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Presentation the future
- 1. ONLINE EDUCATION’S NEXT TWENTY-FIVE YEARS: WILL THE ACADEMY LOSE ITS SENSE OF PURPOSE? ACCELERATE November 2019 1
- 2. Panelists 2 Elizabeth Ciabocchi Julia Parra Michael Torrence Tony Picciano
- 3. Predicting what will happen in the future is easy. When it will happen is the hard part! 3
- 4. A Vignette In December 2018, the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction contest was not won by academics. It was won by a team at DeepMind, the artificial intelligence (AI) lab owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, Incorporated. ….. In describing DeepMind’s accomplishment, Mohammed AlQuraishi, a biologist at the Harvard Medical School, who has dedicated his career to protein research commented that he felt “a melancholy” after losing to DeepMind. “I was surprised and deflated. They were way out in front of everyone else. The smartest and most ambitious researchers wanting to work on protein structure will look to DeepMind for opportunities.” 4
- 5. 2030s and Beyond….. New Technologies that Will Change the Nature of Society including Education 6 1. Quantum Computing – subatomic-based technology (Gigabytes (109) and terabytes (1012) will give way to zettabytes(1021) and yottabytes(1024)) 2. Computing and the Mind (Biosensing) Neuroprostheses Brain Nets Nanobots 3. Super Clouds – Watson + Big Brother 4. Robotics 5. Fully Developed Artificial Intelligence Applications
- 6. 7 Higher Education’s Future Concerns 1. Students – Demographics, Diversity, Retention, Commoditization 2. Finances 3. Workforce Evolution (1/3 of jobs including blue collar, white collar and mid-level management skilled positions will be eliminated by 2030 (McKinsey)) What will be the Effects on: 1. Teaching 2. Research 3. Administrative Services
- 7. 8 Higher Education’s Future Beyond Technology Critical Questions Are faculty, researchers, and administrators ready and able to work with new technologies and are they willing to yield control of their prerogatives to these technologies? Will we have a “better” higher education system?
- 8. 9 QUESTIONS FOR PANELISTS 1. Will the campus become virtual? Given efforts to reduce cost and price, instructional technology advances in the next 10 years and an inevitable increasingly mobile society - will the 'campus experience' become a luxury for affluent students and those with less means utilize technology to gain an education? [Elizabeth] 3. Can you envision how emerging technologies might transform student learning? Consider learning management systems, how students "attend" class, and the related pedagogy/ies. How will emerging technologies (i.e., adaptive learning, big data/analytics, artificial intelligence change the role of faculty? Or change the role of administrators? What will be the impact on student learning? [Julia] 2. Does digital learning of the future offer any possibility of alleviating educational economic inequality? Will public higher education remain an affordable and sustainable option given reduced state support, and negative public perspectives regarding relevance? How could you foresee digital education addressing issues of affordability, sustainability, equitable access and relevance more than it is at this time? [Michael]
- 9. Higher Education’s Future Drew Faust, the president of Harvard University, in a message to the World Economic Forum in 2015, described three major forces that will shape the future of higher education: • the influence of technology • the changing shape of knowledge • the attempt to define the value of education. “So much of what humanity has achieved has been sparked and sustained by the research and teaching that take place every day at colleges and universities, sites of curiosity and creativity that nurture some of the finest aspirations of individuals and, in turn, improve their lives—and their livelihoods. As the landscape continues to change, we must be careful to protect the ideals at the heart of higher education, ideals that serve us all well as we work together to improve the world.” (Faust, 2015) 10
- 10. 11 Further Reading; Artificial Intelligence and the Academy's Loss of Purpose Anthony Picciano Abstract This article speculates on the future of higher education as online technology, specifically adaptive learning and analytics as infused by artificial intelligence software, develops and matures. Online and adaptive learning have already advanced within the academy, but the most significant changes are yet to come. These evolving technologies have the potential to change the traditional roles in our colleges and universities to the point that many educators will reconsider their purposes as teachers, researchers and administrators. https://olj.onlinelearningconsortium.org/index.php/olj/article/view/2023
Editor's Notes
- In February 2019, an article in the New York Times described a global competition that hundreds of scientists enter every two years. Referred to as the “World Cup” of biochemical research, teams of scientists tackle a biological puzzle called “the protein folding problem.” Essentially, they try to predict the three-dimensional shape of proteins in the human body, a problem that no one has ever been able to solve. Past winners have chipped away at it but a solution still eludes the scientific community. In 2018, the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction contest was not won by academics. It was won by a team at DeepMind, the artificial intelligence (AI) lab owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, Incorporated. In describing DeepMind’s accomplishment, Mohammed AlQuraishi, a biologist at the Harvard Medical School, who has dedicated his career to protein research commented that he felt “a melancholy” after losing to DeepMind. “I was surprised and deflated. They were way out in front of everyone else.” He criticized big pharmaceutical companies like Merck and Novartis, as well as his academic community, for not keeping pace. “The smartest and most ambitious researchers wanting to work on protein structure will look to DeepMind for opportunities” (AlQuraishi, 2018). He urged the life-sciences community to shift their attention toward the kind of AI work practiced by DeepMind. DeepMind’s victory predicted the future of biochemical research, increasingly driven by machines and the people who oversee the machines. Another researcher, Derek Lowe said “It is not that machines are going to replace chemists. It’s that the chemists who use machines will replace those that don’t” (Metz, February 5, 2019). AI development of this magnitude requires enormous amounts of data. DeepMind can lean on the massive computer data centers that underpin Google as well as many of the world’s top AI researchers who know how to get the most out of these facilities. “It allows us to be much more creative, to try many more ideas, often in parallel,” said Demis Hassabis, the chief executive and a co-founder of DeepMind (Metz, February 5, 2019). Universities and big pharmaceutical companies are unlikely to match these resources. Kai-Fu Lee, a former senior executive at Google and Microsoft, stated that humanity is moving towards the establishment of a “new world order” dominated by AI, cloud computing and robotics (Lee, 2018) that will have significant ramifications for many aspects of human endeavors. How will our species respond? Lee believes that many workers will experience a “psychological loss of purpose” as AI changes the nature of their occupations (Lee, 2018, p. 21). A more pessimistic prediction comes from Yuval Noah Harari, bestselling author of Sapiens, who commented that AI has the potential to create a “useless class of superfluous people” (Harari, 2017, p.322). The term ““useless class of superfluous people” surely attracts attention but it may be a bit too extreme. In a later book, Harari takes a more moderate stand and discusses at length the merging of workers with large-scale integrated digital networks (Harari, 2018, p. 22). There are no firm estimates of the number of jobs in this country that will be displaced by AI and other forms of automation. While one estimate suggests 47 percent (Frey & Osborne, 2013), another poses 38 percent (Berriman & Hawksworth, 2017), and yet another puts it as low as 9 percent (Artnz, Gregory, & Zierahn, 2016). The fact is that no one really knows. One aspect of this displacement is certain, and that is that many of these displaced jobs will be in white collar and professional areas such as teaching, law, and medicine as well as the corporate sector. It is not the purpose of this article to review this issue as it relates to the entire human race, but to speculate specifically on the future of higher education as online technology, such as AI infused adaptive software and analytics, changes the traditional role of educators in our colleges and universities. Online and adaptive learning have already advanced within the academy, but the most significant changes are yet to come.
- New Technologies Quantum Computing – gigabytes (109) and terabytes (1012) will give way to zettabytes(1021) and yottabytes(1024) Computing and the Mind (Biosensing) Neuroprostheses Brainnets Nanobots 3. Superclouds – Watson + Big Brother 4. Robotics – Alexa and Siri Fully Formed 5. Fully Developed Artificial Intelligence Applications
- McKinsey p. 181 Daniel Markovits – The Meritocracy Trap. Near Future-- what emerging technologies (i.e., adaptive learning, big data/analytics) do you think will have the most impact on online learning? More distant future -- Given that widespread use of the printing press gave us the lecture-text-test model of higher education we pretty much follow today, do you think that widespread use of digital technologies (i.e., brain-machine interfaces, artificial intelligence) are pushing transition to a new model and if so, what will education look like in 20 years? Near future: Will public higher education remain an affordable and sustainable option given reduced state support, and negative public perspectives regarding relevance? How could you foresee digital education addressing issues of affordability, sustainability, equitable access and relevance more than it is at this time? More distant future: Given efforts to reduce cost and price, instructional technology advances in the next 20 years and an inevitable increasingly mobile society - will the 'campus experience' become a luxury for affluent students and those with less means utilize technology to gain an education? Will the campus become virtual?
- Near Future-- what emerging technologies (i.e., adaptive learning, big data/analytics) do you think will have the most impact on online learning? More distant future -- Given that widespread use of the printing press gave us the lecture-text-test model of higher education we pretty much follow today, do you think that widespread use of digital technologies (i.e., brain-machine interfaces, artificial intelligence) are pushing transition to a new model and if so, what will education look like in 20 years? Near future: Will public higher education remain an affordable and sustainable option given reduced state support, and negative public perspectives regarding relevance? How could you foresee digital education addressing issues of affordability, sustainability, equitable access and relevance more than it is at this time? More distant future: Given efforts to reduce cost and price, instructional technology advances in the next 20 years and an inevitable increasingly mobile society - will the 'campus experience' become a luxury for affluent students and those with less means utilize technology to gain an education? Will the campus become virtual?
- Near Future-- what emerging technologies (i.e., adaptive learning, big data/analytics) do you think will have the most impact on online learning? More distant future -- Given that widespread use of the printing press gave us the lecture-text-test model of higher education we pretty much follow today, do you think that widespread use of digital technologies (i.e., brain-machine interfaces, artificial intelligence) are pushing transition to a new model and if so, what will education look like in 20 years? Near future: Will public higher education remain an affordable and sustainable option given reduced state support, and negative public perspectives regarding relevance? How could you foresee digital education addressing issues of affordability, sustainability, equitable access and relevance more than it is at this time? More distant future: Given efforts to reduce cost and price, instructional technology advances in the next 20 years and an inevitable increasingly mobile society - will the 'campus experience' become a luxury for affluent students and those with less means utilize technology to gain an education? Will the campus become virtual?
- They are all right to some extent but there is very little to indicate that there will be a mass disruption of colleges. The vast majority of the institutions that exist today will exist through the 2020s. The demand is great and higher education will continue to attract students who see the value of a college education. Large public and private universities will offer a wide variety of academic programs geared increasingly to careers and employment. Students will have options for fully online programs, face-to-face programs, and especially blended programs. Every program and course will likely have an online component. The major disruption will likely be a change in policy such as “tuition-free public higher education”.