Colin GREEN, Christophe VIAVATTENE Middlesex University, United Kingdom

1. The role of economics in making
“better”economics
The role of
sustainable flood risk
management decisions
in making better sustainable flood risk management decisions
C. Green 1, C. Viavattene 2
1FHRC / Middlesex University, London, UK. colin.green.fhrc@gmail.com
2FHRC / Middlesex University, London, UK. c.viavattene@mdx.ac.uk
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

2. • What is sustainable flood risk
management? Adapting to and modifying variability within
the wider context of IWRM
• What is „better‟? More with less: well-being, resilience,
adaptive, learning
• What is a „decision‟? Conflict + uncertainty;
stakeholders decide what is the best available course of action: how
to attempt to change the future
• What is „economics‟? Advising on the consequences to
the economy from interventions in different ways at different points
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

3. Well-being
• “Material living standards (income, consumption
and wealth);
• Health;
• Education;
• Personal activities including work
• Political voice and governance;
• Social connections and relationships;
• Environment (present and future conditions);
• Insecurity, of an economic as well as a physical
nature.”
Stiglitz et al. (2009) Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social
Progress, Paris: Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene
fhrc

4. reality
interpretation
decision
social
relationships
precipitation
runoff
minewater
pollutants resource
Land Connected groundwater
development
Erosive material
economy
pollutants
Groundwater recharge river
land Flood deposition of pollutants
deposition
environment well-being
Erosive material
Flood deposition
floods
money
Deposition in channel economy
Channel movement
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

5. Flooding is a process, not a state
10.00 floods
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00 availability
flow
0.00 demand
1
22
43
64
85
106
127
148
169
190
211
232
253
274
295
316
337
358
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
droughts
-8.00
month
Managing variability, not flooding and droughts
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene
fhrc

6. Energy – endothermic or
exothermic reaction
Input flows: resources, Desired outputs
labour
Transformations governed
by the laws of physics,
chemistry and biology
wastes
The resource economy
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

7. Floods as a shock to
resource the system
economy
environment well-being
money
economy
Well-being
Well-being
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene
time time

8. Going from book-keeping to the analysis of
the economic consequences
Proportional loss curves - residential Well-being
1.00
D
0.90
A
0.80
0.70
Rijkswaterstaat
Trajectory prior to flood
C
0.60 UK
China
%
0.50 Australlia
USA
0.40 France CEPRI
0.30
B
0.20
0.10
0.00
0
1
2
3
0.5
1.5
2.5
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
flood
depth
time
Direct damages
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

9. Energy – endothermic or
The transformational exothermic reaction
economy • Iron
Fe2O3(s) + 3CO(g) 2Fe(s) + 3CO2(g)
Input flows: resources, Desired outputs • Ammonia
labour
N2(g) + 3H2(g) ↔ 2NH3(g) ΔHӨ = -92kJ
(+ suitable catalyst, temp of 600oC, and pressure of 200 atmospheres)
Transformations governed
by the laws of physics,
chemistry and biology
wastes
flood Negative Default on
savings mortgages
flooded
Banks
households loans
Share price
falls; fall in
Default on
claims loan
loans
capacity Pension funds
Reduced Change in payment on
employment; consumption pattern Fall in claims
reduced investment
Consumers income capacity
savings available for
consumption
claims
Commerce and industry flooded Insurance
investment payment on Share price
businesses claims falls
sales
Falls in
share prices
Stocks and shares
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

10. G
B
D
C
A
H
F
I
E
m=it-1a.jt-1b.kt-1c (a+b+c =1) three inputs to each node
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

11. 6
5
A
4 B
C
D
3 E
F
G
2 H
Final value as proportion of undisturbed value
I
1
0.98
00.96
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
0.94 A
B
0.92 C
0.90 D
6
E
0.88 F
5
0.86 G
H A
0.84
4 I B
C
0.82
D
0.80 3 E
F
A B C D E F G H I
G
2 H
I
1
Shock of -0.5 at time 40 to A
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101

12. Either reduce shock or enhance recovery
Well-being
D
A
Trajectory prior to flood
C
B
flood
time
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene
Baseline trajectory enhanced because a flood plain

13. Change?
• Where?
• In what?
• By whom?
• How?
Power is the capacity to induce change
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

14. Societal objectives
rules
Resources
sustainably and
power
effectively
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

15. IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

16. Characteristics of power
• Domains of power
• Components of power
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

17. % adopting innovation Late
adapters
Early
adapters
time
The S shaped curve of innovation diffusion
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene

18. Where do we need to go from
here?
• Agent based modelling
• How do shocks propagate through the
money economy?
• Analysis of power
Acknowledgments
The work described in this presentation was supported by the European Community‟s Seventh
Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of the Integrated Project CONHAZ,
Contract 244159 and the EPI-WATER project, Contract 265213.
We thank all our partners from the CONHAZ and from the EPI-WATER projects for their contribution in
this research.
IDRC Davos 2012 - C. Green & C. Viavattene