Human health risks at the animal-human interface

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Presented by Joachim Otte and Delia Grace at the Workshop on Asian Livestock: Challenges, opportunities and the Response, Bangkok, 16‐17 August 2012

Presented by Joachim Otte and Delia Grace at the Workshop on Asian Livestock: Challenges, opportunities and the Response, Bangkok, 16‐17 August 2012

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  • 1. Asian Livestock Challenges, Opportunities and the Response August 16-17, 2012 Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok
  • 2. Human Health Risks at the Animal-Human Interface Joachim Otte & Delia Grace 2
  • 3. Overview• Asia’s growing food demand• Asia’s livestock sector response• Infectious and parasitic disease dynamics• Impacts of zoonotic diseases• Response elements 3
  • 4. Global Human Population: 2000BC – 2010AD 2050: 9.3 blnBillion 1950: 2.6 bln App. 1850 Source: IUCN/WWF Living Planet Report 4
  • 5. Meat & Dairy Expenditure Density Source: PPLPI (2008) 5
  • 6. Income Growth: China & India Income in $2005PPP Allocation of additional $ 100 80 Non-food Other food 60 Fish Milk 40 Meat Fruit Cereals 20 0 Devping Devped 6
  • 7. Poultry Meat Demand Growth 2000-2030 Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011) 7
  • 8. Egg Demand Growth 2000-2030Demand growth in kg per sqkm Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011)
  • 9. Dairy Demand Growth 2000-2030Demand growth in kg per sqkm Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011) 9
  • 10. Livestock Sector Growth & Development• Growth in total number • Larger farming units of livestock and concentration of• Relative growth in units importance of poultry • Increased use of feed and pigs vs ruminants ‘additives’• Faster turnover / • Stratification of sector increased throughput and vertical integration (intensification) / contract farming – Increased use of high- • Longer, cross-border density feeds supply chains – Genetic selection 10
  • 11. Growth in Poultry Meat & Poultry Numbers, 1990-2010 East Asia Southeast Asia 11
  • 12. System Co-existence ‘High Tech.’ ‘Intermediate Tech.’ ‘Low Tech.’ Production Processing Retail 12FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
  • 13. Ecological Consequences• Land use change leads to habitat fragmentation and growing interfaces• Expansion of irrigated areas provides new habitats for waterborne organisms and insect vectors• Large, housed, rapid-turnover genetically homogenous farmed animal populations and heavy use of antimicrobials provide new eco- system and selective pressures• Complex value chains provide novel transmission pathways 13
  • 14. Building Bridges, Supporting Livelihoods Pathogen Reservoirs, Interfaces & Dynamics Domestic animal Pathogen dynamics ‘pool’ • Territorial expansion / invasion Wildlife Human • Within species fitness / ‘pool’ ‘pool’ virulence shifts • Species‘jumps’ • Direct exposure / contact • Indirect exposure / contactFAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 14
  • 15. 15
  • 16. Host & Lineage Origins for the Gene Segments of the 2009 A(H1N1) Virus Source: RJ Garten et al. Science 2009;325:197-201 16
  • 17. Example: Avian Influenza Virus• Species ‘jump’ – Wild waterfowl domestic poultry humans & cats• Virulence shift – LPAI HPAI (Italy, Holland, Canada, Chile, China, Mexico)• Territorial expansion – HPAIV H5N1 affected > 60 countries on 3 continents and has become endemic in 5 or 6 countries 17
  • 18. Selection for Virulence • Mode of transmission: – (i) horizontal ; vertical – (ii) indirect ; direct • Host homogeneity • Host cluster connectivity • Within-host strain competition • Vaccination or • Culling • Treatment or Sources: Galvani 2003, 2008FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 18
  • 19. Antimicrobial Use AM Use USA AM Use(Total 17,500 tonnes) (kg/tonne meat) 19
  • 20. Resistance of Non-typhoidalSalmonella enterica Isolates to Antibiotics 20
  • 21. Genetic Exchange Among Bacterial SpeciesFrom Silbergeld et al., 2008 21
  • 22. Zoonotic Disease Impacts / Costs• Income foregone through reduced economic activity• Cost of precautionary and preventive measures• Cost of control activities• Reduced productivity and welfare in humans and animals through disease burden itself 22
  • 23. SARS Impact on Global Travel, Hong Kong 23
  • 24. Cost of SARS: Initial Estimates, ADB % of GDP Hong Kong 4%China, mainland 0.5% Taiwan 1.9% South Korea 0.5% Indonesia 1.4% Singapore 2.3% Thailand 1.6% Malaysia 1.5% Philippines 0.8% US$ billion 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 24
  • 25. Human Cases and Estimated ‘Cost’ of ‘New’ ZoonosesCompiled in WB, 2012BSE UK (1986 to 2009): 15.5 billion US$ (<200 human cases)BSE US (2003 to 2007): 11.0 billion US$ (no human case) 25
  • 26. Burden of Selected ‘Endemic’ Zoonoses (DALYs / 100,000)1 Approximately 1/3 foodborne 26
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  • 28. Cost of Antimicrobial Resistance• Longer hospitalization (11 days)• Increased treatment cost (US$20,000)• Higher case fatality rates (2.2 fold)• In a US-study increased cost of US$10,000 per hospitalized case• General therapy shift to more expensive drugs (even for non-AMR-resistant cases) 28
  • 29. Veterinary Public Health Priorities• Reduce incidence of food-borne diseases and parasite infestations (E.Asia & SE.Asia)• Reduce risk of novel ‘emerging’ zoonoses and detect these early• Promote prudent use of antimicrobials in farm animals 29
  • 30. Response Elements1. A holistic, multidisciplinary approach to agriculture and health research and risk management (horizontal cooperation and coordination).2. Address the root causes of disease burdens / risk (more prevention, less reaction).3. Improved (supra-)national early warning /disease reporting systems and disease control (vertical cooperation and coordination). 30
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