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1. If elections were held today in Tripura, what could be the electoral outcome? Mention the caste-wise/tribe-wise support for
BJP, CPM, TMC, TIPRA, and INC. (2-3 pages)
Introduction
When there was no TMC and TIPRA MOTHA in the political picture of Tripura it was quite easier to say that the vote share of BJP in 20
23 would be higher compared to other parties like CPIM and INC due to weak opposition and also as BJP being in power both in the stat
e and the center but now after TMC stepping into the Tripura politics and capturing a 20% vote share in the Municipal election and the
TIPRA MOTHA led by royal scion Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma registering a thumping victory in the election to the Tripura Tri
bal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) wining 16 seats out of 30 while its ally, Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (INPT)
won 2 seats, it has now become difficult and a complex calculation to say who will win if the elections were held today or in 2023.
Current Scenario
In recent ADC election, TIPRA Motha have a clear dominance among ST community. Currently, BJP and IPFT have lost its ST votebank, a
nd only Reang and Chakma community supports BJP at present. 70% of the ST voters are inclined towards TIPRA. Pradyot Manikya Deb
barma and the demand for Greater Tipraland is the major factor behind their inclination towards TIPRA. TIPRA won the ADC election.
AS BJP + IPFT promises has not delivered on their promises, and so, lost the trust of the people.
Reangs support BJP due to the agreement "Bru Settlement" signed to settle the Reang refugees in the state by Home Ministry last year. B
JP agreed to settle the Reang refugees to get their support before the ADC election.
Kaystha, Baniyas and Nath support BJP currently. They were previously INC and CPIM votebank. However, due to poor performance of t
he CPIM government, and promises of the BJP, this voter base shifted to BJP. Certain vote share of SC are still inclined towards CPI-M as t
hey feel they had better facilities during CPI-M Govt than the current BJP Govt.
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2. If elections were held today in Tripura, what could be the electoral outcome? Mention the caste-wise/tribe-wise support for
BJP, CPM, TMC, TIPRA, and INC. (2-3 pages)
Organizational Strength Assessment
BJP
BJP is organisationally strong in accross the state.They have party offices every corner of each assemblies and also
have good ground presence and strong cadre base .BJP is seen quite active on ground recently celebrated Modi birt
hday across the state in all party offices and distributed modi photo frame to workers.
CPIM
CPIM is also quite strong in most parts of the state but in recent times many CPIM leaders are shifting parties so th
eir cadre is bit demotivativated and silent. Organisationally they are in better position than INC .CPIM is again came
to lime light due to recent clashes between CPIM and BJP
TIPRA-Motha TIPRA Motha is quite strong in ADC areas and ST reserved seats.They have a good support among tribals.
INC
INC lacks leadership in the state as well as district level, there is no ground presence and most of their cadre shifte
d to other parties.Oraganisationally weak.
IPFT
IPFT was strong in 8 assembly constituencies accross the state earlier but now their popularity reduced drastically,
Organisationally they are not so strong currently.
At present, irrespective of the caste proportion most of the people, may it be Bengali or tribals it seems they are not very much satisfied
with the four years rule of BJP in the state and that is a reality because people had high expectations from Biplab Deb and his party whil
e casting votes during 2018 Assembly Election. Most people supported BJP as they were not happy with the the CPIM govt as during the
25 years left era most tall leaders as well as the grass-root level leaders became heavily corrupted. The recently formed TIPRA MOTHA g
ot the support of most of the tribal voters as their sentiment lies towards Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma as their Prince. INC wher
eas has lost all of their vote share as all the top leaders have joined BJP or has made their own party such as Ex INC President Pradyot Ki
shore Manikya Debbarma’s TIPRA MOTHA (Tiprasa Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance) where he demands for a separate TIPRA
land and Pijush Kanti Biswas TDF (TRIPURA DEMOCRATIC FRONT) where he wants to see his son Pujan Kanti Biswas as a future leader
of the state. Page 2 of 7

3. If elections were held today in Tripura, what could be the electoral outcome? Mention the caste-wise/tribe-wise support for
BJP, CPM, TMC, TIPRA, and INC. (2-3 pages)
TMC as of now is making a base in Tripura but their cadre is very weak and people are waiting for the Sudip Ray Barman to shift in TM
C along with his 6 MLAs. Sudip Ray Barman got a very strong Cadre in Tripura and he is showing inclination towards TMC through his
speeches. It won’t be a surprise if Sudip Ray Barman joins TMC as he had switched to TMC in past in 2016 with 6 MLAs and was there f
or a while before joining BJP due to an ideological conflict with the CM of West Bengal and head of TMC Mamta Banarjee while support
ing the President’s face during the President election. Many people of the BJP might also shift towards TMC as they were promised man
y party positions in BJP or constitutional positions in the government but later on were declined due to internal party nepotism. BJP m
ight win if it plays the Hindutva politics as 83% of the populations in Tripura are Hindu voters and among them more than 50% suppor
ts Narendra Modi due to the Hindutva ideology.
Another important thing is that a significant portion of the Bengali voters which consists of 70% of the population of Tripura might sup
port TMC in the upcoming elections which can be seen from the recent electoral performance of the TMC. But as 20 out of the 60 asse
mbly seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs) it will be very difficult for TMC to win in the hilly areas where popularity of the
TIPRA MOTHA party is quite higher than any other parties in the state as most of the population in the hills are tribal population. TIPR
A MOTHA might be a deciding factor in the upcoming 2023 Assembly election if it manages to win more than 15 seats. In this situation
BJP should try to counter against Pradyot’s theme of THANSA which means equality amongst the tribals.
The BJP shall bring back tribal leaders who has been neglected by Pradyot and forecast them as a saviour of tribals in the ADC areas. T
he BJP shall also try to counter Pradyot against his dream of “Greater Tipra Land” and the BJP must involve the tribal leaders in the stat
e decision making policies. The BJP shall try to break the sentiment of Bengalis supporting TMC as it’s a Bengali party by exposing the d
irty politics in West Bengal because before TMC came in Tripura there has always been been a public perception that Mamta Banarjee d
oesn’t favour industrialization of the land which directly impacts job creation in the market for example she refused land in Singur of W
est Bengal for Tata Nano Manufacturing in 2008 which created a massive debate at that time and it is clear from the current scenario as
well where kolkata being the oldesst metro city is still lacking behind cities like Bengalore, Pune, Gurgoan and Hydrabad in the field Inf
ormation Technology(IT) Services.
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4. If elections were held today in Tripura, what could be the electoral outcome? Mention the caste-wise/tribe-wise support for
BJP, CPM, TMC, TIPRA, and INC. (2-3 pages)
At this point of time it is very much unclear that which party will form the government if the assembly election where held today in Trip
ura but it seems there is a high possibility of a coalition government in power whether it is now or in 2023. Here is a Cast Wise/Tribe wi
se break up of the population of Tripura.
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5. Identify 5 failure themes of the government and expand on them. (100 words each)
1. Lack of Grievance Redressal Mechanism
The scheme does not provide a clear design of transfers and a framework for effective grievance readdress. For example,
• In the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA), for instance, State governments still stru
ggle to resolve complaints and curb corruption.
• Government not able to complete the investigation with regard to Rosevally chit fund scam.
• Although the infamous raid on the marriage ceremony by then West Agartala DM was condemned by honorable Chief Ministe
r, but no significant action was taken against him. And recently he was reinstated.
2. Pomise of One Employment opportunity to every household and Regularisation of contractual govternment employees
The government to an extent has failed to ceate enough job opportunities to the unemployed youths of the state both in the public and
private sector. Also,
• The unemployment rate is as high as 14.7% one of the highest among all the states in India.
• The Contractual Government empoyees has not been regularised yet.
• 10,323 Government Teachers has lost their jobs and nothing solid in that regard has been done yet from government’s side.
• Government used multiplication factor of 2.25 over existing salary structure instead of 7th pay comission that was promised.
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6. Identify 5 failure themes of the government and expand on them. (100 words each)
3. Ethnic Conflict
Inability of the government to make cohation among tribes
• Allianation of tribes for the sake of securing the vote bank instead of making cohation among them.
• Inability of the government to fasttrack the Bru-Refugee settlement.
• Governemnt is not maintaining a transparant stand on the “Greter Tipra Land” Issue.
4. Dilapidated Healthcare Infrastructre
Poor condition of public healthcare infrastructre in the state and the susequesnt deterioriation due to covid-19 pendemic.
• Deficient infrastructure
• Deficient manpower
• Unmanageable patient load
• Equivocal quality of services
• High out of pocket expenditure
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7. Identify 5 failure themes of the government and expand on them. (100 words each)
5. Religious Faultlines in Tripura
Inability of the government to bridge the gap among different religious comunities
• Which has impacted the law and order situation in the state
• As a result of which recently we have seen that any fringe incident in neighbouring country easily creates flutter in Tripura.
• Decisions of the government like renaming the Ujjayanta Palace as the Tripura State Museum angered tribals. They saw it a m
easure to undermine the indigenous Manikya dynasty that once ruled the territory.
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Submitted by
Name: Bidhan Biswas
Phone: +91-9862831049
EmaiL: mrbidhanb@gmail.com
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