2. Agenda
• The most important trend…
• Consumer behaviour patterns
• Trends in the eCommerce industry
• Product design
• Globalisation
• Workplace changes
• Tech trends
• Implications for management
2
16. Expedia is as much a software company as a travel company. LinkedIn is the world’s
top recruiting company. Even Barnes & Noble think of themselves as a software
company. There isn’t a single consumer industry not disrupted by software. 16
17. The rich get richer
• In Dec 2011, big online retailers grew 19% but
smaller ones grew only 7%
• Bigboxification: Amazon in 2011 = Walmart in
1971
• Paretto’s law: the 25 biggest online retailers
account for 75% of all revenue
17
18. But also death by a thousand piranhas
The largest travel site, Expedia.com is under siege from smaller, nimbler specialists
18
19. Companies can become wildly popular very quickly
Pinterest is growing much, much quicker than Facebook or Twitter 19
31. Intersection of online and offline
“It varies a lot by category, but only about 9% of U.S. retail sales are online today, and that rate is
growing at only about 10% a year. And a lot of that buying is from the online businesses of physical
retailers like J.C. Penney and Apple. In reality, what’s growing is physical retailers’ extension into a
multi-channel world. As one grows, the other needn’t decline.”
- Ron Johnson, Apple and JC Penney retail guru, HBR.org
31
33. The content business shows signs of
life
Full paywall doesn’t work NYT: 20 free articles / mo
HBR.org: 3 free articles / mo
FT.com: some free access
33
35. Democratisation of start-ups and VC
The low cost of starting a start-up, and easy access to seed VC is
enabling many entrepreneurs to take on more established players
35
39. Light-weight business models
What good is building it fast and reliably, if you are
building the wrong thing?
39
40. Staggered roll-outs of Facebook Timeline
Worldwide roll-out: Dec 15, ’11
Announcement: Sep ’11
(feedback and redesign)
NZ roll-out: Dec 5, ’11
(feedback and redesign)
40
41. The two design philosophies are merging
The Apple model is more
The Google model relies on rapid edited, intuitive and top-
experimentation and data. The down. When asked what
company constantly refines its market research went into
search, advertising marketplace, e-mail the company’s elegant
and other services, depending on how product designs, Steve Jobs
people use its online offerings. It takes had a standard answer:
a bottom-up approach: customers are none. “It’s not the
participants, essentially becoming consumers’ job to know
partners in product design. what they want,” he would
add.
Apple and Google pursue very different paths to innovation, but the gap between their two models
may be closing a bit. In the months after Larry Page, the Google co-founder, took over as chief
executive last April, the company eliminated a diverse collection of more than two dozen projects, a
nudge toward top-down leadership. And Timothy D. Cook, Apple’s C.E.O., will almost surely be a
more bottom-up leader than Mr. Jobs.
The Yin and the Yang of Corporate Innovation (NY Times) 41
43. VCs go global: competition could come from
anywhere
Israel has the highest VC per capita in the world! 43
44. Globalisation (per Forrester)
• International shipping will be commonplace
• More brands will sell direct in international
markets
• Companies will leverage their domestic
infrastructure before going fully global
• BRIC will still be the acronym, but CBIR
(China, Brasil, India, Russia) will be the order
44
55. The platform wars
The huge tech companies want to own the full ecosystem: Amazon makes
hardware, Apple wants to sell books, and Google buys Motorola 55
60. Tying it all together
“Softwarisation”
Value of Design
“You can’t know
Low cost of experimentation
Poster children
much upfront”
Intellectual
framework for
Emergent Business
Design
Pace of change
Designer Balsamiq (rapid prototyping)
education 60
Agile BI / Big Data tools
61. Bubble 2.0: It’s getting crowded, and a shakeout
may be coming
61
62. Implications for leaders
• Adaptive leadership
• “Plan-do” to “Envision-experiment”
• Hire smart people. Set the vision and leave
them alone
• Get comfortable with ambiguity
• Lean what tech can do
• Rewire companies to
62
