tech and services or
clean industry. Industrial parks.
Residential areas that are highly consumptive of space.
Single houses with lawns and garages.
Galactic cities help ensure that travel by automobile dominates.

15. Increasing Transportation
Gridlock
There are now more cars and personal trucks than
People in the U.S.

16. The automobile will continue to prevail as the
dominant transportation form for many reasons.
It allows the greatest customization of travel schedules, it is
the most heavily subsidized form of travel by government,
it provides privacy, it is more comfortable than mass transit,
and it is the only means for negotiating the centerless galactic
cities which have emerged as the dominant form of
urbanism in the U.S. While light rail will make some gains,
the investment costs to develop magnetic levitation or other
high speed train systems is immense and start up time is
more than a decade at best.

17. Increasing Differentiation in
Education, Income,
Knowledge and Values
The poor are getting poorer and the rich much richer.
The percentage of people in the middle class has dropped rapidly.
While one-quarter of the U.S. public now has a college degree,
the “spread” of educational attainment is increasing.

18. The mass customization
of work
Changes in technology have revolutionized work in ways
that are revolutionizing the rest of life,
customizing every individual’s life in the process.

19. When the factory system standardized work in Europe and
North America, which was done outside the home in big
ugly buildings, public education followed suit. The factory
approach to public education resulted in standardized buildings,
standardized curricula, standardized textbooks, teacher
qualifications, and standardized notions of the truth.
Leisure became more standardized too, from bowling
alleys to shopping malls to TV shows, which were
watched by over half the households in a country.

20. Work is going through a revolution, changing the rest of life.
The notion that a “job” is a fixed bundle of tasks is disappearing
(Bridges, 1994). “Jobs” are moving targets, demanding
continuous learning and change on the part of the worker.
More people work part-time, work at home, have no
designated place to work, or combine work with college,
raising children, or retirement. Workers who work during
daylight hours on weekdays may become the minority.
The largest employer in the U.S. is Manpower Incorporated. It
is estimated almost 1/2 of U.S. workers may become
contingent workers by 2005.

21. Small Parcels of Free Time
While Americans average 35-40 hours of free time
a week, the majority of those hours come on weekdays in
small chunks of time--an hour here, and hour and a half
there.

22. The Experience Economy
"Life is not measured by the number of breaths we
take, but by the moments that take our breath away."
While part of the new economy may be described as
a “knowledge” economy, another increasingly
important part of the new economy is the
offering of memorable experiences.

23. When a person buys a service, he purchases a
set of intangible activities carried out on his
behalf. But when he buys an experience, he
pays to spend time enjoying a series of
memorable events that a company stages
—as in a theatrical play—to engage him in
a personal way.
(Pine and Gilmore, 1999, p. 2)
Such experiences are as distinct from services as
services are from products.

24. Experiences are not synonymous with entertainment
but rather with engaging the guest.
While many experiences are entertainment,
experiences may also be
educational,
escapist or
esthetic in nature.
As the experience economy grows, many managers
of leisure and tourism sites will find that the issue will
be less of managing people and natural resources
than of managing “meaning.”

25. http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/
trends
See this website for further information
about boating and demographic change
Boating Trends & the Significance of
Demographic Change by Gary T. Green,
Ken Cordell, and Becky Stephens