Possible trends in Tourism after COVID-19

1. Trends in
Travel & Tourism
Post COVID-19
DR. SUMIT KUMAR SINGH
A S S I S TA N T P R O F E S S O R
G A R D E N C I T Y U N I V E R S I T Y, B A N G A LO R E

2. Introduction
A book titled ‘Future Shock’ was written by the famed futurist Alvin
Toffler way back in 1970.
In which he defined the term ‘future shock’ as a ‘certain
psychological state of individuals and entire societies’.
The shortest definition for the term in the book is ‘too much change
in short period of time’.

3. Cont…
Like same in present, the travel & tourism business is in future shock.
Country borders are sealed, Cities are at stand-still, Flights are grounded, Cruise
ships are docked at harbours, Trains are stationed, Buses are not playing and Hotels
& Restaurants are shut.
Social distancing has become the new mantra, masks and gloves are the new safety
tools and no one is even thinking of a holiday.

4. Tourism Statistics of World
The global travel and tourism industry was estimated to be worth over $700 billion
in 2020 – and it’s now forecast to be $447 billion as a result of the coronavirus
pandemic.
Europe is likely to be particularly hard hit, with predicted revenue dropping from
more than $200 billion to $124 billion.
The WTTC predicts potential jobs impact of COVID-19 to the global Travel &
Tourism sector, up to 50 million jobs are at risk globally.

5. Global
685,065
711,944
447,412
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2019 Original 2020 forecast 2020 restated
GlobalrevenueinmillionU.S.dollars
Note: Worldwide; 2019 and 2020
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 60.
Source(s): Statista; ID 1103426
2
Forecasted change in revenue from the travel and tourism industry due to the coronavirus (COVID-
19) pandemic worldwide from 2019 to 2020 (in million U.S. dollars)
Global change in travel and tourism revenue due to COVID-19 2019-2020

6. Tourism Statistics of India
India attracted 10.5 million foreign visitors; 5 million NRIs; 1.8 billion Indians
travelled within the country for holidays; 26 million Indians travelled overseas for
the tourism.
India has 53,000 travel agents, 115,000 tour operators, 15,000 adventure
companies, 911,000 tourist transporters, 53,000 hospitality companies and five lakh
restaurants.
With all these, In India totally 3.8 crore people employed in tourism and now
getting affected due to Corona pandemic.

7. Present Condition of Tourism
After seeing the situation, we can easily say that, ‘Fear’ is the key of the present tourism.
Fear of the unknown. Fear of the infection.
Fear of touching someone. Fear of being touched.
Fear of being infected, and infecting family and friends.
Fear of being infected, and being far away from good healthcare.
Fear of bringing back the virus from travels overseas.
Fear. More fear. And yet more fear.

8. Possible Trends in the Tourism
Actually, suspicion and fear will take
dollops all of good news.
Till then travel & tourism are literally in
the doghouse.
Let us look at possible trends in the near
future, each one is important in its own
way.

9. 1. Country borders may not be
open to all for some time.
The movement of people across
borders has come to a standstill in
much of the world as countries
have closed their borders to visitors
and sometimes their own.

10. 2. Some geographies may
become no-no for a while.
Countries like Italy and Spain, even
Germany, UK and of course the
US, that have recorded large number
of corona deaths may not have too
many takers for tourism in the near
future.

11. 3. Business travel will decrease
significantly.
Already Zoom & Google Meet have
become the norm.
A significant proportion of
companies are actively seeking both to
reduce business travel and to cut the
number of employees.

12. 4. MICE market will go into
coma for a while.
Most big global events, conferences,
launches, festivals, seminars, symposiums,
conventions started to get cancelled.
The spectator sports were the first
casualties.
The Olympics got postponed by a year,
IPL was cancelled, Wimbledon scrapped.

13. 5. Mega events will become less
attractive.
The flagship events of 2020 were
surely the Olympics in Tokyo and
the Expo in Dubai.
Both have been pushed by a year,
in the hope that the world will limp
back to normalcy by mid to late
2021.

14. 6. Group travel will shrink.
India was becoming an increasingly
large group travel market for first
timers and middle-class families.
Both for reasons of affordability, and
safety fears, this segment is likely to
shrink significantly.

15. 7. Leisure travel too will
dwindle for some time.
With so much uncertainty … shut
borders, grounded flights, shuttered
establishments, job losses,
recessionary economy, uncertain
school terms … holidays seem a
distant frontier for now.

16. 8. Lesser number of students
may travel overseas to study.
A large number of students rushed
home from wherever they were
studying.
Some are attending classes digitally
today.
Many may not go back this
semester/this year.

17. 9. Religious tourism will drop.
With administrative directions on
mass gatherings being issued across
states.
With the detection of a COVID-
19 case in religious places, even the
Gods are out of bounds for people.

18. 10. ‘Mature’ travellers’, read
retirees, will be most drastically
impacted.
Older folk were becoming serious
travellers over the past few years.
Many retirees were finally going for the
tour to Andamans, Goa and Coorg or
choosing to go Europe and America.
Their new found liberation may get heavily
tempered by the fear that older humans
are more susceptible to the virus.

19. 11. Tourism may look inwards,
be more domestic directed.
Thankfully, traditional domestic travel
destinations like Himachal, Ladakh,
Goa, Uttarakhand, Andamans, even
Pondicherry have remained largely inert
to the virus.
So much of the honeymoon and
holiday traffic may stay within India.

20. 12. Destination weddings may
suffer a serious setback.
Not just celebrities, upper middle India
was increasingly getting married in Italy,
Thailand and other parts of the world .
This euphoria is likely to ebb with present
situation.
That’s good news for the destination like
Udaipur, Goa, Kerala and the likes of
Neemrana and Ananda-in-the-Hills.

21. 13. School trips will dry up.
This was an emerging market for
especially with rich kids headed to ‘study’
tours courtesy indulgent parents and
status-driven schools.
Looks like this extravagance is going to
get curtailed out of fear for safety of the
kids, rather than affordability.

22. 14. Nature will triumph.
In all likelihood, nature and wildlife will be
preferred over monuments and history in
the months ahead.
So, the hills, the sea resorts, wild life
reserves and slightly isolated locations will
win over crowded favourites of yore.

23. 15. Air travel will become more
expensive.
The middle seat in economy will be
left empty to maintain social
distancing, so airline tickets will be
sell on high price.
But with 33% people less to carry,
many airlines may allow higher
baggage allowance as a sop to
attract and retain customers.

24. 16. Airports will be less
crowded.
Lesser crowded airports may still not
make flying more pleasurable as health-
checks may get added to check-in
routines, enhancing the wait at airports.
Airport outlets’ sell also will be affected
because of less crowd.

25. 17. Luxury hotels may come
cheaper.
The luxury segment may have no
choice but to reduce tariffs.
Lower occupancies and lower room
rates will be a double whammy for the
starred chains. Tough!

26. 18. Cruises may be shunned for
a while.
This sector is heavily impacted globally.
Even the Trump package in the US has
not benefitted the cruise liners.
So, the cruise business is in really big
trouble.

27. 19. Road-trips may find greater
favour.
Families and youngsters are likely to
opt for more of drive-outs, especially
on long weekends and for short
vacations.
So, near-city travel is likely to see an
uptick.

28. 20. ‘Hometown’ tripping will a
big segment.
Dwindling of travel options elsewhere
will push up the ‘hometown’ travel quite
significantly.
Mostly travel to go visit old parents, and
connect with family.

29. 21. Food & Beverage
consumption will be impacted.
Restaurants will see diminished business
due to social distancing.
And banqueting will face challenging
times with weddings becoming smaller
and the conference business going into
slow gear.

30. 22. ‘Adventure’ in food & travel
may take a nosedive.
In the US already ‘Asian’ food has taken a
serious beating. There ‘Asian’ largely means
Chinese food.
Well, in India too some of the ‘adventure’
in food may diminish.

31. 23. Experiences will prevail
over the physical.
The lockdown, and the prolonged stay indoors
has helped most people introspect.
So, cycling, sailing, walking tours, hiking,
fishing and lots of the simple pleasures may
surface as reasons to holiday differently.
Health farms, spas, nature villages etc. are
newer opportunities for those in the travel
business.

32. 24. Shopping will suffer serious
setback.
The reason Bangkok, Dubai and the like
are favourite destinations are not just
because of the sight-seeing, but because
of the shopping.
With travel itself getting curtailed, the
shopping binges will also have to recede
till better times.

33. 25. Customer will have more
choice, more flexibility.
Airlines and hotels are likely to be more
accommodating on postponements,
cancellation, early check-ins, late check-
outs especially for loyalty customers.
So, upgrades, extras and freebies would be
welcome surprises at many places that had
forgotten the true meaning of ‘hospitality’!

34. Future Travel Scenario
1.Safety: both perception and reality will matter
2.Health: government may introduce mandatory
checks
3.Hygiene: There will be no compromise on
this
4.Brands: Those that will stand for quality will
win
5.Value: Good value for good money will be the
new mantra

35. Conclusion
Back to Future Shock, Toffler said back then 50 years ago that ‘cop ability’ will be
more important in the future than ‘capability’.
In the Covid 19 pandemic too, it is the ability to cope with change, cope with the
new normal, that will separate the men from the boys.
The business may take anything between 9 to 24 months to start climbing back to
previous peaks.
Till then the headwinds will be strong and severe. Some will succeed, some will
struggle, some will perish.

36. Thank You!