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Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index gained 190.18 points, or
1.60% during the week, to close at 12,092.25. Market capitalization
increased by 1.75% to reach QR644.87 billion (bn) as compared to
QR633.78bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed
companies, 28 companies ended the week higher, while 14 fell and 1
remained unchanged. Aamal (AHCS) was the best performing stock for
the week, with a gain of 7.12% on 5.4mn (million) shares traded. On
the other hand, Ahli Bank (ABQK) was the worst performing stock with
a decline of 8.82% on 402 shares traded only.
Industries Qatar (IQCD), Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and QNB Group
(QNBK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gain.
IQCD was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase,
contributing 53.84 points to the index’s weekly gain of 190.18 points.
MARK added 47.87 points to the weekly index gain. Further, QNBK
tacked on 46.30 points to the index’s gain. On the other hand, Ezdan
Holding Group (ERES) and Qatar Insurance (QATI) contributed
negatively to the index. ERES and QATI shaved off 97.95 and 20.93
points from the index, respectively.
Trading value during the week decreased by 37.60% to reach
QR3.10bn vs. QR4.97bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
30.79% of the total trading value. The Real Estate sector was the
second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for
29.63% of the total trading value. Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES) was
the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of
QR436.2mn.
Trading volume decreased by 48.85% to reach 77.66mn shares vs.
151.83mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions
decreased by 13.73% to reach 32,819 transactions versus 38,040
transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading
volume, accounting for 45.08%, followed by the Banks & Financial
Services sector, which accounted for 19.30% of the overall trading
volume. ERES was the top volume traded stock during the week with
total traded volume of 21.5mn shares.
Foreign institutions turned bearish during the week with net
selling of QR186.1mn vs. net buying of QR1.22bn in the prior
week. Qatari institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR357.6mn
vs net selling of QR1.26bn the week before. Foreign retail investors
turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR37.5mn vs. net buying
of QR497.08 thousand in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned
bearish with net selling of QR134.0mn vs. net buying of QR46.23mn
the week before. In 2015 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net
basis) ~$510.6mn worth of Qatari equities (based on Wednesday’s
closing).
Market Indicators
Week ended
June 4, 2015
Week ended
May 28, 2015
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 3,101.6 4,970.8 (37.6)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 644,867.8 633,781.6 1.7
Volume (mn) 77.7 151.8 (48.8)
Number of Transactions 32,819 38,040 (13.7)
Companies Traded 43 43 0.0
Market Breadth 28:14 3:38 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 18,791.98 1.6 0.4 2.6
All Share Index 3,229.62 1.4 0.3 2.5
Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,198.29 2.1 1.1 (0.2)
Industrials 3,933.71 3.6 2.1 (2.6)
Transportation 2,487.71 1.9 1.4 7.3
Real Estate 2,653.88 (3.0) (2.9) 18.2
Insurance 4,767.77 (2.3) (1.9) 20.4
Telecoms 1,222.77 4.4 (3.1) (17.7)
Consumer 7,284.95 2.0 0.4 5.5
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,627.70 2.2 0.6 12.8
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QSE)* 12,092.25 1.6 0.4 (1.6) 892.94 177,145.2 12.7 1.9 4.2
Dubai 4,032.24 0.8 2.8 6.8 845.96 98,774.0#
9.3 1.5 5.4
Abu Dhabi 4,587.23 1.6 1.3 1.3 273.25 123,165.9 11.6 1.5 4.9
Saudi Arabia#
9,678.75 (0.8) (0.1) 16.1 8,296.57 568,214.1 20.3 2.3 2.8
Kuwait 6,323.84 0.1 0.5 (3.2) 313.87 96,522.0 16.1 1.1 4.2
Oman 6,462.00 1.1 1.2 1.9 50.70 24,711.3 9.3 1.4 4.1
Bahrain 1,367.06 0.1 0.2 (4.2) 38.37 21,380.0 8.8 1.0 5.1
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any;
#
Data as of June 3, 2015)
12,048.26
12,176.49
12,184.80
12,182.09
12,092.25
0
12,500,000
25,000,000
11,950
12,075
12,200
31-May 1-Jun 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun
Volume QSE Index
1.6% 1.6%
1.1%
0.8%
0.1% 0.1%
(0.8%)
(1.0%)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Qatar(QSE)*
AbuDhabi
Oman
Dubai
Kuwait
Bahrain
SaudiArabia
Page 2 of 6
News
Economic News
 QCB auctions T-bills worth QR4bn on June 2 – The Qatar
Central Bank (QCB) has auctioned treasury bills worth QR4bn
on June 2, for which it received bids totaling QR8.51bn. T-bills
worth QR2bn with a three-month maturity period were
auctioned at a yield of 0.92%. T-bills worth QR1bn with a six-
month maturity period were sold at a yield of 0.94%, while T-
bills worth QR1bn with a nine-month maturity period were
auctioned at a yield of 1.04%. (QCB)
Market & Corporate News
 Vodafone Qatar earnings bang in line with our estimate but
continued ARPU erosion due to prepay competition
remains a concern; stay Reduce – Vodafone Qatar (VFQS)
reported a net loss of QR66mn for the quarter ended March
2015, which was right in line with our estimate of QR65mn.
Revenue however dipped 3% QoQ (up 4% YoY) to QR571.2mn
vs. our estimate of QR611.6mn. While mobile subs at 1.444mn
were in line with our estimate of 1.445mn, quarterly ARPU fell
yet again, down 4% QoQ from QR120 to QR115 and a
significant 10% YoY fall from QR128; we had been expecting a
flattish QR120 in ARPU for the March quarter. Profitability
metrics improved with gross margin of 53.5% (3QFY2015:
50.1%/our estimate: 50.1%) and EBITDA margin: 23.5%
(3QFY2015: 21.3%/our estimate: 22.1%) driven by costs
enhancements and scale benefits. Dividends of QR0.21 also in
line with our expectation of QR0.20. This translates into a yield
of 1.3% at yesterday’s close of QR16.73. VFQS declared a
dividend of QR0.17 in FY2014. Still room to fall – management
believes 1QFY2016 top-line will decline YoY. VFQS reported
QR584.8mn in 1Q2015 revenue. This would imply a further
downward adjustment in our model. Pricing pressure in prepay
since June 2014 has taken QR600mn off the mobile market
and has hurt Vodafone disproportionately. New move by ORDS
in postpay will hurt further. VFQ has seen good traction from
the recently introduced Red plan offering 10GB local internet,
unlimited local calls/SMS for QR250/month. However,
competition’s move to cut postpay pricing by 30% (QR55/month
and above for one year) could impact ARPUs further.
Recommendation and valuation: We rate VFQS a Reduce with
a price target of QR14.60. The stock continues to benefit from
buying appetite fueled by the company’s transformation into a
fully Shari’ah-compliant business. However, VFQS remains
expensive at close to 16x FY2018e EV/EBITDA. (QNBFS
Research, Company Financials)
 GDI takes steps to employ idle drilling rigs – Gulf Drilling
International (GDI), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf
International Services (GISS), has leased out one of the two
jack-up drilling rigs whose contracts had gone idle and is also
considering leasing out the second one. GDI said that two of its
rigs were idle but one had already been booked for short-term
work in 2015 and a long-term contract starting in 1Q2016. The
second rig is also being considered for work that is scheduled
to commence in early 2016. The company also said its
customers had negotiated cuts of between 10-15% in daily
operating rates of drilling rigs. (QSE, Zawya)
 SGSS signs cooperation agreement with QNB Al Ahli –
Societe Generale Securities Services (SGSS) has signed a
cooperation agreement with Qatar National Bank Al Ahli (QNB
Al Ahli), a subsidiary of QNB Group (QNBK), to provide
securities services to international institutional investors and
corporate enterprises in Egypt. The agreement is part of SGSS’
strategy to develop its overall securities services offer to the
increasing number of international investors and corporate
enterprises present in the country. QNB Al Ahli will combine its
local expertise and knowledge of the Egyptian market with
SGSS’ commercial support, operational management and
extensive international coverage. Meanwhile, QNBK received
several awards from two banking magazines, The Asian Banker
and Banker Middle East, in recognition of its “exceptional
banking performance and continued progress in 2014”.
(SocGen Press Release, Gulf-Times.com)
 Moody's assigns CR Assessments to seven Qatari banks –
Moody's Investors Service has assigned Counterparty Risk
Assessments (CR Assessments) to seven Qatari banks, in line
with its revised bank rating methodology. Moody's also affirmed
the subordinated debt ratings of two Qatari banks and withdrew
the outlooks on these subordinated instruments for its own
business reasons. The CR Assessments assigned to seven
banks are – Al Khalij Commercial Bank {(A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr)},
Barwa Bank {A1(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, The Commercial Bank of
Qatar {Aa3(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, Doha Bank {A1(cr)/Prime-1(cr)},
Masraf Al Rayan {A1(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, Qatar International
Islamic Bank {Prime-1(cr)} and Qatar National Bank
{Aa2(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}. (GulfBase.com)
 QSE, CBQK working together to empower SMEs in Qatar –
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) and the Commercial Bank
(CBQK) have jointly held a workshop for SMEs (small and
medium-sized enterprises) about opportunities to list on the
Qatar Exchange Venture Market (QEVM). The workshop
highlighted growth opportunities for SMEs seeking to be part of
the QEVM, which joins the QSE Main Market, and provides a
revolutionary new platform for SMEs to pursue their
entrepreneurial visions and also benefit from access to capital
through listing. According to QSE CEO Rashid bin Ali Al-
Mansoori, QEVM is all set to welcome SMEs from the wider
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East & North
Africa (Mena) regions as well. (QSE)
 GDI appoints new CEO – Gulf Drilling International (GDI), a
wholly owned subsidiary of Gulf International Services, has
appointed Mr. Mubarak Awaida Al-Hajri as its new CEO with
effect from June 14, 2015. Mr. Al-Hajri has a long experience
with Qatar Petroleum, where he worked way up through
different disciplines and management levels. (QSE)
 Deloitte: Qatar to award projects worth $21bn in 2015 –
According to global audit and consulting firm Deloitte’s latest
research note on the GCC construction sector, Qatar’s focus on
infrastructure development will continue as an estimated $21bn
worth infrastructure projects are expected to be awarded in
2015 itself. Qatar Rail (QRail) is expected to award two projects
worth $18bn, on a cumulative basis, in 2015. Another two mega
projects which are expected to be awarded in 2015 are: one for
the new Qatar Economic Zone budgeted at $3bn, which is one
of the three new planned economic zones mainly focusing on
logistics & air freight, and Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s
Idd-e-Shargi North Dome Expansion Phase 5, again budgeted
for $3bn. The report forecasts that projects worth $172bn are
planned and underway in the GCC region in 2015. Some of the
major GCC projects are: the UAE’s Al Maktoum International
Airport expansion, currently budgeted at $32bn and an
industrial project in Abu Dhabi for Tacaamol - Al-Gharbia
Chemicals Industrial City, planned at $20bn. (Peninsula Qatar)
Page 3 of 6
Qatar Stock Exchange
Top Gainers Top Decliners
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
7.1%
6.5% 6.4%
6.1%
5.5%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
Aamal Dlala Holding Al Meera
Consumer
Goods
Qatar
Electricity and
Water
Vodafone
Qatar
-8.8%
-6.7%
-3.4%
-1.7% -1.5%
-12.0%
-8.0%
-4.0%
0.0%
Al Ahli Bank Ezdan Real
Estate
Qatar Insurance Islamic Holding
Group
Qatar Industrial
Manufacturing
436.2
379.9
273.9
256.0
212.7
0.0
150.0
300.0
450.0
Barwa Real
Estate
Ezdan Real
Estate
QNB Group Masraf Al
Rayan
Gulf
International
Services
21.5
9.3
8.5
5.6 5.4
0.0
8.0
16.0
24.0
Ezdan Real
Estate
Vodafone Qatar Barwa Real
Estate
Masraf Al Rayan Aamal
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
39.04% 43.36%
24.86% 13.33%
13.46%
14.67%
22.64% 28.64%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
1,982
1,120
1,758
1,343
224
(224)
(500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
Page 4 of 6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
Despite selling pressure, the QSE Index managed to gain 1.6% from last week’s closing. Due to the flat line the Index is creating, technical indicators are
losing signal. As a result, the Index might oscillate between the expected resistance level of 12,800 and the support level of 11,800. It should be noted that
staying above the 11,800 level is paramount in order for the index to remain healthy over the medium to long term.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Page 5 of 6
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name
Price
(June 04)
% Change 5-
Day
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 193.00 2.71 (9.35) 135,048 12.6 2.5 3.9
Qatar Islamic Bank 107.00 0.19 4.70 25,283 15.3 2.4 4.0
Commercial Bank of Qatar 54.90 1.67 (11.84) 17,932 10.0 1.1 5.8
Doha Bank 54.40 1.68 (4.56) 14,055 10.2 1.3 7.4
Al Ahli Bank 42.40 (8.82) (14.58) 7,705 12.4 1.9 3.0
Qatar International Islamic Bank 80.10 2.69 (1.96) 12,125 14.6 2.4 5.0
Masraf Al Rayan 46.40 4.27 4.98 34,800 16.7 3.3 3.8
Al Khaliji Bank 22.62 2.82 2.59 8,143 13.5 1.5 4.4
National Leasing 21.22 (0.05) 6.10 1,050 37.9 0.9 4.0
Dlala Holding 27.75 6.53 (17.01) 789 14.0 2.7 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 16.00 1.27 3.90 504 16.4 1.5 5.0
Islamic Holding Group 137.40 (1.65) 10.36 550 33.2 9.2 2.2
Banking and Financial Services 257,983
Zad Holding 99.10 0.00 17.98 1,296 11.7 1.6 4.0
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 17.39 (0.97) 71.33 201 N/A 1.2 N/A
Salam International Investment 13.79 (0.07) (13.00) 1,576 19.7 1.0 4.4
Medicare Group 178.90 5.24 52.91 5,035 25.6 6.0 1.0
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 45.00 (1.42) 12.50 283 22.7 2.0 2.0
Qatar Fuel 173.00 0.12 (15.32) 14,611 12.8 2.4 5.2
Qatar Meat and Livestock 59.60 0.51 (1.32) 1,073 19.9 4.1 4.2
Al Meera Consumer Goods 242.10 6.42 21.05 4,842 21.0 3.9 3.7
Consumer Goods and Services 28,917
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 45.80 (1.51) 5.65 2,176 14.1 1.6 6.6
Qatar National Cement 120.00 (0.83) 0.00 6,481 15.6 2.6 3.0
Industries Qatar 139.50 4.03 (16.96) 84,398 14.8 2.8 5.0
Qatari Investors Group 53.30 2.30 28.74 6,627 28.7 3.0 1.4
Qatar Electricity and Water 225.90 6.06 20.48 24,849 15.3 4.0 3.3
Mannai Corp. 113.10 0.98 3.76 5,160 9.5 2.5 5.3
Aamal 15.20 7.12 5.07 9,576 16.2 1.4 6.3
Gulf International Services 80.10 3.76 (17.51) 14,886 9.4 4.2 6.9
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 24.90 (0.40) -15.6 31,282 21.7 2.4 4.4
Industrials 185,435
Qatar Insurance 97.50 (3.37) 23.76 18,001 18.3 3.2 2.2
Doha Insurance 26.20 (0.76) (9.66) 1,310 12.1 1.2 3.8
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 56.00 0.18 9.15 4,455 4.9 0.8 3.1
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 44.00 2.80 (0.39) 1,123 15.1 1.8 3.0
Qatar Islamic Insurance 82.80 (0.24) 4.81 1,242 14.8 4.4 4.8
Insurance 26,131
United Development 23.49 3.30 (0.42) 8,317 15.5 0.8 5.3
Barw a Real Estate 51.30 2.60 22.43 19,962 3.4 1.1 4.3
Ezdan Real Estate 17.05 (6.68) 14.28 45,225 31.8 1.5 2.3
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 18.80 (1.00) 3.08 1,974 11.4 1.5 1.5
Real Estate 75,479
Qatar Telecom 91.90 3.96 (25.83) 29,437 16.9 1.4 4.4
Vodafone Qatar 16.45 5.45 0.00 13,907 N/A 2.5 1.0
Telecoms 43,344
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 99.40 2.47 (0.10) 11,384 10.6 0.9 5.5
Gulf Warehousing 75.00 3.02 32.98 3,567 23.5 4.2 2.0
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 22.55 1.12 (2.38) 12,628 13.7 4.3 5.3
Transportation 27,579
Qatar Exchange 644,868
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the
Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is
not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability
whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically
engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report
has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any
representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis,
expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical
technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment
decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
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QNBFS Daily Technical Trader Qatar - September 07, 2023 التحليل الفني اليومي ...
 

Weekly market report

  • 1. ` Page 1 of 6 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index gained 190.18 points, or 1.60% during the week, to close at 12,092.25. Market capitalization increased by 1.75% to reach QR644.87 billion (bn) as compared to QR633.78bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 28 companies ended the week higher, while 14 fell and 1 remained unchanged. Aamal (AHCS) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 7.12% on 5.4mn (million) shares traded. On the other hand, Ahli Bank (ABQK) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 8.82% on 402 shares traded only. Industries Qatar (IQCD), Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and QNB Group (QNBK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gain. IQCD was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase, contributing 53.84 points to the index’s weekly gain of 190.18 points. MARK added 47.87 points to the weekly index gain. Further, QNBK tacked on 46.30 points to the index’s gain. On the other hand, Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) and Qatar Insurance (QATI) contributed negatively to the index. ERES and QATI shaved off 97.95 and 20.93 points from the index, respectively. Trading value during the week decreased by 37.60% to reach QR3.10bn vs. QR4.97bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 30.79% of the total trading value. The Real Estate sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 29.63% of the total trading value. Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR436.2mn. Trading volume decreased by 48.85% to reach 77.66mn shares vs. 151.83mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 13.73% to reach 32,819 transactions versus 38,040 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 45.08%, followed by the Banks & Financial Services sector, which accounted for 19.30% of the overall trading volume. ERES was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 21.5mn shares. Foreign institutions turned bearish during the week with net selling of QR186.1mn vs. net buying of QR1.22bn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR357.6mn vs net selling of QR1.26bn the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR37.5mn vs. net buying of QR497.08 thousand in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bearish with net selling of QR134.0mn vs. net buying of QR46.23mn the week before. In 2015 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$510.6mn worth of Qatari equities (based on Wednesday’s closing). Market Indicators Week ended June 4, 2015 Week ended May 28, 2015 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 3,101.6 4,970.8 (37.6) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 644,867.8 633,781.6 1.7 Volume (mn) 77.7 151.8 (48.8) Number of Transactions 32,819 38,040 (13.7) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 28:14 3:38 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 18,791.98 1.6 0.4 2.6 All Share Index 3,229.62 1.4 0.3 2.5 Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,198.29 2.1 1.1 (0.2) Industrials 3,933.71 3.6 2.1 (2.6) Transportation 2,487.71 1.9 1.4 7.3 Real Estate 2,653.88 (3.0) (2.9) 18.2 Insurance 4,767.77 (2.3) (1.9) 20.4 Telecoms 1,222.77 4.4 (3.1) (17.7) Consumer 7,284.95 2.0 0.4 5.5 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,627.70 2.2 0.6 12.8 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 12,092.25 1.6 0.4 (1.6) 892.94 177,145.2 12.7 1.9 4.2 Dubai 4,032.24 0.8 2.8 6.8 845.96 98,774.0# 9.3 1.5 5.4 Abu Dhabi 4,587.23 1.6 1.3 1.3 273.25 123,165.9 11.6 1.5 4.9 Saudi Arabia# 9,678.75 (0.8) (0.1) 16.1 8,296.57 568,214.1 20.3 2.3 2.8 Kuwait 6,323.84 0.1 0.5 (3.2) 313.87 96,522.0 16.1 1.1 4.2 Oman 6,462.00 1.1 1.2 1.9 50.70 24,711.3 9.3 1.4 4.1 Bahrain 1,367.06 0.1 0.2 (4.2) 38.37 21,380.0 8.8 1.0 5.1 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; # Data as of June 3, 2015) 12,048.26 12,176.49 12,184.80 12,182.09 12,092.25 0 12,500,000 25,000,000 11,950 12,075 12,200 31-May 1-Jun 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun Volume QSE Index 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% (0.8%) (1.0%) 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Qatar(QSE)* AbuDhabi Oman Dubai Kuwait Bahrain SaudiArabia
  • 2. Page 2 of 6 News Economic News  QCB auctions T-bills worth QR4bn on June 2 – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has auctioned treasury bills worth QR4bn on June 2, for which it received bids totaling QR8.51bn. T-bills worth QR2bn with a three-month maturity period were auctioned at a yield of 0.92%. T-bills worth QR1bn with a six- month maturity period were sold at a yield of 0.94%, while T- bills worth QR1bn with a nine-month maturity period were auctioned at a yield of 1.04%. (QCB) Market & Corporate News  Vodafone Qatar earnings bang in line with our estimate but continued ARPU erosion due to prepay competition remains a concern; stay Reduce – Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) reported a net loss of QR66mn for the quarter ended March 2015, which was right in line with our estimate of QR65mn. Revenue however dipped 3% QoQ (up 4% YoY) to QR571.2mn vs. our estimate of QR611.6mn. While mobile subs at 1.444mn were in line with our estimate of 1.445mn, quarterly ARPU fell yet again, down 4% QoQ from QR120 to QR115 and a significant 10% YoY fall from QR128; we had been expecting a flattish QR120 in ARPU for the March quarter. Profitability metrics improved with gross margin of 53.5% (3QFY2015: 50.1%/our estimate: 50.1%) and EBITDA margin: 23.5% (3QFY2015: 21.3%/our estimate: 22.1%) driven by costs enhancements and scale benefits. Dividends of QR0.21 also in line with our expectation of QR0.20. This translates into a yield of 1.3% at yesterday’s close of QR16.73. VFQS declared a dividend of QR0.17 in FY2014. Still room to fall – management believes 1QFY2016 top-line will decline YoY. VFQS reported QR584.8mn in 1Q2015 revenue. This would imply a further downward adjustment in our model. Pricing pressure in prepay since June 2014 has taken QR600mn off the mobile market and has hurt Vodafone disproportionately. New move by ORDS in postpay will hurt further. VFQ has seen good traction from the recently introduced Red plan offering 10GB local internet, unlimited local calls/SMS for QR250/month. However, competition’s move to cut postpay pricing by 30% (QR55/month and above for one year) could impact ARPUs further. Recommendation and valuation: We rate VFQS a Reduce with a price target of QR14.60. The stock continues to benefit from buying appetite fueled by the company’s transformation into a fully Shari’ah-compliant business. However, VFQS remains expensive at close to 16x FY2018e EV/EBITDA. (QNBFS Research, Company Financials)  GDI takes steps to employ idle drilling rigs – Gulf Drilling International (GDI), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf International Services (GISS), has leased out one of the two jack-up drilling rigs whose contracts had gone idle and is also considering leasing out the second one. GDI said that two of its rigs were idle but one had already been booked for short-term work in 2015 and a long-term contract starting in 1Q2016. The second rig is also being considered for work that is scheduled to commence in early 2016. The company also said its customers had negotiated cuts of between 10-15% in daily operating rates of drilling rigs. (QSE, Zawya)  SGSS signs cooperation agreement with QNB Al Ahli – Societe Generale Securities Services (SGSS) has signed a cooperation agreement with Qatar National Bank Al Ahli (QNB Al Ahli), a subsidiary of QNB Group (QNBK), to provide securities services to international institutional investors and corporate enterprises in Egypt. The agreement is part of SGSS’ strategy to develop its overall securities services offer to the increasing number of international investors and corporate enterprises present in the country. QNB Al Ahli will combine its local expertise and knowledge of the Egyptian market with SGSS’ commercial support, operational management and extensive international coverage. Meanwhile, QNBK received several awards from two banking magazines, The Asian Banker and Banker Middle East, in recognition of its “exceptional banking performance and continued progress in 2014”. (SocGen Press Release, Gulf-Times.com)  Moody's assigns CR Assessments to seven Qatari banks – Moody's Investors Service has assigned Counterparty Risk Assessments (CR Assessments) to seven Qatari banks, in line with its revised bank rating methodology. Moody's also affirmed the subordinated debt ratings of two Qatari banks and withdrew the outlooks on these subordinated instruments for its own business reasons. The CR Assessments assigned to seven banks are – Al Khalij Commercial Bank {(A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, Barwa Bank {A1(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, The Commercial Bank of Qatar {Aa3(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, Doha Bank {A1(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, Masraf Al Rayan {A1(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}, Qatar International Islamic Bank {Prime-1(cr)} and Qatar National Bank {Aa2(cr)/Prime-1(cr)}. (GulfBase.com)  QSE, CBQK working together to empower SMEs in Qatar – The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) and the Commercial Bank (CBQK) have jointly held a workshop for SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) about opportunities to list on the Qatar Exchange Venture Market (QEVM). The workshop highlighted growth opportunities for SMEs seeking to be part of the QEVM, which joins the QSE Main Market, and provides a revolutionary new platform for SMEs to pursue their entrepreneurial visions and also benefit from access to capital through listing. According to QSE CEO Rashid bin Ali Al- Mansoori, QEVM is all set to welcome SMEs from the wider Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East & North Africa (Mena) regions as well. (QSE)  GDI appoints new CEO – Gulf Drilling International (GDI), a wholly owned subsidiary of Gulf International Services, has appointed Mr. Mubarak Awaida Al-Hajri as its new CEO with effect from June 14, 2015. Mr. Al-Hajri has a long experience with Qatar Petroleum, where he worked way up through different disciplines and management levels. (QSE)  Deloitte: Qatar to award projects worth $21bn in 2015 – According to global audit and consulting firm Deloitte’s latest research note on the GCC construction sector, Qatar’s focus on infrastructure development will continue as an estimated $21bn worth infrastructure projects are expected to be awarded in 2015 itself. Qatar Rail (QRail) is expected to award two projects worth $18bn, on a cumulative basis, in 2015. Another two mega projects which are expected to be awarded in 2015 are: one for the new Qatar Economic Zone budgeted at $3bn, which is one of the three new planned economic zones mainly focusing on logistics & air freight, and Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s Idd-e-Shargi North Dome Expansion Phase 5, again budgeted for $3bn. The report forecasts that projects worth $172bn are planned and underway in the GCC region in 2015. Some of the major GCC projects are: the UAE’s Al Maktoum International Airport expansion, currently budgeted at $32bn and an industrial project in Abu Dhabi for Tacaamol - Al-Gharbia Chemicals Industrial City, planned at $20bn. (Peninsula Qatar)
  • 3. Page 3 of 6 Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 7.1% 6.5% 6.4% 6.1% 5.5% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% Aamal Dlala Holding Al Meera Consumer Goods Qatar Electricity and Water Vodafone Qatar -8.8% -6.7% -3.4% -1.7% -1.5% -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% Al Ahli Bank Ezdan Real Estate Qatar Insurance Islamic Holding Group Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 436.2 379.9 273.9 256.0 212.7 0.0 150.0 300.0 450.0 Barwa Real Estate Ezdan Real Estate QNB Group Masraf Al Rayan Gulf International Services 21.5 9.3 8.5 5.6 5.4 0.0 8.0 16.0 24.0 Ezdan Real Estate Vodafone Qatar Barwa Real Estate Masraf Al Rayan Aamal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 39.04% 43.36% 24.86% 13.33% 13.46% 14.67% 22.64% 28.64% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 1,982 1,120 1,758 1,343 224 (224) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 6 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg Despite selling pressure, the QSE Index managed to gain 1.6% from last week’s closing. Due to the flat line the Index is creating, technical indicators are losing signal. As a result, the Index might oscillate between the expected resistance level of 12,800 and the support level of 11,800. It should be noted that staying above the 11,800 level is paramount in order for the index to remain healthy over the medium to long term. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Page 5 of 6 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (June 04) % Change 5- Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 193.00 2.71 (9.35) 135,048 12.6 2.5 3.9 Qatar Islamic Bank 107.00 0.19 4.70 25,283 15.3 2.4 4.0 Commercial Bank of Qatar 54.90 1.67 (11.84) 17,932 10.0 1.1 5.8 Doha Bank 54.40 1.68 (4.56) 14,055 10.2 1.3 7.4 Al Ahli Bank 42.40 (8.82) (14.58) 7,705 12.4 1.9 3.0 Qatar International Islamic Bank 80.10 2.69 (1.96) 12,125 14.6 2.4 5.0 Masraf Al Rayan 46.40 4.27 4.98 34,800 16.7 3.3 3.8 Al Khaliji Bank 22.62 2.82 2.59 8,143 13.5 1.5 4.4 National Leasing 21.22 (0.05) 6.10 1,050 37.9 0.9 4.0 Dlala Holding 27.75 6.53 (17.01) 789 14.0 2.7 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 16.00 1.27 3.90 504 16.4 1.5 5.0 Islamic Holding Group 137.40 (1.65) 10.36 550 33.2 9.2 2.2 Banking and Financial Services 257,983 Zad Holding 99.10 0.00 17.98 1,296 11.7 1.6 4.0 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 17.39 (0.97) 71.33 201 N/A 1.2 N/A Salam International Investment 13.79 (0.07) (13.00) 1,576 19.7 1.0 4.4 Medicare Group 178.90 5.24 52.91 5,035 25.6 6.0 1.0 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 45.00 (1.42) 12.50 283 22.7 2.0 2.0 Qatar Fuel 173.00 0.12 (15.32) 14,611 12.8 2.4 5.2 Qatar Meat and Livestock 59.60 0.51 (1.32) 1,073 19.9 4.1 4.2 Al Meera Consumer Goods 242.10 6.42 21.05 4,842 21.0 3.9 3.7 Consumer Goods and Services 28,917 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 45.80 (1.51) 5.65 2,176 14.1 1.6 6.6 Qatar National Cement 120.00 (0.83) 0.00 6,481 15.6 2.6 3.0 Industries Qatar 139.50 4.03 (16.96) 84,398 14.8 2.8 5.0 Qatari Investors Group 53.30 2.30 28.74 6,627 28.7 3.0 1.4 Qatar Electricity and Water 225.90 6.06 20.48 24,849 15.3 4.0 3.3 Mannai Corp. 113.10 0.98 3.76 5,160 9.5 2.5 5.3 Aamal 15.20 7.12 5.07 9,576 16.2 1.4 6.3 Gulf International Services 80.10 3.76 (17.51) 14,886 9.4 4.2 6.9 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 24.90 (0.40) -15.6 31,282 21.7 2.4 4.4 Industrials 185,435 Qatar Insurance 97.50 (3.37) 23.76 18,001 18.3 3.2 2.2 Doha Insurance 26.20 (0.76) (9.66) 1,310 12.1 1.2 3.8 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 56.00 0.18 9.15 4,455 4.9 0.8 3.1 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 44.00 2.80 (0.39) 1,123 15.1 1.8 3.0 Qatar Islamic Insurance 82.80 (0.24) 4.81 1,242 14.8 4.4 4.8 Insurance 26,131 United Development 23.49 3.30 (0.42) 8,317 15.5 0.8 5.3 Barw a Real Estate 51.30 2.60 22.43 19,962 3.4 1.1 4.3 Ezdan Real Estate 17.05 (6.68) 14.28 45,225 31.8 1.5 2.3 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 18.80 (1.00) 3.08 1,974 11.4 1.5 1.5 Real Estate 75,479 Qatar Telecom 91.90 3.96 (25.83) 29,437 16.9 1.4 4.4 Vodafone Qatar 16.45 5.45 0.00 13,907 N/A 2.5 1.0 Telecoms 43,344 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 99.40 2.47 (0.10) 11,384 10.6 0.9 5.5 Gulf Warehousing 75.00 3.02 32.98 3,567 23.5 4.2 2.0 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 22.55 1.12 (2.38) 12,628 13.7 4.3 5.3 Transportation 27,579 Qatar Exchange 644,868
  • 6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6