Presented by Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, and Delia Grace at the Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference, Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012
The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries: Issues facing the world's poor
1. The production and consumption of
livestock products in developingfuture:
Production systems for the countries:
balancing trade-offs between food production,
efficiency, livelihoodsworld'senvironment
Issues facing the and the poor
Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero,
Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, Delia GraceP.K. Thornton
M. Herrero and
Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference
WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation
Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012st
21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
2. Overview
Global poverty and undernutrition
Consumption and production of
livestock products:
– trends
– drivers
– future projections
Challenges ahead
Opportunities for the poor
3. Main messages
The rising demand for livestock products in
developing countries presents significant
opportunities and threats
Choices about how to manage the global
livestock sector have to be context specific.
Institutional innovation as important as
technological innovation in charting the best
ways forward.
5. Changes in global poverty
indicators
% of population living on less than $1.25/day
– 1990 - 41.7%
– 2005 - 25.2%
Millions of people living on less than $1.25/day
– 1990 - 1,818
– 2005 - 1,374
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
6. Percent of population living on
less than US$1.25/day - 1990
Dark red: >80
Red: 60-80
Orange: 40-60
Light orange: 20-40
Yellow: <20
Grey: no data
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
7. Percent of population living on
less than US$1.25/day - 2000
Dark red: >80
Red: 60-80
Orange: 40-60
Light orange: 20-40
Yellow: <20
Grey: no data
7
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
8. Percent of population living on
less than US$1.25/day - 2010
Dark red: >80
Red: 60-80
Orange: 40-60
Light orange: 20-40
Yellow: <20
Grey: no data
8
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
21. Consumption and production
of livestock products in
developing countries
Future projections
ILRI Spearheading a
New Way Forward
22. Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita Total
consumption consumption
Year Meat Milk Meat Milk
(kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt)
Developing 2002 28 44 137 222
2050 44 78 326 585
Developed 2002 78 202 102 265
2050 94 216 126 295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
23. Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita Total
consumption consumption
Year Meat Milk Meat Milk
(kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt)
Developing 2002 28 44 137 222
2050 44 78 326 585
Developed 2002 78 202 102 265
2050 94 216 126 295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
24. Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita Total
consumption consumption
Year Meat Milk Meat Milk
(kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt)
Developing 2002 28 44 137 222
2050 44 78 326 585
Developed 2002 78 202 102 265
2050 94 216 126 295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
25. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of
additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet
food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)
Grains
1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
Livestock Human
430 million MT consumption
(Monogastrics mostly) 458 million MT
biofuels
160 million MT
26. Annual changes in Cereal Production
2000 - 2030
6
5
4
%
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009
27. Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
8
7
6
5
%
4
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
9
8
7
6
5
%
4
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
30. Livestock and human disease
Animal source foods are the
biggest contributor to food-borne
disease
Diseases transmitted from
livestock & by livestock products
kill more people each year than
HIV or malaria
One new human disease emerges
every 2 months - 20% of these
from livestock (Jones et al., 2008) 15 key zoonotic diseases
reported on HealthMap (2006-
2011) (Grace et al., 2011)
31. Livestock and animal disease
Animal disease can be the key constraint (ECF,
tryps, Newcastle disease)
– Remove it and animal populations double
Increasingly animal disease impacts are outside
the livestock sector
Early-stage intensification associated with
increased disease
– Most of current growth in animal production is in
early stage
33. Use and impact of livestock production
on land, water, biodiversity
Livestock production
generates many
negative externalities
Significant
opportunities to
increase efficiency in
many systems—more
production with fewer
animals
34. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per
kilogram of animal protein produced
Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
35. Effect of climate change on
livestock production
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Courtesy of A. Jarvis
37. Emerging concerns in developing countries
Overconsumption
Animal welfare
Gender and
equity, especially in
the face of rapid
change
Conflict and transition
to non-agricultural
livelihoods 37
39. Livestock demand will
be met by a variety of
sectors and systems
Currently a significant
role for smallholders
(30% of milk, 15-18% of
poultry)
Highest potential in local
and regional markets in
developing countries
40. Strengthening livestock value chains
Inputs & Consumers
Production Processing Marketing
Services
Enabling public policy and
institutions
Access to input and output
markets
Uptake of new improved
technology
Public and private partnerships
Attention to gender and equity
41. CGIAR Research Program 3.7:
More meat, milk and fish by and for the poor
SHEEP & GOATS
AQUACULTURE
PIGS
DAIRY
9 Target Value Chains
42. Managing risk and providing
environmental services in rangelands
Largest land use system
High levels of poverty
and food insecurity
Managing risk through
livestock insurance
Exploring feasibility of
environmental service
schemes around wildlife
conservation and/or
carbon sequestration
Potential for carbon
sequestration in rangelands
(Conant and Paustian 2002)
43. Some conclusions
The rising demand for livestock foods in poor
countries presents
– Opportunities
• Pathway out of poverty and malnutrition
• Less vulnerability in drylands
• Sustainable mixed systems
– Threats
• Environmental degradation at local and global
scales
• Greater risk of disease and poor health
• Greater risk of conflict and inequity
44. Key issues for decision makers
– appreciation of the vast divide in livestock
production between rich and poor countries
– intimate understanding of the specific local context
for specific livestock value chains
– reliable evidence-based assessments of the hard
trade-offs involved in adopting any given approach
to livestock development
Institutional innovations as important as
technological/biological innovations in
charting the best ways forward
– Organization within the sector
– Managing trade offs at multiple scales
Editor's Notes
FAO measure of undernutrition is based on energy only. IFPRI estimates that currently 2 billion people are undernourished using a definition that includes lack of calories as well as protein and micro nutrients.
Notes: Calculated using international prices for cereals, oilseeds, meats, dairy products and sugar. The FAO Food PriceIndex is calculated from 1990 to the present on a regular basis; in this figure it has been extended back to 1961 usingproxy price information. The index measures movements in international prices and not necessarily domestic prices.The United States GDP deflator is used to express the Food Price Index in real rather than nominal terms.
Diets change when people move to cities, more processed food and more meat