1. Back to the Future of Education
Four OECD Schooling Scenarios
Andreas Schleicher
28 January 2021

2. • 1.5bn students were locked out from school
• Remote learning has become the lifeline for learning
but doesn’t address the social functions of schools
• Access, use and quality of online resources amplify inequality
• Accreditation at stake
• Huge needs for just-in-time professional development
• Re-prioritisation of curricula to embrace wider range of
cognitive, social and emotional skills
• But lots of highly innovative learning environments emerging !

3. Natural
disasters
Pandemics
Artificial Intelligence
Economic
shocks
(cyber)
war
Energy cuts
Internet disrupted
Ageing
Data breaches
Climate
change
Impact
Uncertainty
The future will continue to surprise us!

4. Global issues covered in the curriculum (PISA, OECD average)
Fig VI.7.8
Based on principals' reports

5. Students taking action (PISA, OECD average)
Fig VI.5.4

6. Students’ agency regarding global issues (PISA, OECD average)
Fig VI.5.1a

7. Resilience to change among 15-year-olds (PISA)
Fig VI.3.7
Higher values in the index indicate
higher cognitive resilience

8. Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling
Four OECD Scenarios for the Future of Schooling
EDUCATION OUTSOURCED
SCHOOLING EXTENDED
LEARN-AS-YOU-GO
SCHOOLS AS LEARNING HUBS

9. Scenario 1: Schooling Extended
Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling
Participation in formal education continues to expand. International collaboration and
technological advances support more individualised learning. The structures and
processes of schooling remain.
Educational monopolies remain: Schools are
key actors in socialisation, qualification, care
and credentialing.
International collaboration and digital
technologies power more personalised
teaching and learning practices.
Distinct teacher corps remain, although with
new divisions of tasks and greater economies
of scale.
Goals and
functions
Organisation and
structures
The teaching
workforce
Governance and
geopolitics

10. Changing education can be like moving graveyards
• The status quo has many protectors
– Everyone supports reform – except for their own children
– Even those who promote reforms often change their mind when they
understand what change entails for them
– The slow-building crisis
• The frogs rarely clear the swamp
– The loss of privilege is pervasive because of the extent of vested interests
– Teachers can easily undermine reforms during implementation, while
blaming policy makers for having attempted misguided reforms
– Even when parents have a poor opinion of the education system, they will
generally view the school of their children and its teachers positively
• Asymmetry of costs and benefits of educational reform
– Costs are certain and immediate, benefits are uncertain and long-term

11. Changing education can be like moving graveyards
• Complex governance
– Many layers, many stakeholders
– Changes in the demands in our societies have vastly outpaced the
structural capacity of our current governance systems to respond
• Lack of supportive ecosystems
– Lack of an ‘education industry’ that pushes innovation and absorbs risks
– A research sector that is often disengaged from the real needs of real
classrooms
• You can lose an election but you don’t win one over education
– Complexity and length of reform trajectory that extend electoral cycles
– A substantial gap between the time when the cost of reform is incurred,
and the time when benefits materialise

12. 12
Digitalisation
Democratizing
Concentrating
Particularizing
Homogenizing
Empowering
Disempowering
The post-truth world where reality becomes fungible
• Virality seems privileged over quality
in the distribution of information
• Truth and fact are losing currency
Scarcity of attention and abundance of information
• Algorithms sort us into groups of like-minded
individuals create echo chambers that amplify our
views, leave us uninformed of opposing arguments,
and polarise our societies
9%

13. Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling
Traditional schooling systems break down as society becomes more directly involved
in educating its citizens. Learning takes place through more diverse, privatised and
flexible arrangements, with digital technology a key driver.
Fragmentation of demand with self-reliant
“clients” looking for flexible services.
Schooling systems as players in a wider (local,
national, global) education market.
Diversification of structures: multiple
organisational forms available to individuals.
Diversity of instructional roles and teaching
status operating within and outside of schools.
Scenario 2: Education Outsourced
Goals and
functions
Organisation and
structures
The teaching
workforce
Governance and
geopolitics

14. Schooling beyond the pandemic
(Averages across 36 countries, May 2020)
Table 17
%

15. Capital flows and digitalisation of education
Global vs Education Capital Flows <3% of global education expenditure on technology
Education is still at an early technology adoption stage, with comparatively low market capitalisation
Sources: HolonIQ, World Health Organization, Goldman Sachs, Standard & Poors. All figures are rounded estimates based on source research.
0.15 !

16. Global education venture capital
Source: HolonIQ, January 2019
Venture capitalists have invested USD 7B in 2019, up from USD 2B in 2014 – mainly from China

17. EdTech expenditure
Advanced Education Technology Expenditure, 2018 and 2025 estimate, USD Billions
Source: HolonIQ, January 2019

18. Technology is only as good as its use (TALIS 2018)
Percentage of teachers who “frequently” or “always” let students use ICT for projects or class work
%

19. Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling
Schools remain, but diversity and experimentation have become the norm. Opening the
“school walls” connects schools to their communities, favouring ever-changing forms of
learning, civic engagement and social innovation.
Strong focus on local decisions; self-organising
units in diverse partnerships. Schools as hubs
function to organise multiple configurations of
local-global resources.
Flexible schooling arrangements permit greater
personalisation and community involvement.
Professional teachers as nodes of wider
networks of flexible expertise.
Scenario 3: Schools as Learning Hubs
Goals and
functions
Organisation and
structures
The teaching
workforce
Governance and
geopolitics

20. Prevalence of pedagogical strategies (TALIS 2018)
Percentage of teachers who frequently or always use the following practices in their class (OECD average-31)
Classroom
management
Clarity of
instruction
Cognitive
activation
Enhanced
activities
%

21. Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling
Education takes place everywhere, anytime. Distinctions between formal and informal
learning are no longer valid as society turns itself entirely to the power of the machine.
Traditional goals and functions of schooling
are overwritten by technology. Dismantling of
schooling as a social institution.
Open market of “prosumers” with a central role for
communities of practice (local, national, global).
(Global) governance of data and digital
technologies becomes key.
Scenario 4: Learn-as-you-go
Goals and
functions
Organisation and
structures
The teaching
workforce
Governance and
geopolitics

22. • Many online and distance learning and other innovative approaches such as AR, VR
and AI were created, adapted and expanded.
New learning experiences
Image sources: Electude
Classroom and Labster Labs’
virtual labs; Oxford University’s
LIFE project, a smartphone-based
virtual learning platform

23. Assessments and exams
New types of assessments
through simulations and
games
Adaptive assessments
Hands-on assessment in
vocational settings
Increasing reliability of
machine rating for essays
Predictive models may
disrupt the exam model

24. Learning analytics
• Learning analytics helps educators
personalise learning
• in real time
• as a reflective tool
• Data come from sensors, learning
management systems and digital activities
of learners
• When should you shift to a new activity?
• Are you losing the attention of learners?
• How do you struture instruction time
(lecture, small group, discussion,
assessment, practice, etc.)?
• Which students do you talk to and support
the most?

25. OECD
Scenarios for the Future
of Schooling
Goals and
functions
Organisation and
structures
The teaching
workforce
Governance and
geopolitics
Challenges for public
authorities
Scenario 1
Schooling extended
Schools are key
actors in
socialisation,
qualification, care
and credentialing.
Educational
monopolies retain all
traditional functions of
schooling systems.
Teachers in monopolies,
with potential new
economies of scale and
division of tasks.
Strong role for
traditional
administration and
emphasis on
international
collaboration.
Accommodating diversity and
ensuring quality across a
common system. Potential
trade-off between consensus
and innovation.
Scenario 2
Education outsourced
Fragmentation of
demand with
self-reliant “clients”
looking for flexible
services.
Diversification of
structures: multiple
organisational forms
available to
individuals.
Diversity of roles and
status operating within
and outside of schools.
Schooling systems as
players in a wider
(local, national, global)
education market.
Supporting access and quality,
fixing “market failures”.
Competing with other
providers and ensuring
information flows.
Scenario 3
Schools as learning hubs
Flexible schooling
arrangements permit
greater
personalisation and
community
involvement.
Schools as hubs
function to organise
multiple configurations
of local-global
resources.
Professional teachers as
nodes of wider networks
of flexible expertise.
Strong focus on local
decisions. Self-
organising units in
diverse partnerships.
Diverse interests and power
dynamics; potential conflict
between local and systemic
goals. Large variation in local
capacity.
Scenario 4
Learn-as-you-go
Traditional goals and
functions of schooling
are overwritten by
technology.
Dismantling of
schooling as a social
institution.
Open market of
“prosumers” with a
central role for
communities of practice
(local, national, global).
(Global) governance
of data and digital
technologies becomes
key.
Potential for high
interventionism (state,
corporate) impacts democratic
control and individual rights.
Risk of high social
fragmentation.

26. NEW GOALS
MODERNISING
INNOVATION
GLOBAL
POTENTIAL
VIRTUAL
LEARNING
OLD STRUCTURES
DISRUPTING
RISK AVOIDANCE
LOCAL
REALITY
FACE-TO-FACE
EDUCATION
Trends Shaping Education 2020
Assessing risks, leveraging opportunities
Tensions and paradoxes require smart responses

27. Thank you!
Trends Shaping Education 2020
Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling
For more information:
OECD (2020), Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling,
Educational Research and Innovation, OECD Publishing,
Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/178ef527-en.
www.oecd.org/education/ceri/trends-shaping-education