India’s Present Political Landscape
Congress+ rules 19 states in India as compared to 9 for
Anti-incumbencey losing sting Development becomes
a key poll plank with incumbents winning 64% of State
National party closest to majority may attract most
alliance partners, irrespective of any pre-poll differences
Uttar Pradesh to be battleground state for both INC
The Regional Party Wildcard
Regional parties have increased vote share over last
However, their increasing vote share has not
resulted in creation of Govt at Centre. (Govt. Only in
1996 to 1998)
Third Front has a chance of coming to power but has
had a track record of doing reforms
The NaMo Factor
• Polarisation of votes may benefit both BJP and INC
Co-relation to Markets
Pre-Election rallies observed in most years.
Post elections – Normally markets track Global or
Domestic Economic factors.
Markets have shown no preference for any political
outcome beyond the initial few weeks
Economic Policy - Limited or no change in the
direction of reforms as major political parties provide
Alliance Seat Share in Delhi
(2009 General Elections)
Regional Parties Gaining Clout
National parties have gradually lost
some ground with both INC and BJP
unable to garner simple majority in
last 2 decades.
INC sees a significant drop in its
tally from 1991 (244) to 1999 (114)
but resurrects itself in 2004 (145)
and 2009 (206).
SP and BSP have gradually
increased their clout, cornering 44
seats in 2009 between themselves
from mere 3 seats in 1991.
BJP - Uttar Pradesh To Be The
Uttar Pradesh – Once a force to
reckon with, the party has lost
significant ground since 1998.
With appointment of Amit
Shah a key Modi Aid as the
General Secretary in charge of
UP, Modi is likely to focus a lot
Understanding The “Caste Factor”
BJP captures the mind share among the Upper Caste electorate with the highest
vote share of 37.9% in 2009 elections.
The under-privileged strata across India have decisively favoured INC over other
parties, with the Grand Old Party scoring well with SCs, STs and Muslims in
The regional parties have demonstrated a strong grip over the Peasant Class and
Upper OBCs; Regional parties have also emerged as the preferred choice among
On the whole, INC has exhibited a good performance across castes, tribes and
Understanding The “Class Divide”
In 2009, INC displayed a well-rounded performance; equally distributed across all classes.
Historically, BJP has found favour with Upper Class and Middle Class.
In 2009 elections, interestingly INC defeated BJP across all classes, especially Upper Class
and Middle Class; BJP lost significant ground to ‘Others’ in the Middle Class segment.
Poor and Very Poor classes have historically preferred to vote for INC.
While INC allies have been able to hold on to their vote share, the BJP allies have lost
ground across all segments.
Left Parties lost heavily due to loss of Upper Class vote while gaining vote share among Poor
and Very Poor categories.
BSP gains vote share across all classes, especially in Middle Class - a BJP stronghold.
“Others” were the maximum gainers.
The Class Divide: Rural vs. Urban
Most parties bridge the urban rural divide well with
almost equal vote shares in both segments.
Only exceptions are Congress allies which have a
predominant urban presence.
The “Modi” Factor
The anointment of Modi as the chairman of Election
Committee for BJP has been the most keenly awaited
announcement for the 2014 General Election
Modi’s OBC background may be of importance in Hindi
Heartland though it is not an overtly used card as he
appeals to larger sections of society.
This would lead to polarization of votes with BJP gaining
40 seats (from earlier tally of 141 to 179) whereas INC
may stand to gain 23 seats (i.e. from earlier tally of 113 to
Muslim Vote Bank- The rise of Modi could polarise
Muslim vote bank which is the key in certain
constituency many of them in politically important Uttar
Post Godhra riots in 2002 no major political party
withdrew support to NDA Govt.
Therefore alignment of political parties towards an
alliance is likely to be driven by need for becoming part of
ruling alliance at Centre. Hence the largest political party
or group will invite attention from more suitors for post
Domestic Political and International
Economic Event 2009 Elections:
Markets witnessed ‘Super Rally’ – as
UPA retains power without support
of Left. This also coincided with the
global liquidity rally which lasted till
GDP growth rate at const. MP
GDP growth rate at const. MP
2009 Elections: INC-led
Alliance (UPA) wins 262
seats forms Government:
Manmohan Singh led
Q.1. What are the factors you shall
consider while electing your candidates?
Secular 58 16%
National Safety 133 36%
Person of your
Leader/Candidate 16 4%
Secular , 58
oriented , 126
Person of your
region/cast , 40
Leader/Candidate , 16
Q.2. According to you which political
party is most promising for future?
SP 91 24%
BSP 62 17%
BJP 118 32%
Congress 73 20%
Other 29 8%
SP , 91
BSP , 62
BJP , 118
Congress , 73
Q.3. Which issue influences you to vote
in an election?
Corruption 54 14%
Employment 160 43%
Basic Facilities 98 26%
Crime 37 10%
Education 24 6%
Corruption , 54
Employment , 160
Basic Facilities , 98
Crime , 37
Education , 24
Q.4. What Do you prefer in the
Young Thoughts 347 53%
Experienced Leader 304 47%
Young Thoughts , 347
Experienced Leader , 304
Q.5 What is your opinion about the
format of the Government?
Coalition 211 33%
Majority 433 67%
Coalition , 211
Majority , 433
Q.6. Who will play the role of mass
leader in a better way in 2014 polls?
Mayawati 190 29%
Ajit Singh 124 19%
Other 219 34%
Yadav , 115
Mayawati , 190
Ajit Singh , 124
Other , 219
Q.7. Will Ram Mandir Issue be a
turning point in the 2014 polls?
Yes 262 40%
No 386 60%
Yes , 262
No , 386
Q.8. What is your assessment of the work
done by Samajwadi Party led government at
the Centre in last two-and-half-years?
Very Satisfied 56 9%
Somewhat satisfied 181 28%
Somewhat dissatisfied 195 30%
Fully dissatisfied 151 23%
Can’t Say 68 10%
Q.9. If you wish to compare four major
political parties in UP - Samajwadi Part
(SP), Bahujan Samaj Party
(BSP), Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)
and Congress. In your opinion which among
them are better for the following:
For Backwards 273 44%
For Dalits 63 10%
For Muslims 193 31%
For Poor 64 10%
For Women 24 4%
Bahujan Samaj Party
For Backwards 94 15%
For Dalits 408 67%
For Muslims 54 9%
For Poor 42 7%
For Women 13 2%
Bhartiya Janta Party
For Backwards 177 30%
For Dalits 78 13%
For Muslims 115 19%
For Poor 174 29%
For Women 52 9%
For Backwards 109 18%
For Dalits 92 15%
For Muslims 244 40%
For Poor 112 18%
For Women 52 9%
Q.11. Some people believe that crime in UP has decreased
from what it was a few years back, others say that it has
increased from what it was earlier and some say that there
is no difference. What is your opinion about it?
Crime decreased 80 12%
Crime increased 290 45%
No changes 195 30%
Can't say 84 13%
Crime increased , 290No changes , 195
Can't say , 84
As research has shown, 36% of people say that they would elect a candidate
primarily on the basis of National Safety. Though they are closely followed by
34% voters who may chose a candidate on the basis of Development. The
Leader seem to posses the least parameter to chose a candidate.
32% people believe that BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) will win the next UP
elections. The current running party SP (Samajwadi Party) follows next with
24%. And the party at the centre, Congress, is at third spot with 20%.
The current scenario of the country is completely evident with the way
people have chosen Employment as a primary influential criteria of voting
with 43%.. Shockingly Education falls way behind with just 6%.
People seem to be more inclined towards Young Thoughts as 53% of
sample voted for them in comparison to experienced leader. Current CM
of UP is a young ministeer
There is a high belief and want towards a majority government. Currently
running government in UP is also in full majority.
33% believe that none of the present political celebrity in UP to handle
UP in future. So highest number of vote, i.e., 34% has gone to the ‘other’
60% of voters believe that Ram Mandir, ever after so many years may play
a role in the election of UP-2014.
A sense of dissatisfaction has been deduced from this voting for the work
done by SP government in last two and half years. 30% people are
‘somewhat dissatisfied’. However a near 28% people are ‘somewhat
Backwards seem to be getting a huge support from SP – 44%.
Dalits seem to be getting a complete support from BSP – 44%.
BJP strikes a balance of 30% with Backwards and Poor.
Congress seems to be more inclined towards Muslims with a support of
As far as crime is concerned, 45% people still believe that crime has only
increased with every passing year, not only in UP, but in all over India.