5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Paul Scherrer Institut
Rebecca Lordan, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr
Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates for Individual OECD
Countries Caused by Accidents in the Oil Energy Chain
5th IDRC Conference, Davos, Switzerland
August 24-28, 2014
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland
www.grforum.org

2. Motivati
on
Exploration and Extraction Refining
Wikipedia.or
g
Deepwater Horizon (2010, USA)
Refinery Fire (2006, Lithuania)
NY Times
Import Related Accidents in the Oil Chain
Transportation: Pipelines
Telegraph.co.
uk
Oilspillsolutions.or
g
Pipeline Explosion (2005, Nigeria)
Transportation: Ships
Transportation: Trains
Emsnews..com
Oil Tanker Fire (1983, South Africa) Oil Train Explosion (2013, Canada)
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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3. Motivation
Oil Production in OECD and Non-OECD Countries:
OECD has fewer accidents associated with
oil production than Non-OECD nations.
Burgherr et al. “Comparative Risk Assessment of Severe
Accidents in the Energy Sector.” Energy Policy (2014)
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1978-2008
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Oil Production (KT)
Year
OECD Production Non-OECD Production
Oil Consumption in OECD and Non-OECD Countries:
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1978-2008
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Oil Consumption (KT)
Year
OECD Oil Consumption (KT) Non-OECD Consumption (KT)
How do the national fatality rates
for OECD countries change
when we make adjustments for
oil imports?
Lordan et al.: Import-5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Adjusted Fatality Rates
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4. Data
ENSAD: Oil
Chain Accidents
Exploration
and Extraction
Refining
Transportation
Oil-price.
net
Wikipedia.o
rg
Themasafety.eu
Import-Related Stages
Severe Accidents must meet 1 of 7 criteria:
At least 5 fatalities or
At least 10 injuries or
At least 200 evacuees or
Extensive ban on consumption of food or
Releases of hydrocarbons exceeding 10,000t or
International Energy Agency:
Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2 or
Oil Information Statistics
Economic loss of at least 5 million USD(2000) (Burgherr & Hirschberg, 2008).
• OECD Imports
• OECD Exports
• World Oil Statistics
Lordan et al.: Import-5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Adjusted Fatality Rates
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5. Methodology
Energy-related Severe
Accident Database
• Aggregate Import-Related
Fatalities
• Aggregate Domestic Production
Fatalities
International Energy Agency
Oil Statistics Database
• Establish Net - Trade Flows
Group Fatality Rate
Import Fatality Rate
Total Import-Adjusted Fatality Rate
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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6. Results
• The number of severe accidents is
increasing in the non-OECD and
decreasing in OECD
• The average annual fatality rate in
the OECD is lower than in the non-
OECD
• 5 annual fatality rates patterns
emerge according to the source of
oil: domestic, OECD imported and
non-OECD imported
• OECD countries import the majority
of their fatality rate from the non-
OECD
Lordan et al.: Import-5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Adjusted Fatality Rates
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7. Results: Net Exporters
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
Mexico
-3.E-04 -2.E-04 -1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate (fatalities/KT)
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Other countries following this pattern: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, United
Kingdom
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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8. Results: Domestic Influences
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Turkey
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate (fatalities/KT)
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Greece, Italy, Japan
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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9. Results: Non-OECD Dominated
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
Poland
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate (fatalities/KT)
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Austria, Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, New Zealand, Slovak Republic
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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10. Results: OECD Influenced
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Sweden
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate (fatalities/KT)
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Finland, Ireland, Switzerland
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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11. Results: Multiple Influences
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
United States of America
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate (fatalities/KT)
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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12. Results: Spatial Clusters
Net Exporters
OECD Influenced
Multiple Influences
Non-OECD Dominated Influenced
Domestic Influence
Clustered import-adjusted fatality rate
patterns are related to trade
relationships.
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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13. Conclusions
• Research Question: How do the fatality rates for OECD countries change
when we make adjustments for oil imports to make a “consumption based”
fatality rate?
• OECD national fatalities rates increase when adjust for imports, which normal
accounting methods would not attribute to OECD
• Increases mostly due to non-OECD imports
• 5 distinct patterns emerge that are temporally and spatially clustered
• Over time we do not observe countries changing trading relationships, despite
poor safety standards and many incidents, indicating political constraints,
potentially a lack of awareness, a lack of alternatives or a lack of feeling of
responsibility
• Contribution to Disaster Risk Reduction
• Consumption based accounting with an Import-Adjusted Fatality Rate helps
spread awareness of the costs of oil production, and encourages greater efforts
to reduce/prevent accidents
• Provides “proof” and pressure for policy interventions that are necessary to stop
the increase in the number of accidents occurring in the non-OECD countries
(e.g. stricter regulations or enforcement)
• United States Oil Pollution Act 1990: contingency planning, stricter
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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regulations, punitive measures for non-compliance

14. Thank you for your attention!
Questions?
Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI)
Technology Assessment Group (TAG)
http://www.psi.ch/ta
rebecca.lordan@psi.ch
Energy Policy Institute at Chicago
http://www.epic.uchicago.edu
rlordan@uchicago.edu
Lordan et al.: Import-5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Adjusted Fatality Rates
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15. Back Up Slides
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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16. Results: Country Groups
OECD Nations Are Divided Into 5 Import Fatality Rate Groups
Net Exporters: The Net Exporters pattern is characterized by multiple years
negative fatality rates. The negative fatality rate indicates that the country is
importing and re-exporting oil with the same country, but re-exporting more than it
imports, or that it is only exporting to that country.
Domestic Influence: Countries categorized as “Domestic Influence” have
significant contributions to the annual fatality rate coming from domestic production
over the 30 year period. These countries also tend to import a significant amount
from non-OECD countries rather than the OECD.
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: The Non-OECD Dominated pattern has
countries in which the vast majority – if not the entirety – of their fatality rates are
imported from the non-OECD.
OECD Influenced: Countries with OECD influenced fatality rates import a
significant amount of the annual fatality rate from the OECD, indicated with the red
bars entering positively in the graph.
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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Multiple Influences: Countries in the “Multiple Influences” category have annual

17. Methodology
1) Calculate percentage exports between OECD and non-OECD countries
2) Aggregate severe-accident fatalities from each country in ENSAD
3) Calculate OECD and Non-OECD group fatality rates
4) Calculate Import Fatality Rate for each OECD Country
5) Calculate Total Fatality Rate for each OECD country
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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18. Back Up Slides
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
Year
-0.0001 0 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006 0.0007
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Net Exporters: Australia
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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19. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-2.E-04 -1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Net Exporters: Canada
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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20. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Net Exporters: Denmark
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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21. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-2.E-03 -2.E-03 -1.E-03 -8.E-04 -3.E-04 2.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Net Exporters: Norway
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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22. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-3.E-04 -2.E-04 -1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Net Exporters: United Kingdom
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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23. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: Austria
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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24. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: Chile
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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25. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: Czech Republic
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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26. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-5.E-05 0.E+00 5.E-05 1.E-04 2.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 4.E-04
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: Hungary
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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27. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: Korea
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
2

28. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: New Zealand
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
2

29. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Non-OECD Dominated Influence: Slovak Republic
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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30. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Domestic Influence: Greece
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
3

31. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
Year
-1.E-04 0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Domestic Influence: Italy
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
3

32. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Domestic Influence: Japan
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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33. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.00E+00 5.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.50E-04 2.00E-04 2.50E-04 3.00E-04 3.50E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
OECD Influenced: Finland
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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34. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-03 2.E-03 3.E-03 4.E-03 5.E-03 6.E-03 7.E-03
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
OECD Influenced: Ireland
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
3

35. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
OECD Influenced: Switzerland
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
3

36. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Multiple Influences: Belgium
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
3

37. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Multiple Influences: France
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
3

38. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Multiple Influences: Germany
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
3

39. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Multiple Influences: Netherlands
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
4

40. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04 8.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Multiple Influences: Portugal
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
4

41. Back Up Slides
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
0.E+00 1.E-04 2.E-04 3.E-04 4.E-04 5.E-04 6.E-04 7.E-04
Annual Fatality Rate
Domestic Production Imported From OECD Imported From non-OECD
Multiple Influences: Spain
Year
5th IDRC Conference, 24-28 August 2014, Davos Switzerland Lordan et al.: Import-Adjusted Fatality Rates
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