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Presentation by: Kaustav Sankar
Das | 33
Megha Bannerjee | 42
Pankaj Kumar Bothra | 53
Priyojeet Kumar | 61
Sourav Mitra | 85
Subhodeep Biswas | 86
Titir Ghosh | 91
Introduction
West Bengal is located in the eastern region of India.
It is the 4th populous state in India with a total
population of 91, 347, 736 ( Census 2011) spread over
an area of Spread over 88,750 square Km. It shares
its border with countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and
Myanmar . Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Sikkim, and Assam
are the states which share borders with West Bengal.
The state capital is Kolkata (formerly Calcutta). West Bengal
encompasses two broad natural regions: the Gangetic
Plain in the south and the sub-Himalayan and
Himalayan area in the north.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Total population (census 2011)-91, 347, 736.
Male: 46, 927, 389
Female : 44, 420, 347
Sex ratio: 950 per 1000 males.
Child Sex Ratio : 956
Density / square Km : 1,028
* Kolkata has got the highest density of 24,306 per square Km
51%
49%
PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION
MALE FEMALE
URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION
RURAL POPULATION: 62,183,113.
URBAN POPULATION: 29,093,002.
 URBAN POPULATION
MALE: 1,49,64,082
FEMALE: 1,41,28,920
MALE
51%
FEMALE
49%
68%
32%
POPULATION
RURAL URBAN
 RURAL POPULATION:
MALE: 31,844,945
FEMALE: 30,338,168
HOUSEHOLDS
Total: 2,03,80,315
Urban-65,67,150
Rural-1,38,13,165
51%
49%
Rural Population
MALE
FEMALE
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
District Wise Population
LITERACY RATE
In 2011 : 76.26 %
MALE: 81.69 %
FEMALE: 66.57%
Total Literates: 6,15,38281
MALES : 3,38,18,810
FEMALES : 2,77,19,471.
DISTRICTS RATE
(%)
PURBA MEDNIPUR 87.03
KOLKATA 86.31
NORTH 24
PARGANAS
84.06
HOWRAH 83.31
HOOGLY 81.8
HIGH LITERACY
RELIGION FOLLOWED:
Hinduism- 72.5%
Islam- 25.2%
Others- 2.3%
Major languages spoken in West Bengal are Bengali, Hindi, English.
LARGEST DISTRICT
District Square Km
South 24 Parganas 9960
Paschim Medinipur 9368
Barddhaman 7024
Bankura 6882
Puruliya 6259
Major Issues on which
People would Vote
Industrial Environment (Employment):
State's economic prospects after the turn of events in Singur
Despite Government's several attempts entrepreneurs are still not
participating
Government’s new industry policy
Central public sector undertakings like the SAIL and NTPC are investing
YC Deveshwar, ITC and Harsh Neotia, Ambuja Realty Group have
taken particular interest
The industry policy aims at generating 13.14 lakh jobs this fiscal and
extends incentives to industries for hiring youths from the State
employment bank.
The recruitment examination for the primary teachers was
mismanaged.
Overall job market is weakening due to lack of industries and lack of
fund with the Govt.
Electricity & Fuel:
The state continues to suffer from frequent power cuts and situation is
worsening day by day.
Steep rise in the fuel price has led to the demands of the public transports to
hike the fare and the city experiences frequent strikes and agitations.
Security Concerns (especially for women):
According to recently released report by the National Crime Records Bureau
(NCRB, West Bengal recorded 30,942 crime cases against women in
2012—the highest among states. They include 2,046 cases of rape, 4,168
of kidnapping, 593 of dowry deaths and 19,865 of domestic cruelty.
The state also faces a constant threat from the Maoists.
The over-all crime rate is also increasing in the state. Despite the best
efforts of the State Election Commission (SEC), pre
Panchayat election violence in West Bengal has increased sharply,
leading to a near breakdown in the law and order situation.
The recent death of Sudipto Gupta a prominent leader of the student wings of
left Front , in the police custody has raised a serious question about the
law and order situation of the state.
Scam & Scandal-
Saradha chitfund scandal, Trident Light Scam of Kolkata Municipal
Corporation, have rocked the political scenario in West Bengal.
In March, India’s corporate affairs minister Sachin Pilot told Parliament
that there have been complaints against as many as 73 companies
from West Bengal among 87 across India over Ponzi schemes.
The farmers are committing suicide because of non-remunerative prices
for their crops. The Govt. has many questions to answer on that.
Conditions in the Govt. hospital has deteriorated as multiple cases
of infant death made national headlines.
Making promises of launching projects in the face of major financial crisis:
While the state has deficit in fund, the Govt. makes huge investment in
beautification of the city, ignoring other major issues.
In December 2011, 172 people died after drinking illicit liquor in Bengal.
The state government offered Rs 2 lakh as compensation to the
families of the dead.
Gorkhaland Issue:
West Bengal state is going to face a complicated political scenario
in its foothills before next rural body election due to clear
polarization between two halves of the Tribal community.
The largest conflict is over the question of tribal's support to West
Bengal's ruling party Trinamool Congress(TMC).
While the mainstream tribal body Akhil Bharatiya Adivasi Vikash
Parishad (ABAVP) has decided to indirectly support TMC, the
breakaway group of tribals under the leadership of one John
Barla is opposing TMC but accepting support
from Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.
Congress-TMC coalition:
The recent breaking of coalition between Congress and TMC
is going to play an interesting role to propel the voting decision
of the mass.
One more chance to the two-year-old government Vs disillusionment with the Govt -
Research shows that section of the mass still believes that the ruling
Government. should be given more time while a substantial part of the
formerly pro-TMC voters are disillusioned with the dismal performance of the
Government
Lack of trust in Left Front:
The Left Front which was ousted from power after 34 years of ruling, is yet to get
back the mass support as not much of activity has been done by the party in
the last two years as an opposition.
Trade off between agriculture & industry:
The Trinamool Congress government, which once voiced its opposition to land
acquisition, is going in for the biggest land acquisition drive, set to acquire 3,
600 acres of land at Burdwan
The housing project is for the people evicted by Eastern Coalfields Limited (ECL)
as its mining projects has been re-approved by the Commerce and Industries
Department.
Land required for road construction and industry will be acquired through
negotiation with maximum considerations. Government holds it stand that
there will be no forced land acquisition.
Political Stances of the Major Parties
All India Trinamool Congress(AITC):-
• Portraying the party as a harbinger of Development by means of
Social, Infrastructure Spending
• Reinforcing its image as a supporter of pro-rural and pro-middle
class policy by means of such moves as not allowing Center to
increase prices of petrol, diesel and LPG and leaving its coalition
with UPA-II to show disagreement on FDI in retail.
• Recent tussle between Congress and Trinamool in regards to
election seat and position in New Jalpaiguri Municipal Region.
• As of now does not look like going to support either of the Central
big Party and going with the Third or Fourth front Alliance.
• As for state and Center both ways Trinamool will put there image
of Supporter of Pro-Rural or common man Supporting Policy,
thereby reaching out to mass.
 May act as the best alternative available as of now for
state and also can act as King Maker or Breaker in
upcoming 2014 election due to its rising impact on
regional grounds in East and North Eastern and hold
of substantial Seats in Lok Sabha.
 Try to bring some effective policy for the Industry
because till now policy brought in TMC has not bring in
much impact in the mind of People or Industry either
ways in terms of creating job opportunities or Revenue
or Debt –Ridden state.
Left Front: Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPI-M) and
Communist Party of India(CPI)
 Trying to take back lost grounds in West Bengal of so many
year of ruling supremacy by developing Image make over.
 Have to work upon recreating image in minds of people of
being reformist and change or bring in some editing in
ideology in terms of being Reform oriented and developing
pro rural policy.
INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (INC) and
BHARTIYA JANATA PARTY (BJP)
 In terms of West Bengal both party has almost least
presence and impact of their ideology implications in the
state therefore it used to hardly have any impact on the
Regional Politics.
 Congress has a little ground in Malda, New Jalpaiguri
Region but off late the same has been lost due to
ineffective working of its seating MLA’s and cadre in the
region.
 Lots of Bengal they can’t even as supporting policy due
to their size and reach out.
ANALSYSIS OF THE SURVEY
Critical Factors
8.2 8.2 7.8
6.5 6.8
5.7
3.8
3.0
2.1
3.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Determining Weightage
Improving infrastructure to promote Industrialization 0.15
Recovery from financial crisis 0.15
Scams & monitory frauds 0.14
Crimes against women 0.12
Issues related to Maoist infested areas 0.12
Fuel price hikes 0.10
Unemployment 0.07
Gorkhaland concerns 0.05
Education policies 0.04
Energy crisis 0.05
Comparative analysis of
Performance
3.039 2.956
2.821
2.502
3.015 2.951 2.969
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
Government: Single or
Coalition?
65.07
34.93
Single
Coalition
Preference for Single Government
56.9731.15
10.66 1.23
TMC
CPI(M)
CONGRESS
BJP
Preference for Coalition
Government
88.55
11.45
TMC-CONGRESS
TMC-BJP
Impact of split between TMC
and UPA
38.67
33.87
9.87
17.60
Yes
No
No impact
Can't say
Factors responsible for Split
24.82
26.0120.41
16.91
11.86 000
FDI
Diesel price hike
Disagreement over
Municipality Election
Limitation on subsidy
on Cylinder
NCTC
Supporting TMC’s stance on
FDI
59.73
40.27
Yes
No
Supporting TMC’s stance on
Diesel Price hike
64.8
35.2
Yes
No
Supporting TMC’s stance on
Municipality Election
50.6749.33
Yes
No
Supporting TMC’s stance on
Cylinder Subsidy
59.47
40.53
Yes
No
Supporting TMC’s stance on
NCTC
51.248.8
Yes
No
Lok Sabha Elections 2014:
TMC again?
54.6730.40
14.93
Yes
No
Can't say
Why Yes?
39.22
4.95
38.16
17.67 Genuine faith in TMC
Misappropriation of
power
Lack of trust in Left
Front
No strong 3rd Party
opposition
Why No?
43.71
27.15
13.91
15.23 Failure to keep up to
promises
Withdrawal from UPA
Left Front restoring
image partially
3rd Parties gaining
momentum
Other Alternatives
79.82
13.16
7.02
CPI(M)
CONGRESS
BJP
West bengal MR pre poll survey

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West bengal MR pre poll survey

  • 1. Presentation by: Kaustav Sankar Das | 33 Megha Bannerjee | 42 Pankaj Kumar Bothra | 53 Priyojeet Kumar | 61 Sourav Mitra | 85 Subhodeep Biswas | 86 Titir Ghosh | 91
  • 2. Introduction West Bengal is located in the eastern region of India. It is the 4th populous state in India with a total population of 91, 347, 736 ( Census 2011) spread over an area of Spread over 88,750 square Km. It shares its border with countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar . Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Sikkim, and Assam are the states which share borders with West Bengal. The state capital is Kolkata (formerly Calcutta). West Bengal encompasses two broad natural regions: the Gangetic Plain in the south and the sub-Himalayan and Himalayan area in the north.
  • 3. DEMOGRAPHICS Total population (census 2011)-91, 347, 736. Male: 46, 927, 389 Female : 44, 420, 347 Sex ratio: 950 per 1000 males. Child Sex Ratio : 956 Density / square Km : 1,028 * Kolkata has got the highest density of 24,306 per square Km 51% 49% PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION MALE FEMALE
  • 4. URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION RURAL POPULATION: 62,183,113. URBAN POPULATION: 29,093,002.  URBAN POPULATION MALE: 1,49,64,082 FEMALE: 1,41,28,920 MALE 51% FEMALE 49% 68% 32% POPULATION RURAL URBAN
  • 5.  RURAL POPULATION: MALE: 31,844,945 FEMALE: 30,338,168 HOUSEHOLDS Total: 2,03,80,315 Urban-65,67,150 Rural-1,38,13,165 51% 49% Rural Population MALE FEMALE
  • 7. LITERACY RATE In 2011 : 76.26 % MALE: 81.69 % FEMALE: 66.57% Total Literates: 6,15,38281 MALES : 3,38,18,810 FEMALES : 2,77,19,471. DISTRICTS RATE (%) PURBA MEDNIPUR 87.03 KOLKATA 86.31 NORTH 24 PARGANAS 84.06 HOWRAH 83.31 HOOGLY 81.8 HIGH LITERACY
  • 8. RELIGION FOLLOWED: Hinduism- 72.5% Islam- 25.2% Others- 2.3% Major languages spoken in West Bengal are Bengali, Hindi, English. LARGEST DISTRICT District Square Km South 24 Parganas 9960 Paschim Medinipur 9368 Barddhaman 7024 Bankura 6882 Puruliya 6259
  • 9. Major Issues on which People would Vote
  • 10. Industrial Environment (Employment): State's economic prospects after the turn of events in Singur Despite Government's several attempts entrepreneurs are still not participating Government’s new industry policy Central public sector undertakings like the SAIL and NTPC are investing YC Deveshwar, ITC and Harsh Neotia, Ambuja Realty Group have taken particular interest The industry policy aims at generating 13.14 lakh jobs this fiscal and extends incentives to industries for hiring youths from the State employment bank. The recruitment examination for the primary teachers was mismanaged. Overall job market is weakening due to lack of industries and lack of fund with the Govt.
  • 11. Electricity & Fuel: The state continues to suffer from frequent power cuts and situation is worsening day by day. Steep rise in the fuel price has led to the demands of the public transports to hike the fare and the city experiences frequent strikes and agitations. Security Concerns (especially for women): According to recently released report by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB, West Bengal recorded 30,942 crime cases against women in 2012—the highest among states. They include 2,046 cases of rape, 4,168 of kidnapping, 593 of dowry deaths and 19,865 of domestic cruelty. The state also faces a constant threat from the Maoists. The over-all crime rate is also increasing in the state. Despite the best efforts of the State Election Commission (SEC), pre Panchayat election violence in West Bengal has increased sharply, leading to a near breakdown in the law and order situation. The recent death of Sudipto Gupta a prominent leader of the student wings of left Front , in the police custody has raised a serious question about the law and order situation of the state.
  • 12. Scam & Scandal- Saradha chitfund scandal, Trident Light Scam of Kolkata Municipal Corporation, have rocked the political scenario in West Bengal. In March, India’s corporate affairs minister Sachin Pilot told Parliament that there have been complaints against as many as 73 companies from West Bengal among 87 across India over Ponzi schemes. The farmers are committing suicide because of non-remunerative prices for their crops. The Govt. has many questions to answer on that. Conditions in the Govt. hospital has deteriorated as multiple cases of infant death made national headlines. Making promises of launching projects in the face of major financial crisis: While the state has deficit in fund, the Govt. makes huge investment in beautification of the city, ignoring other major issues. In December 2011, 172 people died after drinking illicit liquor in Bengal. The state government offered Rs 2 lakh as compensation to the families of the dead.
  • 13. Gorkhaland Issue: West Bengal state is going to face a complicated political scenario in its foothills before next rural body election due to clear polarization between two halves of the Tribal community. The largest conflict is over the question of tribal's support to West Bengal's ruling party Trinamool Congress(TMC). While the mainstream tribal body Akhil Bharatiya Adivasi Vikash Parishad (ABAVP) has decided to indirectly support TMC, the breakaway group of tribals under the leadership of one John Barla is opposing TMC but accepting support from Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. Congress-TMC coalition: The recent breaking of coalition between Congress and TMC is going to play an interesting role to propel the voting decision of the mass.
  • 14. One more chance to the two-year-old government Vs disillusionment with the Govt - Research shows that section of the mass still believes that the ruling Government. should be given more time while a substantial part of the formerly pro-TMC voters are disillusioned with the dismal performance of the Government Lack of trust in Left Front: The Left Front which was ousted from power after 34 years of ruling, is yet to get back the mass support as not much of activity has been done by the party in the last two years as an opposition. Trade off between agriculture & industry: The Trinamool Congress government, which once voiced its opposition to land acquisition, is going in for the biggest land acquisition drive, set to acquire 3, 600 acres of land at Burdwan The housing project is for the people evicted by Eastern Coalfields Limited (ECL) as its mining projects has been re-approved by the Commerce and Industries Department. Land required for road construction and industry will be acquired through negotiation with maximum considerations. Government holds it stand that there will be no forced land acquisition.
  • 15. Political Stances of the Major Parties
  • 16. All India Trinamool Congress(AITC):- • Portraying the party as a harbinger of Development by means of Social, Infrastructure Spending • Reinforcing its image as a supporter of pro-rural and pro-middle class policy by means of such moves as not allowing Center to increase prices of petrol, diesel and LPG and leaving its coalition with UPA-II to show disagreement on FDI in retail. • Recent tussle between Congress and Trinamool in regards to election seat and position in New Jalpaiguri Municipal Region. • As of now does not look like going to support either of the Central big Party and going with the Third or Fourth front Alliance. • As for state and Center both ways Trinamool will put there image of Supporter of Pro-Rural or common man Supporting Policy, thereby reaching out to mass.
  • 17.  May act as the best alternative available as of now for state and also can act as King Maker or Breaker in upcoming 2014 election due to its rising impact on regional grounds in East and North Eastern and hold of substantial Seats in Lok Sabha.  Try to bring some effective policy for the Industry because till now policy brought in TMC has not bring in much impact in the mind of People or Industry either ways in terms of creating job opportunities or Revenue or Debt –Ridden state.
  • 18. Left Front: Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPI-M) and Communist Party of India(CPI)  Trying to take back lost grounds in West Bengal of so many year of ruling supremacy by developing Image make over.  Have to work upon recreating image in minds of people of being reformist and change or bring in some editing in ideology in terms of being Reform oriented and developing pro rural policy.
  • 19. INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (INC) and BHARTIYA JANATA PARTY (BJP)  In terms of West Bengal both party has almost least presence and impact of their ideology implications in the state therefore it used to hardly have any impact on the Regional Politics.  Congress has a little ground in Malda, New Jalpaiguri Region but off late the same has been lost due to ineffective working of its seating MLA’s and cadre in the region.  Lots of Bengal they can’t even as supporting policy due to their size and reach out.
  • 21. Critical Factors 8.2 8.2 7.8 6.5 6.8 5.7 3.8 3.0 2.1 3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
  • 22. Determining Weightage Improving infrastructure to promote Industrialization 0.15 Recovery from financial crisis 0.15 Scams & monitory frauds 0.14 Crimes against women 0.12 Issues related to Maoist infested areas 0.12 Fuel price hikes 0.10 Unemployment 0.07 Gorkhaland concerns 0.05 Education policies 0.04 Energy crisis 0.05
  • 23. Comparative analysis of Performance 3.039 2.956 2.821 2.502 3.015 2.951 2.969 0.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000
  • 25. Preference for Single Government 56.9731.15 10.66 1.23 TMC CPI(M) CONGRESS BJP
  • 27. Impact of split between TMC and UPA 38.67 33.87 9.87 17.60 Yes No No impact Can't say
  • 28. Factors responsible for Split 24.82 26.0120.41 16.91 11.86 000 FDI Diesel price hike Disagreement over Municipality Election Limitation on subsidy on Cylinder NCTC
  • 29. Supporting TMC’s stance on FDI 59.73 40.27 Yes No
  • 30. Supporting TMC’s stance on Diesel Price hike 64.8 35.2 Yes No
  • 31. Supporting TMC’s stance on Municipality Election 50.6749.33 Yes No
  • 32. Supporting TMC’s stance on Cylinder Subsidy 59.47 40.53 Yes No
  • 33. Supporting TMC’s stance on NCTC 51.248.8 Yes No
  • 34. Lok Sabha Elections 2014: TMC again? 54.6730.40 14.93 Yes No Can't say
  • 35. Why Yes? 39.22 4.95 38.16 17.67 Genuine faith in TMC Misappropriation of power Lack of trust in Left Front No strong 3rd Party opposition
  • 36. Why No? 43.71 27.15 13.91 15.23 Failure to keep up to promises Withdrawal from UPA Left Front restoring image partially 3rd Parties gaining momentum