Get ready for the impact of Covid-19 on Travel Industry. Automation is the key. Industry insights & size of Indian Travel Industry included with figures. Investor sentiments post covid-19 included
2. The last few weeks have been unprecedented, with the COVID-
19 crisis affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of
people, travel industry is directly impacted. Several travel
companies, including, OTA’s, Small, mid-size and big travel
agents, DMC’s, travel and hospitality startups, hotel and cruise
ship quarantines to airlines halting their operations have been
immensely affected with this.Since first being identified in late-
2019 in the Wuhan region of China, coronavirus COVID-19 has
spread to dozens of countries around the world.
Here are some of the key global details(at the time of writing
this):
Over 12,13,927 cases have been confirmed
Almost 65,652 deaths recorded.
More than 205 countries or territories impacted.
Number of cases "recovering" from symptoms over 2,52,391.
Remainder still under observation or quarantine.
The World Health Organization defined the spread of
coronavirus COVID-19 as global "pandemic" from March 11.
With the entire world under full or
partial lockdown, major economies
like USA, China, France, Germany,
Italy, India, Russia etc have been
severely impacted. Cross border
trade is negligible, Airlines have been
grounded, local trasport is at halt,
people are lockdown in their homes,
economies have started showing it’s
ripple effect on other sectors as well
like retail, trading, manufacturing
and many more, companies of all
nature all around globe have
deferred their business travel plans
in lieu of the safety of thier
employees and customers. At the
same time, the financial markets
dropped massively, while a lot of
businesses have had to close and
layoff employees, there is a huge
ambiguity what lies ahead in the
coming months
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GLOBAL AND
LOCAL IMPACT
3. 32Billion(B) GMV in 2017.
80% Flights, Hotels; remaining in
Train, Taxi, Visa.
70% via SMB(Turnover less than
300cr) and remaining by 2000
Enterprises(10B).
Growing at 12%CAGR (doubling
in 6 years).
GPM Flights- 4%, GPM Hotels -
10%.
Gross margin pool is 650M, 1B for
flights and hotels respectively
2017
BUSINESS
50B GMV in 2018
FY18 Flights GMV - 12B, GPM-
700M(5.8%);
Hotel GMV - 23B,GPM-4B(17%);
BUS GMV -7B, GPM-300M;
RAIL GMV-7B,GPM-very less;
2018
DOMESTIC
5B
Total Gross Margin Pool of
domestic category in 2018
30B GMV in 2017
25M leisure trips in 2020 -
50% Friends/Relative, 25% package,
25% Independent.
Independent GMV - 7.5B with Avg.
Ticket: 80k
OUTBOUND
Domestic
41%
Outbound
32.8%
Business
26.2%
Hotels
79.8%
Flights
14%
Bus
6%
Rail
0.2%
SIZE OF INDIA TRAVEL INDUSTRY
GrossMarginPool-Domestic
TOTALGMV(112BUSD)
source: twitter
all figures are in USD
GMV: Gross Merchandise Value | GPM: Gross Profit Margin
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Cities are in lock-down, quarantine or
isolation.
Travelers are canceling bookings for tours,
accommodations and flights
Attractions and activities are closed
Small businesses are dying, while the rest are
trying to survive and optimize their cash flow
as much as possible
Depending on how long this crisis will last, our
behavior as travelers will be more - IMPACTED
Well - Never been worse
HOW IS THE
TRAVEL INDUSTRY
AFFECTED BY
COVID-19?
While there had been plentiful
funding available pre covid crisis -
investment in new as well as
established travel companies have
been almost freezed. Investors are
bullish but extremely cautious about
funding and bailout timelines. A
common belief is prevailing among
investor community that it will take
at least 12 months or several quarters
for a full recovery but as said travel
will never be the same. But there are
few investors and entrepreneurs who
think that recovery will not take
much time. Canadian Dividend
Growth Investor says: "I expect
earnings to fall off a cliff for all travel
stocks. Depending on the industry, I
expect earnings to fall as much as
30% to 200%. However, I expect a
quick recovery after the pandemic is
over."There is also a hope on the
development of a vaccine by 2021, so
that the recovery will push through
the next year and early 2022. OTA’s
and ticketing services will emerge
out as a survivors and will play a lead
role in recovery. Though it will be
slow and there will no pent up
demand immediately.
INVESTORS
VIEWPOINT
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You will need more than a passport
Self guided and private tours will rise
Travel will have different seasons
More value driven approach and spend will happen
Traveler will prefer local than traveling abroad
Healthcare, air quality and emergency measures will be
an advertised features
Corporate travel will be super strict and highly
purposeful
The coronavirus pandemic has changed all of our worlds, and
not just in the short-term. When things do start to return to
“normal,” travel, especially international travel, will look very
different. Some of the changes that experts see coming are:
TRAVEL
INDUSTRY POST
COVID-19 -
CHANGES AND
RECOVERY
For small travel agents - Automation
will play a key role.
Research says that 65% - 70% of the
domestic, international and business
travel still rely on travel agents. This
is the segment which is badly hit with
this crisis, many of these has gone
bankrupt, some are waiting
cluelessly how to recover? This is the
segment which has been neglecting
the technology since long and how
this can be their life savior. According
to BeMyGuest CEO Blanca Menchaca,
“The ability to endure this situation
along with the regeneration of our
industry will be dependent on keeping
costs to a minimum and automating
the essential sales process. …Well,
let’s look at the brighter side now -
with this natural break - we have
finally got time to have a macro and
micro look at our working
methodologies, business practices,
operating natures and overall
efficiency of our businesses no matter
what the scale is. It’s high time that
we eradicate massive inefficiencies
of manual processes in travel
industry. The current crisis has only
served to further highlight the
critical need for automation
throughout the tours, travel and
activities industry.” Tour operators
who were confident in their
flourishing business believing they
had no need for technology are now
bearing the very real costs of
resource excess.
automation
is the key
CEO, BEMYGUEST