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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Thursday, 17 September 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price 1
st
Target
QIBK 115.60 118.00
IHGS 115.00 110.00
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,558.13 0.47 4.5
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 11,760 11,900 12,000
Support 11,500 11,300 11,100
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
The QSE Index came back into the old
symmetrical triangle area, which extends
from 11,500 to 11,900 points. Having the
Index back in this triangle is a neutral sign,
but we fear another breach below the
lower level. Such rupture could shake
what is left in traders’ confidence in the
market and they might further reduce their
winning positions.
Expected Resistance Level: 11,760
Expected Support Level: 11,500
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 16 Sep 15 Sep %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 204.5 199.3 2.6
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 609.6 605.6 0.7
Volume (mn) 5.4 5.2 3.8
Number of Trans. 3,589 3,286 9.2
Companies Traded 41 42 -2.4
Market Breadth 27:9 17:21 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 17,965.46 0.5 51.4
All Share Index 3,071.61 0.6 50.8
Banks 3,141.95 1.1 55.4
Industrials 3,495.34 0.2 44.8
Transportation 2,454.12 0.5 56.0
Real Estate 2,662.57 0.3 51.5
Insurance 4,561.35 0.0 44.9
Telecoms 997.54 0.1 50.8
Consumer 6,651.95 0.3 41.7
Al Rayan Islamic 4,384.35 0.3 47.9
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6
QIBK
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 115.60 -0.34 60,047
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 116.00 118.00 119.00
Support 113.00 110.00 108.00
Commentary
Overview:
The Shari’ah compliant bank is in a
correction mode over the past four
sessions. It could stop around the current
levels and bounce up again; both MACD
indicators on the daily and the hourly
charts are above the zero line. Traders
should be ready once the below trigger is
confirmed.
Expected Target Price: QR118.00 –
QR119.00
A price breakaway above QR116.00
triggers the buy recommendation.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR113.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6
IHGS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 115.00 -1.29 20,517
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 120.00 123.00 129.00
Support 115.00 110.00 109.20
Commentary
Overview:
IHGS added over 34% since its previous
dip, yet it has been trading below its
moving averages. On the daily chart, the
MACD is below zero and just broke the
zero line on the hourly chart. When the
MACD is breaking below zero, it indicates
more bearish momentum could be in the
making.
Expected Price Retreat: QR110.00 –
QR109.20
A price breach below QR115.00 triggers
the sell recommendation.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6
Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,558.13 11,439.26 11,474.03 11,495.51 11,530.28 11,565.05 11,586.53 11,621.30 11,632.05 11,897.35 11,980.60
Total Return 17,965.46 17,780.69 17,834.73 17,868.12 17,922.16 17,976.20 18,009.59 18,063.63 18,080.35 18,490.98 18,382.11
All Share 3,071.61 3,038.50 3,047.99 3,053.85 3,063.33 3,072.82 3,078.68 3,088.16 3,105.73 3,177.42 3,160.90
Al Rayan Islamic 4,384.35 4,348.88 4,359.63 4,366.27 4,377.03 4,387.78 4,394.42 4,405.18 4,496.78 4,586.14 4,411.93
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 43.50 42.87 43.06 43.18 43.37 43.56 43.68 43.87 43.91 45.23 45.78
CBQK 55.50 54.97 55.16 55.28 55.47 55.66 55.78 55.97 55.81 55.67 58.17
DHBK 50.00 49.07 49.49 49.75 50.17 50.59 50.85 51.27 52.15 53.12 54.04
QIBK 115.60 114.53 114.92 115.15 115.53 115.92 116.15 116.53 110.35 108.00 105.09
QIIK 75.30 74.50 74.84 75.06 75.40 75.74 75.96 76.30 76.94 78.45 79.94
Insurance
QATI 94.00 93.60 93.71 93.79 93.90 94.01 94.09 94.20 97.90 95.59 86.11
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 163.90 163.77 163.84 163.89 163.97 164.04 164.09 164.17 174.63 176.46 155.55
Industrials
IQCD 128.70 126.63 127.28 127.68 128.33 128.98 129.38 130.03 132.39 136.74 144.80
QEWS 215.00 211.13 212.24 212.93 214.03 215.14 215.83 216.93 216.21 217.06 203.53
GISS 60.50 59.10 59.52 59.78 60.20 60.62 60.88 61.30 66.57 74.07 84.27
QIGD 47.15 46.12 46.58 46.86 47.32 47.78 48.06 48.52 49.00 50.67 45.82
Real Estate
BRES 43.25 42.82 42.97 43.06 43.22 43.37 43.46 43.62 46.82 49.04 47.37
UDCD 23.36 22.89 23.06 23.16 23.34 23.51 23.61 23.79 24.36 24.02 23.63
ERES 18.60 18.28 18.39 18.46 18.57 18.68 18.75 18.86 17.94 18.01 16.84
MRDS 16.00 15.91 15.96 15.99 16.05 16.10 16.13 16.19 17.17 18.07 18.20
Telecommunication
ORDS 74.30 73.50 73.96 74.24 74.70 75.16 75.44 75.90 76.58 84.62 97.99
VFQS 13.55 13.35 13.45 13.51 13.61 13.71 13.77 13.87 14.89 15.90 16.32
Transportation
QGTS 22.38 22.07 22.18 22.25 22.36 22.47 22.54 22.65 21.99 22.24 22.74
QNNS 98.30 97.10 97.67 98.03 98.60 99.17 99.53 100.10 97.22 97.87 98.87
Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6
Contacts:
Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer,
promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We
therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that
QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy
and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or
contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the
views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included
in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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17 September Daily technical trader

  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader – Qatar Thursday, 17 September 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price 1 st Target QIBK 115.60 118.00 IHGS 115.00 110.00 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 11,558.13 0.47 4.5 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 11,760 11,900 12,000 Support 11,500 11,300 11,100 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The QSE Index came back into the old symmetrical triangle area, which extends from 11,500 to 11,900 points. Having the Index back in this triangle is a neutral sign, but we fear another breach below the lower level. Such rupture could shake what is left in traders’ confidence in the market and they might further reduce their winning positions. Expected Resistance Level: 11,760 Expected Support Level: 11,500 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 16 Sep 15 Sep %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 204.5 199.3 2.6 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 609.6 605.6 0.7 Volume (mn) 5.4 5.2 3.8 Number of Trans. 3,589 3,286 9.2 Companies Traded 41 42 -2.4 Market Breadth 27:9 17:21 – QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 17,965.46 0.5 51.4 All Share Index 3,071.61 0.6 50.8 Banks 3,141.95 1.1 55.4 Industrials 3,495.34 0.2 44.8 Transportation 2,454.12 0.5 56.0 Real Estate 2,662.57 0.3 51.5 Insurance 4,561.35 0.0 44.9 Telecoms 997.54 0.1 50.8 Consumer 6,651.95 0.3 41.7 Al Rayan Islamic 4,384.35 0.3 47.9 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 QIBK Price % Ch. Volume Last 115.60 -0.34 60,047 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 116.00 118.00 119.00 Support 113.00 110.00 108.00 Commentary Overview: The Shari’ah compliant bank is in a correction mode over the past four sessions. It could stop around the current levels and bounce up again; both MACD indicators on the daily and the hourly charts are above the zero line. Traders should be ready once the below trigger is confirmed. Expected Target Price: QR118.00 – QR119.00 A price breakaway above QR116.00 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR113.00 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 IHGS Price % Ch. Volume Last 115.00 -1.29 20,517 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 120.00 123.00 129.00 Support 115.00 110.00 109.20 Commentary Overview: IHGS added over 34% since its previous dip, yet it has been trading below its moving averages. On the daily chart, the MACD is below zero and just broke the zero line on the hourly chart. When the MACD is breaking below zero, it indicates more bearish momentum could be in the making. Expected Price Retreat: QR110.00 – QR109.20 A price breach below QR115.00 triggers the sell recommendation. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 11,558.13 11,439.26 11,474.03 11,495.51 11,530.28 11,565.05 11,586.53 11,621.30 11,632.05 11,897.35 11,980.60 Total Return 17,965.46 17,780.69 17,834.73 17,868.12 17,922.16 17,976.20 18,009.59 18,063.63 18,080.35 18,490.98 18,382.11 All Share 3,071.61 3,038.50 3,047.99 3,053.85 3,063.33 3,072.82 3,078.68 3,088.16 3,105.73 3,177.42 3,160.90 Al Rayan Islamic 4,384.35 4,348.88 4,359.63 4,366.27 4,377.03 4,387.78 4,394.42 4,405.18 4,496.78 4,586.14 4,411.93 Banks & Financials Services MARK 43.50 42.87 43.06 43.18 43.37 43.56 43.68 43.87 43.91 45.23 45.78 CBQK 55.50 54.97 55.16 55.28 55.47 55.66 55.78 55.97 55.81 55.67 58.17 DHBK 50.00 49.07 49.49 49.75 50.17 50.59 50.85 51.27 52.15 53.12 54.04 QIBK 115.60 114.53 114.92 115.15 115.53 115.92 116.15 116.53 110.35 108.00 105.09 QIIK 75.30 74.50 74.84 75.06 75.40 75.74 75.96 76.30 76.94 78.45 79.94 Insurance QATI 94.00 93.60 93.71 93.79 93.90 94.01 94.09 94.20 97.90 95.59 86.11 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 163.90 163.77 163.84 163.89 163.97 164.04 164.09 164.17 174.63 176.46 155.55 Industrials IQCD 128.70 126.63 127.28 127.68 128.33 128.98 129.38 130.03 132.39 136.74 144.80 QEWS 215.00 211.13 212.24 212.93 214.03 215.14 215.83 216.93 216.21 217.06 203.53 GISS 60.50 59.10 59.52 59.78 60.20 60.62 60.88 61.30 66.57 74.07 84.27 QIGD 47.15 46.12 46.58 46.86 47.32 47.78 48.06 48.52 49.00 50.67 45.82 Real Estate BRES 43.25 42.82 42.97 43.06 43.22 43.37 43.46 43.62 46.82 49.04 47.37 UDCD 23.36 22.89 23.06 23.16 23.34 23.51 23.61 23.79 24.36 24.02 23.63 ERES 18.60 18.28 18.39 18.46 18.57 18.68 18.75 18.86 17.94 18.01 16.84 MRDS 16.00 15.91 15.96 15.99 16.05 16.10 16.13 16.19 17.17 18.07 18.20 Telecommunication ORDS 74.30 73.50 73.96 74.24 74.70 75.16 75.44 75.90 76.58 84.62 97.99 VFQS 13.55 13.35 13.45 13.51 13.61 13.71 13.77 13.87 14.89 15.90 16.32 Transportation QGTS 22.38 22.07 22.18 22.25 22.36 22.47 22.54 22.65 21.99 22.24 22.74 QNNS 98.30 97.10 97.67 98.03 98.60 99.17 99.53 100.10 97.22 97.87 98.87 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  • 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  • 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts: Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.