Human health risks at the animal-human interface

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Presented by Joachim Otte and Delia Grace at the Workshop on Asian Livestock: Challenges, opportunities and the Response, Bangkok, 16‐17 August 2012

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Human health risks at the animal-human interface

  1. 1. Asian Livestock Challenges, Opportunities and the Response August 16-17, 2012 Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok
  2. 2. Human Health Risks at the Animal-Human Interface Joachim Otte & Delia Grace 2
  3. 3. Overview• Asia’s growing food demand• Asia’s livestock sector response• Infectious and parasitic disease dynamics• Impacts of zoonotic diseases• Response elements 3
  4. 4. Global Human Population: 2000BC – 2010AD 2050: 9.3 blnBillion 1950: 2.6 bln App. 1850 Source: IUCN/WWF Living Planet Report 4
  5. 5. Meat & Dairy Expenditure Density Source: PPLPI (2008) 5
  6. 6. Income Growth: China & India Income in $2005PPP Allocation of additional $ 100 80 Non-food Other food 60 Fish Milk 40 Meat Fruit Cereals 20 0 Devping Devped 6
  7. 7. Poultry Meat Demand Growth 2000-2030 Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011) 7
  8. 8. Egg Demand Growth 2000-2030Demand growth in kg per sqkm Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011)
  9. 9. Dairy Demand Growth 2000-2030Demand growth in kg per sqkm Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011) 9
  10. 10. Livestock Sector Growth & Development• Growth in total number • Larger farming units of livestock and concentration of• Relative growth in units importance of poultry • Increased use of feed and pigs vs ruminants ‘additives’• Faster turnover / • Stratification of sector increased throughput and vertical integration (intensification) / contract farming – Increased use of high- • Longer, cross-border density feeds supply chains – Genetic selection 10
  11. 11. Growth in Poultry Meat & Poultry Numbers, 1990-2010 East Asia Southeast Asia 11
  12. 12. System Co-existence ‘High Tech.’ ‘Intermediate Tech.’ ‘Low Tech.’ Production Processing Retail 12FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
  13. 13. Ecological Consequences• Land use change leads to habitat fragmentation and growing interfaces• Expansion of irrigated areas provides new habitats for waterborne organisms and insect vectors• Large, housed, rapid-turnover genetically homogenous farmed animal populations and heavy use of antimicrobials provide new eco- system and selective pressures• Complex value chains provide novel transmission pathways 13
  14. 14. Building Bridges, Supporting Livelihoods Pathogen Reservoirs, Interfaces & Dynamics Domestic animal Pathogen dynamics ‘pool’ • Territorial expansion / invasion Wildlife Human • Within species fitness / ‘pool’ ‘pool’ virulence shifts • Species‘jumps’ • Direct exposure / contact • Indirect exposure / contactFAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 14
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. Host & Lineage Origins for the Gene Segments of the 2009 A(H1N1) Virus Source: RJ Garten et al. Science 2009;325:197-201 16
  17. 17. Example: Avian Influenza Virus• Species ‘jump’ – Wild waterfowl domestic poultry humans & cats• Virulence shift – LPAI HPAI (Italy, Holland, Canada, Chile, China, Mexico)• Territorial expansion – HPAIV H5N1 affected > 60 countries on 3 continents and has become endemic in 5 or 6 countries 17
  18. 18. Selection for Virulence • Mode of transmission: – (i) horizontal ; vertical – (ii) indirect ; direct • Host homogeneity • Host cluster connectivity • Within-host strain competition • Vaccination or • Culling • Treatment or Sources: Galvani 2003, 2008FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 18
  19. 19. Antimicrobial Use AM Use USA AM Use(Total 17,500 tonnes) (kg/tonne meat) 19
  20. 20. Resistance of Non-typhoidalSalmonella enterica Isolates to Antibiotics 20
  21. 21. Genetic Exchange Among Bacterial SpeciesFrom Silbergeld et al., 2008 21
  22. 22. Zoonotic Disease Impacts / Costs• Income foregone through reduced economic activity• Cost of precautionary and preventive measures• Cost of control activities• Reduced productivity and welfare in humans and animals through disease burden itself 22
  23. 23. SARS Impact on Global Travel, Hong Kong 23
  24. 24. Cost of SARS: Initial Estimates, ADB % of GDP Hong Kong 4%China, mainland 0.5% Taiwan 1.9% South Korea 0.5% Indonesia 1.4% Singapore 2.3% Thailand 1.6% Malaysia 1.5% Philippines 0.8% US$ billion 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 24
  25. 25. Human Cases and Estimated ‘Cost’ of ‘New’ ZoonosesCompiled in WB, 2012BSE UK (1986 to 2009): 15.5 billion US$ (<200 human cases)BSE US (2003 to 2007): 11.0 billion US$ (no human case) 25
  26. 26. Burden of Selected ‘Endemic’ Zoonoses (DALYs / 100,000)1 Approximately 1/3 foodborne 26
  27. 27. 27
  28. 28. Cost of Antimicrobial Resistance• Longer hospitalization (11 days)• Increased treatment cost (US$20,000)• Higher case fatality rates (2.2 fold)• In a US-study increased cost of US$10,000 per hospitalized case• General therapy shift to more expensive drugs (even for non-AMR-resistant cases) 28
  29. 29. Veterinary Public Health Priorities• Reduce incidence of food-borne diseases and parasite infestations (E.Asia & SE.Asia)• Reduce risk of novel ‘emerging’ zoonoses and detect these early• Promote prudent use of antimicrobials in farm animals 29
  30. 30. Response Elements1. A holistic, multidisciplinary approach to agriculture and health research and risk management (horizontal cooperation and coordination).2. Address the root causes of disease burdens / risk (more prevention, less reaction).3. Improved (supra-)national early warning /disease reporting systems and disease control (vertical cooperation and coordination). 30
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