1. Asian Livestock
Challenges, Opportunities
and the Response
August 16-17, 2012
Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok

2. Human Health Risks at the
Animal-Human Interface
Joachim Otte & Delia Grace
2

3. Overview
• Asia’s growing food
demand
• Asia’s livestock
sector response
• Infectious and
parasitic disease
dynamics
• Impacts of zoonotic
diseases
• Response elements
3

4. Global Human Population:
2000BC – 2010AD
2050: 9.3 bln
Billion
1950: 2.6 bln
App. 1850
Source: IUCN/WWF Living Planet Report
4

5. Meat & Dairy Expenditure
Density
Source: PPLPI (2008)
5

6. Income Growth: China & India
Income in $2005PPP Allocation of additional $
100
80
Non-food
Other food
60 Fish
Milk
40 Meat
Fruit
Cereals
20
0
Dev'ping Dev'ped
6

7. Poultry Meat Demand Growth
2000-2030
Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011)
7

8. Egg Demand Growth
2000-2030
Demand growth in kg per sqkm
Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011)

9. Dairy Demand Growth
2000-2030
Demand growth in kg per sqkm
Source: Robinson and Pozzi (2011)
9

10. Livestock Sector Growth &
Development
• Growth in total number • Larger farming units
of livestock and concentration of
• Relative growth in units
importance of poultry • Increased use of feed
and pigs vs ruminants ‘additives’
• Faster turnover / • Stratification of sector
increased throughput and vertical integration
(intensification) / contract farming
– Increased use of high- • Longer, cross-border
density feeds supply chains
– Genetic selection
10

11. Growth in Poultry Meat & Poultry
Numbers, 1990-2010
East Asia Southeast Asia
11

12. System Co-existence
‘High Tech.’ ‘Intermediate Tech.’ ‘Low Tech.’
Production
Processing
Retail
12
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

13. Ecological Consequences
• Land use change leads to habitat fragmentation
and growing interfaces
• Expansion of irrigated areas provides new
habitats for waterborne organisms and insect
vectors
• Large, housed, rapid-turnover genetically
homogenous farmed animal populations and
heavy use of antimicrobials provide new eco-
system and selective pressures
• Complex value chains provide novel
transmission pathways
13

14. Building Bridges, Supporting Livelihoods
Pathogen Reservoirs,
Interfaces & Dynamics
Domestic
animal Pathogen dynamics
‘pool’
• Territorial expansion /
invasion
Wildlife Human • Within species fitness /
‘pool’ ‘pool’ virulence shifts
• Species‘jumps’
• Direct exposure / contact
• Indirect exposure / contact
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 14

15. 15

16. Host & Lineage Origins for the
Gene Segments of the 2009
A(H1N1) Virus
Source: RJ Garten et al. Science 2009;325:197-201 16

17. Example: Avian Influenza Virus
• Species ‘jump’
– Wild waterfowl domestic poultry humans
& cats
• Virulence shift
– LPAI HPAI (Italy, Holland, Canada, Chile,
China, Mexico)
• Territorial expansion
– HPAIV H5N1 affected > 60 countries on 3
continents and has become endemic in 5 or 6
countries
17

18. Selection for Virulence
• Mode of transmission:
– (i) horizontal ; vertical
– (ii) indirect ; direct
• Host homogeneity
• Host cluster connectivity
• Within-host strain
competition
• Vaccination or
• Culling
• Treatment or
Sources: Galvani 2003, 2008
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 18

19. Antimicrobial Use
AM Use USA AM Use
(Total 17,500 tonnes) (kg/tonne meat)
19

20. Resistance of Non-typhoidal
Salmonella enterica Isolates to
Antibiotics
20

21. Genetic Exchange Among
Bacterial Species
From Silbergeld et al., 2008 21

22. Zoonotic Disease Impacts /
Costs
• Income foregone through reduced
economic activity
• Cost of precautionary and preventive
measures
• Cost of control activities
• Reduced productivity and welfare in
humans and animals through disease
burden itself
22

23. SARS Impact on Global
Travel, Hong Kong
23

24. Cost of SARS: Initial Estimates,
ADB
% of GDP
Hong Kong 4%
China, mainland 0.5%
Taiwan 1.9%
South Korea 0.5%
Indonesia 1.4%
Singapore 2.3%
Thailand 1.6%
Malaysia 1.5%
Philippines 0.8% US$ billion
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
24

25. Human Cases and Estimated
‘Cost’ of ‘New’ Zoonoses
Compiled in WB, 2012
BSE UK (1986 to 2009): 15.5 billion US$ (<200 human cases)
BSE US (2003 to 2007): 11.0 billion US$ (no human case)
25

26. Burden of Selected ‘Endemic’
Zoonoses (DALYs / 100,000)
1 Approximately 1/3 foodborne
26

27. 27

28. Cost of Antimicrobial
Resistance
• Longer hospitalization (11 days)
• Increased treatment cost (US$20,000)
• Higher case fatality rates (2.2 fold)
• In a US-study increased cost of
US$10,000 per hospitalized case
• General therapy shift to more expensive
drugs (even for non-AMR-resistant cases)
28

29. Veterinary Public Health
Priorities
• Reduce incidence of food-borne diseases
and parasite infestations (E.Asia &
SE.Asia)
• Reduce risk of novel ‘emerging’ zoonoses
and detect these early
• Promote prudent use of antimicrobials in
farm animals
29

30. Response Elements
1. A holistic, multidisciplinary approach to
agriculture and health research and risk
management (horizontal cooperation and
coordination).
2. Address the root causes of disease burdens
/ risk (more prevention, less reaction).
3. Improved (supra-)national early warning
/disease reporting systems and disease
control (vertical cooperation and
coordination).
30

31. 31