The document discusses several trends and technologies that could impact the future of higher education:
1. Emerging technologies like virtual and augmented reality, learning analytics, and artificial intelligence could facilitate new forms of distance learning and personalized education over the next 10-20 years.
2. Job disruption from automation raises questions about how education can prepare students for new types of work and promote equal access to opportunities.
3. Issues like funding, climate change impacts, and the relationship between universities and governments will influence how higher education is structured and delivered politically and economically in the coming decades.
Influencing policy (training slides from Fast Track Impact)
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The Future of Higher Education in the Digital Era
1. The future of higher education
in the digital era
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2. Can we predict the future?
⢠Futurist predictions in 1997 book for the year 2025
â Roughly 66% accuracy for âon trackâ predictions
â Similar to 68% accuracy from futurists in 1967
predicting 30 years later
Hines, A. World Future
Review. 2009
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3. What makes a good futurist?
Forecast Accuracy
Experience
(Ability)
Employer size
(Resources)
Number of firms and
industries followed
(Complexity)
Clement, M.B. Journal of
Accounting and Economics. 1999
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4. What makes a good futurist?
⢠The best forecasters of world politics:
â Scored higher on intelligence and political knowledge
â More open-minded cognitive styles
â Benefited from probability training
â Profited from better working environments & teams
â Spent more time deliberating and updating forecasts
Mellers, B. et al. Journal of
Experimental Psychology:
Applied. 2015
5. What makes a good futurist?
⢠Exceptionalism lies in quantitative trend forecasting
â Kurzweilâs Law of Accelerating Returns
â Certain kinds of progress are exponential, not linear
http://bit.ly/KurzweilBigThink
6. What do futurists do?
⢠Illustration by David Plunkert
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7. Analytical Framework for Futurism
⢠Framing
â Whatâs happening right now?
⢠Scanning
â What do the trends tell us about tomorrow?
⢠Describing
â What are some potential futures?
⢠Visioning
â How do we want to shape the future?
⢠Planning
â What is our roadmap for shaping the future?
http://profuturists.org/futurists
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8. Analytical Framework for Futurism
⢠Framing
â Whatâs happening right now?
⢠Scanning
â What do the trends tell us about tomorrow?
⢠Describing
â What are some potential futures?
⢠Visioning
â How do we want to shape the future?
⢠Planning
â What is our roadmap for shaping the future?
http://profuturists.org/futurists
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9. Framing - Will the change matter?
⢠Pew Research Center survey of 1,021 âInternet expertsâ
on the future of higher education
http://bit.ly/FutureHighEd
11. Environmental Scanning with STEEP
⢠STEEP =
âSociety
âTechnology
âEnvironmental
âEconomy
âPolitical
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12. Society
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Image: http://blog.arkieva.com/my-network-design-is-not-
your-network-design/
13. Society â massification continues
⢠Demand for higher education is rising
Ho Mok, et al. Higher education
governance in crisis: a critical
reflection on the massification of
higher education, graduate
employment and social mobility.
Journal of Education and Work. 2015
http://bit.ly/EnviroScan
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14. Society â Vocational focus for learning
⢠âNow, this model of liberal arts education is under threat.
Students come to college hell-bent on learning
something that will make them employable.â
⢠âThis is an understandable response to the economic
uncertainties of our age, and to the extraordinary cost of
an education [âŚ].â
⢠âWhether eighteen-year-olds are experiencing this
economic anxiety themselves, or whether it is being
hammered into them by their parents, I donât know.â
http://bit.ly/whatishigheredfor
15. Society â Teaching & research
⢠Are teaching and research compatible?
http://bit.ly/CAPsurvey2007
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16. Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome
⢠ââŚAmerican higher education has become what,
in the business world, would be called a mature
enterprise: increasingly risk averse, at times self-
satisfied, and unduly expensive.â
⢠âWithout serious self-examination and reform,
institutions of higher education risk falling into the
same trap [as other failed industries], seeing
their market share substantially reduced and
their services increasingly characterized by
obsolescence.â
Spellings Report.
US Department of
Education. 2006
http://bit.ly/SpellingsReport
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17. Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome
⢠âIt is harder to innovate in a mature enterprise.â
White, et al. Innovations in
Higher Education: Implications
for the Future. New Directions
for Higher Education
http://bit.ly/NewInnovationsHigherEd
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18. Society - Questions
⢠Will higher education innovate or lose to competitors?
⢠Will demand for higher education continue to rise?
⢠Will certain countries choose to change the relationship
between teaching and research?
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19. Technology
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Image: http://sdtimes.com/idcs-top-10-technology-predictions-2015/
20. Technology â Open Education
⢠Open educational resources (1-5 years)
â Students need lower cost content
â Industry needs to get more flexible with product offerings
â Intellectual property law needs to progress
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
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21. Technology â 3D Printing
⢠3D Printing (1-5 years)
â New options for personalization reduce demand for
non-customized in-store goods
â Gateway to more sustainable production
â Become a valuable tool (or toolmaker) for researchers
across fields
http://bit.ly/3Dprintfuture
Image: http://bit.ly/1i9OgbZ
22. Technology â Virtual Reality
⢠Virtual and augmented reality (1-5 years)
â Provided viable distance-learning options
â Help scale delivery of classroom experiences
â By 2030s, âvirtual reality will begin to feel 100% realâ
http://bit.ly/KurzweilPredicts
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23. Technology - Gamification
⢠Gamification in pedagogy (5-10 years)
â âGamification can motivate students to engage in the
classroom, give teachers better tools to guide and reward
students, and get students to bring their full selves to the
pursuit of learning.â
â âIt makes sense to try to utilize [game] concepts to
improve education. But if we want to make lasting
significant changes, we have to reinvent the whole
system.â â Prof. Atsusi Hirumi
http://bit.ly/EduGamification
Lee and Hammer. Academic
Exchange Quarterly. 2011
Firth. Pegasus: The Magazine of the
University of Central Florida. 2015
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24. Technology â Modular Curricula
⢠Personalized curricula, modularization &
hybrid degrees (5-10 years)
â Help students adapt to changes in job
market signals
â Modularizing curricula provides clearer
metrics for employers with unique needs
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
http://bit.ly/FastCompanyFuture
Hullinger, J. This is
the future of college.
Fast Company. 2015
25. Technology â Analytics
⢠Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)
â âThese tools offer innovative ways to predict student
success, measure achievement of learning outcomes,
and drive improvements in admissions, pedagogy,
and student support services.â
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
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Image: http://bit.ly/1LUPq4G
26. Technology â Analytics
⢠Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)
â âAnd newer endeavors [âŚ] can alert students to toxic
course combinations and provide an early warnings of
at-risk behavior to faculty, advisers, and the students
themselves.â
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Image: http://bit.ly/1LUPq4G
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27. Technology - Biometrics
⢠Biometrically-verified online identity systems (5-10 years)
â Physical traits & behavioural signs inform learning analytics
â Users want to protect valuable digital identities
â No more passwords
Image: http://bit.ly/1K3Qdg0
28. Technology â Global Brain (AI-enabled)
⢠Collective knowledge mapping with Global Brain (10-20 years)
â Mapping known vs. unknown reveals opportunities
â Contributions factor into learning analytics
â Human level intelligence by 2029, predicts Kurzweil
OâReilly, T. Towards
a Global Brain.
GreenBiz.com
http://bit.ly/GlobalBrainTim
http://bit.ly/KurzweilAIprediction
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29. Technology - Questions
⢠How will these technologies facilitate distance learning?
⢠In what areas of education will distance learning
become the norm?
⢠Will new teaching technologies allow fewer teachers to
engage with more students?
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31. Environmental â Climate Change
⢠â⌠things will start going haywire in the tropics at
around the year 2020, and in [places further from the
equator] around 2047.â
Eric Zuesse, Huffington Post, about:
Mora, C. et al. The Projected timing of climate departure from
recent variability. 2013
32. Environmental â Climate Change
⢠Higher Ed Climate Adaptation Committee findings:
â1. Have a critical role to play in preparing society to adapt
to the impacts of climate disruption by providing research
and education around adaption strategies and science.â
â7. Should aim to identify adaptation strategies that also
contribute to mitigation efforts.â
http://bit.ly/ClimateCommitment
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33. Environmental â Questions
⢠Could restrictions on energy usage discourage
displacement and encourage online learning?
⢠Will the economic impacts of climate change reduce
enrollment capacity for traditional institutions?
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34. Economy
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Image:
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/06/news/economy/economy-
improving/
35. Economy â The Future of Work
⢠Disruptions that could radically change the future of work
StĂśrmer, et al. The
future of Work: Jobs
and Skills in 2030.
http://bit.ly/FutureOfWork2030
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36. Economy - Technological Job
Displacement
⢠âWill networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more
jobs than they have created by 2025?â
â Nearly 2,000 experts surveyed:
48%
YES
52%
NO
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
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37. Economy - Technological Job
Displacement
⢠âWill networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more
jobs than they have created by 2025?â
â Team NO major arguments:
⢠Tech displaces some work while creating more
⢠We invent new types of work
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
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38. Economy - Technological Job
Displacement
⢠âWill networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more
jobs than they have created by 2025?â
â Team NO major arguments:
⢠Tech displaces some work while creating more
⢠We invent new types of work
â Team YES major arguments:
⢠Blue-collar work first, then white-collar
⢠Might create new jobs, but promote inequality
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
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39. Economy - Technological Job
Displacement
⢠âWill networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more
jobs than they have created by 2025?â
â Both teams agree:
⢠Our education system is not preparing workers!
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
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40. Economy - Technological Job
Displacement
⢠âWe may lose as much as 25% of all
âsimpleâ jobs because of smart
machines, AI, robotics and
automation, e.g., data input clerks,
analysts (some), check-out clerks, cab
drivers, etc. In the next 25 years, that
loss may be as much as 50% of all
jobs as âmachinesâ get even better.â
Gerd Leonhard (@gleonhard)in
Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends)
Shift 2020
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41. Economy â Zero Hour Contracts
⢠Flexible contracts with few guarantees for the employee
⢠Huge benefits for employer, fewer for employee
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42. Economy - Questions
⢠How will job loss due to automation compete with job
creation?
⢠Will zero-hour contracts receive government regulations
to prevent employee abuses?
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47. Politics â Incentivize Student Outcomes
⢠Should university funding be linked to lifetime career
outcome for graduates?
â âThe Americaâs College Promise (ACP) proposal in
the Presidentâs budget would encourage community
colleges to strengthen their programs and increase
the number of students who graduate by
adopting promising and evidence-based institutional
reforms and innovative practices to improve
student outcomes.â
http://bit.ly/HigherEdSuccess
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48. Politics - Questions
⢠How will governments choose to fund education in the
future?
⢠What legislative decisions will governments make that
affect higher education governance?
⢠Will politicians move to protect flexible working
situations and prevent abuses of zero-hour contracts?
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49. Models for future higher education
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Image:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnebersole/2014/01/13/top-
issues-facing-higher-education-in-2014/
50. Models for future higher education
⢠Different ways to get a bachelorâs
â Three-year and accelerated bachelors
â Multiple education providers
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
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51. Models for future higher education
⢠The bare-bones University
â Lower-cost, online education with focus on teaching
â Limited enrollment related to local workforce needs
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
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52. Models for future higher education
⢠Experimental models
â Online-only
â Flipped classrooms
â Intership-focused
â Minimalist or virtual campuses
â Entrepreneurial universities
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
Etzkowitz, et al. The future of the
university an the university of the
future: evolution of ivory tower to
entrepreneurial paradigm.
Research Policy. 2000
http://bit.ly/EntrepreneurialUnis
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53. Models for future higher education
⢠Corporate Universities
â Deloitte, Disney, Motorola, etc. universities
â Displace traditional education with job focus
â Longer term investment in specialized employees
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
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54. Models for future higher education
Brint. Creating the Future:
âNew Directionsâin
American Research
Universities. Minerva. 2005
http://bit.ly/CreatingTheFuture
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55. Two scenarios for the future
Image by Studio Pei-Zhu
and Slab Architechture
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56. Future scenarios â the constants
⢠Climate change increases price of displacement
â Delocalized, stay in your network to study
⢠Vocational focus continues due to uncertain job markets
â Modular education offers adaptability (employablility)
⢠More diverse funding for institutions, researchers, students
â Student sponsors, KickStarter research, brand giving
games
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57. Undergrad education supply â
⢠Undergrad education supply increases, dropping price
â Necessity for undergraduate degree increases for most jobs
â Universal undergrad experience for discovery and growth
â Local organizations offer simulated âcampus experienceâ
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58. Undergrad education supply â
⢠Undergrad education supply increases, dropping price
â Necessity for undergraduate degree increases for most jobs
â Universal undergrad experience for discovery and growth
â Local organizations offer simulated âcampus experienceâ
⢠Massification continues, leading to mega institutions for
post-grad research and entrepreneurship
â Teaching & research more closely linked for postgrads
â Extreme competition for fewer subsidized positions
â More opportunities for top performers to access education
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59. Undergrad education supply â
⢠Undergrad education supply decreases, increasing price
â Vocational schooling or certification rises in popularity
â Higher education restricted to young, top performers or rich
â Local organizations offer simulated âcampus experienceâ
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60. Undergrad education supply â
⢠Undergrad education supply decreases, increasing price
â Vocational schooling or certification rises in popularity
â Higher education restricted to young, top performers or rich
â Local organizations offer simulated âcampus experienceâ
⢠Massification trend stops, leading to expensive mega
institutions for undergrad and postgrad education
â Teaching and research linked for all students in system
â Emphasis on student recruiting and retention due to cost
â Rising inequity in access to education due to cost
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61. Which future will you shape?
Image by Greg Githens:
http://bit.ly/PxFourFuturism
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