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Page 1 of 7
Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index gained by 58.72 points, or
0.56% during the week to close at 10,629.13. Market capitalization
moved up by 0.16% to QR568.96 billion (bn) versus QR568.0bn at
the end of the previous week. Of the 44 listed companies, 23
companies ended the week higher, while 20 fell and 1 remained
unchanged. Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES) was the best performing
stock for the week with a gain of 12.0% on 4.9 million (mn) shares
traded. On the other hand, Gulf International Services (GISS) was the
worst performing stock with a decline of 8.6% on 1.4mn shares
traded.
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES), Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and Aamal Co.
(AHCS) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gain. BRES
was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase, adding
52.5 points to the index. MARK was the second biggest contributor to
the gains, tacking on 17.3 points to the index. Moreover, AHCS
contributed 15.6 points to the index. On the other hand, Industries
Qatar (IQCD) deleted only 19.7 points.
Trading value during the week increased by 29.18% to reach QR1.3bn
versus QR997.9mn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial
Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for
30.4% of the total trading value. The Real Estate sector was the
second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for
25.0% of the total trading value. BRES was the top value traded stock
during the week with total traded value of QR181.0mn.
Trading volume increased by 30.47% to reach 43.0mn shares versus
32.9mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions
increased by 19.68% to reach 17,436 transactions versus 14,569
transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading
volume, accounting for 31.2%, followed by the Telecoms sector,
which accounted for 26.4% of the overall trading volume. Vodafone
Qatar (VFQS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with
total traded volume of 11.0mn shares.
Foreign institutions turned bullish during the week with net buying of
QR7.0mn vs. net selling of QR126.4mn in the prior week. Qatari
institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR11.9mn vs. net
buying of QR65.6mn the week before. Foreign retail investors
remained bullish for the week with net buying of QR2.6mn vs. net
buying of QR9.7mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned
bearish with net selling of QR21.1mn vs. net buying of QR51.0mn the
week before. In 2017 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis)
~$55mn worth of Qatari equities.
Market Indicators
Week ended
Feb 09 , 2017
Week ended
Feb 02 , 2017
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 1,289.1 997.9 29.2
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 568,961.2 568,052.9 0.2
Volume (mn) 43.0 32.9 30.5
Number of Transactions 17,436 14,569 19.7
Companies Traded 43 43 0.0
Market Breadth 23:20 4:39 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 17,254.13 0.9 0.6 2.2
ALL Share Index 2,923.64 0.7 0.5 1.9
Banks and Financial Services 2,999.83 0.8 1.3 3.0
Industrials 3,263.20 (0.5) (1.1) (1.3)
Transportation 2,588.28 0.6 0.5 1.6
Real Estate 2,326.57 2.4 1.9 3.7
Insurance 4,346.62 0.7 (0.8) (2.0)
Telecoms 1,234.48 1.2 (0.3) 2.4
Consumer Goods & Services 6,236.45 (0.6) (0.6) 5.7
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,021.08 0.9 1.1 3.6
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QSE)* 10,629.13 0.6 0.3 1.8 354.03 156,236.8 15.4 1.6 3.8
Dubai 3,682.81 1.6 1.1 4.3 1,339.49 100,780.5# 12.3 1.3 3.6
Abu Dhabi 4,569.49 2.8 0.5 0.5 369.54 119,209.1 11.9 1.4 5.4
Saudi Arabia# 6,967.40 (1.8) (1.9) (3.4) 5,240.25 434,941.9 17.2 1.6 3.4
Kuwait 6,582.75 (3.8) (3.7) 14.5 804.14 96,116.5 22.6 1.2 3.6
Oman 5,819.52 0.3 0.8 0.6 41.25 23,374.2 10.8 1.2 4.9
Bahrain 1,306.83 (0.1) 0.2 7.1 23.57 20,404.1 9.4 0.4 4.3
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; #Data as of February 8, 2017)
10,596.39 10,609.64
10,584.94
10,653.83
10,629.13
0
9,000,000
18,000,000
10,540
10,600
10,660
5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb 9-Feb
Volume QSEIndex
2.8%
1.6%
0.6% 0.3%
(0.1%)
(1.7%)
(3.8%)
(4.0%)
(2.0%)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Qatar(QSE)*
Oman
Bahrain
SaudiArabia
Kuwait
Page 2 of 7
News
Economic, Market & Corporate News
 Initiating coverage on UDCD – QNBFS initiated coverage on United
Development Co. (UDCD) with a QR25.50/sh target price (TP)
and an Accumulate recommendation given a risk/reward profile
that is skewed to the upside. UDCD offers potential investors
exposure to the higher-end real estate market in Qatar through
the Pearl island (the Pearl) with a land package underpinning
future growth potential along with existing operations providing
stable cash flows. Adj. EBITDA/Net Income are expected to grow
in FY2016 by ~8%/9% y/y followed by ~13%/9% in FY2017.
The shares are attractive on valuation backed by a stabilizing and
strengthening macro environment supportive of encouraging
fundamentals for real estate prices. The shares are currently
trading at ~11.7x FY2017 adj. EBITDA and adj. EPS estimates
respectively, which are both at a ~15% discount to peers. UDCD is
expected to report FY2016 financials on February 7. (QNBFS
Research)
 UDCD’s 4Q2016 headline earnings beat our estimates on higher
than expected revenue (first look) – United Development
Company’s (UDCD) net profit for 4Q2016 came in at ~QR171mn
vs. our estimate of ~QR157mn (+9%) or EPS of QR0.48 vs. our
QR0.44. For the full year, headline earnings/EPS came in at
~QR623mn/QR1.76 vs. ~QR690mn/QR1.95 in FY2015 (-10%
y/y) reflecting the weakness in the real estate market that was
experienced in FY2016, which was mostly baked into the share
price. Despite the earnings beat, the shares could potentially come
under pressure at market open today given the lower-than-
expected dividend recommended by the Board of Directors of
QR1.25 vs. our QR1.50 (-17% y/y); FY2015 dividend was
QR1.50/sh. Should share weakness occur at market open, we
would be buyers of the shares as we expect sequential earnings
growth into FY2018 of ~8% annually but now with a more rapid
improvement in dividend payouts in FY2017 (~65% vs. ~78%)
and FY2018 (~60% vs. ~72%). We view this new dividend policy
as supportive of UDCD’s future growth plans. We await release of
the full financials to compare adjusted earnings and analyze the
performance of the company. (QNBFS Research, QSE, Gulf-
Times.com)
 IQCD posts QR230mn net profit in 3Q2016, well below our estimate
of QR908mn and Reuters consensus of QR903mn despite QR389mn
in one-off fertilizer impairments – Industries Qatar (IQCD) posted a
4Q2016 net profit of QR230mn. Reported net income included: (1)
QR314mn of impairment in Qatar Melamine Co. and (2) QR100mn
of impairment in a revamp project that was shelved. Excluding
these items, earnings would have still been weaker vs. estimates, at
QR619mn. Another reduction in dividends to QR4 a share. As we
had stated in our report dated January 26, 2017, we were expecting
a DPS of QR4.50 but we could not rule out a range of QR4-QR5 a
share in dividends; the company paid QR5 in DPS for 2015. With
QR11.3bn in cash and QR2.9bn in debt across the group at end-
2016, IQCD retains a strong balance sheet. The dividend cut could
be due to a potential expansion at QAPCO beginning this year.
Recommendation and valuation: We rate IQCD a Market Perform
with a price target of QR130.00. We expect the stock to be weak in
the near-term given 2016 results and the dividend cut. (Company
financials, QNBFS Research)
 GISS posts QR14mn in normalized net income for 4Q2016 –
Reported net income including a QR133mn write-off for the Al
Rayyan rig and a QR3mn loss (AFS and JV) was a significant
QR122mn. Results on an operating basis were more in line with
our estimates with revenue of QR674mn (-9% divergence), gross
profits of QR123mn (-2% divergence) and normalized EBITDA of
QR205mn (-11% divergence). DPS of QR1 was flat with 2015 and
in line with our estimate. This translates into a 3.5% yield. The
write-off of the Al-Rayyan rig was a surprise but all other 9
offshore rigs seem to be under contract (including one in
preparation as per contract) per the February rig report. The Al-
Rayyan rig was listed as warm stacked in the December rig report
but was written off. According to the company “the rig has been
off contract with Occidental Petroleum since March 15, 2015 and
the company was unable to market the rig since it does not meet
any customer specifications.” Despite this negative development,
we point out eight rigs have been listed as contracted per the
February rig report and one rig is under preparation as per
contract. This compares to only six rigs being under contract as of
end 2016. This should led to growth in the drilling segment in
2017. We continue to maintain our QR39 price target and
Outperform rating. GISS’ stock price improvement is hinged on a
resumption of confidence in company performance. With drilling
segment performance closely linked to oil prices, an expected
recovery in crude could help the stock price this year. (Company
financials, QNBFS Research)
 MPHC’s net profit rises to ~QR279mn in 4Q2016 – Mesaieed
Petrochemical Holding Company’s (MPHC) net profit increased to
~QR279mn in 4Q2016 as compared to ~QR226mn in 3Q2016.
For 2016, net profit declined 8% YoY to QR995mn, due to 7%
decline in selling prices despite improved sales volumes in the
midst of a challenging market. MPHC continued to benefit from
the supply of competitively priced ethane feedstock and fuel gas
under long-term supply agreements. These contractual
arrangements are an important value driver for the group
profitability in challenging market conditions. Earnings per share
(EPS) amounted to QR0.79 in 2016 as compared to QR0.87 in
2015. The board of directors of the company recommended a
dividend of QR0.6 per share for the period. The board also
approved to convene Ordinary and Extraordinary General
Assembly Meetings of the shareholders on March 6, 2017. (QSE,
Gulf-Times.com)
 CBQK changed the Board of Directors meeting – Commercial Bank
of Qatar (CBQK) announced that the bank’s Board of Directors’
will change their meeting which was previously scheduled to take
place on February 07, 2017 to February 21, 2017, to discuss the
financial statements for the period ending December 31, 2016.
Meanwhile, the new subscribed shares of CBQK have been
deposited into the investors’ accounts, the new capital is
QR(3,854,527,390), and the new total shares (385,452,739). The
new subscribed shares will be available for trading starting from
February 07, 2017. (QSE)
 QIBK to hold its AGM on February 21 – The Board of Directors of
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) announced the Assembly General
Meeting (AGM) which will be held on February 21, 2017. In case
of incomplete required quorum, another meeting will be held on
February 28, 2017. Some of the agenda of the meeting is approval
of the board of directors’ proposal to distribute 47.5% cash
dividends of the nominal value per share, i.e. QR4.75 per share.
Discussion of the proposal to increase the limit of the perpetual
Sukuk “Additional Tier 1 Capital (AT1) Sukuk” from QR5bn to
QR7.5bn. (QSE)
Page 3 of 7
Qatar Stock Exchange
Top Gainers Top Decliners
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
12.0%
7.0%
5.1%
4.1%
3.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Barwa Real
Estate
Qatar Islamic
Insurance
Aamal Doha Bank Commercial
Bank of Qatar
-8.6%
-3.8%
-2.7% -2.5% -2.4%
-9.0%
-6.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
Gulf International
Services
United
Development
Zad Holding Al Meera
Consumer Goods
Qatar First Bank
182.0
116.3
101.7 101.0
83.8
0.0
70.0
140.0
210.0
Barwa Real
Estate
Masraf Al Rayan Vodafone Qatar QNB Group Ezdan Real
Estate
11.0
5.5
4.9
2.8
2.1
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
Vodafone Qatar Ezdan Real
Estate
Barwa Real
Estate
Masraf Al Rayan Salam
International
Investment
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
38.83% 40.47%
25.73% 24.81%
10.63% 10.45%
24.82% 24.28%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
832
457
841
448
(9)
9
(200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
Page 4 of 7
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The Index closed end of week slightly in the green, gaining 0.56% (now at 10,629.13) for the week. We await stronger signals to help deciding the next move to
the Index; our support level remains at 10,500 and the resistance at the 11,500 level.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to
100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches
30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the
MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal
line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the
open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on
preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other),
and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer
looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Page 5 of 7
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name
Price
(February 09)
% Change
WTD
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 145.00 (2.74) (2.09) 133,928 11.0 2.5 2.2
Qatar Islamic Bank 108.40 2.26 4.33 25,614 12.6 1.8 3.9
Commercial Bank of Qatar 32.90 3.46 1.23 12,681 32.4 0.8 8.8
Doha Bank 38.10 4.10 9.17 9,844 11.8 1.0 7.9
Al Ahli Bank 36.50 1.39 (6.41) 6,964 11.1 1.6 4.1
Qatar International Islamic Bank 67.80 (0.29) 7.96 10,263 13.1 1.5 5.9
Masraf Al Rayan 41.50 1.72 10.37 31,125 15.1 2.4 4.2
Al Khalij Commercial Bank 16.20 (0.67) (4.71) 5,832 13.7 0.8 6.2
Qatar First Bank 9.52 (2.36) (7.57) 1,904 N/A 0.9 N/A
National Leasing 15.85 2.59 3.46 784 155.6 0.8 3.2
Dlala Holding 21.29 (0.05) (0.93) 605 155.1 2.3 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 10.34 2.89 3.92 326 28.4 1.0 5.8
Islamic Holding Group 57.00 (1.72) (6.56) 323 77.9 2.3 2.6
Banking and Financial Services 240,194
Zad Holding 86.00 (2.71) (3.59) 1,125 10.5 1.3 4.7
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 9.72 (1.82) (3.76) 112 N/A 1.1 N/A
Salam International Investment 11.95 2.22 8.14 1,366 12.0 0.8 8.4
Medicare Group 65.40 (0.76) 3.97 1,841 28.3 1.9 2.8
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 28.10 0.00 2.37 176 41.3 1.3 5.3
Qatar Fuel 158.70 (0.81) 9.15 14,476 12.6 2.1 4.8
Widam Food Co. 68.00 (1.88) 0.00 1,224 N/A 4.1 4.0
Mannai Corp. 84.40 1.44 5.50 3,850 7.7 1.5 5.9
Al Meera Consumer Goods 174.00 (2.52) (0.85) 3,480 22.0 2.6 5.2
Consumer Goods and Services 27,651
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 47.60 1.17 6.97 2,262 11.7 1.5 6.3
Qatar National Cement 92.50 1.20 7.56 5,496 11.6 1.8 3.9
Industries Qatar 113.50 (1.73) (3.40) 68,668 23.2 2.1 4.4
Qatari Investors Group 55.00 (0.90) (5.98) 6,838 24.7 2.7 2.3
Qatar Electricity and Water 225.00 1.35 (0.88) 24,750 16.1 3.0 3.3
Aamal 15.35 5.14 12.62 9,671 15.2 1.2 N/A
Gulf International Services 27.00 (8.63) (13.18) 5,018 75.9 1.3 3.7
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 15.31 (1.86) (3.10) 19,234 19.3 1.4 4.6
Industrials 141,935
Qatar Insurance 84.40 0.48 (0.47) 20,352 18.5 2.5 2.5
Doha Insurance 17.95 (1.91) (1.37) 898 12.4 0.8 5.6
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 41.00 1.23 (12.77) 3,588 3.7 0.6 3.3
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 20.24 0.20 (4.08) 517 17.5 1.0 4.9
Qatar Islamic Insurance 57.80 7.04 14.23 867 14.2 2.6 6.9
Insurance 26,221
United Development 21.50 (3.80) 4.12 7,613 12.2 0.7 7.0
Barw a Real Estate 38.40 11.95 15.49 14,942 9.3 0.8 5.7
Ezdan Real Estate 15.10 0.60 (0.07) 40,053 22.9 1.3 3.3
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 14.28 (0.90) (0.76) 1,574 16.7 1.1 N/A
Real Estate 64,182
Ooredoo 104.90 1.84 3.05 33,602 15.3 1.5 2.9
Vodafone Qatar 9.27 (1.90) (1.07) 7,837 N/A 1.7 N/A
Telecoms 41,438
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 94.10 0.86 (1.57) 10,777 11.9 0.8 5.3
Gulf Warehousing 54.60 1.11 (2.50) 3,200 15.3 2.1 2.9
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 24.12 0.29 4.46 13,363 13.8 3.5 5.2
Transportation 27,340
Qatar Exchange 568,961
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa
Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025
mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,
promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct
or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We
therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and
completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or
contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the
views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions
included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 6 of 7
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa
Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025
mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,
promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct
or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We
therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and
completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or
contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the
views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions
included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 7 of 7

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QNBFS Weekly Market Report February 9, 2017

  • 1. ` Page 1 of 7 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index gained by 58.72 points, or 0.56% during the week to close at 10,629.13. Market capitalization moved up by 0.16% to QR568.96 billion (bn) versus QR568.0bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 44 listed companies, 23 companies ended the week higher, while 20 fell and 1 remained unchanged. Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 12.0% on 4.9 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Gulf International Services (GISS) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 8.6% on 1.4mn shares traded. Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES), Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and Aamal Co. (AHCS) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gain. BRES was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase, adding 52.5 points to the index. MARK was the second biggest contributor to the gains, tacking on 17.3 points to the index. Moreover, AHCS contributed 15.6 points to the index. On the other hand, Industries Qatar (IQCD) deleted only 19.7 points. Trading value during the week increased by 29.18% to reach QR1.3bn versus QR997.9mn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 30.4% of the total trading value. The Real Estate sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 25.0% of the total trading value. BRES was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR181.0mn. Trading volume increased by 30.47% to reach 43.0mn shares versus 32.9mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions increased by 19.68% to reach 17,436 transactions versus 14,569 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 31.2%, followed by the Telecoms sector, which accounted for 26.4% of the overall trading volume. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 11.0mn shares. Foreign institutions turned bullish during the week with net buying of QR7.0mn vs. net selling of QR126.4mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR11.9mn vs. net buying of QR65.6mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bullish for the week with net buying of QR2.6mn vs. net buying of QR9.7mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bearish with net selling of QR21.1mn vs. net buying of QR51.0mn the week before. In 2017 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$55mn worth of Qatari equities. Market Indicators Week ended Feb 09 , 2017 Week ended Feb 02 , 2017 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,289.1 997.9 29.2 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 568,961.2 568,052.9 0.2 Volume (mn) 43.0 32.9 30.5 Number of Transactions 17,436 14,569 19.7 Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 23:20 4:39 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 17,254.13 0.9 0.6 2.2 ALL Share Index 2,923.64 0.7 0.5 1.9 Banks and Financial Services 2,999.83 0.8 1.3 3.0 Industrials 3,263.20 (0.5) (1.1) (1.3) Transportation 2,588.28 0.6 0.5 1.6 Real Estate 2,326.57 2.4 1.9 3.7 Insurance 4,346.62 0.7 (0.8) (2.0) Telecoms 1,234.48 1.2 (0.3) 2.4 Consumer Goods & Services 6,236.45 (0.6) (0.6) 5.7 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,021.08 0.9 1.1 3.6 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 10,629.13 0.6 0.3 1.8 354.03 156,236.8 15.4 1.6 3.8 Dubai 3,682.81 1.6 1.1 4.3 1,339.49 100,780.5# 12.3 1.3 3.6 Abu Dhabi 4,569.49 2.8 0.5 0.5 369.54 119,209.1 11.9 1.4 5.4 Saudi Arabia# 6,967.40 (1.8) (1.9) (3.4) 5,240.25 434,941.9 17.2 1.6 3.4 Kuwait 6,582.75 (3.8) (3.7) 14.5 804.14 96,116.5 22.6 1.2 3.6 Oman 5,819.52 0.3 0.8 0.6 41.25 23,374.2 10.8 1.2 4.9 Bahrain 1,306.83 (0.1) 0.2 7.1 23.57 20,404.1 9.4 0.4 4.3 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; #Data as of February 8, 2017) 10,596.39 10,609.64 10,584.94 10,653.83 10,629.13 0 9,000,000 18,000,000 10,540 10,600 10,660 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb 9-Feb Volume QSEIndex 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% (0.1%) (1.7%) (3.8%) (4.0%) (2.0%) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% AbuDhabi Dubai Qatar(QSE)* Oman Bahrain SaudiArabia Kuwait
  • 2. Page 2 of 7 News Economic, Market & Corporate News  Initiating coverage on UDCD – QNBFS initiated coverage on United Development Co. (UDCD) with a QR25.50/sh target price (TP) and an Accumulate recommendation given a risk/reward profile that is skewed to the upside. UDCD offers potential investors exposure to the higher-end real estate market in Qatar through the Pearl island (the Pearl) with a land package underpinning future growth potential along with existing operations providing stable cash flows. Adj. EBITDA/Net Income are expected to grow in FY2016 by ~8%/9% y/y followed by ~13%/9% in FY2017. The shares are attractive on valuation backed by a stabilizing and strengthening macro environment supportive of encouraging fundamentals for real estate prices. The shares are currently trading at ~11.7x FY2017 adj. EBITDA and adj. EPS estimates respectively, which are both at a ~15% discount to peers. UDCD is expected to report FY2016 financials on February 7. (QNBFS Research)  UDCD’s 4Q2016 headline earnings beat our estimates on higher than expected revenue (first look) – United Development Company’s (UDCD) net profit for 4Q2016 came in at ~QR171mn vs. our estimate of ~QR157mn (+9%) or EPS of QR0.48 vs. our QR0.44. For the full year, headline earnings/EPS came in at ~QR623mn/QR1.76 vs. ~QR690mn/QR1.95 in FY2015 (-10% y/y) reflecting the weakness in the real estate market that was experienced in FY2016, which was mostly baked into the share price. Despite the earnings beat, the shares could potentially come under pressure at market open today given the lower-than- expected dividend recommended by the Board of Directors of QR1.25 vs. our QR1.50 (-17% y/y); FY2015 dividend was QR1.50/sh. Should share weakness occur at market open, we would be buyers of the shares as we expect sequential earnings growth into FY2018 of ~8% annually but now with a more rapid improvement in dividend payouts in FY2017 (~65% vs. ~78%) and FY2018 (~60% vs. ~72%). We view this new dividend policy as supportive of UDCD’s future growth plans. We await release of the full financials to compare adjusted earnings and analyze the performance of the company. (QNBFS Research, QSE, Gulf- Times.com)  IQCD posts QR230mn net profit in 3Q2016, well below our estimate of QR908mn and Reuters consensus of QR903mn despite QR389mn in one-off fertilizer impairments – Industries Qatar (IQCD) posted a 4Q2016 net profit of QR230mn. Reported net income included: (1) QR314mn of impairment in Qatar Melamine Co. and (2) QR100mn of impairment in a revamp project that was shelved. Excluding these items, earnings would have still been weaker vs. estimates, at QR619mn. Another reduction in dividends to QR4 a share. As we had stated in our report dated January 26, 2017, we were expecting a DPS of QR4.50 but we could not rule out a range of QR4-QR5 a share in dividends; the company paid QR5 in DPS for 2015. With QR11.3bn in cash and QR2.9bn in debt across the group at end- 2016, IQCD retains a strong balance sheet. The dividend cut could be due to a potential expansion at QAPCO beginning this year. Recommendation and valuation: We rate IQCD a Market Perform with a price target of QR130.00. We expect the stock to be weak in the near-term given 2016 results and the dividend cut. (Company financials, QNBFS Research)  GISS posts QR14mn in normalized net income for 4Q2016 – Reported net income including a QR133mn write-off for the Al Rayyan rig and a QR3mn loss (AFS and JV) was a significant QR122mn. Results on an operating basis were more in line with our estimates with revenue of QR674mn (-9% divergence), gross profits of QR123mn (-2% divergence) and normalized EBITDA of QR205mn (-11% divergence). DPS of QR1 was flat with 2015 and in line with our estimate. This translates into a 3.5% yield. The write-off of the Al-Rayyan rig was a surprise but all other 9 offshore rigs seem to be under contract (including one in preparation as per contract) per the February rig report. The Al- Rayyan rig was listed as warm stacked in the December rig report but was written off. According to the company “the rig has been off contract with Occidental Petroleum since March 15, 2015 and the company was unable to market the rig since it does not meet any customer specifications.” Despite this negative development, we point out eight rigs have been listed as contracted per the February rig report and one rig is under preparation as per contract. This compares to only six rigs being under contract as of end 2016. This should led to growth in the drilling segment in 2017. We continue to maintain our QR39 price target and Outperform rating. GISS’ stock price improvement is hinged on a resumption of confidence in company performance. With drilling segment performance closely linked to oil prices, an expected recovery in crude could help the stock price this year. (Company financials, QNBFS Research)  MPHC’s net profit rises to ~QR279mn in 4Q2016 – Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company’s (MPHC) net profit increased to ~QR279mn in 4Q2016 as compared to ~QR226mn in 3Q2016. For 2016, net profit declined 8% YoY to QR995mn, due to 7% decline in selling prices despite improved sales volumes in the midst of a challenging market. MPHC continued to benefit from the supply of competitively priced ethane feedstock and fuel gas under long-term supply agreements. These contractual arrangements are an important value driver for the group profitability in challenging market conditions. Earnings per share (EPS) amounted to QR0.79 in 2016 as compared to QR0.87 in 2015. The board of directors of the company recommended a dividend of QR0.6 per share for the period. The board also approved to convene Ordinary and Extraordinary General Assembly Meetings of the shareholders on March 6, 2017. (QSE, Gulf-Times.com)  CBQK changed the Board of Directors meeting – Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK) announced that the bank’s Board of Directors’ will change their meeting which was previously scheduled to take place on February 07, 2017 to February 21, 2017, to discuss the financial statements for the period ending December 31, 2016. Meanwhile, the new subscribed shares of CBQK have been deposited into the investors’ accounts, the new capital is QR(3,854,527,390), and the new total shares (385,452,739). The new subscribed shares will be available for trading starting from February 07, 2017. (QSE)  QIBK to hold its AGM on February 21 – The Board of Directors of Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) announced the Assembly General Meeting (AGM) which will be held on February 21, 2017. In case of incomplete required quorum, another meeting will be held on February 28, 2017. Some of the agenda of the meeting is approval of the board of directors’ proposal to distribute 47.5% cash dividends of the nominal value per share, i.e. QR4.75 per share. Discussion of the proposal to increase the limit of the perpetual Sukuk “Additional Tier 1 Capital (AT1) Sukuk” from QR5bn to QR7.5bn. (QSE)
  • 3. Page 3 of 7 Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 12.0% 7.0% 5.1% 4.1% 3.5% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Barwa Real Estate Qatar Islamic Insurance Aamal Doha Bank Commercial Bank of Qatar -8.6% -3.8% -2.7% -2.5% -2.4% -9.0% -6.0% -3.0% 0.0% Gulf International Services United Development Zad Holding Al Meera Consumer Goods Qatar First Bank 182.0 116.3 101.7 101.0 83.8 0.0 70.0 140.0 210.0 Barwa Real Estate Masraf Al Rayan Vodafone Qatar QNB Group Ezdan Real Estate 11.0 5.5 4.9 2.8 2.1 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 Vodafone Qatar Ezdan Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Masraf Al Rayan Salam International Investment 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 38.83% 40.47% 25.73% 24.81% 10.63% 10.45% 24.82% 24.28% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 832 457 841 448 (9) 9 (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 7 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The Index closed end of week slightly in the green, gaining 0.56% (now at 10,629.13) for the week. We await stronger signals to help deciding the next move to the Index; our support level remains at 10,500 and the resistance at the 11,500 level. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Page 5 of 7 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (February 09) % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 145.00 (2.74) (2.09) 133,928 11.0 2.5 2.2 Qatar Islamic Bank 108.40 2.26 4.33 25,614 12.6 1.8 3.9 Commercial Bank of Qatar 32.90 3.46 1.23 12,681 32.4 0.8 8.8 Doha Bank 38.10 4.10 9.17 9,844 11.8 1.0 7.9 Al Ahli Bank 36.50 1.39 (6.41) 6,964 11.1 1.6 4.1 Qatar International Islamic Bank 67.80 (0.29) 7.96 10,263 13.1 1.5 5.9 Masraf Al Rayan 41.50 1.72 10.37 31,125 15.1 2.4 4.2 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 16.20 (0.67) (4.71) 5,832 13.7 0.8 6.2 Qatar First Bank 9.52 (2.36) (7.57) 1,904 N/A 0.9 N/A National Leasing 15.85 2.59 3.46 784 155.6 0.8 3.2 Dlala Holding 21.29 (0.05) (0.93) 605 155.1 2.3 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 10.34 2.89 3.92 326 28.4 1.0 5.8 Islamic Holding Group 57.00 (1.72) (6.56) 323 77.9 2.3 2.6 Banking and Financial Services 240,194 Zad Holding 86.00 (2.71) (3.59) 1,125 10.5 1.3 4.7 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 9.72 (1.82) (3.76) 112 N/A 1.1 N/A Salam International Investment 11.95 2.22 8.14 1,366 12.0 0.8 8.4 Medicare Group 65.40 (0.76) 3.97 1,841 28.3 1.9 2.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 28.10 0.00 2.37 176 41.3 1.3 5.3 Qatar Fuel 158.70 (0.81) 9.15 14,476 12.6 2.1 4.8 Widam Food Co. 68.00 (1.88) 0.00 1,224 N/A 4.1 4.0 Mannai Corp. 84.40 1.44 5.50 3,850 7.7 1.5 5.9 Al Meera Consumer Goods 174.00 (2.52) (0.85) 3,480 22.0 2.6 5.2 Consumer Goods and Services 27,651 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 47.60 1.17 6.97 2,262 11.7 1.5 6.3 Qatar National Cement 92.50 1.20 7.56 5,496 11.6 1.8 3.9 Industries Qatar 113.50 (1.73) (3.40) 68,668 23.2 2.1 4.4 Qatari Investors Group 55.00 (0.90) (5.98) 6,838 24.7 2.7 2.3 Qatar Electricity and Water 225.00 1.35 (0.88) 24,750 16.1 3.0 3.3 Aamal 15.35 5.14 12.62 9,671 15.2 1.2 N/A Gulf International Services 27.00 (8.63) (13.18) 5,018 75.9 1.3 3.7 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 15.31 (1.86) (3.10) 19,234 19.3 1.4 4.6 Industrials 141,935 Qatar Insurance 84.40 0.48 (0.47) 20,352 18.5 2.5 2.5 Doha Insurance 17.95 (1.91) (1.37) 898 12.4 0.8 5.6 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 41.00 1.23 (12.77) 3,588 3.7 0.6 3.3 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 20.24 0.20 (4.08) 517 17.5 1.0 4.9 Qatar Islamic Insurance 57.80 7.04 14.23 867 14.2 2.6 6.9 Insurance 26,221 United Development 21.50 (3.80) 4.12 7,613 12.2 0.7 7.0 Barw a Real Estate 38.40 11.95 15.49 14,942 9.3 0.8 5.7 Ezdan Real Estate 15.10 0.60 (0.07) 40,053 22.9 1.3 3.3 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 14.28 (0.90) (0.76) 1,574 16.7 1.1 N/A Real Estate 64,182 Ooredoo 104.90 1.84 3.05 33,602 15.3 1.5 2.9 Vodafone Qatar 9.27 (1.90) (1.07) 7,837 N/A 1.7 N/A Telecoms 41,438 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 94.10 0.86 (1.57) 10,777 11.9 0.8 5.3 Gulf Warehousing 54.60 1.11 (2.50) 3,200 15.3 2.1 2.9 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 24.12 0.29 4.46 13,363 13.8 3.5 5.2 Transportation 27,340 Qatar Exchange 568,961
  • 6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025 mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 7
  • 7. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025 mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 7 of 7