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Global Education Futures Agenda by Pavel Luksha & Dmitry Peskov

The Global Education Futures Agenda is the result of four years of work that involved thousands of educational experts in Russia and worldwide. This presentation provides some of the key schemes of the Foresight Report published in early 2014, one of the most comprehensive reports on the future of education up to date,

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Global Education Futures Agenda by Pavel Luksha & Dmitry Peskov

  1. 1. Global Education Futures Agenda Russian Education Foresight Initiative Pavel Luksha & Dmitry Peskov RF Group 2010-2013
  2. 2. Our work on charting the future of education 2010: first Russian education foresight at Educamp 2010 2011: first Russian ‘map of the future of education’ 2012: first Russian foresight on higher education perspectives 2012-13: first Russian skills foresight across 19 industries providing new requirements for school & university curriculum based on demand of industries [Report + Navigator through jobs of the future + interactive career orientation tool + career-orientation games for high school students] 2013: first version of the Report on Global Education Futures Agenda • map of the future of education [in Russian & English] • iPad & online application [in Russian, English TBD] • 150-pages comprehensive report [in Russian & English & Chinese]
  3. 3. Education Futures 2035 Map: 200+ trends, technologies & educational formats that will inform global education agenda
  4. 4. Focus of the Report Our focus: the cutting edge of educational practices and the new global architecture of education Less developed nations, ca. 40% of the world’s population (Africa, Latin America, Central Asia) As a rule, global education reports originate in ‘equalization of opportunities’ or ‘helping the laggards’ standpoint Early industrialized Formation of the basic system (early industrial logic). Basic schooling, parochial schools. Technical College. Higher education for the elite. Developed nations, ca. 15% of the world’s population (OECD countries) Emerging nations, ca. 45% of the world’s population (China, India, the Arab World, SEA) Industrialized Late-/post-industrialized Creation of integrated national systems (the logic of developed industrialism). Mass schooling. Special and technical schools. Mass higher education, “Big universities”. Knowledge-focused education. Qualifications approach. Formation of educational sphere (early post-industrial logic). New teaching approaches. Focus on skills & competencies. Projectand activity-based education. Meta-competency education. This group is characterized by: • being at, or near, technological frontier, incl. ICT • ‘first world’ problems • “encumbrances” (developed social institutions of the industrial past become liabilities or burden)
  5. 5. Major challenges forcing the search for new models of education Digital technologies Education tech start-ups Hypercompetition & emergence of new industries Education as an asset Challenges of consumer society Changing models of knowledge creation, preservation and transmission. Changes in achievement recording and evaluation / assessment procedures. Changes in the process of managing personal development trajectory. Changes in the management of educational institutions, etc. The new & rapidly growing market of solutions with potential to complement or even replace traditional formats of industrial education Demand for educational and research pragmatics Requirements for the new content and new educational formats: (a) maximum flexibility & development of meta-professional competences, and (b) superfast education and narrow-focused competence development The development of a variety of investment models in education (including financial investment models). Demand for quality control and transparency of education outcomes. Trend: growing share of students with a reduced motivation for education (when basic needs are satisfied). Counter-trend: growing proportion of ‘independent learners’ demanding ‘learning their own way’.
  6. 6. Defining Education We see education as an institutionalized process of individual development support from birth to death. Formalized educational institutions are responsible for only a fraction of this process. Personalised Pragmatic Team education as a development tool for corporations, NGOs, state institutions, communities etc. Early development (family, kindergarten) Formal education during the first trimester of life (school & university) Socialization (in family and in society) Further development of professional competency Elderly adaptation Acquiring new knowledge as a hobby or a change of career track Development of personal traits and self-development Education as a tool that helps solve family problems and overcome crises (incl. parent education) -1… human life cycle …100+
  7. 7. Stakeholders involved in discussions of the future of education Different stakeholder positions mean different visions of future education INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS (as an employer and as a seller) Education for complete life cycle STATE FAMILY COMMUNITIES (FORMAL AND INFORMAL)
  8. 8. Transformation pressures on education systems from the various stakeholders New global standards and global competition pressures Intra-system innovators (innovative teachers etc.) New content and organizational forms of education New requests from local consumers (families, business, non-profit organizations, state) Extra-system innovators (ed tech startups etc.)
  9. 9. Presupposition: Where the changes come from Major trends: • Development of new technologies • Changes in political & economic environment • Social & cultural transformations Infrastructure of body: medicine & fitness Infrastructure of communication: ICT New solutions in education Infrastructure of production & consumption: finance Transformation of traditional institutions Key ‘infrastructures’ of society Aspects of education: • Knowledge acquisition & creation of new knowledge • Socialization, skills development, personal growth • Recording / evaluation of progress & achievements
  10. 10. Background: some technologies influencing the transformation of education ‘Brain fitness’ technologies New psycho-pharm (2020-) Cognitive Revolution HTTP 2.0: Thought transfer protocol (2025) Mass-market neurointerfaces ‘New authencity’ (2015-2025) Digitization & Mobility Full scale virtual worlds for work & play BigData analysis of everyday behavioral patterns Widespread blended AR/VR reality in large cities Semantic translation engines (2019) Domination of Internet of things ‘Strong’ artificial intelligence (also used in virtual worlds) (2027) Automation of Intellectual Routines 2013 2016 2025 2035
  11. 11. Background: major economic/ political/ social/ cultural issues Scenario factors: - The future of globalization - The future of states - The role of Asia Rebuilding industries through new waves of technology innovation (IoT, new materials & 3d-print, biotech, new energy etc.) Shift in models of business organization and industry management (open innovation, hybrid organizations & network economies, DIY industries) Global greening of cities & industries Shift in employment patterns and lifestyles (displaced workers, new eldery, gaming generations, authenticity seekers) New financial architecture & reputation economy Shift in patterns of family organization & childhood 2013 2016 2025 2035
  12. 12. Globalization of education: Enter the МOOCs Background - Global competition for markets and resulting global talent hunt - Internet as a factor on ‘cultural homogenization’ - spreading of international standards in education (Bachelor/Master, PhD, tenure-track contracts) Strengthening of ‘Educational Imperialism’ (an outcome of ‘BillionStudent University’ models) MOOCs- based education: the rise of transnational / trans-boundary models of qualifications and competencies Some states responding with ‘educational sovereignty’ (dead end?) Global ‘great talent vacuum-cleaner’ and ‘TNC citizenship’ Scenario factor: globalization or regionalization? 2013 2016 2022 Global education architecture: W(E)TO or Talent Kyoto protocol? 2030
  13. 13. Personalization: from business drive to self-managed education Business as employer: achievement / skill recognition: • • • Online diplomas and portfolios for everyone Widespread online competence certificates & achievement badges Life-long ‘competency diplomas’ Business as investor: ‘talent hunt’ & Hollywood / NHL model • From Upstart to “man-llionaires” and new pension funds • Insurance plans in education for learners & talent investors Demand to self-manage educational content for max personal capitalization • Libraries of educational content and trajectories. ‘Your Hero Path’ to replace standard degrees as the main ‘educational commodity’ • Trajectories tailored by mentor networks • 24/7 artificial tutors (growing from ‘trajectory libraries’). Climax: “Diamond Age Primer” Demand for authenticity: individualized life-long learning as an integral part of your life cycle (incl. support in personal cirsis & transformation) 2013 2016 2022 2030
  14. 14. Co-operation: from ‘team hunt’ to CoP-centered learning Background & current trends - Team education demand from corporate & state players - Startup-education in acceleration - ‘McKinsey as university’ model: producing teams & networks as a byproduct of business activities 2013 Demand for teams from communities of practice (CoP) Distributed / online CoPs become a new educational milieu (also: integrate with MOOCs) New universities as students’ holdings (revival of the medieval university model within growing CoPs) Family demand for re-integration through ‘team education’ Educational opportunities fair: participate in projects or games for cash, reputation, experience & social impact 2016 2022 2030
  15. 15. Gamification: from education games to the totality of gaming Driver: technologies leading towards postscarcity economy Background - MMORPG is a mass phenomenon but little recognized & used in education - the game culture becomes a norm across generations Recognition of gaming: - Routine use of games for project-based learning / progress & final testing - MMORPG achievements in CVs City as a huge simulator: from ‘child-friendly cities’ to ‘city games for all ages’ ‘Childhood-long games’: super-long transmedia games that adjust content & difficulty with age Behavior correction simulators (biofeedback, AR). Virtual jail: overcoming social alienation of delinquents using virtual simulators Gradual gamification of life: real life achievements recognized through game mechanics in fitness, travel & beyond 2013 2016 2022 ‘Psychodrama worlds’ gaming in psychotherapy Working & living in blended virtual + real worlds becomes the life standard in OECD Game interfaces become the standard workspace environment ‘Homo Ludens’ a social norm 2030
  16. 16. Science: from BigData to live knowledge models Background - Exponential growth and ‘decay’ of knowledge - Discipline gaps: the ‘Tower of Babel’ effect - Growing demand for ‘knowledge-in-practice’ ‘Prosthetics’ of knowledge: rebuilding fundamental research with semantic technologies; researcher community communication in digital milieu (arXiv & Wiki as prototypes) Science epistemology reconsidered with ICT: BigData in science (Grey’s 4th paradigm) Digital practices in R&D: - stitching ‘R’ with ‘D’ (reusable digital models in computation disciplines & virtual labs) - connectivity factor (crowdsourcing of R&D, co-use of Big Science objects & remote labs) 2013 2016 AI-based ‘live knowledge’ models for communities of practice become a new standard of knowledge organization (ending ‘Gutenberg Era’) ‘New Aristotle’: artificial intelligence to structure research teams and co-author research results Reorganization of standards in citation indexing, achievement recording and IPR management (new KM ontology) for digital & connected research environments 2022 2030
  17. 17. NeuroWeb: disrupting technologies for ‘new education’ Background Neuro- solutions go towards mass-market: - medical applications (prostheses & rehabilitation) - fitness & sports (biometry, biofeedback, psychopharm) - industrial & military applications for remote equipment control - use in gaming & entertainment - neuromarketing Addressing age-related issues through education (‘flexible mind’ training with ‘brain fitness’ & neurosolutions) 2013 Ultra-fast learning methods & development of exocortex (sync between mind & artificial agents / avatars) Training productive states of mind & body through biofeedback & gaming Schools of attention (incl. overcoming ADHD syndrome with neuro-training) The rise of NeuroWeb (new web built with mass-market brain-brain interfaces & ‘Human Throught Transfer Protocol’): new ways of communication, training, creative work and management New pedagogy (variety of new educational tools & products) for NeuroWebconnected groups Live teaching & MOOCs adjusting for real student engagement & learning attained (measured through biometry & neurointerfaces) Tools for managing productive altered states of consciousness (ASCs) for operator & creative work 2016 2022 2030
  18. 18. New Education Landscape in 3-5 yrs • МООСs integrated by educational trajectories • Academic grades give way to achievement recognition & competency passports • New models of direct talent investment and other financial / insurance tools in education (for learners & investors) in 7-10 yrs • The first ‘Billion-Student University’ • Mentor networks and artificial tutors • Mass market solutions for full-scale education without ever entering school or university • Major role of gaming environments and augmented reality • Objectivation of education process via biometry / neurointerfaces in 15-20 yrs • Game and teamwork are predominate forms of education and social interactions • Artificial intelligence as a mentor (“Diamond Age Primer”) and a partner in research • ‘Live knowledge’ models and the death of Gutenberg Galaxy • Education in NeuroWeblinked groups and new pedagogy
  19. 19. Obsolesce of Formats Following existing educational formats will be largely recognized in developed countries as ineffective or obsolete given the availability of feasible alternatives by 2017 • ‘Human phonograph’ industrial teaching based on standard textbooks & tests (replaced by ICT based solutions) • Standardized tests (complemented & replaced by tests more focused on unique & creative abilities) • Semester grades (replaced by continuous result recording) by 2025 • Graduation diplomas • (replaced by life-long • competency diploma) • • Academic journals (replaced by researcher communication networks), citation indexing standards & IPR management system (replaced by comprehensive digital KM ontologies) • Single-author textbooks • ASCs as a social deviation by 2035 Comprehensive schools Research universities Texts (books & articles) as a predominant medium of knowledgebased communication
  20. 20. Education in human life cycle: from sprinting to marathons Education 2013 Education 2030 education of the ‘firstthird’ of life (school & university) followed by professional education interventions 0… lifelong education through all stages of adult life, with second ‘intensity peak’ during the transition into eldery life Intensity Intensity 25 50 childhood education culminating in ‘rite of passage’ into adult life 75 Life time 0… 25 50 75 Life time 100+
  21. 21. Learner’s path in 2030 education (demand side) Goal-setting Self-defined (and continuously adjusted) personal development goals Goals defined by the role model (‘My Hero’s Path’) Goals defined by or with mentors as guides though educational process Team games / group projects that correspond to the level and goals of individual development (or development in the family) Personal development trajectory Achievement recording during education process Worldview, languages, intellectual development (IQ) Personal competency ‘passport’ Social and managerial skills (SQ / EQ) Integrated portfolio of creative achievement (incl. game achievements) Managing body-and-mind states, healthy behavior (PQ / EQ) ‘Enforced’ goals (e.g. by parents or employers) Online courses, knowledge libraries Simulators and MMORPG Biometry / biofeedback wearbles and neurointerfaces Project/game tasks and participants markets Indicators of the quality of educational process (engagement, ‘flow’) Supporting tech solutions Evaluation and feedback from mentors, peers, users of project results, members of communities of practice
  22. 22. Learner’s tech environment in 2030 education (supply side) Bio-monitoring (wearables etc.) “Cloud” of competence models and standards & Developer’s tools (ed products & integration into non-ed products) EDSTORE Ed-BigData: data processing systems Gateways to game worlds, social networks and collaborative environments Educational trajectory management interface Assessment and certification systems (incl. games and social networks) Libraries of MOOCs and simulators (with rankings) Online competency passport & integrated portfolio Opportunity markets (vacant positions/projects/games to gain experience and/or reputation) New financial tools (reputational capital, investment solutions)
  23. 23. Financial & insurance instruments for New Education Instrument type Key logic Trends supported 1 Direct talent investment - return on investment - transparency, accountability, manageability - personalization of education - data mining of profitable education&career trajectories 2 Insurance model - being competent is like being healthy (hence: ed insurance plan) - investment protection - support to direct talent investment model - personalization of education - education in communities / teams 3 Ed co-op - co-financing the development - education in communities / teams of community / team competences 4 Educational bookmaking - ‘’players’ bet on their ability to learn a subject or master a skill - gamefication of education - personalization (competing with ‘peers’) 5 Exchange & accumulation of reputation capital - reputation in community is exchanged and increased through learning & teaching - education in communities / teams - gamefication of education
  24. 24. Technoparadigm in Education – Teacher’s Friend or Foe? Obsolescent occupations • ‘human phonograph’ teachers & professors • certain administrative positions(e.g. educational process planners) • authors of ‘pre-digital’ textbooks Emerging occupations Occupations dealing with development and implementation of solutions for: • ‘blended’ learning that combines online / offline learning modules • learning through real-life projects • learning embedded in games • learning using wearables • managing education and career trajectories • evaluation and assessment Significant growth in the number of workplaces with a major shift in key competences demanded
  25. 25. Big Markets for New Education Educational systems become educational spheres. This creates a number of new large markets where new companies size of Google or Facebook will thrive. Backbone solutions Virtual worlds for playing and learning Neuro- solutions • • • • • • • • • Competence, achievement & reputation tracking Ed search engine and/or EdStore Ed-BigData solutions Ed developer tools Ed trajectory management & artificial tutors Mentor networks Opportunity and talent exchange markets • • • • • Simulators for prolonged team training Simulators for alienated & delinquents Games with augmented reality in corporate & urban environment Simulators of risky & hazardous situations ‘Playing with values’ ‘Psychodrama worlds’ • • State-of-mind training tools (incl. wearables) & attention management schools Measurement of engagement & learning attained Sensoriums New ed finance + solutions to ‘patch up’ industrial model of education
  26. 26. Big Markets for New Education: Wave of Startups & Spin-offs • Crisis in education recognized ICT called to address the issues Ed tech a new fashion • New generation of leaders in education rises 2010-2017 ‘Crutches’ and ‘patches’ for the current system using existing ICT infrastructure. Growing bubble in ed tech market segment. 2017-2025 Plunging of ed tech market players focused on solutions complementary to existing education. Growth of solutions offering new standards. Wars of standards and formats. Next gen ICT infrastructure used (incl. AIs, AR, biomonitors & neurointerfaces etc.) 2025 - 2035 New education solutions become the basic infrastructure in the developed world The ‘double hump’ effect is typical for many innovative sectors and could also be expected in ed tech market. Businesses that remain afloat after the initial bubble collapses will set new standards Risk of overheating and collapse is compensated by the possibility of emergence of gamechanging innovations. At this point it is not possible to forecast which startups have better become the backbone of the new educational sphere – thus experimenting is crucial
  27. 27. What’s happening to ‘industrial’ education model? Changes in education systems strongly resemble the ones that take place in the energy sector with the proliferation of smart grids: • ‘Industrial model’ (mass / standardized) education system will provide the ‘base load’ educational service for another 15-20 years, until efficient & sustainable alternatives are developed, able to provide same or higher quality services with lower cost • However, industrial age education system will rapidly lose its monopoly as more and more alternative providers emerge (kids born in 2013/14 will be able to get high quality / reasonable cost education without ever entering school of university) • Return on investment in ‘industrial model’ schools & universities will become substantial lower (due to effects of new education) and the industrial age education systems in most countries will keep deteriorating, increasing inequality within & between education systems (with some leaders breaking far ahead) Cost of service New Education ‘Industrial’ education ~2020-25 time The speed of emergence of the New Education will depend on whether new solutions will be able to provide same or better services for lower cost in areas invested by the state (socialization and social adaptation, national security etc.)
  28. 28. Some hints for regulators (in countries aspiring to participate in the creation of New Education) ‘Industrial model’ education • Maintain quality of human capital • Focus investment on leaders (with potential to grow into world’s education elite) and create possibility of spillovers • Change VET focus to address ‘the new unemployed’ problem New Education • Min intervention & standardization to retain the ‘open field’ • Support startups in education (e.g. create PPP funds) • Support export of education services • Establish a regulator responsible for the development and support of cutting edge technologies in education
  29. 29. Hints for regulators (comprehensive chart) ‘Industrial model’ education policies • Sufficient funding to maintain the existing quality level • Focused investments • Creation of leading institutions, • Setting up ‘megaprojects’ to facilitate a breakthrough, • Transforming universities into educational centers for regional growth and development • Rebuilding economy to accommodate waves of new technologies (also solving the problem of the ‘new unemployed’) • Supporting dialog between education and industry regarding future skills needs • Removing barriers that impede adaptation to industry requirements • Creation of programs to support self-employment • Organization of partnerships between МООС-platforms and national education systems New education policies • Creation of Ed Tech incubators for educators, programmers, and entrepreneurs (in the form of incubators, startup accelerators etc.) • Financial and fiscal support for startups in education, incl.: • Preferential tax regimes • Establishment of specialized Ed Tech venture capital funds in PPP format • Development of standards for physiological and mental safety of educational products (involving communities of educators, healthcare specialists, psychologists, and parents) – with gradual shift towards self-regulated standards of New Education General policies • Equal rights for all educational providers to access key resources: students, development budgets, grants, subsidies etc. • Possibility of tracking and recording individual’s achievements throughout his/her life and support of individual educational trajectories. (This will allow to choose between ‘industrial model’ and ‘new education’ providers.) • Special initiatives that help ‘stitching’ old and new education practices • Support of educational services export (incl. hi-tech solutions) • Support of research and experimentation in educational sphere (target grants to support development of educational technologies, creating new possibilities for experimentation inside the system ) Transboundary / international policies • • • • Promotion of inexpensive education technologies in developing countries (e.g. OLPC model) Identification and global replication of educational practiced from developing countries (e.g. ‘learning from extremes’ model) Establishment of global certification systems and global simulators for skill testing Uniform rules of international talent market functioning: W(E)TO or Talent ‘Kyoto Protocol’
  30. 30. ‘Force fields’ in New Education Players ‘PRO’ (revolutionaries and reformers) Players ‘CONTRA’ (conservatives) ICT industry (Some) organized religions Big business (entertainment, healthcare, kids-oriented industries) Regulators (domestic policy) Frontline universities (going with the trend) Regulators (education as a foreign policy instrument ) Ivory Tower Faculty & Management Conservative parents NGO education initiatives ‘Responsible’ parents Independent & young researchers Ambivalent players (potential to influence) ‘New unemployed’ (due to tech change) Employers Leaders of emerging world (China, India)